We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking.  It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.

The winner was last year’s overall champion, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com.  She leads only a third of a percent in front of John Sousanis of Ward’s, who is separated by a hair from third placed Jesse Toprak.

This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault.

The specialists of  TrueCar and Edmunds find themselves at the bottom of the list of bona-fide guessers. What were you thinking, Jesse, a 15.7 SAAR? Jessica, Jessica: Too low for GM, way too high for Ford and Chrysler. Better luck next time.

If your life, career, wealth, or all of the above depend on forecasting the auto market with precision and reliability, then you can do no better than securing the services of Edmunds’ chief analyst Jessica Caldwell. Last year’s winner of the coveted  “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”)  does it again: Jessica Caldwell wins the TTAC 12, closely followed by her perennial antagonists, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.

TTAC congratulates  Jessica Caldwell and her team to her second coronation in a row.

Each month, Bloomberg asks a panel of America’s best and (hopefully) highest paid analysts how this month’s auto sales will come in. Each month, TTAC grades the analysts on how well they hit their target. Each month, some of our readers ask why.

The auto business lives on reliable forecasts. Marketers and engineers have to gauge customer desires many years ahead. Budgets have to be made, resources allocated, production schedules have to be put together, parts must be ordered, advertising dollars allocated, cars shipped to dealer lots. What’s more, car sales are an indicator for the economy.  That’s why brokerage houses and banks employ hordes of analysts, that’s why specialist firms like Edmunds, TrueCar, Kelley, IHS and LMC invest considerable energy into forecasting the market. And that’s why TTAC benchmarks analyst results.
Nobody can predict the future with 100% accuracy. Panels of reporting dealers can be built that bring you pretty close to the actual results. Fleet sales make the matter tricky. A volume deal, moved a day back or ahead can throw off the best forecast.
When you look for a good forecaster, you look for reliability and consistency. The hero is not the forecaster who hits a bulls-eye once.  A good forecaster is close to the truth most of the time. Jessica Caldwell is a great forecaster. A good forecaster never takes a vacation, he or she never shrugs the shoulders and says “I don’t know.”

If I would have to recommend the perfect forecaster, then I would name a panel consisting of Jessica Caldwell, Jesse Toprak of Truecar, and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.  Between them, they have six first places last year, eight second places and  five third places.  Actually, I would have a chat with Brian Johnson of Barclays and put him on the panel if he promises never to punt again. In April last year, Brian shrugged his shoulders when it came to Chrysler and said “I don’t know.”  This slip-up did cost Brian a podium finish in the annual TTAC ranking. Did we mention consistency and reliability?

Case in point: In December, Brian Johnson took the top post, with Caldwell in place three, Toprak in 5 and Nesvold in eight. Brian took two first last year, one second and two thirds. Would he not have chickened out on Chrysler last April, Johnson probably would have a podium finish in the annual rankings in addition to his first place in December.

How does one predict sales with accuracy, reliability and consistency?  Apart from the obvious (guess, call the OEMs, establish a real time dealer panel, knock on wood) the intricate details remain a closely guarded secret.  Asked how in the world she can be so good, Jessica Caldwell delivered a politically correct statement that nonetheless won’t help you break into the forecasting business:

“Forecasting is, of course, a team effort. Out team includes several PhDs, statisticians and hundreds of other colleagues who are working to translate this data and deliver key insights to help both shoppers and dealers improve the car buying experience. You won’t find a more hard working group of data experts anywhere else in the industry.”

A word to the also-rans, beginning halfway down the annual list: Only betting on a SAAR number and withholding an estimate for the Detroit Three is a surefire way of ruining your chances of winning.  This has sunk in. In January,  six out of 14 analysts only provided a SAAR.  In December, this number was down to four out of 15. Likewise, analysts who pop up only once or twice in the year stand no chance. It would be better to bet in the name of the vacationing colleague. This is a highly competitive and unforgiving business.

