GM’s decline began fifty years ago, when the domestic automaker failed to repel import sales with competitive products. GM’s rear-engined air-cooled Corvair provided the template: technically advanced, but too expensive to provide profit. A string of over-ambitious and ultimately doomed imports fighters followed: aluminum-engined Vega, the Wankel, X-Body FWD, Olds Diesel V8, Cadillac V8-6-4 and EV-1. Now, when it can least afford a costly mistake, GM is launching a blitz of four different hybrid systems in a desperate attempt to counter Toyota’s successful Hybrid Synergy Drive (HSD). Is GM’s Volt the Corvair reincarnated?
Toyota’s ascendancy has been well documented: the tortoise approach to continuously improved products, processes and technologies. The Prius was born in the early nineties when oil was $15 a barrel. Initially subsidized by Toyota, the Prius is now a profitable product. And Toyota continues to relentlessly wring-out the costs of HSD; the Japanese automaker expects its hybrids to have the same (high) profit margins as its conventional cars by 2010.
Instead of figuring out how to make its (conventional) small cars profitably, GM has opened the floodgates to hybrid development. In fall ’06, Saturn introduced the belt-assist (BAS) or “mild hybrid” Saturn Vue. While GM’s BAS system allowed the domestic automaker to crow that it was, finally, in the hybrid business, sales are… unknown. [GM is the only automaker that doesn’t to break out hybrid sales numbers.]
The two-mode hybrid system set to be introduced on the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon is classic GM: a technically ambitious product that costs too much money. GM has publicly stated that the two-mode costs the company $10k. Try amortizing that with three dollar gas; it just doesn’t pan out. No surprise that development partners Daimler and BMW are quietly walking away from the two-mode in favor of their own cheaper partial-hybrid systems. Even using six bucks a gallon gas, Europeans can’t justify the extra investment.
GM will sell a few thousand hybrid Tahoes and Suburbans to politicians, celebrities and the like, so they can ride in their behemoths “guilt free.” Meanwhile, GM is rushing their new light-truck diesel to market. The oil burner’s a better and cheaper choice for the real world conditions in which pickups and SUV’s operate (highway mileage improvement of the hybrid Tahoe is all of 2 mpg). And just who’s going to buy a Chevrolet Malibu with a $10k two-mode hybrid system?
Now, “plug-in hybrids” have replaced the fuel cell as the eco-darling concept du jour. GM has no fewer than two such systems in development. A plug-in version of the Vue could well end up costing $45k ($6 to $10k on top of the $10k cost of the two-mode system).
And then there’s the Volt. According to GM’s Bob Lutz, “Five years from now there will be one technology leader in the world, and it will be GM.” That boast has a familiar ring to it. And even if it turns out to be true, it will be a hollow (i.e. unprofitable) victory.
GM is sending its series-hybrid Volt to a showdown at the ECO corral against the parallel-hybrid Prius. With its projected 40 miles plug-in range and on-board generator, the Volt sounds impressive. But the Gen3 Prius due out in 2010 (like the Volt?), may well equal and even eclipse the Volt’s efficiency.
The Volt’s weakness– intrinsic drive train inefficiencies– show up as soon as its battery range is exhausted. While GM projects 50mpg during “charge sustaining operation” operation, that’s a misleading claim. The batteries will need to be charged by the generator– as well as keeping the car moving. Like all electric vehicles, the Volt will do best in shorter-range city driving.
The Prius’ HSD drive feeds the output of its gas engine directly to the wheels at higher speeds. It’s an intrinsically more efficient solution than using a generator to send power to an electric motor via the batteries. And Gen3 Prius will easily meet or exceed the Volt’s 50mpg continuous-use projection; Toyota projects a 15 to 20 percent improvement over the Prius’ current 46mpg EPA rating. Gen3 Prius will also have expanded electric-only range, as well as an optional plug-in range extender, approaching the Volt’s electric-only range.
GM will milk all the publicity it can get from the Volt. Hard-core eco-poseurs will buy in. After spending a billion dollars developing the Volt, they’re looking to sell some 60k annually at $30k apiece. GM is anxious about that price, and is already floating the idea of renting the battery pack separately from the car (negating any actual savings from plug-in electric energy) to try to blunt the impact (“We’ll sell you a Volt for $20k, battery not included”).
Meanwhile, Toyota will be selling 150k similarly-efficient Prii for a mere $20k, and making a tidy profit doing so.
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They would be better off developing cleaner diesels for the monster SUV. Toyota is reaping the benefits of 15 years of development. They paid their dues. Hybrids may only be a stopgap measure until we come up with a way to burn water but GM’s attempts are laughable at best, sadly expensive at worse.
NEC went 16 years without making a profit at semiconductors. After that they never lost money again. Japanese companies are more patient than American companies when it comes to the future.
