Comments on: While America Slept. Tuesday, January 6, 2009

By: Patrickj

Patrickj — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 02:21:38 +0000

As far as the population of Japan goes, predictions that the last Japanese will simply die out are simply ridiculous.

If the small number of young people gain opportunities because there are so few of them, people in Japan will have LOTS of babies.

Seeing the neighbor’s 14 year old bringing in a living wage after school at the nursing home in addition to a large child subsidy ought to get their attention.

If it doesn’t, a couple of hundred million Chinese or Indonesians will be glad to take over.

By: Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 18:41:48 +0000

Fighting demographics is a losing proposition. If there are less and less people who may possibly buy your product, you are doomed to sell less product, whatever you do. It’s simple to understand, but very few people do. The same as in Japan is happening in Germany. Beginning in 1970, births halved. Germany’s population peak is now in the mid 40s. 40-60 happens to be the main new car buying age in Germany. That’s why Germany’s new car market had boomed and will be ok for a while. In 2020, it will totally collapse.

If you look at the US at http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp you will se a peak in the 40-49 year group, followed by a trough in the 25-39 age group. We are heading into a period of a lot of potential buyers missing. In 15-20 years, it will improve again. If someone has average ages of American new car buyers (reliable data, please,) the I can do a proper analysis.

I did that 10 years ago for Europe, predicted a car boom, and I was right.

Speaking of Japan, Japan’s population peak is around 60 years old.

By: Kevin

Kevin — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 18:01:21 +0000

dmk976 Does anyone else but me think that if we all use the cheaper electricity at night that our respective utility companies will catch on and raise the rates?

Who pays less for “cheaper electricity” at night? Funny I keep hearing that claim about EVs as if varying rates are universal, but in fact the vast majority of people pay the same price per kilowatt-hour no matter what time they consume the electricity, just as I certainly do. Look at your meter.

Ed N I am extremely curious to see where Japan’s car market finds a level

Jack Horner makes a great point about demographics. As a long term trend, there is simply no reason to expect that car sales in Japan will ever again do anything other than fall, fall forever, until there is no more Japan.

By: Edward Niedermeyer

Edward Niedermeyer — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:01:02 +0000

I am extremely curious to see where Japan’s car market finds a level. And frankly, I think Japan is going to stand a lot of Jeremy Clarkson’s national/cultural vehicle attribute stuff on its head. Does it makes sense that a society that is out of love with cars could be the world standard at selling and building them? Why not. Americans love cars (even if they can’t afford them) but look at our industry. Not that globalization wasn’t making his nationality-based worldview obsolete anyway…

By: John Horner

John Horner — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:21:34 +0000

Japan’s domestic auto market is in permanent decline if for no other reason than that its population is both shrinking and aging. 2005 was the first year Japan officially lost population: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4552010.stm If present trends continue, Japan is projected to loose half its population over the next seventy years: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/japan/he09dh04.html

Older people buy fewer cars, and dead people buy none. Then there is the fact that the younger generation in developed nations sees cars more and more as a hassle and less and less as a pleasure. Japan’s auto companies must keep expanding overseas just to stay even.

By: PeteMoran

PeteMoran — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:08:44 +0000

Li-ion prices will come down sharply once widespread mass production begins, and that usage might thus spread to nearly every industrial sector.

Really? I’ve got a US Geological Survey report on my desk openly wondering where all the Lithium is going to come from? Fully 70% of reserves are supposedly in Chile.

Rare resources are getting rarer……

An interesting primer for the problem.

For example, 2006 estimates had ~360 years of platinum left (not necessarily economically recoverable) which is a lot. BUT, if the whole world population consumed platinum at just 50% of the US rate, there would be 42 years left.

Things like methanol fuel cells are going to be extremely important rather than batteries. Fuel cells are closed systems and apart from the catalyst (which is not lost like in ICE exhausts) are based on simple compounds.

It’s a complex topic, but the article itself is worth reading.

By: dmk1976

dmk1976 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:04:35 +0000

Does anyone else but me think that if we all use the cheaper electricity at night that our respective utility companies will catch on and raise the rates?