The Truth About Cars » Grade The Analysts http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. Sun, 07 Feb 2016 18:00:45 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.4 The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars no The Truth About Cars editors@ttac.com editors@ttac.com (The Truth About Cars) 2006-2009 The Truth About Cars The Truth About Cars » Grade The Analysts http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/wp-content/themes/ttac-theme/images/logo.gif http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Wins In Photo Finish http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/05/grade-the-analysts-jessica-caldwell-wins-in-photo-finish/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/05/grade-the-analysts-jessica-caldwell-wins-in-photo-finish/#comments Thu, 02 May 2013 13:41:32 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=487107 We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking.  It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at […]

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We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking.  It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at […]

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Grade The Analysts: Conservative Bankers Trounce Exuberant Specialists http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/grade-the-analysts-conservative-bankers-trounce-exuberant-specialists/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/grade-the-analysts-conservative-bankers-trounce-exuberant-specialists/#comments Sat, 02 Mar 2013 10:13:57 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=479687   This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault. Top Ranked Analysts, February 2013 Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR […]

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  This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault. Top Ranked Analysts, February 2013 Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR […]

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Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Crowned Most Reliable Analyst Of 2012 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/01/grade-the-analysts-jessica-caldwell-crowned-most-reliable-analyst-of-2012/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/01/grade-the-analysts-jessica-caldwell-crowned-most-reliable-analyst-of-2012/#comments Fri, 04 Jan 2013 15:37:04 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=472348 If your life, career, wealth, or all of the above depend on forecasting the auto market with precision and reliability, then you can do no better than securing the services of Edmunds’ chief analyst Jessica Caldwell. Last year’s winner of the coveted  “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”)  does it again: Jessica Caldwell wins […]

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If your life, career, wealth, or all of the above depend on forecasting the auto market with precision and reliability, then you can do no better than securing the services of Edmunds’ chief analyst Jessica Caldwell. Last year’s winner of the coveted  “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”)  does it again: Jessica Caldwell wins […]

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Dark Horse Best Analyst Of The Month http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/12/dark-horse-best-analyst-of-the-month/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/12/dark-horse-best-analyst-of-the-month/#comments Wed, 05 Dec 2012 11:14:29 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=469180 Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who […]

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Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who […]

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Grade The Analysts: Banker Blows Away Super-Sandy http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/11/grade-the-analysts-banker-blows-away-super-sandy/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/11/grade-the-analysts-banker-blows-away-super-sandy/#comments Fri, 02 Nov 2012 17:24:31 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=465761 Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 6.0% 1.0% 10.0% 14.6 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 4.7% 3.5% […]

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Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 6.0% 1.0% 10.0% 14.6 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 4.7% 3.5% […]

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Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Beats Toprak By A Hair http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/10/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-beats-toprak-by-a-hair/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/10/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-beats-toprak-by-a-hair/#comments Wed, 03 Oct 2012 10:47:05 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=462563 Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 1.9% 0.7% 8.4% 14.4 3.6% 4.5% 8.1% 2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 2.5% 1.3% 8.1% 14.6 2.3% 6.0% 8.3% 3 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 3.7% 2.2% 6.1% 14.5 2.9% 10.1% 13.0% 4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 1.0% 1.6% 4.4% 14.4 3.6% 9.5% […]

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Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 1.9% 0.7% 8.4% 14.4 3.6% 4.5% 8.1% 2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 2.5% 1.3% 8.1% 14.6 2.3% 6.0% 8.3% 3 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 3.7% 2.2% 6.1% 14.5 2.9% 10.1% 13.0% 4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 1.0% 1.6% 4.4% 14.4 3.6% 9.5% […]

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Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries August, Hits SAAR Bullseye http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/09/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-carries-august-hits-saar-bullseye/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/09/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-carries-august-hits-saar-bullseye/#comments Wed, 05 Sep 2012 14:56:05 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=459053 August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.4% 9.8% 12.0% 14.5 0.2% 8.8% 9.0% 2 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 1.6% 11.0% 16.0% […]

