The Truth About Cars » December 2011 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. Sun, 13 Apr 2014 13:30:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.1 The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars no The Truth About Cars editors@ttac.com editors@ttac.com (The Truth About Cars) 2006-2009 The Truth About Cars The Truth About Cars is dedicated to providing candid, unbiased automobile reviews and the latest in auto industry news. The Truth About Cars » December 2011 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/wp-content/themes/ttac-theme/images/logo.gif http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com After German Primadonnas Submit, U.S. Light Vehicle Count Finally Official http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/after-german-primadonnas-submit-u-s-light-vehicle-count-finally-official/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/after-german-primadonnas-submit-u-s-light-vehicle-count-finally-official/#comments Thu, 05 Jan 2012 19:56:22 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=424548

Finally, a day later, the two German primadonnas, Daimler and BMW, handed in their homework, and America can get on with its life, knowing that Americans bought 1,243,784 light vehicles in December. This brought annual sales in the U.S. to the official total of 12,778,885 units, up 10 percent over 2010.

Now for the primadonnas. Executives at both German companies counted cars as if their careers depend on who’s on first. When they finally handed in their paperwork a day late, to everybody’s surprise, BMW squeaked by Mercedes by 2,715 units and a total of 247,907 bimmers for the year. That despite a sudden voracious appetite of American drivers for the Mercedes brand, which rose 28 percent to 25,701 in December, for an annual total of 245,192.

In the luxury races, you must eliminate BMW Minis, and on the Daimler side Smart and Mercedes Sprinter vans.

Two days ago, Edmunds still had different numbers and said that “Mercedes-Benz is expected to pull ahead to finish the year over BMW by about 1,100 vehicles.”

For the first time, BMW can call itself  America’s king of luxury. But is that an excuse for letting a whole nation wait a day?

December U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

(Complete table)

