Who's Unhappy About Higher Wages, Stronger Currency in China? The Japanese. For Starters
It stands to reason that Japanese car makers would rejoice over rising wages in competing China and over an appreciating Chinese currency. Rising wages make production there more expensive, a rising Yuan makes exports more expensive. Both should give the Japanese more breathing room. That reasoning is falling by the wayside. The Nikkei [sub] reports that these developments pose ”serious threats to Toyota’s profitability in China, strategic challenges that other Japanese companies must also deal with.” Just goes to show that you need to be careful what you wish for. And wait who else should worry.
As chronicled here, Honda and Toyota had to stop the lines because they were left partless by strikes at some of their parts makers.
Over the weekend, the world joined a chorus of “ding-dong, the peg is dead” , after – in a lead-up to the G20 summit – China announced it would be a bit more lenient with their Yuan/Dollar valuation. Today, the USD/CNY official mid-rate stands at 6.7980 vs 6.8275 yesterday, a breathtaking 0.5 percent “bounce.”
So why would that bother the Japanese? Says the Nikkei: “The price of new cars in China is similar to that of Japan. This translates to fat profit margins in China — now the world’s largest auto market — thanks to lower production costs. But rising wages are likely to reduce those margins, warned a Toyota executive.”
That’s just the beginning. Many parts used in worldwide production are made in China. Rising wages and a stronger Chinese currency make those parts more expensive abroad. This is not just a Japanese concern. What’s more, a stronger Yuan makes it cheaper for Chinese companies to import the latest manufacturing machinery from abroad, strengthening their competitive posture in the long run. Students of economic history will remember Germany and Japan.
Foreign automakers with joint ventures in China have short term reasons to be worried. Exports amount to one third of China’s GDP. A stronger currency and higher wages make Chinese exports less competitive in international markets. A more frigid business climate will most certainly result in a cooling-off of China’s red-hot auto market.
“The booming sales that continued until March have gone,” said a Toyota dealer to the Nikkei. “Sales growth could slow further if falls in exports choke economic growth.”
If you think that’s a great problem for Toyota to have, think again: Guess who’s also unhappy about higher wages and a stronger currency in China? General Motors. GM sells more cars in China than in the U.S. The Europeans can take a more sanguine posture: The Euro had dropped so much in value against major currencies that they can shrug off wage increases and an 0.5 percent rise in the Yuan. Volkswagen will “significantly exceed” last year’s results, mostly because of China. One country’s depression is the other country’s euphoria.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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On the other hand, car companies will make more profits per car if Chinese currency is appreciating. Lets say GM sells cars in Yuans and makes the equivalent of $2,000 per car in 2010; if Yuan increases by 20%, GM will make 2000 * 1.2 = $2,400 in 2011. Also if purchasing power increases in China, Chineses will have more money to purchase cars. The only entity that is screwed is the US Treasury; who will then purchase its Bonds?
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