The Truth About Cars » February 2013 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. Mon, 28 Jul 2014 17:02:33 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.1 The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars no The Truth About Cars editors@ttac.com editors@ttac.com (The Truth About Cars) 2006-2009 The Truth About Cars The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars » February 2013 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/wp-content/themes/ttac-theme/images/logo.gif http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com February Sales Way Down in Europe, Ford And GM Devastated http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/february-sales-way-down-in-europe-ford-and-gm-devastated/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/february-sales-way-down-in-europe-ford-and-gm-devastated/#comments Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:55:57 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=481701

The European car market goes to where it has been going for a while: To the toilet.  February sales in the EU were down 10.5 percent year-on-year. Sales in February were  9.5 percent lower than an already disappointing  January.

 

Except for the UK (up 7.9 percent), all other European volume markets were down, ranging from -9.8 percent in Spain to -10.5 percent in Germany, -12.1 percent in France and -17.4 percent in Italy.

GM and Ford, both down more than 20 percent, were hit very hard and are the worst performing of the major makers.  Volkswagen is no longer walking on water, and sunk by 7.4 percent.

New Passenger Car Registrations EU, February 2013
February January – February
    %Share     %Share Units Units % Chg     %Share Units Units % Chg
’13 ’12 ’13 ’12 13/12 ’13 ’12 ’13 ’12 13/12
ALL BRANDS** 795,482 889,050 -10.5 1,681,073 1,858,270 -9.5
VW GRP 24.6 23.8 195,608 211,205 -7.4 24.5 23.8 411,566 441,404 -6.8
VOLKSWAGEN 12.9 12.8 102,617 113,858 -9.9 12.6 12.8 211,478 237,609 -11.0
AUDI 5.2 4.8 41,195 42,885 -3.9 5.3 4.9 89,304 91,975 -2.9
SEAT 2.3 2.1 18,415 18,345 +0.4 2.3 2.0 38,004 37,261 +2.0
SKODA 3.9 4.0 31,007 35,990 -13.8 4.0 4.0 66,911 74,226 -9.9
Others (1) 0.3 0.0 2,374 127 +1769.3 0.3 0.0 5,869 333 +1662.5
PSA GRP 12.6 13.0 100,450 115,668 -13.2 12.0 12.8 202,060 237,141 -14.8
PEUGEOT 6.9 6.7 54,542 59,726 -8.7 6.5 6.8 109,388 125,488 -12.8
CITROEN 5.8 6.3 45,908 55,942 -17.9 5.5 6.0 92,672 111,653 -17.0
RENAULT GRP 9.7 9.5 77,414 84,599 -8.5 9.1 8.9 153,540 165,350 -7.1
RENAULT 7.2 7.6 57,377 67,309 -14.8 6.7 7.0 113,275 129,424 -12.5
DACIA 2.5 1.9 20,037 17,290 +15.9 2.4 1.9 40,265 35,926 +12.1
