The Truth About Cars » January 2013 The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. Sun, 27 Jul 2014 20:45:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars no The Truth About Cars (The Truth About Cars) 2006-2009 The Truth About Cars The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars » January 2013 Volkswagen Reports Strong January Fri, 15 Feb 2013 13:30:07 +0000

Volkswagen raced into the new year, and any silent hopes by the competition that the Wolfsburg juggernaut would finally be slowed down by the drag called Europe were dashed. Europe’s largest carmakers began the year with a 14.9 percent increase, delivering nearly 100,000 units more worldwide than in January 2012.

Volkswagen global group deliveries January 2013
1M’13 1M’12 YoY Jan’13 Jan’12 YoY
Total 749,900 652,400 14.9% 749,900 652,400 14.9%
Europe 252,200 259,900 -3.0% 252,200 259,900 -3.0%
Ger 73,900 74,100 -0.2% 73,900 74,100 -0.2%
WEur ex D 138,100 144,400 -4.4% 138,100 144,400 -4.4%
EEur 40,200 41,400 -2.9% 40,200 41,400 -2.9%
China 298,300 208,200 43.3% 298,300 208,200 43.3%
USA 42,700 36,700 16.2% 42,700 36,700 16.2%
South Am 77,300 78,100 -0.9% 77,300 78,100 -0.9%
Black: VW data. Blue: TTAC calculated
Including Porsche from August 1,  2012. Excluding MAN and Scania

In January, Volkswagen sold 7,700 fewer units in Europe, a drop in the proverbial bucket compared to the 90,100 units it sold more in China and the U.S.

In its communique, the company went to great pains to explain that “the sizable increase in China” was “due to the later date set for the Chinese New Year.” The company warned that “for February, we expect a decline in deliveries in China as a result of this special effect.” In China, Volkswagen sold 298,300 units in January, missing GM’s 310,765 by a hair.

Volkswagen continues to receive TTAC’s kudos for spin-free reporting of numbers. If there is a minus in front of a percent, Volkswagen does not hide the number, as another large automaker still does.

Volkswagen January deliveries, by brand
1M’13 1M’12 YoY Jan’13 Jan’12 YoY
Volkswagen Passenger Cars 491,900 419,100 17.4% 491,900 419,100 17.4%
Audi 111,800 96,100 16.3% 111,800 96,100 16.3%
Porsche 12,100 12,100
ŠKODA 69,500 75,400 -7.8% 69,500 75,400 -7.8%
SEAT 25,900 21,700 19.1% 25,900 21,700 19.1%
Volkswagen Commercial 37,900 39,500 -4.0% 37,900 39,500 -4.0%

Among Volkswagen’s brands, Seat surprises with a 19.1% plus. Volkswagen explains the sudden drop at Skoda with “the market launch of the new Octavia.” Audi’s strong sales go mostly on account of China (37,700 units, +38.5 percent) and the U.S. (10,100 units, +7.5 percent)

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TTAC Readers Get Rich By Following This Simple And Free System Thu, 07 Feb 2013 14:49:56 +0000

Did you do what we told you and collect bets on China’s auto market in January? Even if you usually disagree with TTAC, even if you only read TTAC ten times a day to see what scandalous biased stuff we write, this time, you should have followed our advice. China’s new cars sales in January were up 46.38 percent as compared to January 2012, says China’s manufacturers association CAAM. How did we see that coming?

Experience. With that under the belt, it is fairly easy to predict big sales swings. You too can be a winning analyst, just by reading TTAC.

Even Japanese automakers that had a bit of a rough time since September 2012 can report positive numbers in that market. Reuters drew a nifty picture.

This picture, also by Reuters, is much more interesting. It shows that a Chinese car market that had rocketed up in the second half of the last decade is essentially flat at a high level. Not the bursting bubble that had been prognosticated by the Glenn Becks and Gordon Changs of this world. Also no continuation of the steep trajectory. China is driving sideways.

