Bloomberg Offers a Piercing Glimpse Into the Blindingly Obvious: December Car Sales Crash
January 2nd, 2008 8:44 AM
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As if anyone who's been semi-conscious for the past six months couldn't see it coming, Bloomberg predicts December's auto sales numbers will close the year on a sour note. Based on their survey of six industry analysts, they estimate deliveries were down by 5.6 percent at GM, 7.8 percent at Ford and 7.9 percent at Chrysler. They expect smaller declines from the transplants. Americans bought an estimated 16.1 million cars and light trucks last year which is the lowest since 1998. Analysts across the board are predicting an even worse year in 2008. We'll see how far off Bloomberg's stats are when the overall sales figures are released tomorrow. Look out for TTAC's wrap-up on 2007 sales via the specific models we've been tracking.
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That's hardly a "crash". Each of the domestics has seen much worse months various months of 2007 than predicted in the article. Nothing would surprise me either way when the numbers come out, but IF as indicated in the article the Detroit-3 were to shrink only 5.5 to 8.0 percent for December, then most likely that would mean most of the Asians and Europeans would show modest growth, and on net the month would be down maybe 2.5% -- in line with the year. THAT's not a crash. Personally I think the industry and analysts are caught up in groupthink and that mostly likely sales in 2008 will grow, not decline. Yes, you read it here first.
With the energy bills we are facing and the rising cost of everything who has money for a brand new car? Or even a 2 year old car that costs what a new one did 4 years ago.
One of my bosses just bought a previously-owned Bimmer (751?). I could probably swing a car purchase, but I'm hesitant about incurring the wrath of the gods of recession.