GM GRP 7.2 8.1 57,410 72,309 -20.6 7.5 7.8 125,700 144,395 -12.9
OPEL/VAUXHALL 6.1 6.4 48,258 57,306 -15.8 6.4 6.1 106,868 113,408 -5.8
CHEVROLET 1.1 1.7 9,135 14,973 -39.0 1.1 1.7 18,790 30,903 -39.2
GM (US) 0.0 0.0 17 30 -43.3 0.0 0.0 42 84 -50.0
FIAT GRP 6.9 7.3 54,828 65,087 -15.8 6.8 7.2 114,597 133,177 -14.0
FIAT 5.4 5.2 42,898 46,044 -6.8 5.3 5.1 89,039 94,058 -5.3
LANCIA/CHRYSLER 0.7 1.0 5,434 8,842 -38.5 0.7 1.0 11,574 17,771 -34.9
ALFA ROMEO 0.6 0.9 4,576 7,862 -41.8 0.6 0.9 9,990 16,478 -39.4
JEEP 0.2 0.2 1,766 2,094 -15.7 0.2 0.2 3,575 4,222 -15.3
Others (2) 0.0 0.0 154 245 -37.1 0.0 0.0 419 648 -35.3
FORD 6.5 7.4 51,826 65,591 -21.0 6.7 7.9 112,169 146,226 -23.3
BMW GRP 5.8 5.3 46,361 47,539 -2.5 6.0 5.3 101,337 98,811 +2.6
BMW 4.8 4.3 37,835 38,131 -0.8 5.0 4.3 83,972 79,868 +5.1
MINI 1.1 1.1 8,526 9,408 -9.4 1.0 1.0 17,365 18,943 -8.3
DAIMLER 5.3 4.9 42,364 43,159 -1.8 5.4 4.9 91,588 90,628 +1.1
MERCEDES 4.7 4.3 37,150 37,969 -2.2 4.8 4.3 81,061 79,916 +1.4
SMART 0.7 0.6 5,214 5,190 +0.5 0.6 0.6 10,527 10,712 -1.7
TOYOTA GRP 4.1 4.0 32,550 35,364 -8.0 4.2 4.5 70,456 84,138 -16.3
TOYOTA 4.0 3.8 31,573 33,848 -6.7 4.0 4.3 67,842 79,456 -14.6
LEXUS 0.1 0.2 977 1,516 -35.6 0.2 0.3 2,614 4,682 -44.2
HYUNDAI 3.9 3.4 30,646 30,040 +2.0 3.7 3.4 62,375 62,418 -0.1
NISSAN 3.5 3.4 28,142 30,517 -7.8 3.6 3.5 61,134 65,574 -6.8
KIA 2.7 2.5 21,613 22,134 -2.4 2.7 2.4 44,787 43,743 +2.4
VOLVO 1.7 1.8 13,206 15,890 -16.9 1.7 1.9 28,461 34,459 -17.4
SUZUKI 1.1 1.2 8,943 10,450 -14.4 1.2 1.2 19,356 23,145 -16.4
MAZDA 1.1 1.0 9,072 8,550 +6.1 1.1 0.9 18,795 16,844 +11.6
JLR GRP 0.9 0.8 7,140 6,786 +5.2 1.1 0.9 18,617 16,428 +13.3
LAND ROVER 0.7 0.7 5,937 5,808 +2.2 0.9 0.7 15,383 13,779 +11.6
JAGUAR 0.2 0.1 1,203 978 +23.0 0.2 0.1 3,234 2,649 +22.1
HONDA 1.1 0.8 8,981 7,442 +20.7 1.1 0.9 18,383 15,977 +15.1
MITSUBISHI 0.5 0.6 4,247 5,657 -24.9 0.5 0.7 8,707 12,871 -32.4
OTHER** 0.6 1.2 4,681 11,063 -57.7 1.0 1.4 17,444 25,542 -31.7
Source: ACEA

Data can be downloaded here as PDF, here as Excel.

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Audi Beats Chinese Calendar, Ekes Out Gain http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/audi-beats-chinese-calendar-ekes-out-gain/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/audi-beats-chinese-calendar-ekes-out-gain/#comments Thu, 07 Mar 2013 14:24:25 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=480431 Despite Audi CEO Rupert Stadler’s warnings that the effect of the Chinese New Year affects the usually glorious Audi numbers, Audi’s February sales still are something to be proud of.