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August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 6.4% 9.8% 12.0% 14.5 0.2% 8.8% 9.0% 2 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 1.6% 11.0% 16.0% […]

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Grade The Analysts: Deutscher Banker Wins While Fleet Sales Trip Up Real-Timers http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/08/grade-the-analysts-deutscher-banker-wins-while-fleet-sales-trip-up-real-timers/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/08/grade-the-analysts-deutscher-banker-wins-while-fleet-sales-trip-up-real-timers/#comments Thu, 02 Aug 2012 10:41:56 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=455270   They called the market correctly, but they did bet on the wrong horses. Bloomberg polled the usual  assemblage of analysts regarding the final tally of July new car sales, and the analysts did not disappoint  when it came to the overall market. On average, they nailed the July SAAR of 14.1 million. When it […]

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  They called the market correctly, but they did bet on the wrong horses. Bloomberg polled the usual  assemblage of analysts regarding the final tally of July new car sales, and the analysts did not disappoint  when it came to the overall market. On average, they nailed the July SAAR of 14.1 million. When it […]

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Grade The Analysts: Audacious Apprentice Takes Top Spot http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/07/grade-the-analysts-audacious-apprentice-takes-top-spot/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/07/grade-the-analysts-audacious-apprentice-takes-top-spot/#comments Wed, 04 Jul 2012 12:41:46 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=451215   Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 12.0% 8.0% 18.0% 14.0 0.6% 6.1% 6.7% 2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 8.7% 4.4% 19.0% 13.9 1.3% 10.3% 11.6% 3 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 6.4% 7.1% 18.0% 13.8 2.0% 10.9% 12.9% 4 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 7.3% 1.4% 20.0% 13.9 […]

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  Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 12.0% 8.0% 18.0% 14.0 0.6% 6.1% 6.7% 2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 8.7% 4.4% 19.0% 13.9 1.3% 10.3% 11.6% 3 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 6.4% 7.1% 18.0% 13.8 2.0% 10.9% 12.9% 4 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 7.3% 1.4% 20.0% 13.9 […]

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Analyst Who Can’t Shoot Straight Sinks Car Stocks http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/06/analyst-who-cant-shoot-straight-sinks-car-stocks/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/06/analyst-who-cant-shoot-straight-sinks-car-stocks/#comments Thu, 21 Jun 2012 17:53:53 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=449747 TTAC’s advisor in cross-cultural affairs, Frau Schmitto-san, advises me that “itay” means “pain” in Japanese. Nomen est omen: Pessimistic remarks of an analyst named “Itay” sent car stocks down this morning. By mid day, Ford had dropped 19 cents, GM lost 53 cents. All because Citi analyst Itay Michaeli thinks the car market may not […]

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TTAC’s advisor in cross-cultural affairs, Frau Schmitto-san, advises me that “itay” means “pain” in Japanese. Nomen est omen: Pessimistic remarks of an analyst named “Itay” sent car stocks down this morning. By mid day, Ford had dropped 19 cents, GM lost 53 cents. All because Citi analyst Itay Michaeli thinks the car market may not […]

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Grade The Analysts, May 2012: Exuberance Causes Big Fail http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/06/grade-the-analysts-may-2012-exuberance-causes-the-big-fail/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/06/grade-the-analysts-may-2012-exuberance-causes-the-big-fail/#comments Sat, 02 Jun 2012 12:11:36 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=447279   Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 13.0% 14.0% 36.0% 14.3 3.8% 9.0% 12.8% 2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 17.0% 11.0% 33.0% 14.5 5.2% 11.0% 16.2% 3 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 11.0% 9.4% 40.0% 14.2 3.0% 13.6% 16.6% 4 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 11.0% 16.0% 42.0% […]

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  Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 13.0% 14.0% 36.0% 14.3 3.8% 9.0% 12.8% 2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 17.0% 11.0% 33.0% 14.5 5.2% 11.0% 16.2% 3 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 11.0% 9.4% 40.0% 14.2 3.0% 13.6% 16.6% 4 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 11.0% 16.0% 42.0% […]