I never understand why GM cannot focus and start out small yet in the right direction. It’s the nature of this beast to make claims to the heavens and underdeliver in action. Metaphorically, GM is an 800lb Gorilla with AGADD (Adult Gorilla Attention Deficeit Disorder). Can’t seem to focus on anything small and substantial – instead wants overly ambitous goals without the ability or potential to get there.
Whether it’s unions or GM management. It’s the ignorant leading the stupid and of course the other way around.
Rick W. – Gotta hit this one out.
R. Lutz, – C’mon Ricky boy hit one out the park you can do it.
Rick W swings hard makes a good cut, but misses,
Rick W. – Damn fast ball diddn’t even see taht one coming. Ok 2 more strikes. I can do this. I know I can.
Lutz. – That’s Ok Ricky, we got him figured out. He’s gonna throw a fast ball high & outside. Keep your eye on it.
Swing and a miss.
Rick – Rats a curve ball where did that come from.
I have to make hit the next one, or the team is doomed.
Lutz – Whooo didn’t know the pitcher had a curve ball. That thing had a tom of movement on it. Rick, pay attention the thing changes direction as it comes accross the plate. KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL.
Swing and he hits the ball. Its deep, this one could go out of the park. It’s going, it’s going. No wait the wind has changed direction the ball is blowing back into teh park. The outfielder leaps and makes the catch at the wall. Ladies and gentlemen the Mighty GM has stuck out. There is no joy in Detroit.
And so goes the story of Detroit. We have strikes, we have product that looks liek it wil be a home run and then fickle wind of the market changes and sals fizzle out.
Ever wonder why Toyota and Honda’s best sellers are non descript. Because they are like singles. Kind of boring but if you get a lot of them, you win the game
The Volt’s weakness– intrinsic drive train inefficiencies– show up as soon as its battery range is exhausted.
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But the Gen3 Prius due out in 2010 (like the Volt?), may well equal and even eclipse the Volt’s efficiency.
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And Gen3 Prius will easily meet or exceed the Volt’s 50mpg continuous-use projection; Toyota projects a 15 to 20 percent improvement over the Prius’ current 46mpg EPA rating.
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While I don’t necessarily disagree with the overall tone and message of the article, there seem to be some serious assumptions being made here. Does the author actually know that the Gen3 Prius will be 20% more efficient? And that it will easily match the Volt? That seems doubtful, as neither car EVEN EXISTS at this point!
What about the inherent iefficiency of needing to tune an ICE to run in a broad range of RPM (Prius) versus the inherent efficiency of tuning an ICE to run at a constant load at a constant RPM (all generators, like in the Volt)?
Not saying he’s not right on both counts, just pointing out that it’s not always right to try to predict the future so exactly…
Re: ret:
The Gen3 Prius is actually projected to be 32% more efficient.
Source Link
I highly recommend the link, it has data on the torque and output curves of the 2nd-gen Toyota hybrid drive, which will be in the 3rd-gen Prius. The document embodies “the tortoise approach to continuously improved products, processes and technologies” that the author mentions.
Other modifications:
+ Max motor output raised from 33kW to 50kW
+ Max motor torque raised from 350Nm to 400Nm
+ Generator max rpm raised from 6k to 10k
The list goes on…read the link. I’m not saying that GM can’t do these things, but I haven’t heard anything from them, and Toyota is a moving target.
(EDIT: My mistake – this is a document regarding the improvements from the 1st-gen Prius to the 2nd-gen Prius. But the point is the same. GM needs to start showing specifics, and Toyota isn’t standing still either.)
Paul, you hit the nail on the head with this article.
Every time – EVERY TIME – GM tries to do something “high tech” for mass production (often as a Chevrolet), it screws the pooch.
The copper cooled Chevrolet in 1923. The Turboglide automatic (Chevrolet, 1957-1961). The Roto-Hydramatic “Slim Jim” 1961-1964. The Corvair (Chevrolet, again) 1960-69. GM air suspension, 1958-1959 (disasterously bad). The Vega, 1971-1977. The X-cars 1980-1985. GM (Olds) diesel V8’s 1978-1985. Cadillac V8-6-4 1981. Turbohydramatic 200 automatic (especially when put behind a V8 or Olds Diesel V8) with pressed steel planetary gears – 1976-1986. Chevrolet Malibu aluminum brake calipers (absolute JUNK) 1997-2003. The stillborn Wankel engine of 1973, 1974, 1975… never arrived….
So what confidence have I that GM can pull off a Volt hat-trick? (Especially when the “vaporware” batteries required to make it work can’t even get off the assembly line without exploding?)
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/10/02/matsushita-suspends-liion-battery-production-after-fire-at-plant/
why doesn’t GM apply its Allison hybrid transmission design concept to light trucks and cars?
Diesels are great, but try convincing the American buying public of their reliability, given GM’s history in that department.
