1- It’s CAR.

2- “extrapolates”

3- It’s 2011. Nobody knows what things are going to look like come 2011. Nobody.

I wasn’t saying the D3 execs should be flogging this stat, but it’s certainly no less misleading than the stats they are currently spreading.

You may very well be right in that the run up to 17 million units was fueled on easy credit for the not credit worthy and GM, Ford and Chrysler’s need to keep the lines running.

major contraction … would be recovered by 2011

I’m not sure about that. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lower level of yearly car sales becomes the norm for this country because:
* Modern vehicles are quite durable (no more of those cars that rust through in 5 to 10 years).
* Demographics are shifting towards retired people, who don’t drive as much.
* Shift away from a consumer culture of debt-financed spending.
* Reduced roll of car dealers due to internet.

Add that up and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a permanent shift from 16 million units in 2007 to more like 12 million annually going forward, even if the country pulls out of its current financial woes. That permanent demand decline would be yet another reason why GM should reorganize under C11–they need to match the market reality that consumers are just not going to buy as much stuff.

Of course, the more optimistic estimate of losing 2.5-3 million jobs isn’t exactly heartwarming.