Automaker Dec. 2011 Dec. 2010 Pct. chng. 12 month
2011
12 month
2010
Pct. chng.
BMW Group 32,575 27,643 18% 305,766 266,269 15%
    BMW division 26,834 23,280 15% 247,907 220,113 13%
    Mini 5,711 4,320 32% 57,511 45,644 26%
    Rolls-Royce 30 43 –30% 348 512 –32%
BMW Group 32,575 27,643 18% 305,766 266,269 15%
Chrysler Group 138,019 100,702 37% 1,369,114 1,085,211 26%
    Chrysler Division 23,974 13,132 83% 221,346 197,446 12%
    Dodge 41,548 32,390 28% 451,040 383,675 18%
    Dodge/Ram 68,143 56,660 20% 708,650 596,627 19%
    Fiat 2,325 –% 19,769 –%
    Jeep 43,577 30,910 41% 419,349 291,138 44%
    Ram 26,595 24,270 10% 257,610 212,952 21%
Chrysler Group 138,019 100,702 37% 1,369,114 1,085,211 26%
Daimler AG 28,009 22,044 27% 267,016 230,934 16%
    Maybach 3 5 –40% 39 63 –38%
    Mercedes-Benz 27,296 21,469 27% 261,769 224,944 16%
    Smart USA 710 570 25% 5,208 5,927 –12%
Daimler AG 28,009 22,044 27% 267,016 230,934 16%
Ford Motor Co. 209,447 190,191 10% 2,143,101 1,964,059 9%
    Ford division 201,044 173,738 16% 2,057,210 1,752,511 17%
    Ford/Lincoln/Mercury 209,447 190,191 10% 2,143,101 1,931,534 11%
    Lincoln 8,403 8,060 4% 85,643 85,828 0%
    Mercury 8,393 –100% 248 93,195 100%
    Volvo –% 32,525 –100%
Ford Motor Co. 209,447 190,191 10% 2,143,101 1,964,059 9%
General Motors 234,351 224,147 5% 2,503,797 2,211,699 13%
    Buick 14,974 17,095 –12% 177,633 155,389 14%
    Cadillac 16,259 16,718 –3% 152,389 146,925 4%
    Chevrolet 161,158 147,938 9% 1,775,802 1,563,881 14%
    GMC 41,960 42,143 0% 397,973 333,204 19%
    Hummer 38 –100% 3,812 –100%
    Pontiac 130 –100% 1,182 –100%
    Saab –% 608 –100%
    Saturn 85 –100% 6,698 –100%
General Motors 234,351 224,147 5% 2,503,797 2,211,699 13%
Honda (American) 105,230 129,616 –19% 1,147,285 1,230,480 –7%
    Acura 13,129 15,489 –15% 123,299 133,606 –8%
    Honda Division 92,101 114,127 –19% 1,023,986 1,096,874 –7%
Honda (American) 105,230 129,616 –19% 1,147,285 1,230,480 –7%
Hyundai Group 94,155 75,246 25% 1,131,183 894,496 27%
    Hyundai division 50,765 44,802 13% 645,691 538,228 20%
    Kia 43,390 30,444 43% 485,492 356,268 36%
Hyundai Group 94,155 75,246 25% 1,131,183 894,496 27%
Jaguar Land Rover 5,880 4,875 21% 50,375 45,204 11%
    Jaguar 1,137 1,180 –4% 12,276 13,340 –8%
    Land Rover 4,743 3,695 28% 38,099 31,864 20%
Jaguar Land Rover 5,880 4,875 21% 50,375 45,204 11%
Maserati 238 180 32% 2,321 1,897 22%
Maserati 238 180 32% 2,321 1,897 22%
Mazda 22,353 21,479 4% 250,426 229,566 9%
Mazda 22,353 21,479 4% 250,426 229,566 9%
Mitsubishi 5,032 4,874 3% 79,020 55,683 42%
Mitsubishi 5,032 4,874 3% 79,020 55,683 42%
Nissan 100,927 93,730 8% 1,042,534 908,570 15%
    Infiniti 10,990 12,502 –12% 98,461 103,411 –5%
    Nissan Division 89,937 81,228 11% 944,073 805,159 17%
Nissan 100,927 93,730 8% 1,042,534 908,570 15%
Porsche 1,834 2,567 –29% 29,023 25,320 15%
Porsche 1,834 2,567 –29% 29,023 25,320 15%
Saab Cars North America 270 1,074 –75% 5,610 4,838 16%
Saab Cars North America 270 1,074 –75% 5,610 4,838 16%
Subaru 33,701 26,694 26% 266,989 263,820 1%
Subaru 33,701 26,694 26% 266,989 263,820 1%
Suzuki 2,565 2,647 –3% 26,618 23,994 11%
Suzuki 2,565 2,647 –3% 26,618 23,994 11%
Toyota 178,131 177,488 0% 1,644,660 1,763,595 –7%
    Lexus 25,355 27,560 –8% 198,552 229,329 –13%
    Scion 4,159 3,956 5% 49,271 45,678 8%
    Toyota division 148,617 145,972 2% 1,396,837 1,488,588 –6%
    Toyota/Scion 152,776 149,928 2% 1,446,108 1,534,266 –6%
Toyota 178,131 177,488 0% 1,644,660 1,763,595 –7%
Volkswagen 45,474 34,610 31% 443,840 359,889 23%
    Audi 12,655 10,546 20% 117,561 101,629 16%
    Bentley 317 197 61% 1,877 1,430 31%
    VW division 32,502 23,867 36% 324,402 256,830 26%
Volkswagen 45,474 34,610 31% 443,840 359,889 23%
Volvo Cars NA 5,342 4,756 12% 67,240 21,423 214%
Volvo Cars NA 5,342 4,756 12% 67,240 21,423 214%
Other (estimate) 251 243 3% 2,967 2,897 2%
TOTAL 1,243,784 1,144,806 9% 12,778,885 11,589,844 10%

Data courtesy Automotive News [sub].

