#spyker

Spyker has set the goal of turning a profit with its newly-purchased Saab division by 2012, reports Automotive News [sub]. That effort will be led by a total of three Saab products: the existing 9-3 (with a new version rumored for 2011), the forthcoming 9-5 sedan and, later next year, the GM-built Saab 9-4X Crossover. Other models, including a 9-1 compact are being hinted at, but Spyker acknowledges that such a product would require about a billion dollars more than Saab-Spyker currently has access to. Meanwhile, those three vehicles will have to generate 100k-125k annual sales in order to keep the business plan rolling along. Saab-Spyker honcho Victor Muller has an almost shockingly confident take on this possibility, telling Reuters:

It’s all about the restoration of the confidence in the company. Customers have been very reluctant to buy because of the uncertainty surrounding the brand… Saab has to do nothing but regain its existing and old customers because that in itself would be in enough to create a very strong business model..

Saab sold a total of 8,680 vehicles in the US over the course of 2009. Globally, the firm sold 39,903 units last year, down from 94,751 in 2008. Perhaps the challenge is a bit more difficult than Muller lets on.

So you thought the Saab deal is done? A deal is never done until the check clears. Speaking of clearing, Laurence Stassen, a member of the European Parliament, and a member of the Dutch Partij voor de Vrijheid (a right-of-the-center party in the Netherlands) is seeking clarification from Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes.

Vrouw Stassen wants to know if there is any forbidden state aid involved in the Saab/Spyker deal, the Dutch news site NU.NL reports. The Swedish government guarantees a loan of €400m, which Spyker then is supposed to get from the European Investment Bank. Spyker is, well, banking on that money.

Here’s a situation in a hypothetical tense for you. If you were the CEO of a car company which never made a profit in 11 years and you offered to pay $74 million for a car company which hasn’t made a profit since 2001 and had a badly damaged brand, how would you expect your share price to go? Trust me, you’re not even close. MarketWatch.com reports that Spyker shares soared as much as 74% when they announced they had reached an agreement to buy Saab from General Motors. Spyker’s market capitalisation is now €107 million, four times more than when GM first put Saab up for sale.

It’s been a looooong wait and lots of nail biting for Saab employees and Saab enthusiasts around the world, but GM and Spyker have reached a preliminary agreement on a Saab sale. The deal includes amongst other things the rights to the Saab brand of course, the Trollhättan production facilities (which was important to Spyker – more on that in a bit), the rights to produce and sell the existing 9-3’s, the new 9-5 and 9-4x models. Former Saab CEO Jan-Åke Jonsson, who was let go when the liqudation of Saab started, will be reinstated as CEO. He, and Spykers CEO Victor Muller have been named the heroes of this deal – Jonsson for his endurance and stamina “He didn’t walk out the back-door as liquidation started – instead he started nightly negotiations, writes Aftonbladet.se in a tribute to Jonssons’ role. And Spyker’s Muller’s charm and persistence have also been mentioned as a crucial part in securing Saab from GM.

A lot of what we have written in the last few days, even what we have not yet written, is utterly wrong, say the objects of our writings. Here are the denials of the day.

At least now we know how Saab will die. But Spyker CEO Victor Muller’s unfortunate choice of metaphors isn’t the only indication in his interview with the WSJ Deal Journal that Saab will die on the operating table. Take, for example, his answer to the question “Why does Spyker want to buy Saab?”

Saab has 1,100 dealers world-wide. If we sold Spykers in just 5% of those dealers, we would be tripling our distribution base. Saab also has access to technologies that would be ideal for Spyker, such as an all-wheel drive system. Also, a company that should sell 100,000 cars a year has very high purchasing power and get parts cheaper than a company that wants to make 100 cars a year.

Emphasis on wants to make 100 cars per year (they sold fewer than 50 last year). And yet, somehow Muller “hopes to model a Saab acquisition after Audi’s successful take over of Lamborghini in 1997.” Except that Saab ain’t Lambo and Spyker ain’t exactly Audi. Meanwhile, Muller also seems to think that Saab can survive on “quirk” alone, and he does some confused back-pedaling on his racially-charged statements about Saab and Spyker. The saga continues.

Despite the flood of clumsy eulogies and “don’t worry about the Saab dealer, he owns a Porsche shop” stories making their way into the local media (usually a good sign of a sure thing), Saab may still have some kind of chance at survival (in some form). According to Spyker spokesfolks [via AFP],

Spyker has been in contact with GM today and continues to develop its proposal for the purchase of Saab. Spyker has extended the validity of its proposal therefore until further notice

Merbanco claims to have a new offer as well, as Saabsunited.com reports that they are working with a Swedish consortium that “does not wish to be identified unless they are successful in the bidding.” GM has not issued a statement about Saab today, perhaps because the release writers were too busy with the announcements of a new CFO and the Chevy Equinox’s victory in an “Urban Truck Of The Year” competition.

GM’s CEO and Chairman Ed Whitacre confirmed today that Dutch boutique sportscar firm Spyker is the only bidder for what’s left of Saab after the BAIC deal. Saab insiders insist that the firm can continue without the old tooling and technology sold to BAIC, and they still have their hopes pinned on the new 9-5 model. But, as the WSJ reports, Spyker earned a mere €7.9m in 2008 revenue, and has already endured an €8.7m net loss in the first half of this year. Spyker’s in no position to be saving struggling Swedish automakers. But behind Spyker is Convers Group, a Russian banking group with deep pockets… and a uniquely Russian reputation.

With the intellectual property and tooling for 9-5 and 9-3 models headed for Beijing, there’s less to Saab than ever. Sort of. The BAIC deal actually proved to be less dramatic than previously thought, netting the Swedish GM subsidiary a mere $197m according to Automotive News [sub]. BAIC had just obtained a $2.93b line of credit with Bank of China, so there was nothing stopping them from buying more… except GM’s unwillingness to hand over modern platforms. What BAIC did get out of the deal still isn’t entirely clear, but what is clear is that GM has received nothing from the Saab sale so far. That $197m was deposited into Saab’s Swedish account, according to sources speaking to di.se.

A few days ago I captured some news from Swedish Aftonbladet.se that Beijing Auto (BAIC) is buying Saab’s now to be replaced 9-5 technology. Even though the Koenigsegg-Saab deal fell apart, and BAIC were a part of the investor group, the Chinese has not given up the idea to build Saabs in China. At the time I couldn’t find any other reports on this, and wondered wether Aftonbladet had done some creative journalism, but yesterday, Nyteknik.se reported the same news, citing their own sources. They’ve even confronted Saab’s spokesperson Gunilla Gustavs, but of course she can not, will not comment on that.

GM decided to grant Saab 30 days worth of life support to await new potential buyers. If no buyer is found within 30 days, then Saab is a goner. That’s the message all Saab workers and enthusiasts were given yesterday, to a certain relief. GM and Saab have confirmed there are potential buyers out there, but who are they? Who’s in, who’s out?