A spreadsheet with the monthly results and other nifty stats can be downloaded here.

Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking.  Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month’s winners:

November Analyst Rankings

On average, the 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg were not optimistic enough on the market, were way to exuberant about GM, did not give enough credit to Ford, and called Chrysler alright. Rock star Jesse Toprak had a bad month and licks his wounds in rank 9. Golden Girl Jessica Caldwell came close, but was denied first place by dark horse Brian Johnson of Barclays. In prior months, Johnson was  known for rather middling performance. Was is mere luck? We will know next month, when the analyst of the year will get the TTAC ’12, a.k.a.  The Top Anlalyst Crown 2012.

Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst.

While a tad too optimistic, Lache was much closer to reality than an his exuberant colleagues, polled by Bloomberg. Lache said GM’s sales would raise 6 percent (they rose 5), he figured Ford would be up 1 percent (Ford was flat), he thought Chrysler would be up 10 percent (Chrysler was.) With 14.6 million, Lache reckoned the lowest SAAR of all the analysts. The true number was 14.29 million.

This is the second time Rod Lache takes the top spot this year. He already led the analysts in July.

Edmunds star analyst Jessica Caldwell, winner of 4 out of 10 months so far, came in second.

The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.Overall, the 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg were a little bit too optimistic when it came to GM and Ford, they shortsold Chrysler and undershot the very strong SAAR of 14.94 million (as per Autodata] . The few analysts who still only deliver a SAAR only stand no chance. Even coming as close to the actual SAAR as Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley does not make you a winner if there are no predictions for the D3.

August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.

Caldwell called the unexpectedly high SAR of 14.5 million exactly (save for a rounding error). She also came pretty close to the actual showing of the D3. Jessica takes a well earned top spot in the August round of Grade the Analysts.

Caldwell shares the podium with industry prognosticators of Wards and Kelly, with TrueCar in place four. The bankers are far behind.

They called the market correctly, but they did bet on the wrong horses. Bloomberg polled the usual  assemblage of analysts regarding the final tally of July new car sales, and the analysts did not disappoint  when it came to the overall market. On average, they nailed the July SAAR of 14.1 million. When it came to the Detroit 3, they were way too optimistic. And it just so happens that the chief car analyst of Germany’s largest bank is the winner of this month’s Grade the Analysts.

July Grade the Analysts

Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank made first place, powered by a good dose of healthy pessimism when it came  to GM and Ford. A bigger dose of pessimism would have put Rod closer to the actual numbers. But To win, you don’t have to be right, you only have to be better than the rest of the field. And the field was WAY to optimistic.

Those in possession of real time data failed with Jesse Toprak of TrueCar in place six, and Alec  Gutierrez of Kelley Blue Book in place 7. Trophy analyst Jessica Caldwell takes an honorable close second.

When Ed Niedermeyer and I visited Edmunds and TrueCar last May, both of them confirmed that they could call the month with high precision based on the real time data collected from dealers – what throws them off is fleet sales. Those they have to guess, and they guessed too high.

P.S.: We applaud the growing number of analysts that doe more than just throw out a SAAR. That won’t get you far with your clients, and at TTAC.  Remember: Guesses for all Detroit 3 have to be in it to win it.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts.

A deserved top spot goes to the analyst who had joined the ranks of Bloomberg’s forecasters just two month ago. He immediately dared to give estimates for the Detroit 3, the only way to win this game. (Joseph Spak: Please give a guess on Chrysler. Any guess is better than none.)

Grade The Analysts favorite Jessica Caldwell takes 2^nd.  Jesse Toprak of TrueCar needs to tune-up his model.

Each month, TTAC grades light vehicle sales forecasts of analysts polled by Bloomberg. We use sales data as compiled by Automotive News and SAAR data as published by Autodata.

