Hyperbole where it’s due. The Prius is not a one-hit wonder, as of now it’s just a single model of (mostly) uncompromising design towards fuel efficiency. And the drivetrain is used in other vehicles offered by Toyota.

It sells better than many of the vehicles GM offers. If you looked at retail sales only, it might outsell everything.

The Prius doesn’t have a 600lb battery… that’s part of the genius of the thing; Toyota figured out what would make the most sense in electrical powertrain enhancement without building a car that was too expensive to sell or too badly compromised in terms of performance or utility.

Everything we do, as we go along, involves more complexity (or, at the very least, more complex fabrication). Look at a television. The circuitry was, once upon a time, quite simple and many problems could actually be fixed by a tolerably smart end-user. Now? The schematic involves parts that have far circuits than the original TVs did in toto… and forget repairing it. But it is better, in many ways.

Everything vehicles is a compromise between various design goals. The Prius does pretty well at a couple of them, at the expense of the others.

And it’s affordable.

Contrast Toyota’s efforts to commercialize a hybrid car as a sales and profit success with the Volt. GM gets a putative advantage in some electric range but at what price? Twice as expensive, maximum capacity of four, very likely a small trunk, very likely a short cruising range, owners must be able to plug it in to get full effect… There’s lots of reasons not to buy this car; unless GM turns the program around, somehow, it’s going to flop.

Another contract with GM; once the vehicle is on the road, it’s time to improve it. The next version is better in several ways and appears worse in none.

Parallel hybrids, like the Prius and Fusion, might eventually run out of gas but, right now, it looks like they can be a commercial success. Certainly, there’s nothing else on the road that’s wringing over 40mpg out of gasoline.

You’d think readers of TTAC would appreciate hyperbole, or at least have a sense of humour.

My point is that a car burdened with extra mass, extra complexity and extra cost does not represent “progress” for the environment or for the human race in general. It represents gadgetry; in this case a kneejerk reaction to a gas price bubble/Global Warming Cult movement, both of which are winding down.

By clinging to a one-hit-wonder like the Prius, Toyota is planning its business by looking in the rear-view mirror just as GM did for years.

Well don’t you fret now Semi. This being the internet means that something light and fluffy is merely a mouse click away.

May I suggest the Truth about Booth Babes editorial ?
Or maybe you were looking for the ” The BS About Cars ” site and found yourself here..

he also wrote The original story is about marketing (by Toyota’s prez) and perceived market share (also by the same guy).

In fact it was skid666 who derailed the thread by casting aspersions on the Prius HV battery (which are unfounded) and insinuating that would be a cause for those sales figure projections to be off.

My post just agreed with a couple of previous posts made by M1EK except that I am not sure that the sample size for the 8 year old cars is large enough yet to be totally confident that calendar effects are going to be minimal. However I think it is safe enough to inject a mainstream Lexus Prius into that brand. And they may even provide superior multi-link suspension just like they’ve done with the Camry platform for the ES300-350 series.

Unfortunately this topic is about to time out. Perhaps next time because there hasn’t been any chance for discourse on the technical specs just released for the Gen III.
T2

The owners of hybrids and electrics are all lab rats for a new era. Just like the folks who bought those little kerosene runabouts 100 years ago. They didn’t wax BS on kerosene vs. whale oil. They just drove ‘em ’til the wheels fell off. Literally. On to the next topic, boys.

M1EK: “The algorithm in the Prius uses something close to the ‘middle third’ of the battery capacity. If the battery’s true (full) capacity shrank by such a large margin, it would be difficult to imagine a way that wouldn’t affect the actual capacity capable of being used by the HSD.

Toyota’s hybrid algorithm is one their greatest achievements in making hybrid technology a viable, practical application in a modern vehicle.

Unlike the original Honda Insight, which achieved stellar fuel mileage at the expense of battery longevity (along with other, unacceptable compromises), Toyota managed to hit the ’sweet spot’ of balancing battery longevity with a still acceptable increase in fuel mileage.

It will be interesting to see how well other manufacturers (mainly GM with the Volt) are able to achieve the same battery longevity/fuel mileage ’sweet spot’ balance.

Batt 201v @ 6.5AHrs = 1.3Kwhr = 4.68M watt-secs = 4.68Mjoules.
Prius Kinetic energy @50mph about 540Kjoules.
So battery is oversized by approx ten times what it actually needs for regeneration to a standstill (recuperation). That’s the energy capacity.

However the first problem is the power capacity. It is the available chemical activity which effects power delivery and that happens to be related to temperature. The Peukert Effect, as it is known, halves that power capability every 10 deg C below room temp. At -22C, this evening, a car left outside will be left with but one eighth power capacity by morning.

The possible power delivery is nominally 180 amps although capped electronically by Toyota to just 100 Amps. Despite this at least 25 amps should be expected which works out to 5Kw ; more than enough for MG1 to fire up the the 1.5L Prius engine under this worst case scenario, but don’t expect much from that 21Kw of electrical assist – you won’t be getting it. For these extreme conditions Toyota should option an insulated battery housing with integral heaters much like they do with engine block heaters. Owners haven’t complained enough probably.

The cyclability life of the battery through thousands of cycles has proved exemplary. 150k miles plus ? Appears to be no problem. On the other hand since the majority of Prius out there are three years old or newer, whether chronological effects will start to kick in on this huge population we’ll have to wait and see.

And finally most of the benefits of hybridisation are available should the battery be copping out. Even the Civic hybrid leaves you with a gas sipping 1.3L when the assist goes AWOL.
T2

Mileage longevity looks great for the Prius for now, it hasn’t been sold long enough to know about time longevity.