Audi Global Sales February 2013
Feb’13 Feb’12 YoY YTD’13 YTD’12 YoY
World 110,000 106,582 3.2% 221,800 202,663 9.4%
Europe 54,900 54,862 0.1% 104,800 100,782 4.0%
Germany 19,804 19,769 0.2% 34,415 32,836 4.8%
UK 4,451 4,150 7.3% 14,329 12,715 12.7%
France 5,368 5,654 -5.1% 9,379 9,663 -2.9%
Italy 3,622 4,003 -9.5% 7,389 7,628 -3.1%
Spain 4,082 3,952 3.3% 6,836 6,487 5.4%
Russia 2,800 2,330 20.2% 4,525 3,770 20.0%
USA 10,877 8,531 27.5% 20,933 17,885 17.0%
Mexico 889 486 82.9% 1,742 1,060 64.3%
Asia-Pac 36,900 36,464 1.2% 81,300 69,693 16.7%
China 30,268 31,352 -3.5% 67,946 58,558 16.0%
India 775 600 29.2% 1,512 1,267 19.3%

Despite a  problematic Europe, despite a model changeover of Audi’s best-selling A3, and damn the Chinese New Year, Audi still managed the best February in its history.  Sales are up 3.2 percent overall.

The Chinese loss of 3.5 percent also looks benign and indicates a strong March. A miracle happened in Europe, with Audi booking a tiny gain.

Audi also gains TTAC’s  admiration for the best numbers presentation in the business. Everything in a neat table, current and prior year numbers, percentages, all here. Journalists don’t have to go into the archives, they don’t have to make deadly Excel mistakes. Danke!

Remember: You aren’t a global automaker if you don’t publish monthly global numbers.

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Good Sign: GM China Sales Down Only 10.6 Percent In China http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/good-sign-gm-china-sales-down-only-10-6-percent-in-china/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/good-sign-gm-china-sales-down-only-10-6-percent-in-china/#comments Tue, 05 Mar 2013 15:03:47 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=480169 Today, GM did something highly unusual: It abandoned all spin and said that sales in China were down pretty much across the board in February: “General Motors and its joint ventures sold 215,070 vehicles in China during February. Sales were down 10.6 percent from the same month last year due to the week-long Lunar New Year holiday falling in February this year.” We at TTAC understand.

GM China February 2013
Jan’13 YoY 2M’13 YoY
GM China 215,070 -10.6% 525,835 7.9%
Shanghai GM 101,023 -2.0% 255,243 12.4%
Buick 52,340 -0.8% 138,849 12.1%
Chevrolet 46,388 -11.5% 112,529 5.4%
Cadillac 2,295 8.1% 3,865 -24.4%
SAIC-GM-Wuling 110,193 -15.4% 262,012 4.7%
Wuling 104,138 -11.7% 248,939
Baojun 6,055 -24.5% 13,073
FAW-GM 3,670 -48.1% 8,160 -14.1%
Black: GM data. Blue: Calculated from historical GM data

GM also did the right and sensible thing, namely to add January and February up. For the first two months, GM’s sales in China are up 7.9 percent, which is pretty good.  The number would even be better, would results not continue to be dragged down by a still laggardly Wuling. Shanghai GM’s sales, i.e. those of Buick, Chevrolet, and Cadillac, are up 12.1 percent.

The Baojun brand was launched in February 2012, which makes that Jan/Feb comparison looks a little too rosy.

All in all, a good start, and a good early indicator of the health of the Chinese auto market, which had been shrouded in Chinese New Year fog for months.

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Grade The Analysts: Conservative Bankers Trounce Exuberant Specialists http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/grade-the-analysts-conservative-bankers-trounce-exuberant-specialists/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/grade-the-analysts-conservative-bankers-trounce-exuberant-specialists/#comments Sat, 02 Mar 2013 10:13:57 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=479687

 

This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault.