TTAC’s advisor in cross-cultural affairs, Frau Schmitto-san, advises me that “itay” means “pain” in Japanese. Nomen est omen: Pessimistic remarks of an analyst named “Itay” sent car stocks down this morning. By mid day, Ford had dropped 19 cents, GM lost 53 cents. All because Citi analyst Itay Michaeli thinks the car market may not be as hot as some think.

Michaeli reduced his forecast for total U.S. sales from 14.3 million to 14.1 million. He now expects only 14.5 million to be sold next year.

After checking the results of TTAC’s Grade The Analysts, it appears that Michaeli is not the sharpest shooter of the bunch. Whenever he bets, he lands near the bottom of the field. His February SAAR guess was off by 900,000 units, in May, he missed by 600,000. He was DNS in the other month.

The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.

Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment.

The winner of May’s Grade The Analysts is Chris Ceraso of Credit Suisse. In the preceding months , Chris had ranked at the bottom of the field of contestants who had a fair chance of winning. Only the ones who deliver a prediction for the SAAR  AND the Detroit 3 can win this game.

In May, Chris performed with Swiss consistency, missing the mark by nearly 13 percent. He won, because the other contestants finished much worse.

In second place is Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, defending the honor of analysts who are in possession of strategically important real-time transaction data. Nevertheless, Jesse aimed too high. In place three is Alec Gutierrez of Kelley Blue Book, who had set off a round of misguided enthusiasm by predicting a week ago that the market could be up by 30 percent .

Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot.

Caldwell nailed the SAAR of 14.4 million and came within 3.2 percent of the Detroit three. Caldwell is followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, with Peter Nesvold of Jefferies in a close third.

Each month, TTAC grades the sales predictions made by analysts polled by Bloomberg.

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs.

Peter Nesvold of Jefferies deservedly is spraying expensive champagne from his top position at the automotive analysts polled by Bloomberg. Nesvold called GM’s 19 percent on the dot, he was within a whisker’s width of Ford and Chrysler, he nailed the SAAR. Emmanuel Rosner in number 2 and Brian Johnson on three were less precise, but their guesses still were good enough to shame the nuclear-tipped crowd.

The real-time heavyweights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley all aimed too high and missed. Too bad for Itay Michael  and Alan Baum. Both called March SAAR exactly, but in this game, one can only win by naming a number for each of the Detroit dudes. Jeff Schuster misses the good old days when he played with the big boys. How does it feel down there?

Better luck in April!

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million.

GM had a big minus sign in front of every estimation. It came in with a 1 percent gain. Chrysler sales were estimated to grow “only” 26 percent. They grew 40.4 percent. Even with Ford, the augurs were too cautious.

As any racer will tell you: In a race where everybody is confused, the least confused wins. Despite not calling anything right, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds wins by coming slightly closer to the truth than anyone else. Nevertheless: 22.79% deviation, that is the worst win in Grade The Analyst history.

While we are at it, we welcome three new analysts, Emmanual Rosner, Chris Ceraso, And Matthew Stover. We are pleased that two out of three FNGs decided to go whole hog and to provide estimates not just for the SAAR, but for all Detroit companies. It’s the only way to win this game. In racing, you don’t get points for not racing either.

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”).

Looking back over four months of Grade The Analysts, Caldwell took fist place three out of four times. Having access to real-time data apparently is not everything. Jesse Toprak of Truecar, who also has access to real time data, came in third three out of four times, and once took 5^th. Second place was occupied by a changing cast of bankers & brokers.

We had already given up on Bloomberg’s panel, which usually peers in its crystal ball BEFORE the year comes to an end. Finally, in the wee hours of Jan 4, the day the official results were scheduled to come in, Bloomberg caught up with its panel. Without it, there would have been nothing to grade.

The grading of the analysts was not degraded by both Daimler and BMW withholding December numbers. Autodata, which calculates the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, chose to ignore the dilly-dallying Deutsche and came out with a 13.65 million SAAR yesterday afternoon.

November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did worse.