By on June 2, 2012

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 13.0% 14.0% 36.0% 14.3 3.8% 9.0% 12.8%
2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 17.0% 11.0% 33.0% 14.5 5.2% 11.0% 16.2%
3 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 11.0% 9.4% 40.0% 14.2 3.0% 13.6% 16.6%
4 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 11.0% 16.0% 42.0% 14.4 4.5% 15.0% 19.5%
5 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 15.0% 10.0% 38.0% 14.4 4.5% 15.0% 19.5%
6 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 13.0% 12.0% 44.0% 14.4 4.5% 17.0% 21.5%
7 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 16.0% 15.0% 42.0% 14.4 4.5% 19.0% 23.5%
8 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 18.0% 11.0% 41.0% 14.4 4.5% 20.0% 24.5%
9 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 15.0% 15.0% 45.0% 14.6 6.0% 21.0% 27.0%
10 Joseph Spak (RBC) 16.0% 10.0% NA 14.4 4.5% 108.0% 112.5%
11 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA NA NA 14.2 3.0% 300.0% 303.0%
12 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.3 3.8% 300.0% 303.8%
13 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 14.4 4.5% 300.0% 304.5%
14 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.4 4.5% 300.0% 304.5%
Average 15.0% 12.0% 40.0% 14.4
Actual 11.0% 13.0% 30.0% 13.8

The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.

Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment. (Read More…)

By on May 1, 2012

Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot. (Read More…)

By on April 4, 2012

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

 

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79%
2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24%
4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% 14.3 5.30% 21.44% 26.74%
5 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) -5.9% 13.0% 27.0% 14.2 5.96% 21.74% 27.70%
6 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) -3.9% 5.6% 25.0% 14.5 3.97% 29.14% 33.12%
7 Joseph Spak (RBC) -5.2% 8.0% 24.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.04% 35.67%
8 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) -4.0% 8.7% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.14% 35.77%
9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) -5.8% 5.6% 25.0% 13.8 8.61% 31.04% 39.65%
10 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) -5.6% 3.4% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 36.04% 42.67%
11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
12 Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)  NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
13 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)  NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
14 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
16 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
17 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA  NA   NA 13.8 8.61% 300.00% 308.61%
Average -4.8% 9.4% 26.0% 14.2
Actual 1.1% 14.3% 40.4% 15.1

 

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million. (Read More…)

By on January 5, 2012

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”). (Read More…)

By on December 2, 2011

November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did worse. (Read More…)

By on November 1, 2011

US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being.  13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare? (Read More…)

By on November 1, 2011
Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR
George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.9
Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.5% 4.1% 24.0% 13.0
Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)  NA NA  NA 13.1
Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)  NA NA  NA 13.1
Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.2% 7.5% 20.0% 13.2
Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.2
Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 8.7% 6.5% 35.0% 13.2
Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA  NA 13.3
Brian Johnson (Barclays) 4.3% 8.8% 19.0% 13.3
Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 7.1% 1.8% NA 13.3
Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA NA  NA 13.4
Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 4.7% 7.4% 33.0% 13.4
Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.9% 8.0% 27.0% 13.4
Seth Weber (RBC) 9.2% 8.6% 36.0% 13.4
Average 6.7% 6.6% 28.0% 13.2

Today, October new car sales will be announced, and they are expected to be good. Analysts polled by Bloomberg show rare unity: They expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate of sales (SAAR)  of 13.2 million on average, and the spread is only 500,000. Likewise, analysts agree that Ford and GM will each add around 6 percent in sales, whereas Chrysler will jump by around 28 percent. (Read More…)

By on October 1, 2011

September Light Vehicle sales, which will be out on Monday, could rise to levels not seen since April, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg reckon. The consensus average stands at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12.8 million units. The people who have the real time sales data even think it’s a bit higher: Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds figures 12.9 million SAAR, Jesse Toprak of  Truecar even expects 13.1 million. And guess who saved the American bacon? The Japanese. (Read More…)

By on September 2, 2011

 

This is round two of TTAC’s “Grade The Analysts”. Last time, we graded only on how closely analysts hit the SAAR number (table provided by Bloomberg.). If we would have done this this time, all would have received an A or better. The guesses were THAT close. The overall SAAR  for August was 12.1 million, and none of the analysts did bet on less than 11.9 or better than 12.3. Instead of giving them all gold stars, we made it a bit more interesting. (Read More…)

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