Was the EV1 really that unprofitable? I assume it’s because they were produced in such low numbers for a small geographic area, and were so well designed that they required little maintenance.
I just see it as one step forward, two steps back in GM’s case.
ret:
Valid points, that I didn’t have space to fully cover:
“Intrinsic drive train inneficiencies” – I did quite a bit of research on this issue. The parallel vs. serial hybrid debate is intense and will not really be fully settled soon. But the greater inneficiency of the serial hybrid once it exhausts its batteries is hard to argue. The losses in the engine, generator, batteries and electric motor exceed the mechanical loss in the parallel (HSD) transmission. The efficiency improvement of the serial (Volt) gas engine running at one (or two) fixed speeds is not enough to make up the difference. The Prius Atkinson cycle runs very efficiently within its range. More details at http://www.greencarcongress.com
Because of problems with the lithium ion batteries, Toyota changed the timeline of the next Prius. Instead of a new 2009 MY Prius, the current one will be facelifted for 2009 and 2010 MY. The 2011 Prius will be the gen3 model. Toyota has said that the goal for efficiency improvement for the gen3 Prius will be 15-20%. They beat or exceeded the improvement goal for gen2 Prius over gen1 Prius. They have a proven track record on meeting their goals.
The current Prius has a 2008 EPA rating of 46 mpg (combined). A 15% improvement = 53 mpg; a 20% improvement = 55 mpg.
GM may try to claim a potentially higher EPA “equivalent” if they factor in the miles driven on electric only. But the higher acquisition cost is the issue I’m focusing on. The Volt concept is interesting and will appeal to some; but the unknowns about battery costs and life will limit its sales.
Prius is now a mainstream car, and no longer being bought just for eco-bragging rights. It’s highly reliable, economical, and reasonably priced. That’s what the Volt is up against.
altoids:
That document actually refers to the gen2 Prius, and its improvement over gen1 Prius (dated 2004).
durailer: “why doesn’t GM apply its Allison hybrid transmission for cars and lght trucks”
It did. The two-mode system I referred two is a scaled down Allison, and is used in the Tahoe, Suburban, and presumably soon, the pick-ups. And a FWD version will be available in the Malibu, Aura and Vue. The problem is GM has acknowledged that it costs $10k.
It’s also what will be going into the Chrysler Aspen, if it (the Aspen) lasts that long.
GM does have one BIG advantage. Would you rather drive a car that looks like a Prius or looks like the Volt (assuming the production Volt looks like the concept)? Who cares which ultimately gets the best gas mileage when the Prius has the sex appeal of a burqa while the Volt looks like a supermodel in Versace.
Well, I personally think that someone else’s comment about the looks of the Volt were right – “looks like a grand piano was dropped on it”.
I LIKE the looks of my Citroen-esque Prius II (my 2nd, 2nd gen Prius – a 2008).
Kind of like a man’s taste in women (and vice versa) – each to their own.
They would be better off developing cleaner diesels for the monster SUV
Or how about one tractable, efficient, absolutely bullet proof four?
It seems the Japanese have traditionally been long term oriented like the bamboo tree that shows nothing above ground for 7 years while it is building a massive root system to support explosive future growth.
US listed companies on the other hand are pressured by Wall Street to deliver on Revenue and Profit growth each quarter. Somehow it’s almost like “boiling the frog” where it adapts to the water temperature until it’s dead.
I don’t know how long it will be before the old Prius starts to cause trouble, as all older cars inevitably do, but when it does, the penny will drop that the cost of maintenance is very very high by comparison, with let’s say, a Corolla of the same age.
Battery replacements, electric motor failures and the obviously super complicated electronic controls are bound to require attention sooner rather than later.
When this becomes general knowledge, it problematic to predict what the used car value of the Prius and for that matter, all the hybrids, will be.
If hybrids get out into the general market and therefore out of the hands of tree huggers and Hollywoods’ prominent personages, they will be judged by the usual standards and will be found wanting.
This may well affect sales of hybrids and with competition from the phenomenally economical and simple to maintain European type diesels, which should be here by 2010, the future may not be anywhere near as rosy as we now think.
The Prius has turned out to be much more reliable than anyone in the repair industry thought possible, but time and mileage marches on.
It remains very much to be seen if the hybrid phenomenon is a blind alley going nowhere – or not.
qa, well said. This is how the Japanese companies have come up from a wrecked and nuked Japan in 1945, to an economic world power.
When everyone was ready to write-off Mitsubishi (when Daimler-Chrysler yanked the rug from under them a couple of years back), I kind of “knew” that Mitsubishi would not fail. Sure enough, momma and pappa came along to save baby. (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Bank).
The problem with diesels is that they’re all turbodiesels. No turbo is cheap in the long run.
Your point about hybrids still stands, I just disagree that diesels will be that much better.