Top Ranked Analysts, February 2013
Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 5.0% 9.4% 5.9% 15.3 0.52% 4.03% 4.54%
2 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 4.0% 9.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.52% 4.21% 4.73%
3 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 6.3% 7.6% 2.3% 15.3 0.52% 4.41% 4.93%
4 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 4.2% 7.5% 4.1% 15.3 0.52% 4.81% 5.33%
5 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.0% 6.4% 4.3% 15.3 0.52% 5.28% 5.80%
6 Joseph Spak (RBC) 5.3% 9.7% 0.2% 15.3 0.52% 6.16% 6.67%
7 John Sousanis (Wards) 6.0% 11.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.13% 6.73% 6.86%
8 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 2.7% 12.0% 4.9% 15.4 0.13% 7.93% 8.06%
9 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 5.1% 7.2% -1.1% 15.2 1.17% 9.41% 10.58%
10 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 5.6% 12.0% 9.1% 15.7 2.08% 9.23% 11.31%
11 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 4.6% 16.0% 7.6% 15.5 0.78% 12.73% 13.51%
12 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 15.3 0.52% 300.00% 300.52%
13 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 15.3 0.52% 300.00% 300.52%
14 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 15.2 1.17% 300.00% 301.17%
15 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 15.2 1.17% 300.00% 301.17%
Average 4.9% 9.8% 4.4% 15.3 0.52% 3.03% 3.54%
Actual 7.2% 9.3% 4.1% 15.4

The specialists of  TrueCar and Edmunds find themselves at the bottom of the list of bona-fide guessers. What were you thinking, Jesse, a 15.7 SAAR? Jessica, Jessica: Too low for GM, way too high for Ford and Chrysler. Better luck next time.

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February U.S. Car Sales http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/february-u-s-car-sales/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/february-u-s-car-sales/#comments Fri, 01 Mar 2013 17:05:07 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=479603

Crazy double digit gains have given way to solid single digit growth (on top of the crazy gains of last year).  More importantly for American makers, pickups and SUVs are moving. Stay with us throughout sales day for updates of the sales table.

February 2013 U.S. New Light Vehicle Sales

(Final table courtesy Automotive News [sub]

