By on March 10, 2012

China’s February new car sales are in, and they are whatever you want them to be. They are up a lot if you look at February alone. They are down if you look at the first two months of the year. They are confused for those who don’t know where to look. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

It looks like the German new car market decided: “Last year was nice. Let’s do it again.” For a few months, the German market had retraced the prior year. In February, the prior year number has been hit with 0.0 percent precision. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

When Toyota announced an ambitious sales plan for 2012, and the intention to raise sales in Japan by 36 percent, a common reaction was: “Excuse me?”

In February 2011, sales of passenger vehicles excluding minivehicles had been down 14.3 percent. Sales in Japan had been down for most of the year, as a result of cut subsidies. When smaller inducements came back in fall, sales were up again. We are comparing with a low base. As matters are coming back to normal we better get used to a stretch of double digit gains.

Compared to the low base, Toyota’s plan is entirely doable. So far, the market complies and Toyota is on target. (Read More…)

By on March 2, 2012

 

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) -5.0% 18.0% 32.0% 14.4 4.64% 18.15% 22.79%
2 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) -3.6% 7.1% 32.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.34% 25.64%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) -6.1% 14.0% 27.0% 14.3 5.30% 20.94% 26.24%
4 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) -2.6% 11.0% 26.0% 14.3 5.30% 21.44% 26.74%
5 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) -5.9% 13.0% 27.0% 14.2 5.96% 21.74% 27.70%
6 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) -3.9% 5.6% 25.0% 14.5 3.97% 29.14% 33.12%
7 Joseph Spak (RBC) -5.2% 8.0% 24.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.04% 35.67%
8 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) -4.0% 8.7% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 29.14% 35.77%
9 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) -5.8% 5.6% 25.0% 13.8 8.61% 31.04% 39.65%
10 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) -5.6% 3.4% 22.0% 14.1 6.62% 36.04% 42.67%
11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
12 Matthew Stover (Guggenheim)  NA  NA   NA 14.3 5.30% 300.00% 305.30%
13 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)  NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
14 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA  NA   NA 14.2 5.96% 300.00% 305.96%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
16 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA  NA   NA 14.0 7.28% 300.00% 307.28%
17 George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA  NA   NA 13.8 8.61% 300.00% 308.61%
Average -4.8% 9.4% 26.0% 14.2
Actual 1.1% 14.3% 40.4% 15.1

 

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million. (Read More…)

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