Paul, ret:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but as I understand it, the purpose of all hybrid systems is to smooth out the power demands on the engine, by storing excess power in the batteries during low power demand, and using battery power during high power demand. The ability of the system to keep the engine in the efficient operating range depends on the battery storage capacity.
I’m not familiar with the specifics of Prius operation, but there is no fundamental reason why the power demand on the Prius would be more variable than the Volt, assuming they have similar battery capacities.
With regards to lithiun ion batteries:
This is something I know a little about, since I go to the same school that A123 is spun-off from. The key issue with most battery technologies is electrode surface-area. The surface area is key because that is where the electrochemistry occurs, where the lithium salt touches the carbon. They’ve managed to vastly increase surface area with either nanoporous electrode or a nanoparticle aggregate, created from lithium transition metal phosphates. (Hence their trademark, nanophosphates.) This had been known for some time, the key breakthrough was doping them with zirconium, titanium, niobium, or magnesium. It doesn’t really matter which, although I’m sure they have optimized the blend.
This is an EXPENSIVE technology. Hopefully, mass-production will bring down the cost of nanoparticle synthesis, but the raw material costs can’t be avoided. Lithium is not cheap, zirconium is not cheap, and it will stay that way.
For scientist types, the reference is:
Electronically conductive phospho-olivines as lithium storage electrodes
Sung-Yoon Chung, Jason T. Bloking, Yet-Ming Chiang
Nature Mat. 1, 123 – 128
philbailey, are you forgetting the fact that in Canada, they are using Prius cars as taxicabs and running 250,000 miles before selling them off – without having to replace traction batteries?
I kind of take a little bit of exception to your idea that Prius cars are only bought by posers, geeks, Hollywood types – that is not only a stereotype, but a really stale one.
As mentioned before, I’m now on my 2nd Toyota ever, and my 2nd second generation Prius (2005 and now 2008).
I don’t care if it has 3 gerbils and a rat under the hood in whirley cages to power it – what counts for me is the results.
48 to 50 mpg consistently over 48,200 miles on my 2005. My “high” was a U.P. (Michigan) trip in April of this year, over 800 plus miles, in excess of 56.5 mpg. With 3 adults, hundreds of pounds of luggage and food, 2 guitars, etc. – not all on 55 mph roads, or in towns – some 70 mph expressway. Ideal conditions, yes. 55-65 degrees (no AC needed), snow tires no longer on the car, but nevertheless, you tell me any other mid-sized car which would have done that…. don’t even go there with a diesel Jetta – it’s significantly smaller inside.
0-60 in about 10 seconds. This is “mid-sized family car, V8 performance” for our parents in the 1960’s, and super high performance in the mid 1950’s for anything on the road. As someone wiser than I said recently, “nobody needs to reach 60 mph faster than in 10 seconds.” True enough – virtually the only time it’s even possible on our crowded roads is when there’s nobody else around, and whoopdee doo, if you get to 60 in 7 seconds – who cares? Big frickin’ deal – especially if you’re getting 12 mpg in your “ride” with dwindling fuel supplies and increasing demand worldwide.
The car is comfortable. It seats four very comfortably, five in a (somewhat literal) pinch – “depending upon girth” (sorry – there’s a joke there somewhere).
The car’s flexible. I’ve had a massive 27″ crt HDTV in the box, in the car – trunk closed. I’ve had a new Honda SNOWBLOWER in the car – trunk closed.
Best of all, the car is on the road right now – not pie in the sky, available some day on the by and by.
And it has 12 years of production knowledge behind it, with literally hundreds of millions of miles travelled – by owners, not leasees, like GM’s EV1.
The car is RELIABLE. My 2005 was the most trouble free car I’ve ever owned, and I’ve had over 2 dozen cars in my life. Kudos to Toyota for this extreme reliability – because this is the most COMPLEX automobile on planet earth. Some of the reliability is because electronics are so much more reliable (nowadays) than mechanical stuff…. also Toyota’s ATTENTION TO DETAILS certainly helps.
Prius is a REAL car. Not a niche car anymore.
altoids: It’s not the power demand that will be more variable, but the internal combustion engine rpm range. In the Volt, the generator driving engine will be tuned to operate at one (possibly two) fixed speeds. It will come on (and off) as needed to keep the batteries in their designated state of charge range.
In the Prius, there is some “smoothing out” by the batteries/electric motor, but not to the same extent. At highway cruise, the Prius is mostly running like a conventional car, and (gas) engine speeds vary accordingly.
If you are judging diesel reliability by VWs very poor history in recent times – don’t do it.
Big rigs get a million miles out of their engines and Europeans easily achieve a half million kilometers time and time again.
Unlike hybrids, we just haven’t been exposed to the technology that is now common practice elsewhere. At least, diesels will burn a whole host of alternative fuels.
Hybrid diesels will be a better choice, but the problem of cost of batteries, motors and a host of resident black boxes will still remain.