Automaker Feb. 2013 Feb. 2012 Pct. chng. 2 month
2013
2 month
2012
Pct. chng.
BMW Group 25,697 26,264 –2% 45,976 46,083 0%
    BMW division 21,311 21,204 1% 37,824 37,609 1%
    Mini 4,302 4,980 –14% 7,984 8,314 –4%
    Rolls-Royce 84 80 5% 168 160 5%
BMW Group 25,697 26,264 –2% 45,976 46,083 0%
Chrysler Group 139,015 133,521 4% 256,746 234,670 9%
    Chrysler Division 25,083 27,008 –7% 45,779 44,612 3%
    Dodge 55,639 42,692 30% 98,866 74,146 33%
    Dodge/Ram 79,466 65,974 21% 143,680 115,898 24%
    Fiat 3,302 3,227 2% 5,805 5,138 13%
    Jeep 31,164 37,312 –17% 61,482 69,022 –11%
    Ram 23,827 23,282 2% 44,814 41,752 7%
Chrysler Group 139,015 133,521 4% 256,746 234,670 9%
Daimler AG 24,051 19,685 22% 48,110 41,410 16%
    Maybach 4 –100% 8 –100%
    Mercedes-Benz 23,268 18,912 23% 46,846 40,137 17%
    Smart USA 783 769 2% 1,264 1,265 0%
Daimler AG 24,051 19,685 22% 48,110 41,410 16%
Ford Motor Co. 195,310 178,644 9% 361,173 314,938 15%
    Ford division 190,427 171,732 11% 352,099 302,905 16%
    Lincoln 4,883 6,912 –29% 9,074 12,033 –25%
Ford 195,310 178,644 9% 361,173 314,938 15%
General Motors 224,314 209,306 7% 419,013 377,268 11%
    Buick 16,150 14,023 15% 29,613 24,231 22%
    Cadillac 13,845 11,505 20% 26,961 20,429 32%
    Chevrolet 158,541 151,197 5% 295,845 275,061 8%
    GMC 35,778 32,581 10% 66,594 57,547 16%
General Motors 224,314 209,306 7% 419,013 377,268 11%
Honda (American) 107,987 110,157 –2% 201,613 193,166 4%
    Acura 11,364 11,258 1% 20,853 19,639 6%
    Honda Division 96,623 98,899 –2% 180,760 173,527 4%
Honda (American) 107,987 110,157 –2% 201,613 193,166 4%
Hyundai Group 93,816 96,189 –3% 173,831 174,400 0%
    Hyundai division 52,311 51,151 2% 96,024 93,845 2%
    Kia 41,505 45,038 –8% 77,807 80,555 –3%
Hyundai Group 93,816 96,189 –3% 173,831 174,400 0%
Jaguar Land Rover 5,053 4,277 18% 10,282 8,467 21%
    Jaguar 1,148 1,022 12% 2,177 2,007 9%
    Land Rover 3,905 3,255 20% 8,105 6,460 26%
Jaguar Land Rover 5,053 4,277 18% 10,282 8,467 21%
Maserati 159 191 –17% 331 345 –4%
Maserati 159 191 –17% 331 345 –4%
Mazda 24,936 25,651 –3% 46,255 49,647 –7%
Mazda 24,936 25,651 –3% 46,255 49,647 –7%
Mitsubishi 6,051 4,736 28% 10,710 9,447 13%
Mitsubishi 6,051 4,736 28% 10,710 9,447 13%
Nissan 99,636 106,731 –7% 180,555 186,044 –3%
    Infiniti 9,147 9,239 –1% 16,273 16,035 2%
    Nissan Division 90,489 97,492 –7% 164,282 170,009 –3%
Nissan 99,636 106,731 –7% 180,555 186,044 –3%
Subaru 28,163 25,374 11% 55,826 48,181 16%
Subaru 28,163 25,374 11% 55,826 48,181 16%
Suzuki* 1,250 2,425 –49% 2,736 3,930 –30%
Suzuki* 1,250 2,425 –49% 2,736 3,930 –30%
Toyota 166,377 159,462 4% 324,102 284,002 14%
    Lexus 17,339 16,682 4% 33,550 28,956 16%
    Scion 5,052 4,942 2% 9,945 8,477 17%
    Toyota division 143,986 137,838 5% 280,607 246,569 14%
    Toyota/Scion 149,038 142,780 4% 290,552 255,046 14%
Toyota 166,377 159,462 4% 324,102 284,002 14%
Volkswagen 45,364 41,426 10% 88,030 80,699 9%
    Audi 10,877 8,531 28% 20,933 17,885 17%
    Bentley 180 126 43% 368 244 51%
    Lamborghini* 46 43 7% 92 86 7%
    Porsche 2,805 2,149 31% 6,163 4,699 31%
    VW division 31,456 30,577 3% 60,474 57,785 5%
Volkswagen 45,364 41,426 10% 88,030 80,699 9%
Volvo Cars NA 4,867 5,263 –8% 9,742 9,724 0%
Volvo Cars NA 4,867 5,263 –8% 9,742 9,724 0%
    Other (estimate) 253 245 3% 506 490 3%
TOTAL 1,192,299 1,149,547 4% 2,235,537 2,062,911 8%
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Japan In February 2013: Down 8 Percent http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/japan-in-february-2013-down-8-percent/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/03/japan-in-february-2013-down-8-percent/#comments Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:34:19 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=479560

Japanese automobile sales were down eight percent in  February 2013, compared to the same month in the prior year. This according to consolidated data by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association and the Japan Mini Vehicles Association.

