As a journalist, if you ask an OEM rep about any given car’s redesign or next generation, you’ll undoubtedly be met with a terse “we don’t comment on future product plans”. But if you’re an analyst? Different story.

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Just when you thought shares of Ford and GM can’t get any lower, major brokerage Morgan Stanley “lowered its 2012 U.S. auto sales projections by about 3 percent and cut its earnings-per-share estimates for the North American auto sector due to weaker-than-expected sales in the United States and Europe,”Reuters says.

For what it’s worth, Morgan expects U.S. auto sales to be 14.4 million this year, down from its earlier projection of 14.8 million.  What is more disconcerting is Morgan’s outlook on financials of U.S. makers. (Read More…)

Japan is, after China, the world’s second largest car producer. In the first ten days after the March 11^th earthquake and tsunami, the Japanese auto industry lost approximately 65 percent of its capacity. That is 338,000 units. Toyota alone has lost production of about 140,000 vehicles since March 14, says AP [via MSNBC]. What will happen next? Will it affect us, and how?

Amongst banks and brokers, staid Morgan Stanley is one of the respected ones. Morgan Stanley always had a presence in Asia and manages many Asian funds. Japan’s Mitsubishi bank owns 21 percent.  Morgan Stanley has no interest in talking Japan down. However, in a 34 page research note, sent out today, titled “Japanese Earthquake: Global Supply Chain Implications”, Morgan Stanley paints a dark picture: “A prolonged disruption of Japanese component supply could have a significant impact on 2011 auto production and profitability.” Not just in Japan, the world over. It is likely to depress sales: “ The impact on US SAAR could be severe in May.”

Instead of editorializing, let’s just give you the salient parts. You may want to have a stiff drink first. And your broker’s phone number nearby. (Read More…)