A taxi, which generates profit every day of its life and IS an investment, unlike private cars, cannot be judged by the same financial standards.
I know that all the hydrid owners will get frothy mouthed about their cars, but I haven’t seen any statistics for the taxi experience and I’ll bet they are not financially impressive.
Among other things, you can’t sell a taxi second hand unless you lie about it so why not flog it to death?
Taxi drivers I know double 250,000 Km (not miles) and they all seem to be driving regular four cylinder Camrys these days, nary a hybrid in sight.
I wonder what these owner drivers know that some of us don’t? Or don’t want to know
Kudos to GM for trying to outfox Toyota, rather than lying down to die. They are experimenting with several new technologies, targeted at various niches. Mild hybrids for the cost conscious, dual mode for heavy vehicles and serials for those of us who commute less than 40-50 miles a day.
This race ain’t over yet, by a long shot.
Phil I think the point of bringing up the Prius taxis is that it’s about the best way I know of to simulate 15 to 20 years of real world use in a much shorter timeframe. Glenn, not sure if this is the one you are talking about but
this guy seems to be on his second one now, after Toyota took the first one back to study. A prius is a little smaller than a camry, or the other common cab cars, not surprised everyone isn’t using them.
I think the main point here is that the early signs indicate the Prius will be very cheap to own for several hundred thousand miles.
SherbornSean: “Kudos to GM for trying to outfox Toyota… This race ain’t over yet, by a long shot.”
Yes it is.
It’s like GM let Toyota get a 250 mile lead in the Indy 500. All GM can do is pray Toyota explodes. Toyota has sold – what? – half a million Priuses? More? Even Ford, with its good, reputedly pretty reliable Escape Hybrid, doesn’t have the mindshare and reputation that Toyota’s got. Even mighty Honda is an also-ran. We see Priuses frequently and everywhere. They run reliably. Toyota OWNS the hybrid market.
This will translate into premium prices and resale value on Toyota hybrids for a generation.
Fast-forward to 2010 … or 2011 … or 2012 and the new Volt is (finally) available. Who wants a first-model year Volt from GM? It makes people nervous to buy a first-model year *conventional* power train vehicle from GM. And very similar capability will either cost more than a 3rd generation Prius or will have to be sold at a loss.
Does GM have some dream that the Volt will have a lock on battery technology and plug-in capability? They won’t. As soon as Li-Ions are available for the Volt, they’re available for the Prius. As soon as they’re ready, Toyota can swap in a hi-capacity battery pack, modify software parameters, add an AC adapter and put a “proven” plug-in Prius on the street. Toyota will be able to market a “Conventional” Prius for current prices and a “Plug-in” Prius for a premium price.
Who put the brakes on hybrids at GM? Heads should roll.
The Hybrid in the Tahoe IS the Allison.. The Hybrid buses in Seattle, Philly and several other major US cities are each saving as much fuel as dozens of Prius'.
The 2-mode is the way to go if you want to go over 50 mph. Have you driven a Prius lately? Why is it OK for Toyota to advance technology even when thy lose money for a few years but if GM does it you say they are wrong?
The Prius is growing volume at 50% per year; how can anybody compete with that? In my opinion the Prius has delivered a knock-out blow to the whole car industry.
My favorite future Prius idea: put in a small high-compression ratio, direct injection engine that runs on ethanol at ~100MPG (okay, maybe 70MPG), combined with a plug-in battery good for 10 miles range and OPEC will be out of business.
Compared to the Prius the Volt seems risky: are those huge batteries really going to be available at low cost and high volume? Currently, the cost is an order of magnitude too high.
Kixstart “Who put the brakes on hybrids at GM? Heads should roll.”
I say, who put the rear drum brakes on the Prius, (The most technically advanced vehicle sold to the general public)?!?! Heads should roll.
DT
The Chevrolet Malibu/Saturn Aura twin hybrids do not cost $10k more than their traditional 4 cylinder counterparts.
The base 4 cyclinder Aura MSRP is $20,395 while the hybrid is $22,770. I suspect that many folks will be willing to part with an extra $2K for the better bas mileage not to mention the hybrid badge.
MPLS: You’re referring to the Aura/Malibu with the BAS (Belt assist) micro-hybrid. The two-mode FWD is still about a year or so off. The mileage improvement with tha BAS system is about 10%. Aura 4 cyl: 22/30; Green Line: 24/33. The return on the extra $2500 is iffy.
philbailey, you are making some misconceptions. The Prius, by design will be more reliable and cost less to repair over a given amount of time or miles than compared to a conventional ICE powered car.
Toyota will pay you $250 to take the dead batteries off your hands. Guess what? Over 10 years now since the first production Prius hit the pavement and there have been no dead batteries yet. Toyota predicts the batteries will last as long as 15 – 20 years. The vast majority of mechanical parts in an average ICE-powered car have a much greater chance of failing than the batteries on the Prius.
