The Truth About JD Power's 2010 Vehicle Dependability Survey

Michael Karesh
by Michael Karesh

I conduct a car reliability survey at TrueDelta.com. Since we promptly update our results four times a year, we can report on new models ahead of anyone else. Last year, we announced that the 2009 Jaguar XF was faring poorly. This provoked a blistering backlash from owners at a particular Jaguar forum. In the end, threads on reliability were deleted and future ones all but banned in the interest of preserving what remained of the UK auto industry.

The outraged owners argued that TrueDelta’s results could not be correct, since Jaguar had just been declared the most dependable make by J.D. Power. I pointed out that the VDS covers the third year of ownership, 2006 in that case, and that Jaguar had discontinued, redesigned, or replaced every model in its line save the XJ in the interim. So the results did not apply to the XF, or the current XK for that matter.

Well, J.D. Power has now released the 2010 Vehicle Dependability Survey (VDS), which covers 2007s in their third year of ownership, and, as predicted, the redesigned XK has, all by its lonesome, sunk Jaguar’s ranking from 1st to 23rd. And it’ll only get uglier once the XF is reflected in these stats in another two years.

#1 this year: Porsche. Many people will wonder how Porsche fared so well. One likely factor: Porsches are often weekend cars that aren’t driven much. J.D. Power might consider doing what TrueDelta does, and post average odometer readings. A larger factor: THERE WAS NO 2007 CAYENNE—Porsche skipped straight from 2006 to 2008. The Cayenne is likely more troublesome than the sports cars, and is certainly driven more. So don’t expect a top VDS score for Porsche next year, when the Cayenne is again part of the mix.

“Long term” for J.D. Power continues to mean “the third year of ownership.” It used to mean the fifth year, but manufacturers have little use for fifth-year data, and this survey primarily exists to serve manufacturers willing to pay large sums for detailed results.

Many car buyers, though, are much more interested in how cars fare after the 3/36 warranty ends. J.D. Power has no information for them, hoping that car buyers will accept third-year problem frequencies as a sufficient indicator of how a car will perform over the long haul. Unfortunately, in many cases it is not. TrueDelta’s data suggest that all too often cars take a turn for the worse either soon after the warranty ends or after 100,000 miles.

As usual, the public gets brand-level scores rather than model-level scores from J.D. Power. Brand-level scores are of limited use for a car buyer, and can actually misinform as much as they inform. After all, people don’t buy the entire line. They buy a particular model. And the scores of models can vary widely within a brand.

Much is made of which brands did better this year (Porsche, Lincoln), and which did worse (Jaguar). Well, as noted above, the brand averages can be heavily influenced by the introduction of a single new design or the absence of a single old design.

For these and other reasons a focus on model-level scores would be much more valid and useful.

Also worth noting: as in the past most makes are tightly bunched around the average, 155 problems per 100 cars this year. Consumer Reports considers any score within 20 percent of the average in its own survey to be “about average.” Applying this metric to J.D. Power’s results, 21 of the 36 brands are “about average.”

J.D. Power notes that for Cadillac, Ford, Hyundai, Lincoln, and Mercury perceptions of reliability lag reality. No surprise, since (as I’ve found all too often) people often judge (and more often than not reject) data based on how these data fit their perceptions rather than judging their perceptions based on how they fit the data.

J.D. Power’s explicit solution: convince consumers of gains in reliability. The implicit solution: pay to include VDS results in your ads. But are perceptions based on the VDS any more likely to be correct? Or, as seen in the Porsche and Jaguar cases, are they just as often part of the problem?

Michael Karesh owns and operates TrueDelta, an online source of vehicle pricing and reliability data

Michael Karesh
Michael Karesh

Michael Karesh lives in West Bloomfield, Michigan, with his wife and three children. In 2003 he received a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. While in Chicago he worked at the National Opinion Research Center, a leader in the field of survey research. For his doctoral thesis, he spent a year-and-a-half inside an automaker studying how and how well it understood consumers when developing new products. While pursuing the degree he taught consumer behavior and product development at Oakland University. Since 1999, he has contributed auto reviews to Epinions, where he is currently one of two people in charge of the autos section. Since earning the degree he has continued to care for his children (school, gymnastics, tae-kwan-do...) and write reviews for Epinions and, more recently, The Truth About Cars while developing TrueDelta, a vehicle reliability and price comparison site.

