"Here's a News Flash for People Who Are Expecting the Full-size Pickup Market to Come Back: Those People Are Gone."
Ford CEO Alan Mulally's turnaround plan might not be able to overcome the weight of history, but these guys sure seem to have a handle on, gulp, reality. To wit: FoMoCo analyst George Pippas' [above] acknowledgment of the American consumer's shift away from pickup trucks. Pippas' remarks come via BusinessWeek, which reports that April light truck sales (pickups, minivans, SUVs and crossovers) dropped by 17.4 percent across the board. That's compared to an overall passenger car increase of 4.5 percent. And a total new vehicle sales decrease of 7.8 percent, to 4,819,709 units. So, what does GM make of the pickup truck cash cow barbecue? "We certainly think the pickup truck market will bounce [back], but it's hard to say how quickly and how high that will go," pronounced Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve. Chrysler? "We don't see this market as a sea change against pickup trucks," spokesmouth Stuart Schorr said. "But it is a challenge. That's why we're developing hybrids, for instance. But Americans will continue to want pickup trucks." Toyota used PR-speak to split the difference between realism and delusion. ""Consumers are delaying their purchases now," admits ToMoCo GM Bob Carter. "But it's going to recover in the future." One thing for sure: the future isn't now. [thanks to jthorner for the link]
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I stopped by several dealerships today - Ford, GMC, Toyota, and Chevrolet. ALL were packed with pickups, and two were open for business. Fusions and Corollas were observed coming back from test drives. I think that pickups will still sell in big numbers but not yesterday's big numbers. Even at a 30% reduction in sales, we are still talking big numbers. Tradespeople, industry, and those who simply will not buy anything else will support a large number but the manufacturing infrastructure is now geared for too much capacity. So a shakeout in production capacity is inevitable. Those who purchase trucks for reasons other than true "need" are the ones who are gone for good.
I live in the country. Lot's of second/third-hand pickups and SUVs around, taxing themselves to the tune of 5-10 mpg. I wouldn't care much if they weren't a danger to everyone else. Especially on Friday/Saturday nights when during the course of bar hopping they plow into the guard rails and flip and injure/kill themselves, and unfortunately, others. The ones that aren't incapacitiated or dead go out and buy another used pickup/SUV and raise it they next day or within a week. It's a seemingly endless cycle out here in East Bumfuck. I keep thinking the supply of used pickup/SUVs will run out, but sadly that does not seem to be the case. Folks out here just don't buy cars. If they make it to their 40s and 50s, they may at least become responsible drivers. I suspect his is why my insurance went UP when I moved from the city/inner burbs.
The Deuce (Henry II) was brought in as prez of FoMoCo because the War Production Board deemed 'ol Henry unreliable. When Henry balked at making his grandson prez, Clara said she would sell her Ford Stock if 'ol Henry didn't relent. The first thing The Deuce did when he became prez was to fire Bennett and all the members of the "Service Dept" ..Ford's in-house security service known as Bennett's "goon squad." Thanks for the ref on Dick Caleal, I couldn't remember that name for the life of me. btw: I'm also a Ford car/truck collector, and spend a good portion of my day (I'm retired) on two Ford truck websites created for owners/enthusuasts of old/new trucks, Broncos, and etc.