Since the Prius uses less mechanical systems, repair costs are lower than a regular car. Electric systems are almost always vastly more reliable than mechanical systems. The brake wear on the Prius is less than a regular car. The engine wear is less than a regular car. Put all these things together and even after 15 or 20 years a Prius will still be cheaper to repair than a regular ICE powered car of equivalent age or miles.
People seem to be forgetting here that Toyota has hybrid versions of just about everything they make either on sale or in the works. IF the Volt turns out not to be a seaming turd, do you really think GM can apply the technoligy to all it’s other cars in time to save itself?
LedFoot : GM loses money on everything they do. And then never get it back.
1169hp: “Who put the rear drum brakes on the Prius…?”
Who cares? Much – most, I believe – of the Prius’ braking is regenerative and has nothing to do with the friction braking system.
KixStart :
Who put the brakes on hybrids at GM? Heads should roll.
Bean counters, it appears. Link to Wired.com article about GM taking apart competitors’ cars, and concluding that the 2nd gen Prius wasn’t worth replicating due to complexity and cost, and to go with hydrogen instead.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.02/teardown.html
Of course, the article came out just before Lutz did the about face on hybrid development.
Funny how GM offers vehicles with improved fuel economy to those who can afford the high price of gasoline. Where is the reasonably priced hybrid Cobalt for people like me who cringe every week when I fill my tank ?
Comparing the Volt to “all electric vehicles” is not a valid comparison. A hybrid – gasoline/electric, diesel/electric or hydraulic/gasoline – does better in the city in terms of mileage, because the internal combustion engines is oftentimes not being used. Mileage is in fact better, for that reason. Range is not a problem.
Hybrids have regenerative braking, which means that as the driver brakes, energy is being put back into the batteries; so the idea that the batteries “have to be re-charged” in the conventional sense of being plugged into an outlet is not part of the deal. Hybrids can go and go and go until the batteries are simply expended. (They think maybe five to seven years, for the batteries in the Prius.)
The best selling point with hybrids, in terms of city driving, is that is where the emissions are lowest, again due to the fact that often as not, only the electric motor is being used to move the vehicle. Because everyone in government is so up in arms about emissions, the biggest (potential) market for hybrids is not in the automotive market, but rather trucks, and Class 6 and bigger. General Motors would be wise to figure out a hybrid drivetrain – a serious one – for its 3/4 and one ton work trucks, as are Peterbilt, Kenworth, International and Mack.
A vehicle that is powered solely by an electric motor, could get stranded in the city, as there is no regenerative process and factors such as extremely cold weather or hills, could deplete the batteries – especially conventional lead acid batteries – in such a short period of time and distance, that unless you could pull into a place with a charger, or carried a portable one, you might have to walk home. That is the key reason that vehicles powered solely by an electric motor or motors, have never caught on with anyone other than True Believers or Hollywood celebrities.
Thing is, studies show that many Americans don’t travel more than 35 miles to-and-from work, so electrics – sole electrics – could fufill most people’s transportation needs. But in places such as Los Angeles, or even Seattle, where the cost of housing is driving people, further and further out, only hybrids can meet people’s needs.
In terms of the economics of hybrids, you could probably call the cost of housing what economists would: an externality.
By the way, the Chevrolet Corvair wasn’t a flop because it didn’t get engineered well; at least not in its last generation. Even Ralph Nader has admitted that, once the General put an anti-sway bar on the rear end, it was fine to drive. But by 1966, it had become so ingrained in people’s minds that it was a death-trap, sales just trickled down to nothing. GM would have killed it sooner, but from what I have read, they didn’t want to look as if they’d given into Mr. Nader.
The Corvair was no more a death trap, than the Volkswagen Beetle of that time, maybe less. But try explaining an anti-sway bar to the average consumer.
Re glenn126 points about the Prius…
0-60 in about 10 seconds. This is “mid-sized family car, V8 performance” for our parents in the 1960’s, and super high performance in the mid 1950’s for anything on the road. As someone wiser than I said recently, “nobody needs to reach 60 mph faster than in 10 seconds.” True enough – virtually the only time it’s even possible on our crowded roads is when there’s nobody else around, and whoopdee doo, if you get to 60 in 7 seconds – who cares? Big frickin’ deal – especially if you’re getting 12 mpg in your “ride” with dwindling fuel supplies and increasing demand worldwide.
Your enthusiasm for the Prius is fine – it’s a fine small car. I’ve driven one with four adults, and while ride and handling deteriorate, it is, like I said, a fine small car.
However, your (and many other Pruis fans’) preoccupation with what’s best for all ( “nobody needs…”) is paternalistic and tiring. If a person values some driving performance and a clutch (and can afford slightly higher gas bills), the Mazda 3 is a BETTER small car (for them).
