Detroit’s leasing problems were just the tip of the iceberg, and Toyota won’t miss the berg the next time around. The average new car loan now is for more than sixty months, which means that the loan is made in the expectation that it will not actually be paid off, but rather that the balance will be rolled over into a new loan when the buyer trades again. This Ponzi scheme only works, though, as long as the buyer can continue getting loans for amounts that exceed, almost instantly upon signing, the actual value of the collatoral.

The more that a carmaker keeps its new car loans in-house, the more it has at risk on both resale value and the ability to generate money to loan to feed new car sales. Toyota has its derriere hanging just about as far out the window on this as the folks at GMAC. They’ve just avoided making a mess in public, so far, because they stayed out of the mortgage market. But the ripple effect of the credit crunch is still spreading and Toyota just hasn’t received the message – yet.