Regular vehicle sales Japan February 2013
Manufacturer Feb ’13 Feb ’12 YoY YTD ’13 YTD ’12 YoY
Daihatsu 159 287 -44.6% 354 486 -27.2%
Hino 3,523 3,094 13.9% 5,842 5,451 7.2%
Honda 28,736 50,440 -43.0% 49,696 94,709 -47.5%
Isuzu 4,417 4,657 -5.2% 7,512 8,101 -7.3%
Lexus 3,647 3,554 2.6% 7,211 6,712 7.4%
Mazda 15,720 14,115 11.4% 28,355 26,977 5.1%
Mitsubishi 7,063 5,655 24.9% 12,323 10,404 18.4%
Mitsubishi Fuso 2,602 2,638 -1.4% 4,219 4,646 -9.2%
Nissan 53,928 55,679 -3.1% 98,138 95,329 2.9%
Subaru 10,252 7,606 34.8% 20,339 13,523 50.4%
Suzuki 7,147 7,613 -6.1% 12,325 13,984 -11.9%
Toyota 135,475 158,877 -14.7% 240,830 283,510 -15.1%
UD Trucks 598 690 -13.3% 1,081 1,246 -13.2%
Other 19,132 18,308 4.5% 33,507 31,402 6.7%
Total 292,399 333,213 -12.2% 521,732 596,480 -12.5%
Domestic 266,704 308,392 -13.5% 476,053 553,722 -14.0%
Imports 25,695 24,821 3.5% 45,679 42,758 6.8%
Data courtesy Japan Automobile Dealers Association

Sales of regular vehicles, tallied by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association, were down 12.2 percent, a sixth month of decline after the stop of government subsidies. Sales of imported vehicles resist the downtrend. In February, nearly 10 percent of all regular cars were made outside of Japan, 6.5 percent by non-Japanese makers.

Mini vehicle sales Japan February 2013
Manufacturer Feb ’13 Feb ’12 YoY YTD ’13 YTD ’12 YoY
Suzuki 52,090 52,018 0.1% 96,749 94,346 2.5%
Daihatsu 59,765 63,969 -6.6% 105,810 117,763 -10.2%
Mitsubishi 6,283 8,875 -29.2% 11,256 16,222 -30.6%
Subaru 5,212 9,572 -45.5% 8,917 18,327 -51.3%
Honda 37,663 26,715 41.0% 72,356 46,494 55.6%
Mazda 4,844 5,247 -7.7% 9,988 9,870 1.2%
Nissan 15,655 16,440 -4.8% 27,858 29,771 -6.4%
Toyota 3,414 3,574 -4.5% 6,159 6,273 -1.8%
Other 1 3 -66.7% 2 4 -50.0%
Total 184,927 186,413 -0.8% 339,095 339,070 0.0%
Data courtesy Japan Mini Vehicles Association

Sales of minivehicles, recorded by the Japan Mini Vehicles Association, were down slightly in February, and are flat for the year. Minivehicles  had seen growth in the past months, even after the subsides expired.

Total vehicle sales Japan February 2013
Manufacturer Feb ’13 Feb ’12 YoY YTD ’13 YTD ’12 YoY
Daihatsu 59,924 64,256 -6.7% 106,164 118,249 -10.2%
Hino 3,523 3,094 13.9% 5,842 5,451 7.2%
Honda 66,399 77,155 -13.9% 122,052 141,203 -13.6%
Isuzu 4,417 4,657 -5.2% 7,512 8,101 -7.3%
Lexus 3,647 3,554 2.6% 7,211 6,712 7.4%
Mazda 20,564 19,362 6.2% 38,343 36,847 4.1%
Mitsubishi 13,346 14,530 -8.1% 23,579 26,626 -11.4%
Mitsubishi Fuso 2,602 2,638 -1.4% 4,219 4,646 -9.2%
Nissan 69,583 72,119 -3.5% 125,996 125,100 0.7%
Subaru 15,464 17,178 -10.0% 29,256 31,850 -8.1%
Suzuki 59,237 59,631 -0.7% 109,074 108,330 0.7%
Toyota 138,889 162,451 -14.5% 246,989 289,783 -14.8%
UD Trucks 598 690 -13.3% 1,081 1,246 -13.2%
Other 19,133 18,311 4.5% 33,509 31,406 6.7%
Total 477,326 519,626 -8.1% 860,827 935,550 -8.0%

On a consolidated basis, sales are down, but still not the -25 percent that had been predicted for after the end of the subsidies.

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