GM Post-Mortems Begin

Robert Farago
by Robert Farago

Triskedecaphobes beware: I make it 13 days until GM files Chapter 11. It will be interesting to see which meme means business on the day. Will the popular press parrot Detroit’s party line: comeback interruptus (i.e., unforeseeable events destroyed the best laid plans of mice and men)? Or will karmic retribution be the topic du jour (i.e., they killed the electric car)? No matter how the Monday morning quarterbacks parse it, there’s no doubt that Detroit’s decline will serve as THE case study in monumental failure for those who don’t want to read Gibbon’s “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” Always ahead of the wave, TTAC’s Paul Neidermeyer has already shared his analysis of this debacle. Paul’s warming up his Dawn of the Dead essay for the actual event. Meanwhile, a number of our Best and Brightest have sent me a link to a BusinessWeek synopsis of “How the Mighty Fall: A Primer on the Warning Signs.”

The funny (not ha-ha) thing about the collective heads-up on the Five Stages of Failure: the story is NOT about GM. And yet, of course, it is. Here are some excerpts.

Stage 1: HUBRIS BORN OF SUCCESS

Suppose instead you succumb to hubris and attribute success to your own superior qualities (“We deserve success because we’re so good/so smart/so innovative/so amazing”). What’s the downside if you’re wrong? Significant. You just might find yourself surprised and unprepared when you wake up to discover your vulnerabilities too late.

Stage 2: UNDISCIPLINED PURSUIT OF MORE

Companies in Stage 2 stray from the disciplined creativity that led them to greatness in the first place, making undisciplined leaps into areas where they cannot be great or growing faster than they can achieve with excellence—or both.

Stage 3: DENIAL OF RISK AND PERIL

As companies move into Stage 3, internal warning signs begin to mount, yet external results remain strong enough to “explain away” disturbing data or to suggest that the difficulties are “temporary” or “cyclic” or “not that bad,” and “nothing is fundamentally wrong.” In Stage 3, leaders discount negative data, amplify positive data, and put a positive spin on ambiguous data. Those in power start to blame external factors for setbacks rather than accept responsibility.

Stage 4:

Common “saviors” include a charismatic visionary leader, a bold but untested strategy, a radical transformation, a dramatic cultural revolution, a hoped-for blockbuster product, a “game-changing” acquisition, or any number of other silver-bullet solutions. Initial results from taking dramatic action may appear positive, but they do not last.

Stage 5:

In Stage 5, accumulated setbacks and expensive false starts erode financial strength and individual spirit to such an extent that leaders abandon all hope of building a great future. In some cases the company’s leader just sells out; in other cases the institution atrophies into utter insignificance; and in the most extreme cases the enterprise simply dies outright.

Robert Farago
Robert Farago

More by Robert Farago

Comments
Join the conversation
2 of 12 comments
  • Ronnie Schreiber Ronnie Schreiber on May 18, 2009
    Mulchay took Xerox from the brink to a nice recovery, but the firm has never regained anything near the dominance of the copying industry it once enjoyed. And Apple will never have near the dominance in the portable digital player market that they did when the iPod first came out. Xerox once had the photocopier market pretty much to itself because, let's face it, they invented the process. As the original patents expired and new technologies emerged so did competitors. When that happens, I suppose you either accept the fact that you're in a mature industry or you reinvent your company.
  • Ttacgreg Ttacgreg on May 18, 2009

    mach1 : "That this is also how nations / civilizations collapse. Think about the Roman Empire or more recently, the British Empire". I thought it, and then scrolled down to see you said it. Indeed. I'd put the USA in stage 4 about now.

  • CanadaCraig You can just imagine how quickly the tires are going to wear out on a 5,800 lbs AWD 2024 Dodge Charger.
  • Luke42 I tried FSD for a month in December 2022 on my Model Y and wasn’t impressed.The building-blocks were amazing but sum of the all of those amazing parts was about as useful as Honda Sensing in terms of reducing the driver’s workload.I have a list of fixes I need to see in Autopilot before I blow another $200 renting FSD. But I will try it for free for a month.I would love it if FSD v12 lived up to the hype and my mind were changed. But I have no reason to believe I might be wrong at this point, based on the reviews I’ve read so far. [shrug]. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about it once I get to test it.
  • FormerFF We bought three new and one used car last year, so we won't be visiting any showrooms this year unless a meteor hits one of them. Sorry to hear that Mini has terminated the manual transmission, a Mini could be a fun car to drive with a stick.It appears that 2025 is going to see a significant decrease in the number of models that can be had with a stick. The used car we bought is a Mk 7 GTI with a six speed manual, and my younger daughter and I are enjoying it quite a lot. We'll be hanging on to it for many years.
  • Oberkanone Where is the value here? Magna is assembling the vehicles. The IP is not novel. Just buy the IP at bankruptcy stage for next to nothing.
  • Jalop1991 what, no Turbo trim?
Next