Return of the Double Digit SAAR?

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

If the tea leaves of Edmunds, J.D. Power, CSM Worldwide and Deutsche Bank are correctly aligned, June SAAR (a.k.a. “seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate”) could be slightly above 10 million, Bloomberg reports. Based on a nearly completed month, J.D. Power estimates the June SAAR at 10.1 million. Deutsche Bank sees the June SAAR rise to 10.2 mil, and thinks the second half of the year will average 11 mil units. CSM reckons June will come in at 10.3 million SAAR.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • JohnHowardOxley JohnHowardOxley on Jun 26, 2009

    Love the picture! I just wonder how many of the B & B who don't have a copy of _Jane's Fighting Ships_ will get the reference.

  • Kristjan Ambroz Kristjan Ambroz on Jul 03, 2009

    I was just about to make the same comment but got beaten to it :) Although if we are going by that model Saar, the bottom is still far away ;) On a more serious note, unless the overall stock of cars starts falling in the coming years or people do change their car owning habits significantly, a 10 million SAAR is too low, leading to replacement times of around 25 years (car in the stock of cars in the country, not with the same owner necessarily). Countries one could compare it with, such as Germany have a replacement time of 16 or so years - closer to a 15-16 million SAAR. Obviously, given that the car penetration in the US is very high, it would not be unreasonable to expect a drop in the overall stock over the coming years as well.