Since 2010, new auto sales in China were stuck below the 20 million barrier. At 19,306,400 units sold in 2012, this level is still intact. The CAAM hopes to pierce it this year, but not by much.

Now, do you want to make some money? Here is another great bet: Show your friends the huge Chinese gains in January. Then, take the contrarian position and bet that percentage-wise, sales in February will be WAY down. Do it, and send us 10 percent of your winnings. You cannot go wrong. Trust us. Again.

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You Saw It Coming: GM’s China Sales Wayyyyyyyyy Up! Except For …. Tue, 05 Feb 2013 15:04:41 +0000  

Needs a lift

Three days ago, I showed you how to become a clairvoyant without even trying, or just by reading TTAC.  If you followed my simple method of predicting the Chinese market in January and February, you could now collect on your first bet. GM, our patent-pending sales oracle for the Chinese market reports humongous sales, and an “all-time record month in China.” Is that the big turn-around?

Forgetting to say what the nice man from Toyota had told Reuters, namely that January numbers are complete off-kilter due to the Chinese New Year, GM celebrates a new record.  After Toyota had announced a 23.5 percent January gain in China, only months after one did risk life and car when caught with a Japanese car on China’s streets, GM announced a 26 percent increase for January.

This was doubly easy. First, because of the CNY-effect, explained on Saturday.  And second, because January 2011 (again, Chinese New Year at work) was so bad that GM had to employ is best spinmeisters to hide it. Compared with that month, all car sales news coming from China will be glorious, trust me. Just like February will be awful, trust me.

GM China January 2013
Jan’13 YoY
GM China 310,765 26.0%
Shanghai GM 154,220 24.3%
Buick 86,509 21.7%
Chevrolet 66,141 21.6%
Cadillac 1,570 -47.4%
SAIC-GM-Wuling 151,819 26.6%
Wuling 144,801 35.9%
Baojun 7,018
FAW-GM 4,490 84.5%
Black: GM data. Blue: Calculated from historical GM data

Despite generous help from the Chinese calendar, not everything is rosy. Cadillac sales are half of what they were in that horrible January 2012, a fact that GM tries to conceal. For each brand GM gives us a positive percentage number down to one decimal. For Cadillac, we are told: ”Cadillac luxury vehicle sales in China totaled 1,570 units in January.” There is no comparison. Someone who has been covering GM for a while knows: No percentage given, that means it’s a disaster. It is, Cadillac sales in China are down 47.4 percent.

Unimaginable what the GM press release will look like when the numbers for a (percentage-wise) truly horrible February will be announced next month. I recommend extending the Chinese New Year vacation.

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France Is Going Down On Us Fri, 01 Feb 2013 16:45:36 +0000

If anyone is hoping for a turn-around of the European car market, be it Opel, PSA, or Pch101, January definitely was not the month it happened. Some people, who get paid a lot of money for a very long-term vision, believe we have to wait years for the turn-around. The French car market dropped  15 percent in January, with “Volkswagen and U.S. carmakers leading the drop,” Reuters reports. Massive sales subsidies of 2,000 euros ($2,700) per car, reintroduced in October in Spain,  could not reverse the Spanish market. It dropped 9.6 percent.

In France, sales of PSA Peugeot Citroen, were down 16.7 percent.  PSA’s partner GM “fared worse,” says Reuters. Combined French registrations by General Motors dropped 21.2 percent. Ford sales plummeted 35.3 percent in France. Volkswagen group sales  were down 23.9 percent.

Renault did beat the market with only a 7.4 percent drop. Reuters says this was due to “a 9.9 percent gain for its low-cost Dacia brand, as scarce buyers gravitated to “crisis cars” such as the no-frills Sandero compact and Duster SUV.”

Sales in Italy fell 17.58 percent in January to 113,525 vehicles.

Germany will publish sales on Monday.

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