The algorithm in the Prius uses something close to the ‘middle third’ of the battery capacity. If the battery’s true (full) capacity shrank by such a large margin, it would be difficult to imagine a way that wouldn’t affect the actual capacity capable of being used by the HSD.

This would lead to the conclusion that:
a) Toyota engineers don’t use all of the batteries capacity to achieve their fuel economy ratings
b) at some point the fuel economy (we assume after the warranty runs out) will lessen until the batteries are replaced, and at that point it may not make economical sense to replace them (can a Prius run if battery pack is removed?)

BTW, is the warranty on the batteries pro-rated?
(ie. if in last year of warranty, the battery fails, do you get a brand new one for free?)

Didnt’ Priuses enjoy free unlimited HOV lane access in some states, even with a single driver, a privilege that will soon expire?

In any event, price wars are great for buyers, after all these years. Bring it on.

In Figure 2, the Phase I, AC-on test results show average fuel efficiency increases of 2.5% for the Civics, 4.2% for the Insights and 1.4% for the Priuses. These changes are all considered within the accuracies (can be up to a 5% change when different vehicle operators are used) of the dynamometer testing. Therefore, the fuel efficiency results for the HEVs after 160,000 miles of fleet testing (when evaluated using road loads representative of a new vehicle) are equivalent to that of a new vehicle.

Although SAE J1634 testing was performed with a small sample size, the data demonstrated no distinct correlation between battery degradation (reduction in battery capacity) and fuel efficiency loss (reduction in fuel efficiency). The data indicated that the power demand on the batteries had increased, their capacity (to hold charge) had diminished, and yet fuel efficiency degradation was not directly proportional to either of these factors.

This suggests to me that some assumptions in the study were flawed. What could it be? Maybe this one:

Since the initial traction battery pack capacity of each HEV was not determined when the vehicle was new, the characterization results obtained from the end-of-life testing were compared to the nominal (manufacturer) rated battery capacity.

Gee. Wonder if that might have something to do with it?

I’m sure there has been some small changes in battery tech, but they will still lose capacity over time, it just depends on how much ‘extra’ capacity that was built in before the owner notices a change.

They may or may not reach their goal. As a professional cheapskate, we don’t spend any money unless we have to (Bad for sales) but once a decision is made to actually purchase a car for say 20,000 dollars we still buy that vehicle which will save us the most money. THERE DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A PAY OFF POINT. IT SIMPLY HAS TO SAVE MONEY COMPARED TO THE ALTERNATIVE 20,000 DOLLAR CHOICE. Cheap gas or expensive gas the Prius saves money

So, they overspec’ed the battery? So that it would last any reasonable life of the car? Those cagey bastards! Giving up the revenue stream from replacement parts and repair service in favor of customer value and repeat sales? The nerve!

If Ford or GM had done that, I might not own 4 Toyotas.

M1EK,

There is such a study but it’s so old that it’s almost certainly irrelevant.

GM faces a similar problem, “Will the Volt batteries go the distance?” GM doesn’t know and there’s more long-term understanding of the NiMH’s in the Prius than the new-tech Li-Ions that will someday fill the Volt.

If they must overspec the battery to get them to last the life of the car, at least Toyota has a good knowledge base so as to do the necessary overspec’ing.

GM’s rolling the dice. With customer money. And taxpayer money. So as to lose money on an unprofitable car. Sheer genius.

There was a study done by the US govt that found around 1/2 the capacity was gone at 150K miles and I would guess only a 1/3 would be left at 200+ K.

One has to wonder if Toyota is ‘increasing’ the fuel efficiency on the newer Prius by decreasing the amount of overcapacity available (ie, decreasing useful life).

Add that to the cabs that have gone 200-250K miles with no problems and you have reality – the batteries do just fine; as many have said, they will likely live as long as the cars do.

Will gas prices stay low long enough for
Americans to fall back to their big car gas-guzzling ways?

There are a ton of SUV’s out there at cheap prices right now, that make pretty good sense with gas at less than $2 a gallon.

Another factor that I sort of hesitate to mention is that Americans are, well, BIG people. When one of my friends came to visit us a week back, he barely fit into the passenger seat of my 3 series. Neither he nor his wife are ever going to fit into a Prius comfortably. Neither of them is svelte but neither is big enough that you’d notice them in a Walmart.

The reason that SUV’s and pickups became popular in the first place is that -in terms of interior space- they are the big cars that the American companies quit making but American buyers kept wanting.

Thus, I believe that if Ford can get their advertising mojo working, the “Big Car/SUV” hybrid is a long-term winner for them.

IF gas prices start to creep up, that is.

It’s not hard to look up the correct numbers. For 2004 to 2009 models it is

45 kilograms = 99.208018 pounds for the entire battery assembly. Do you expect Toyota to increase the battery capacity 500%?

For the curious one battery sub module is 2.3lbs(1.04kg) and the current Prius has 28 modules, the net weight of the batteries is about 64lbs.

Massive batteries in the several hundred pounds range would only make sense in a plug in hybrid which the 180,000 sold in 2009 will not be. Even in 2010 or 2012 or whenever the first plug in hybrids are sold in the US the majority of the Prius sold will not have the massive battery weight you mentioned. It will be a long time before plug in hybrids are more common than the Prius you see today that has less than 100 pounds of batteries.

Vehicles like the Fusion Hybrid and Camry Hybrid will have a difficult time justifying their higher price tag over the nearly as efficient in highway driving and much cheaper 4cyl sisters.

Is that a form of the tedious “it doesn’t save me enough in fuel spending today to get an ROI” argument?

That they did for 2010. The new interior is much nicer than the old, though whether it’s up to par in a segment that includes the A4, C300 and IS250 is questionable.