Toyota? Over here.

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/06/06/toyota-fuel-cell-hybrid-now-has-over-500-mile-range/

Toyota can be hard to see, given all the dust clouds they’re kicking up.

They’re busy trying to ramp-up U.S. production of Priora.

Where’s Toyota?

I think it is time for “Peak BullSh!t” watch. This statement holds the top spot on my leaderboard.

Rubbish. Balderdash. Offal. Shite.

In 2018, we will still be on the early learning curve for efficient & effective coal liquification, and likely barely scratching into kerogen. Deep water oil fields will still be being found.

There might be a temporally-restricted supply peak because of cessation of demand pressures that delays development of costlier liquid fuel sources and their refinement, but a true liquid peak implying no further expansion of liquid fuel supplies is possible relative to demand anytime after 2018 is not in the cards.

Phil

No, they did not. Electric vehicles were mass produced more than 100 years ago; GM wasn’t even thought of back then.

What’s that again about being naive? :)

Anyways…..

The Tesla isn’t on it’s death bed already is it? I was so looking forward to scoring one. I know that someone within the company got himself a prototype but I figured they’d have made some deliveries by now.

Then perhaps the post should clarify this focus on “application” and not the various types of battery tech, because the implication of Li-ion limitations is that Tesla cannot or will not choose another battery type if they find one more suitable to their application.

As to his point about capacity, places like energy starved California are already adding significant daytime capacity. It really is a non issue over the next 5-8 years. If people use plug-ins for commutes (as is the vast majority of consumer car mileage), they will charge primarily at night.

Good thing for Musk and SpaceX that US taxpayers are funding them now via the COTS contract. Musk might be rich, but blowing up rockets like that exceeds the capacities of even he in a very short time comparatively. Given the street-cred Tesla has with the Beautiful Green People and their propensity to prod the government into subsidizing bad investments, looks like Tesla will be on Uncle Scam life-support before too long as well I would guess.

It’s not innovation that’s the problem; it’s application. Toyota thinks that Teslea is boxed into a corner with what they have promised (range, price) with the Whitestar Sedan. They don’t think it’s doable. The same (Toyota) thinking applies to the Fisker Karma and Volt. We’ll see.

GD: Moreover, Reinert is completely wrong about off peak grid infrastructure capacity.

Please reread the post; Reinart is specifically saying that he thinks folks won’t limit themselves to night-time charging, therefore creating greater demand during peak times.

The whole idea of Tesla is to apply aspects of tech- company flexibility to the automobile- the car as killer app. This means having the ability to integrate the latest and greatest forms of battery tech in much the same way that chip technology progresses. So the very idea that Tesla is on a death watch due to battery innovation is absurd on its face.

Moreover, Reinert is completely wrong about off peak grid infrastructure capacity. The DOE already did a study on this topic (2006, I believe) and stated that we have the ability to charge 180 million vehicles off peak right now- with no changes to infrastructure.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/science/space/03launchweb.html?ref=science

There an awful lot of oil shale out there to “peak” in just 10 years.

The point to peak oil is not that a lot of it might be coming out of shale; it’s that new production can’t be brought online quickly enough to offset depleting existing production. Shale will be extremely limited in how quickly it can come online and how much can be produced – it’s incredibly expensive in terms of water and other resources.

And, no, you shouldn’t talk about “demand outstripping supply”. They’re curves, not scalar values. More accurate to say the price is rising because the demand curve is pushing quicker than the supply curve can react (and if you believe peak oil, ever will react).

I’m reminded of something Mark Twain once said, “If you always tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.”

By doing extensive advance planning for where they want to be in 20yrs, Japanese firms know what they have to do in the next 5yrs so that the 20yr plan will happen.

On the flip side, GM doesn’t have any idea where it’s going to get the cash it needs to get through 2009. That’s why it’d be so interesting to see things done differently.

And keep looking for the cracks in Toyota’s plans. Let them know where they are, in detail. They’ll thank you for the information and work to fix them. Why? Because that’s what they do.

This is why GM looks so ridiculous, ADD, and clueless in comparison.

Actually, being a fly on the wall for the misses are more fun than the hits.

The problem with oil shale is that while there is a great deal of potential energy stored in the oil shale the cost and effort to turn shale into usable oil is not very economical now.

Sure Oil shale can provide us with just about all the petroleum we need but at what cost? If the price of gas at the pump is over $5 to $6 per gallon is it a viable, sustainable solution?

Which is my point. Toyota are slipping.

First rules of public relations:

1. Treat every question or situation as if it was loaded.

2. Treat every microphone as if it’s on.

3. Always stay on the record, even if you are off it.

Doesn’t matter whether it’s an informal lunch or a high ranking dinner. Stay professional.

Gerald Ratner thought he was “off the record” when he made his comments and look what happened…..

Isn’t it just amazing that the same company that might have made one mistake (Is this REALLY a mistake?) is actually just “shaking it off”, Yet they are still managing to concentrate on other VIABLE projects that they have been working on (and improving) for some time now. Guess what, they are ALSO hard at work on the NEXT Corolla and Camry. I would not be surprised to find out that they are still doing a great deal of R&D on full-sized SUV and Pick-ups.
Stop missing the forest though the trees here! Far too many folks are missing the point about Toyota “BIG” investment in the NA light-truck market. Out of GM, Ford, Dodge, one (or two) of these companies will be gone very soon leaving a big fat hole in the marketplace that Toyota is setting itself up to take advantage of.

And didn’t they also produce the first mass produced EV?

I hate to think that you get to be No. 1 by doing nothing.

Sounds like Jap media spin to me.

So is this guy Toyota’s version of Bob Lutz?

Who doesn’t like to stir the pot once in a while?

The lithium supply thing is real. It’s only available in third world countries and finite. But is it recyclable?

There an awful lot of oil shale out there to “peak” in just 10 years. Unless they think it will be a “demand peak” instead of a “supply peak.”

Yeah. Not all their strategy meetings are fly-on-the-wall worthy.

“Big company” syndrome, maybe…..?