By on May 2, 2013

Jessica_Caldwell

We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking.  It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2013

 

This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault. (Read More…)

By on January 4, 2013

If your life, career, wealth, or all of the above depend on forecasting the auto market with precision and reliability, then you can do no better than securing the services of Edmunds’ chief analyst Jessica Caldwell. Last year’s winner of the coveted  “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”)  does it again: Jessica Caldwell wins the TTAC 12, closely followed by her perennial antagonists, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.

TTAC congratulates  Jessica Caldwell and her team to her second coronation in a row. (Read More…)

By on December 5, 2012

Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking.  Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month’s winners: (Read More…)

By on November 2, 2012

Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst. (Read More…)

By on October 3, 2012
Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 1.9% 0.7% 8.4% 14.4 3.6% 4.5% 8.1%
2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 2.5% 1.3% 8.1% 14.6 2.3% 6.0% 8.3%
3 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 3.7% 2.2% 6.1% 14.5 2.9% 10.1% 13.0%
4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 1.0% 1.6% 4.4% 14.4 3.6% 9.5% 13.1%
5 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 4.6% 4.3% 8.1% 14.6 2.3% 11.1% 13.4%
6 Joseph Spak (RBC) 4.0% 4.9% 8.0% 14.5 2.9% 11.2% 14.1%
7 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 2.2% 4.2% 4.8% 14.6 2.3% 11.9% 14.2%
8 Brian Johnson (Barclays) -1.5% -1.4% 5.5% 14.3 4.3% 10.2% 14.5%
9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 4.0% 1.7% 5.6% 14.3 4.3% 10.4% 14.7%
10 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 3.3% 2.0% 4.4% 14.4 3.6% 11.2% 14.8%
11 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 14.5 2.9% 13.3% 16.2%
12 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 15.0 0.4% 300.0% 300.4%
13 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.5 2.9% 300.0% 302.9%
14 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.5 2.9% 300.0% 302.9%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.5 2.9% 300.0% 302.9%
16 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 14.4 3.6% 300.0% 303.6%
Average 2.8% 2.3% 6.3% 14.50
Actual 1.5% -0.2% 11.5% 14.94

The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies. (Read More…)

By on September 5, 2012

August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. (Read More…)

By on August 2, 2012

 

They called the market correctly, but they did bet on the wrong horses. Bloomberg polled the usual  assemblage of analysts regarding the final tally of July new car sales, and the analysts did not disappoint  when it came to the overall market. On average, they nailed the July SAAR of 14.1 million. When it came to the Detroit 3, they were way too optimistic. And it just so happens that the chief car analyst of Germany’s largest bank is the winner of this month’s Grade the Analysts. (Read More…)

By on July 4, 2012

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 12.0% 8.0% 18.0% 14.0 0.6% 6.1% 6.7%
2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 8.7% 4.4% 19.0% 13.9 1.3% 10.3% 11.6%
3 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 6.4% 7.1% 18.0% 13.8 2.0% 10.9% 12.9%
4 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 7.3% 1.4% 20.0% 13.9 1.3% 13.7% 15.0%
5 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 9.1% 2.9% 17.0% 13.8 2.0% 13.4% 15.4%
6 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 5.2% 4.4% 19.0% 13.8 2.0% 13.8% 15.8%
7 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 7.0% 1.4% 19.0% 13.8 2.0% 15.0% 17.0%
8 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 6.2% 2.0% 17.0% 13.8 2.0% 17.2% 19.2%
9 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 8.2% 2.4% 14.0% 13.7 2.7% 17.8% 20.5%
10 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 6.0% 0.3% 16.0% 13.6 3.4% 20.1% 23.5%
11 Joseph Spak (RBC) 7.7% 5.9% NA 13.9 1.3% 108.5% 109.8%
12 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 14.0 0.6% 300.0% 300.6%
13 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.0 0.6% 300.0% 300.6%
14 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 13.9 1.3% 300.0% 301.3%
15 Christopher Hopson (IHS) NA NA NA 13.8 2.0% 300.0% 302.0%
Average 7.6% 3.7% 18.0% 13.8
Actual 15.0% 7.1% 20.3% 14.1

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts. (Read More…)

By on June 21, 2012

TTAC’s advisor in cross-cultural affairs, Frau Schmitto-san, advises me that “itay” means “pain” in Japanese. Nomen est omen: Pessimistic remarks of an analyst named “Itay” sent car stocks down this morning. By mid day, Ford had dropped 19 cents, GM lost 53 cents. All because Citi analyst Itay Michaeli thinks the car market may not be as hot as some think. (Read More…)

By on June 2, 2012

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 13.0% 14.0% 36.0% 14.3 3.8% 9.0% 12.8%
2 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 17.0% 11.0% 33.0% 14.5 5.2% 11.0% 16.2%
3 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 11.0% 9.4% 40.0% 14.2 3.0% 13.6% 16.6%
4 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 11.0% 16.0% 42.0% 14.4 4.5% 15.0% 19.5%
5 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 15.0% 10.0% 38.0% 14.4 4.5% 15.0% 19.5%
6 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 13.0% 12.0% 44.0% 14.4 4.5% 17.0% 21.5%
7 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 16.0% 15.0% 42.0% 14.4 4.5% 19.0% 23.5%
8 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 18.0% 11.0% 41.0% 14.4 4.5% 20.0% 24.5%
9 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 15.0% 15.0% 45.0% 14.6 6.0% 21.0% 27.0%
10 Joseph Spak (RBC) 16.0% 10.0% NA 14.4 4.5% 108.0% 112.5%
11 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA NA NA 14.2 3.0% 300.0% 303.0%
12 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 14.3 3.8% 300.0% 303.8%
13 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 14.4 4.5% 300.0% 304.5%
14 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.4 4.5% 300.0% 304.5%
Average 15.0% 12.0% 40.0% 14.4
Actual 11.0% 13.0% 30.0% 13.8

The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.

Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment. (Read More…)

By on May 1, 2012

Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot. (Read More…)

By on April 4, 2012

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

 

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79%
2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24%
4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% 14.3 5.30% 21.44% 26.74%
5 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) -5.9% 13.0% 27.0% 14.2 5.96% 21.74% 27.70%
6 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) -3.9% 5.6% 25.0% 14.5 3.97% 29.14% 33.12%
7 Joseph Spak (RBC) -5.2% 8.0% 24.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.04% 35.67%
8 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) -4.0% 8.7% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.14% 35.77%
9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) -5.8% 5.6% 25.0% 13.8 8.61% 31.04% 39.65%
10 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) -5.6% 3.4% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 36.04% 42.67%
11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
12 Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)  NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
13 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)  NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
14 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
16 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
17 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA  NA   NA 13.8 8.61% 300.00% 308.61%
Average -4.8% 9.4% 26.0% 14.2
Actual 1.1% 14.3% 40.4% 15.1

 

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million. (Read More…)

By on January 5, 2012

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”). (Read More…)

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