According to The Detroit News, Toyota has walked down its '09 global sales estimates by 700k units, from 10.4m vehicles to 9.7m. This is the second forecast downgrade; a tacit admission by the world's largest automaker that the U.S. sales slump will not experience the rapid recovery its native carmakers have been praying for predicting. "[Toyota CEO Katsuaki] Watanabe said he saw as 'fundamental' the slowdown in the U.S. market as soaring gas prices not only crimp car purchases but drives an unprecedented shift in consumer demand from trucks to smaller fuel-efficient models." And just like GM's suits, Toyota's big boss tried to apply a coat of green gloss to the loss. "In his annual outlining of the company's business plan, Watanabe tried to sound an upbeat note by promising green vehicles. He said Toyota will speed up the delivery of a plug-in hybrid — which can be plugged into regular household electrical sockets — initially promised for sometime in 2010, to the end of 2009." Meanwhile, "It is forecasting its first full-year profit decline in seven years as it faces more problems from the weakening U.S. market."
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Isn’t his pouring fuel on the fire of the 2.8’s credit problems? If I were the guy trying to get a loan approved for GM at an investment bank, this is just one more thing I am worried someone will bring up to shoot me down.
I would be surprised if US SAARs hit 13.0M in ‘09. Things are going to get worse- much worse- before they get better. On the other hand, the average age of automobiles in the US is increasing at a rapid rate due to the current low volume environement.
Those makers who can last till 2011 or 2012- when people start to look to replace cars bought during the late ’90’s boom– will be ideally placed for another boom.