March Madness: Sales Explode, Dealers Short Of Cars, SAAR Soars

Car researcher Edmunds sees an exceptionally strong March rebound in U.S. car sales. They expect new vehicle sales to come in 31 percent higher than March 2009. The most muscular comeback kid? Would you believe it, Edmunds expects sales of the already counted out Toyota to explode in March. They also see the Detroit 3 solidly overwhelmed by the furriners, Ford’s heroic efforts notwithstanding.

The predictions would translate into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 12.4m, solidly up from 10.3m in February 2010. Edmunds doesn’t want to call this the end of the SAAR crisis just yet. Their press release couches the good news in the appropriately cautionary terms:

“Although this SAAR sounds promising, it’s too early to wave the flag and say that the economy has turned the corner,” said Edmunds’ CEO Jeremy Anwyl. “Incentives drove sales this month, but those were defensive moves in response to Toyota stepping up incentives and are unlikely to last because inventories are simply not high enough to justify them in the long term.” We are running out of cars!

Edmunds sees Toyota up by a whopping 82 percent over February, and to sell 37.1 percent more than in March 2009. That thanks to generous incentives, and what Jessica Caldwell, Director of Industry Analysis at Edmunds calls “more balanced headlines.” The debunking of James Sikes and the suburban New York housekeeper definitely toned down the shrillness of the reporting. Edmunds predicts Toyota to quickly regain lost market share and customer confidence.

If the media frenzy and the hearings on the hill were intended to boost the fortunes of domestic name plates, well, it did not work out. Edmunds sees the combined monthly U.S. market share of Chrysler, Ford and GM shrink to 44 percent in March, down from 45.1 percent for the same month in the prior year, and down from 47.1 percent in February 2010. Strong Ford is seen as the only domestic maker to gain market share.

Edmunds expects individual car makers to close out the month of March as follows:

Chrysler: down 6.5 percent, market share 8.4 percent (11.8 percent in March 2009)

Ford: up 55.5 percent, market share 18 percent (15.1 percent in March 2009)

GM: up 27 percent, market share 17.6 percent (18.2 percent in March 2009)

Honda: up 21.5 percent, market share 9.6 percent (10.3 percent in March 2009)

Hyundai: up 40.0 percent, market share 8.2 percent in March 2010 (7.7 percent in March 2009)

Nissan: up 48.7 percent, market share 8.9 percent (7.8 percent in March 2009)

Toyota: up 37.1 percent, market share 16.3 percent (15.5 percent in March 2009)

Disclaimer: These are predictions, and March ain’t over yet. But the March tunes sound inspiring. Anchors aweigh!