Your “dwindling fuel supplies” isn’t quite accurate. I think worldwide oil production is still increasing. Doom and gloomers have been predicting the end of the petroleum era for decades. Fortunately, as prices and demand rise, people and excellent firms like Exxon-Mobile respond to incentives (to use less and find more, respectively.)
Bottom line… If I choose to burn $10/gallon gas in my Cayman-S or live in a 5,000 sq. ft. home with $1000/month utility bills, it’s my business as long as I can pay….
Believe it or not there less visonary companies out there than GM! Renault staunchly refuses to make a hybrid of their own claiming that diesels can get the same mpg and are cheaper, causually forgetting about the increase in NOx and carbon monoxide fumes. A hybrid is more than higher mpg; a car working from the electric motor means very little (if any) emissions are emitted. Something a diesel can’t do, not by a long shot.
In fact, Carlos “I know jack about cars but know a lot about bean counting” Ghosn recently said in an interview, when there was a drop in the rise of sales of hybrids, that “he was feeling particularly smug that the hybrid hype was dying”*. Needless to say, how smug is he feeling now that hybrid are no longer hype and killing diesels? And YOU thought GM was arrogant?!
Anyway back to GM. If GM bring the Chevrolet Volt to production, I’ll be impressed. GM do have a bit of a tendency of letting concept cars die on their arse. Trouble is, they’ll will be about 10 years behind the Prius and Toyota also has a tendency of building a loyal fanbase (Camry, Corolla etc) mainly through reliable products and a pleasant ownership. One only has to look at Mr Glenn126 for evidence of that. I, myself, like Toyota products due to the years of trouble free motoring I’ve had with them (Honda also has a special place in my affections). I’ve said it before that organic growth takes longer, but reaps bigger rewards.
GM could also see its future in diesels. Now diesels do have their place in the world and are good technologies. But GM now need to think bigger. Staying with old technologies are for companies like Renault. For GM to beat Toyota, it needs to emulate Toyota. Toyota is seen as a visionary thinker, pushing forward new technologies and greener cars (In Europe, Toyota said they will be stopping sales of the Land Crusier (HUGE SUV) and increasing the price of the RAV4 (cute SUV) to meet CO2 fleet emissions). Now what better way of showing the world “The New GM” than to beat Toyota to the next new technology?
Personally, I’ve got renewed hope, that GM can pull this off due to the legecy costs being eased off them. Actually, let me rephrase that. I hope GM pull this off, because if they don’t, I’ll be interested to hear what their excuse will be……
* = paraphrasing
All you diesel fanboys should get to really know the european used car market. The most famous diesel engine that everybody talks about is the VW-Audi 1.9TDI in its different versions. This is the engine that started the diesel revolution in the mid 90’s in Europe. Was the engine ahead of its time 10 years ago? Yes. Was the fuel consumption lower than gasoline engines with similar size? Yes. Did those engines have huge amounts of torque? Yes.
BUT
Is this engine prone to failure? Yes. Is the 1.9TDI powerband very limited? Yes.
I will list here few VERY typical problems with VW-Audi 1.9TDI. Those problems are so common that all VW Audi forums have special topics and even sections for each of those problems. All of those problems start to appear after 50-60k miles. The new 2.0TDI has been in production for only few years, I don’t have any info on this engine yet.
This 1.9TDI is the most common diesel engine to this date in Europe. Still produced on cheaper VW-s, Skodas and Seats.
1. Turbcharger failure. They quit in about 60-100k miles. Complicated Variable Nozzle turbos – nozzles will get stuck, or break, shafts will break, wastegates get stuck etc. New turbocharger costs about 1500 USD.
2. All the electronic parts. MAF- mass aiflow meters fail. N75 vacum valves break that control the turbocharger. Various vacum leaks.
3. Clogging of various parts in the intake system – EGR, intake itself.
4. Headgaskets are prone to failure with some versions of the 1.9TDI
And the list goes on.
And if the 1.9TDI is very problematic, then with VW-Audi 2.5TDI you can multiply the horror by ten. Mega expensive timing belt changes every 50k miles, AND at 100k miles you need to replace all four camshafts because the camshaft wear!!! etc…
Turbocharger failure is common with all diesel engines(not only VW), lifespan of a thrust/journal bearing (most common on diesel engines) turbocharger is maxium about 100k miles. Even less with extended drain intervalls with longlife oils (20k miles without changing oil). And for example diesel injector failure is very common with BMW diesel engines after 100k miles (3.0d). Very costly to replace. This is hands-on real experience from my friends who work in different service departments(VW, BMW, Audi).
So think twice before you start talking about bulletproof long lasting diesel engines. Compared to Prius engine system the 1.9TDI is a nightmare.
Mr Brock_Landers,
Don’t misunderstand me, here, I’m on your side being pro-hybrid, but how many of those faults on the 1.9 TDI powertrains were due to poor quality diesel, VW’s shoddy reliability etc rather than inherent design flaws?