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Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries Month And Year http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-carries-month-and-year/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/grade-the-analysts-caldwell-carries-month-and-year/#comments Thu, 05 Jan 2012 14:32:37 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=424463

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”).

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrys  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 5.1% 7.8% 37.0% 13.40 1.83% 2.30% 4.13%
2 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 5.5% 8.3% 35.0% 13.40 1.83% 4.20% 6.03%
3 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 4.2% 6.8% 34.0% 13.50 1.10% 7.00% 8.10%
4 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 4.5% 7.0% 33.0% 13.30 2.56% 7.50% 10.06%
5 Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) 2.4% 6.4% 34.0% 13.50 1.10% 9.20% 10.30%
6 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 6.2% 7.9% 33.0% 13.20 3.30% 7.30% 10.60%
7 Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 1.0% 9.0% 31.0% 13.40 1.83% 11.00% 12.83%
8 Joseph Spak (RBC) 6.0% 8.0% 30.0% 13.20 3.30% 10.00% 13.30%
9 Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
10 Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
11 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)    NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
12 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)     NA NA  NA 13.50 1.10% 300.00% 301.10%
13 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA  NA 13.40 1.83% 300.00% 301.83%
14 George Magliano (IHS Automotive)   NA NA  NA 13.30 2.56% 300.00% 302.56%
Average 4.4% 7.7% 33.0% 13.40
Actual 5.0% 10.0% 37.0% 13.65

Looking back over four months of Grade The Analysts, Caldwell took fist place three out of four times. Having access to real-time data apparently is not everything. Jesse Toprak of Truecar, who also has access to real time data, came in third three out of four times, and once took 5th. Second place was occupied by a changing cast of bankers & brokers.

We had already given up on Bloomberg’s panel, which usually peers in its crystal ball BEFORE the year comes to an end. Finally, in the wee hours of Jan 4, the day the official results were scheduled to come in, Bloomberg caught up with its panel. Without it, there would have been nothing to grade.

The grading of the analysts was not degraded by both Daimler and BMW withholding December numbers. Autodata, which calculates the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, chose to ignore the dilly-dallying Deutsche and came out with a 13.65 million SAAR yesterday afternoon.

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2011 Car Sales Around The World: Japan Down Around 14 Percent, Pending Imports http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/2011-car-sales-around-the-world-japan-down-around-14-percent-pending-imports/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/2011-car-sales-around-the-world-japan-down-around-14-percent-pending-imports/#comments Thu, 05 Jan 2012 10:22:40 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=424453

Japanese allegedly bought 221,960 vehicles in December, up from 179,666 a year earlier, data provided by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association shows. Japan’s domestic sales of new cars, trucks and buses are up 23.5 percent compared to December 2010. This brings the calendar year total to 2.69 million vehicles, down 16.7 percent. Don’t write this into your Excel sheet just yet, because it is only part of the intricate Japanese sales saga.

Sales of mini cars and trucks are reported by a different body, the Japan Mini Vehicles Association. The kei car group says that 127,246 units were sold in December, up 17.6 percent from December of the prior year. For the calendar year, sales of 1.52 million kei cars are reported, down 11.9 percent.

So can we add 1.52 million to the 2.69 million, give Japan sales of 4.21 million and get it over with? No, we can’t.

Imports to the allegedly closed Japan are tallied by yet another body, the Japan Automobile Importers Association. This august association does not have its numbers ready. They are promised for January 11. They should add another 200,000 or thereabouts cars to the total.

When the numbers are in, we expect the total market to be down around  14 percent for the year, with both full-sized and kei suffering from the tsunami effects, and imports to be up by around 10 percent.

Once we have all numbers, we will give you a complete run-down, by brand, even if we have to go over there and count them ourselves.