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Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Scores A SAAR Bulls Eye And Wins http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/05/grade-the-analysts-jessica-caldwell-scores-a-saar-bulls-eye-and-wins/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/05/grade-the-analysts-jessica-caldwell-scores-a-saar-bulls-eye-and-wins/#comments Wed, 02 May 2012 01:50:08 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=442404 Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell […]

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Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot. Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell […]

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Grade The Analysts: The Bankers Have It http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/04/grade-the-analysts-the-bankers-have-it/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/04/grade-the-analysts-the-bankers-have-it/#comments Wed, 04 Apr 2012 13:47:38 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=438139 March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles […]

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March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles […]

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Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Wins Race Against 15.1 Million http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/03/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-wins-race-against-15-1-million/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/03/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-wins-race-against-15-1-million/#comments Fri, 02 Mar 2012 14:37:21 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=433513     Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79% 2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64% 3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24% 4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% […]

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    Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall 1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79% 2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64% 3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24% 4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% […]

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Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries Month And Year http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-carries-month-and-year/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-carries-month-and-year/#comments Thu, 05 Jan 2012 14:32:37 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=424463 Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her […]

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Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her […]

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Grade The Analysts: Edmund’s Caldwell Does It Again http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/12/grade-the-analysts-edmund%e2%80%99s-caldwell-does-it-again/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/12/grade-the-analysts-edmund%e2%80%99s-caldwell-does-it-again/#comments Fri, 02 Dec 2011 12:14:50 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=421020 November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did […]

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November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did […]

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Grade The Analysts: Edmund’s Caldwell Beats Bankers, Truecar http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/11/grade-the-analysts-edmund%e2%80%99s-caldwell-beats-bankers-truecar/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/11/grade-the-analysts-edmund%e2%80%99s-caldwell-beats-bankers-truecar/#comments Tue, 01 Nov 2011 20:44:42 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=416469 US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being.  13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. […]

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US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being.  13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. […]

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Analysts Agree: October Will Be Good – But How Good Are The Analysts? http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/11/analysts-agree-october-will-be-good-but-how-good-are-the-analysts/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/11/analysts-agree-october-will-be-good-but-how-good-are-the-analysts/#comments Tue, 01 Nov 2011 14:58:02 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=416414 Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.9 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.5% 4.1% 24.0% 13.0 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)  NA NA  NA 13.1 Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)  NA NA  NA 13.1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.2% 7.5% 20.0% 13.2 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.2 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) […]

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Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.9 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.5% 4.1% 24.0% 13.0 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)  NA NA  NA 13.1 Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)  NA NA  NA 13.1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.2% 7.5% 20.0% 13.2 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.2 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) […]

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New Car Sales: September Surprise? http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/10/new-car-sales-september-surprise/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/10/new-car-sales-september-surprise/#comments Sat, 01 Oct 2011 17:29:04 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=413178 September Light Vehicle sales, which will be out on Monday, could rise to levels not seen since April, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg reckon. The consensus average stands at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12.8 million units. The people who have the real time sales data even think it’s a bit higher: Jessica Caldwell of […]

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September Light Vehicle sales, which will be out on Monday, could rise to levels not seen since April, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg reckon. The consensus average stands at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12.8 million units. The people who have the real time sales data even think it’s a bit higher: Jessica Caldwell of […]

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TTAC Grades The Analysts: TrueCar Wins In August http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/09/ttac-grades-the-analysts-truecar-wins-in-august/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/09/ttac-grades-the-analysts-truecar-wins-in-august/#comments Fri, 02 Sep 2011 11:24:09 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=410034   This is round two of TTAC’s “Grade The Analysts”. Last time, we graded only on how closely analysts hit the SAAR number (table provided by Bloomberg.). If we would have done this this time, all would have received an A or better. The guesses were THAT close. The overall SAAR  for August was 12.1 […]

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  This is round two of TTAC’s “Grade The Analysts”. Last time, we graded only on how closely analysts hit the SAAR number (table provided by Bloomberg.). If we would have done this this time, all would have received an A or better. The guesses were THAT close. The overall SAAR  for August was 12.1 […]

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