57 Days to GM Bankruptcy: Stock Set for Delisting

Robert Farago
by Robert Farago

Now that President Obama’s played a short clip of “Dr. Strangelove; or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love a GM Chapter 11” at his auto-related press conference, GM’s remaining stockholders have cottoned on to the inevitability of a GM Chapter 11. As TTAC’s Ken Elias predicted many moons ago, it’s only a question of time before the New York Stock Exchange de-lists GM. When Wagoner resigned and Obama opined, the zombie automaker’s share price began its final glide path. The stock plunged 25 percent on Monday and 28 percent on Tuesday. Yesterday, the price hit $1.58—before rebounding to $1.93, off 1 cent for the session. No surprise there. When the feds pull the plug, the stock will be worth precisely $0. The LA Times reveals the reason GM’s stocks are still publicly traded, by anyone. “Long-time GM shareholders may well figure there’s no point in selling now. If the stock becomes worthless, they can write it off for tax purposes at that point. Until then, it’s just a lottery ticket with extremely low odds of a payoff.”

Robert Farago
Robert Farago

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  • Robert Schwartz Robert Schwartz on Apr 02, 2009

    Turn Conrail arounnd? Here is a brief history of Conrail heavily edited from Wikipedia: The Penn Central Railroad, formed in 1968 by the merger of the New York Central and Pennsylvania Railroads, declared bankruptcy in 1970. In 1973, the Judge in the Penn Central bankruptcy threatened to end all operations if it did not receive government aid. The Regional Rail Reorganization Act of 1973 provided interim funding to the bankrupt railroads and defined the Consolidated Rail Corporation, Conrail. Conrail began operations in 1976. During its first seven years, it was highly unprofitable, despite receiving billions of dollars of assistance from Congress. Although Conrail's government-funded rebuilding of the heavily run-down infrastructure it inherited from its six bankrupt predecessors succeeded by the end of the 1970s in improving its physical condition, the fundamental economic regulatory issues remained, and Conrail continued to post losses of as much as $1 million a day. The Staggers Act of 1980 allowed railroads to set rates that would recover capital and operating cost, ended cross-subsidization of costs between routes, and allowed abandonment of fundamentally uneconomic routes. Conrail began turning a profit by 1981, the result of the Staggers Act freedoms and its own managerial improvements under Stanley Crane, who had been chief executive officer of the Southern Railway. The Northeast Rail Service Act of 1981 relieved Conrail of its requirement to provide commuter service in the Northeast and exempted it from state taxes, further improving its finances. After that, Conrail began to improve and reported taxable income between $2 million and $314 million each year from 1983 through 1986. In 1987, the Government sold Conrail in an IPO for $1.9 Billion. In the 1990's, CSX and NFS, two eastern rail competitors of Conrail, engaged in a takeover battle to control the railroad and expand their systems. In 1997, they struck a compromise, and agreed to jointly acquire Conrail and split its assets.

  • Dave Dave on Apr 02, 2009

    Dumb question (I'm good at them), as I'm not resident in N America, assuming GM survives bankruptcy, does it actually have any product that customers want without serious discounting? If all that emerges is a so-so product range, but cheaper, that could affect the other OEMs - both Ford and the transplants - so what happens to their jobs that Obama presumably wants to save?

  • Dynamic88 Dynamic88 on Apr 03, 2009
    Don’t be surprised if Toyota goes past $100/share when the recovery is underway, which it will be soon enough, despite the doom and gloom mood that we are seeing today. What do you mean by "soon enough"? Are you just saying it will eventually recover, or are you saying it won't be long? I ask because I'm thinking the recovery will be slow. Gradual. My reasoning has to do with credit. I don't see the "free and easy" credit coming back soon, and I think just possibly this recession has scared people enough that they may take a more responsible attitude towards borrowing. If I'm right, our debt based economy will be slow in recovering.
  • Pch101 Pch101 on Apr 03, 2009
    Turn Conrail around? There is no doubt the federal government turned Conrail around, after the private sector failed to do so. It took several bankrupt companies, reorganized them and sold them back into private industry. In the process, the government basically broke even and avoided the consequences of what would have occurred had they not previously intervened. I ask because I’m thinking the recovery will be slow. Gradual. My reasoning has to do with credit. Do remember that stock prices tend to be a leading indicator. They will rebound in anticipation of future events, so stocks will rise before the recovery is complete. Factors such as unemployment are lagging indicators; the recovery will be well underway as unemployment tops out. Also keep in mind that Toyota is a global company. It will get a lift from recoveries in emerging markets in ways that a company such as Ford would not. And finally, the US government is working overtime to push credit into the markets. Credit has already started to loosen in certain sectors, and I believe that you'll see a broad recovery of credit within the next couple of quarters. Many of the 90% of us who are still employed at that point will step back, breath a sigh of relief that their heads haven't hit the chopping block, and start spending, which will reignite the growth cycle. Americans like to spend money, so it won't take much to encourage them.
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