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2011 Car Sales Around The World: December Surprise In The U.S.A. http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/2011-car-sales-around-the-world-december-surprise-in-the-u-s-a/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/2011-car-sales-around-the-world-december-surprise-in-the-u-s-a/#comments Wed, 04 Jan 2012 19:21:15 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=424286

U.S. December sales results, and with December, full year results begin to roll in. What we see so far looks like a December surprise: Numbers come in stronger than expected by analysts. Chrysler is up  37 percent in December and 26 percent for the year.  GM is up only 5 percent in December, but 13 percent for the year. Ford up 10 percent in December, 9 percent for the year. Volkswagen surprises with 36 percent up in December and 26 percent for the year. Subaru up 26 percent in December, but only one percent for the year.  Toyota ( not on the list yet) reports a flat December and the year down by 7 percent.

Table after the jump. Watch this page for more updates. Data courtesy Automotive News [sub]

Note: Sales for BMW and Daimler are estimates by Automotive News, as both companies have not reported yet. The totals remain preliminary also.

December U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

(Developing table)

BMW Group 32,230 27,643 17% 305,421 266,269 15%
    BMW division 26,700 23,280 15% 247,773 220,113 13%
    Mini 5,500 4,320 27% 57,300 45,644 26%
    Rolls-Royce 30 43 –30% 348 512 –32%
BMW Group 32,230 27,643 17% 305,421 266,269 15%
Chrysler Group 138,019 100,702 37% 1,369,114 1,085,211 26%
    Chrysler Division 23,974 13,132 83% 221,346 197,446 12%
    Dodge 41,548 32,390 28% 451,040 383,675 18%
    Dodge/Ram 68,143 56,660 20% 708,650 596,627 19%
    Fiat 2,325 –% 19,769 –%
    Jeep 43,577 30,910 41% 419,349 291,138 44%
    Ram 26,595 24,270 10% 257,610 212,952 21%
Chrysler Group 138,019 100,702 37% 1,369,114 1,085,211 26%
Daimler AG 27,800 22,044 26% 266,811 230,934 16%
    Maybach 5 –100% 40 63 –37%
    Mercedes-Benz 27,100 21,469 26% 261,573 224,944 16%
    Smart USA 700 570 23% 5,198 5,927 –12%
Daimler AG 27,800 22,044 26% 266,811 230,934 16%
Ford Motor Co. 209,447 190,191 10% 2,143,101 1,964,059 9%
    Ford division 201,044 173,738 16% 2,057,210 1,752,511 17%
    Ford/Lincoln/Mercury 209,447 190,191 10% 2,143,101 1,931,534 11%
    Lincoln 8,403 8,060 4% 85,643 85,828 0%
    Mercury 8,393 –100% 248 93,195 100%
    Volvo –% 32,525 –100%
Ford Motor Co. 209,447 190,191 10% 2,143,101 1,964,059 9%
General Motors 234,351 224,147 5% 2,503,797 2,211,699 13%
    Buick 14,974 17,095 –12% 177,633 155,389 14%
    Cadillac 16,259 16,718 –3% 152,389 146,925 4%
    Chevrolet 161,158 147,938 9% 1,775,802 1,563,881 14%
    GMC 41,960 42,143 0% 397,973 333,204 19%
    Hummer 38 –100% 3,812 –100%
    Pontiac 130 –100% 1,182 –100%
    Saab –% 608 –100%
    Saturn 85 –100% 6,698 –100%
General Motors 234,351 224,147 5% 2,503,797 2,211,699 13%
Honda (American) 105,230 129,616 –19% 1,147,285 1,230,480 –7%
    Acura 13,129 15,489 –15% 123,299 133,606 –8%
    Honda Division 92,101 114,127 –19% 1,023,986 1,096,874 –7%
Honda (American) 105,230 129,616 –19% 1,147,285 1,230,480 –7%
Hyundai Group 94,155 75,246 25% 1,131,183 894,496 27%
    Hyundai division 50,765 44,802 13% 645,691 538,228 20%
