Israeli Strike on Iran Could Hike Gas to $7 a Gallon
If you believe Iran will abandon its nuclear ambitions in the face of economic sanctions, there’s nothing to see here. If you believe there’s no way deny Iran The Bomb short of a military strike, the question becomes who and when? It’s hardly likely the Bush administration will want to engage in yet another military “adventure” before the next guy to accompany the football takes office. On the other hand, Bernard Baumohl thinks the Israelis want to get this thing done before Barack or John assumes the position (so to speak). ABC News reports that the Economic Outlook Group’s Chief Global Economist says a strike would disrupt oil prices (surprise!), one way or another. “It all depends on the success of the Israeli strike. If it was a quick, successful strike and Iran doesn’t block the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil route in the Persian Gulf — Baumohl sees a quick spike in oil prices and then a steady decline. He says that within three days of the strike oil could costs $175 to $225 a barrel. The record of $147.27 a barrel was reached back in July and oil today closed at less than $108. But within three months the price would fall because Iran’s nuclear weapons program would be destroyed or crippled. Oil would cost $70 to $85 a barrel. Of course, Baumohl has a more-dire scenario with oil prices between $200 and $300 a barrel. This happens if the strike fails, triggers a bigger war and the flow of oil is disrupted. In that case, the price of gas in America would climb to $5 to $7 a gallon.”
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RF, Considering the topic, this thread is amazingly free of nutjob and wingnut comments. Perhaps this is where McCain and Obama agree the most - we should get ourselves off the foreign oil asap. The sooner we stop paying those that loathe us, the better.
Reading all the comments on this make me hope the day comes soon(er) that we can all drive around in our Plug-in 80mpg cars and the transportation sector runs off of algae based bio-diesel. We would have some version of energy independence. The crappy governance and wars of the middle east would get the same mehpage 3 treatment that Africa now receives.
@ whatdoiknow: Iran appears to be a somewhat rational player, meaning they respond to incentives and punishment the way any other nation might. The hate speech of their leader has not been seriously challenged, and that has caused the fear most have of what he and the mullahs want to do. The problem is that there is little direct action we can take to limit Iran's nuclear expansion without causing a broader conflict. There are some indirect actions that might be used, though. With Russia's actions in Georgia, it would seem that the Russians would not want us, the Europeans or Israelis to arm the Georgians with advanced weapons to fight them with. Perhaps this can be used to help convince the Russians to end their support of Iran's nuclear program. Would have to wonder, though, what the reaction would be if the Russians destroy the Georgian pipeline and what it would to oil prices. Where's the Goracle with our solution, dammit?