Isn’t shoddy reliability partially a design flaw? :) In Europe we don’t really have poor quality diesel. All diesel fuel that is sold in stations is with exactly the same standard.
Mr Brock_Landers,
What I was getting at was that maybe the design works on papers, but due to “bean counting” the parts selected weren’t up to the job, but higher quality parts could make the powertrain work?
As for diesel, I wouldn’t be too sure of that. One only has to look at tne supermarket fuel problems to show that not all fuels can be the same. Fuels in the UK, only have to meet one standard (BSEN590, I think?). Which means it has to be refined to the same standard as other diesels. It makes no mention, that diesels should contain detergents to clean the engine. Supermarket fuels don’t have the same detergents (if any) as say, BP or Shell. Which makes engines running on supermarket diesels more prone to clogging injectors etc.
Just a thought. :O)
# ihatetrees :
Bottom line… If I choose to burn $10/gallon gas in my Cayman-S or live in a 5,000 sq. ft. home with $1000/month utility bills, it’s my business as long as I can pay….
Interesting perspective… unfortunately only a very limited proportion of the world’s population can live like that on this planet. Your ability to afford it is necessarily dependent on the (permanent) inability of many thousands of others not to. That is not a situation that all those others are likely to tolerate for a long time. The level of military dominance needed to maintain that disparity over time is not matched by America’s financial capacity to pay for it. I wonder what the economic consequences of the war in Iraq will be?
The oft-repeated claim that the Prius has been around a long time and battery failure hasn’t been a problem, seems to miss the point somewhat.
I’ve never had a cellphone or laptop battery fail. They do however degrade to the point of uselessness (i.e. they store less and less energy).
The controller in the Prius must be constantly aware of the battery’s capacity and use it accordingly to maximise the MPG (running on battery at low speed, regenerative breaking, etc etc). As the battery capacity degrades the controller must take this in it’s stride, but less capacity will mean less scope for MPG-boosting energy swapping.
So my question: Is battery failure a red-herring and is gradual degradation of the hybrid efficiency a problem? I.e. will a Prius get progressively less MPG as the battery ages?
Just a thought.
cheers
Malcolm
malcolmmacaulay :
I.e. will a Prius get progressively less MPG as the battery ages?
Yes. Like every other car on the road today. The older it is the more it’ll degrade. A Toyota Prius can do many things, but stop time?
OK, I should have asked a supplementary question: How significant is the reduction? A well-maintained/tuned conventional ICE car will still get good MPG, even with high mileage. A hybrid system has much more to lose, as a significant part of its MPG advantage stems from the battery storage (which can degrade quickly – like your cellphone).
At 100k miles of typical driving, by how much has the MPG of a Prius reduced? I know the Prius uses only a very narrow band of the battery capacity (something like 45 – 75%).
cheers
Malcolm
malcolmmacaulay :
I’ve never had a cellphone or laptop battery fail. They do however degrade to the point of uselessness (i.e. they store less and less energy).\
That’s definitely a problem with lithium ion batteries, that they all lose capacity over time. Not as big a problem with NiMH cells used in the Prius and other HEV’s, as long as the cells aren’t kept at a constant voltage.
JDM and EU Priuses have a button that enables electric-only mode for a couple of miles, and probably results in marked battery drain. This feature is not available in the US and thought to be due to the longer battery warranty mandated here.
I’d say that the battery in the Prius (at least, for US and Canada consumption) is “extra-protected” and therefore the long-life deterioration should be less than cars sold in Europe, etc. Perhaps the Vancouver taxi outfit is able to answer the question, but my “guess” is that had it been a problem, the same taxi outfit would not have bothered with replacing a Prius – with a Prius.
This situation of battery life for the US/Canada is because Toyota refuses to put the “EV” button on cars for this market, because the engineers probably know that excessive use of this stresses the battery more.
There is another slight difference between “Euro” market Prius cars and US/Canada cars, and that is the fact that “Euro” market cars actually do have rear disc brakes. But driving is much more “spirited” there, with more emergency braking used per week than might be used in typical US/Canadian driving in a month (I know this, I’ve lived in the UK for 9 years out of my 50 on earth and visited Europe).
So, Toyota were “dumb like a fox” by putting drum brakes on US/Canadian spec cars – because drum brakes have less friction/are therefore more efficient, the Prius regenerative braking helps to reduce brake component wear to a minimum (I understand brakes may last the life of the car in some circumstances – 250,000 miles or more), and no customer has probably complained about rear drum brakes (especially if they don’t know the Euro spec Prius has rear discs) – they just care that when they put the brakes on, they work!
By the way, the Prius drum brakes are on the REAR of the car only, for the US/Canadian markets (possibly JDM market, also?) – front brakes on all Prius cars are disc brakes, worldwide. Sorry for any confusion by my not clarifying that salient fact!