The Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country accounted for 49 percent of all minivans sold in America last month – and their year to date sales total isn’t that far off either.

With nearly 196,000 minivans sold through the end of September, the Chrysler twins make up 45 percent of the total minivan market. Broken out individually, the Dodge Grand Caravan has close to a 10,000 unit lead over the second place Honda Odyssey, and almost 20,000 units on the third place Chrysler Town & Country in terms of year-to-date sales.

Of course, this starts to look insignificant when you look at the data laid out by Timothy Cain. Year-to-date truck sales indicate that the Ford F-Seres, America’s Sweetheart on four wheels, has sold 463,733 units. The entire minivan market has racked up roughly 421,000 units so far. The dominance of pickup trucks is nothing new, but this puts in into perspective if nothing else. Not even record gas prices seem to be able to stop the full-size truck’s hegemonic stranglehold on the American auto market.

As the threat of a strike at Chrysler’s Windsor plant looms, it’s worth examining just how much of an iron grip the Pentastar minivans have on the market.

Tim Cain, TTAC’s favorite third-party sales guru, has the latest numbers for American minivan sales, and the Dodge Grand Caravan is firmly in the lead this year, with 94,639 units sold. While the Honda Odyssey is firmly in second place (86,459), holding a nearly 10,000 unit lead over the fourth place Chrysler Town & Country, the combined sales figures for the two Chrysler vans have them outselling the Odyssey by an almost 2:1 margin. No wonder Sergio Marchionne is so eager to consolidate Chrysler’s minivan offerings under a single umbrella.

According to Cain, 45 percent of minivans sold in America this year have been one of the two Chrysler vans. In Canada, that number is even higher; last year saw the Grand Caravan alone account for 56.5 percent of the minivan market. In 2012, the Grand Caravan is ranked 4th in YTD sales up North. Only the Ford F-Series, Dodge Ram and Honda Civic are outselling it.

Cain cites the Canada Value Package and the American Value Package, which sells for $19,995 in both countries, as a key factor in helping drive sales of the Caravan. The Grand Caravan is an even more attractive proposition in Canada, where higher fuel prices make larger SUVs a less attractive proposition. The Grand Caravan still has plenty of room for kids and their hockey bags (hold your laughter, please, this is a serious issue for a lot of consumers in Canada) without offering the fuel economy penalties that come with a large SUV or crossover.  While the CVP is undoubtedly a loss leader for Chrysler, it helps get customers into the showroom, and as Cain notes

“Family van buyers don’t want to pay $10K more for a similarly equipped Sienna or Odyssey, even if they like it more.”

Now put that in the context of a CAW strike; if the Bramalea plant building the LX cars went down, life would go on. But if Windsor stopped cranking out GCs and T&Cs, there might be a problem. As of September 1st, there was a 27 day supply of Grand Caravans and a 49 day supply of Town & Countrys. They’re not exactly stacking them high and selling them cheap like General Motors is forced to do with their full-size pickups.

With a lock on at least 40 percent of the minivan market, Chrysler isn’t going to be exiting the minivan market anytime soon – but they do have to decide on what direction they’ll take the next-generation minivan. The company still hasn’t decided on whether to kill off the Chrysler Town & Country or Dodge Grand Caravan – or if they should keep both.

The Town & Country has a higher average transaction price than the Grand Caravan, and many have suggested that the Chrysler van would be the sole remaining entrant in the lineup. But the Grand Caravan’s runaway success (where it ranks among the best selling vehicles) in Canada has given executives some reservations about keeping one model only.

Either way, Dodge will have a new crossover to replace the Grand Caravan and Avenger, featuring traditional doors. Any future Dodge minivan would have sliding doors, as expected in the segment. Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne told Automotive News that the Chrysler 700C concept minivan would provide a hint at the direction of future minivans, but that some unpopular styling elements would not make it into production.