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  • Maverick Maverick on Mar 19, 2010

    With all due respect, Micheal Karesh and his TrueDelta website are trying to be a legitimate competitor to J.D. Power, therefore all of his criticism should be taken with a grain of salt. It is patently silly to compare J.D. Power data to TrueDelta. Two different approaches completely. One is legitimate market research while the other is a online panel of self-selected people who signed up for a website.

  • Distantarray Distantarray on May 11, 2010

    also don't forget the details either, average porsche driver drives 5k miles a year, average camry driver drives 12k miles a year, but also remember that you can be 100% sure that more porsches are garaged and more properly maintained than camry's. Porsches require high octane, and probably gets full synthetic oils on oil change and porsche owners probably never miss oil changes every 3k miles / 6months period either. I have 1998 Camry with 150k + miles on it, surprisingly enough even though it's been in a few small accidents (just cosmetics) I haven't had to change 1 part of the car to keep it running on the road. I've even gone 10k miles before an oil change before! I like to see a Porsche survive 10k mile on the same oil..... the thought would probably make a porsche owner have nightmares for weeks. Only things I've ever done was the factory recommended timing belt change which also includes the water pump done at a toyota dealership at 120k miles (90k recommended), and changed the spark plugs. Shamefully enough I've still yet changed ANY of the fluids besides the oil .... still running perfectly on all factory fluids. I haven't even had a need to do small things like getting the injectors cleaned. only non factory parts on the car honestly are ngk sparkplugs, and k&n air filter, and heavy duty oil filter from fram. I don't know if this has anything to do with it, but I use nothing but premium gas (even though it's not recommended) and always use mobil 1 full synthetic oil, and K&N or Fram oil filters. I also abuse my car quite a lot to be honest, like taking the car out in category 2 and 3 level hurricanes (Florida) and getting a decent speed and trying to the car sideways and doing donuts in the parking lot of a college, and even going tray sliding in the past in the Camry. Only things that have gone wrong in the car is. 1. dash lights went out (probably my fault happened when I self installed a stereo) 2. driver side window regulator died 3. plastic door handles broke inside the car 4. heater died. It's nice to know after how much I've abused my car it still runs in tip top shape, I think the amusing part is people tend to over-rate my mechanic abilities because I do small things myself, but honestly haven't had to do anything to keep it running, the car is just THAT good.

    • Hydro1212 Hydro1212 on Jul 28, 2011

      Actually the biggest factor isnt that the car is so good as it is used all the time. Fresh gas is always in your tank, engine is always lubricated, battery charged. Pretty simple. Trust me a Porsche can easily go 15k miles without an oil change. If you think you have some superior design in your camry, i feel sorry for you. Its got pistons and rings sliding against a cylinder wall... same as the Porsche. On the contrary ... if the camry wasnt used as much , problems would almost certainly crop up. Funny how that works , isnt it?

  • Ajla On the Mach-E, I still don't like it but my understanding is that it helps allow Ford to continue offering a V8 in the Mustang and F-150. Considering Dodge and Ram jumped off a cliff into 6-cylinder land there's probably some credibility to that story.
  • Ajla If I was Ford I would just troll Stellantis at all times.
  • Ronin It's one thing to stay tried and true to loyal past customers; you'll ensure a stream of revenue from your installed base- maybe every several years or so.It's another to attract net-new customers, who are dazzled by so many other attractive offerings that have more cargo capacity than that high-floored 4-Runner bed, and are not so scrunched in scrunchy front seats.Like with the FJ Cruiser: don't bother to update it, thereby saving money while explaining customers like it that way, all the way into oblivion. Not recognizing some customers like to actually have right rear visibility in their SUVs.
  • MaintenanceCosts It's not a Benz or a Jag / it's a 5-0 with a rag /And I don't wanna brag / but I could never be stag
  • 3-On-The-Tree Son has a 2016 Mustang GT 5.0 and I have a 2009 C6 Corvette LS3 6spd. And on paper they are pretty close.
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