    Kia 43,390 30,444 43% 485,492 356,268 36%
Hyundai Group 94,155 75,246 25% 1,131,183 894,496 27%
Jaguar Land Rover 5,880 4,875 21% 50,375 45,204 11%
    Jaguar 1,137 1,180 –4% 12,276 13,340 –8%
    Land Rover 4,743 3,695 28% 38,099 31,864 20%
Jaguar Land Rover 5,880 4,875 21% 50,375 45,204 11%
Maserati 238 180 32% 2,321 1,897 22%
Maserati 238 180 32% 2,321 1,897 22%
Mazda 22,353 21,479 4% 250,426 229,566 9%
Mazda 22,353 21,479 4% 250,426 229,566 9%
Mitsubishi 5,032 4,874 3% 79,020 55,683 42%
Mitsubishi 5,032 4,874 3% 79,020 55,683 42%
Nissan 100,927 93,730 8% 1,042,534 908,570 15%
    Infiniti 10,990 12,502 –12% 98,461 103,411 –5%
    Nissan Division 89,937 81,228 11% 944,073 805,159 17%
Nissan 100,927 93,730 8% 1,042,534 908,570 15%
Porsche 1,834 2,567 –29% 29,023 25,320 15%
Porsche 1,834 2,567 –29% 29,023 25,320 15%
Saab Cars North America 270 1,074 –75% 5,610 4,838 16%
Saab Cars North America 270 1,074 –75% 5,610 4,838 16%
Subaru 33,701 26,694 26% 266,989 263,820 1%
Subaru 33,701 26,694 26% 266,989 263,820 1%
Suzuki 2,565 2,647 –3% 26,618 23,994 11%
Suzuki 2,565 2,647 –3% 26,618 23,994 11%
Toyota 178,131 177,488 0% 1,644,660 1,763,595 –7%
    Lexus 25,355 27,560 –8% 198,552 229,329 –13%
    Scion 4,159 3,956 5% 49,271 45,678 8%
    Toyota division 148,617 145,972 2% 1,396,837 1,488,588 –6%
    Toyota/Scion 152,776 149,928 2% 1,446,108 1,534,266 –6%
Toyota 178,131 177,488 0% 1,644,660 1,763,595 –7%
Volkswagen 45,474 34,610 31% 443,840 359,889 23%
    Audi 12,655 10,546 20% 117,561 101,629 16%
    Bentley 317 197 61% 1,877 1,430 31%
    VW division 32,502 23,867 36% 324,402 256,830 26%
Volkswagen 45,474 34,610 31% 443,840 359,889 23%
Volvo Cars NA 5,342 4,756 12% 67,240 21,423 214%
Volvo Cars NA 5,342 4,756 12% 67,240 21,423 214%
Other (estimate) 251 243 3% 2,967 2,897 2%
TOTAL 1,243,230 1,144,806 9% 12,778,335 11,589,844 10%
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2011 Car Sales Around The World: Germany Up 8.8 Percent http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/2011-car-sales-around-the-world-germany-up-8-8-percent/ http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/01/2011-car-sales-around-the-world-germany-up-8-8-percent/#comments Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:18:35 +0000 http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=424122

Germans bought 244,501 cars in December, which brought German sales for the year 2011 to 3.17 million units, up 8.8 percent compared to 2010. According to data released by the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt, the German love affair with oil burners continues unabated: 47.1 percent of all newly registered cars run on diesel. In all of 2011, Germans bought 2,154 EVs and 12,622 hybrids.

Nearly two thirds of cars registered 2011 (64.7 percent) are German brands. The government agency (and everybody else in Germany) counts Opel and Ford as a German brand. Porsche (+15.0 percent) and Ford (+16.5 percent) had the strongest growth amongst domestic brands. With a growth of 11.9 percent, Volkswagen further solidified its overpowering lead. Amongst the import brands, Hyundai gained market share with +16.9 percent. Volvo (+31.4 percent) and Lancia (+60.2 percent) were the biggest gainers amongst the import brands. Detailed data can be downloaded here.

 

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