Chinese dually. Picture courtesy transportfool.com
I spent an interesting Saturday with two old friends of mine. They had never met before. One, American, CFO of an insurance company, had been in the finance and banking business all his professional life. The other, born Chinese, naturalized American. Was one of the top mortgage writers in the Silicon Valley before the dotcom crash. Came back to China and heads a Chinese/American bank. The two got along splendidly.
Of course, we talked about money and cars. Recently, there was a discussion on TTAC on how the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble would destroy the car market just like it had in the USA. I eagerly set out to pick their brains.
Quite oddly, the first one to throw water on the bubble theory was my friend, the staid CFO of the staid insurance company. (Read More…)
China’s passenger car sales in January skyrocketed an unbelievable 115.5 percent from a year earlier, China’s official scorekeeper, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today. A total of 1.32m passenger cars were sold last month in China, compared with 610,600 units a year earlier. In December 2009, 1.1m units changed hands, Reuters reports. The January number is even more surprising as the China Passenger Car Association had originally figured that China’s passenger car sales rose 84 per cent in January. We compared the Reuters story with Xinhua, the official word on China, and Xinhua also says: “Passenger car sales were up 113.21 percent to 1.32 million units last month.”
Overall vehicle sales, including buses and trucks as well as cars, were even more amazing: A total of 1.66m units in January, up 126.3 percent from 735,500 units a year earlier. Keeping passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles apart is a frustrating exercise in China. Minivans for instance, and of course pickups, count as commercial vehicles. (Read More…)
Commentator ohsnapback, who’s forte is lawyering, a much more complex field than economics, prognosticated an immediate burst of the Chinese bubble, with a mega tonnage of more than 100 times of our housing bubble. The argument was promptly defused. After all, China doesn’t borrow money. They lend it. Mostly to the U.S.
Then, commentator ra_pro rolled out the really big ordnance: “As I said many times previously: Demography is Chinese destiny as it is Japan’s.” If people would only stop prattling on about demographics, and would check their data first. (Read More…)
Come 2010, U.S. customers will storm the few remaining dealerships. GM will go public with a healthy pop that makes the taxpayer rich. The good old times will be back. The Japanese don’t think so. (Read More…)
You have to hand it to the Japanese. They have their numbers down pat. Which country knows on December 1 how many cars they have sold in all of November? Japan does. And guess what: Sales of new cars and trucks in Japan rose 36 percent year on year to 293,410 units in November, says the Nikkei [sub], quoting numbers released by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. And guess what again: This is the fourth straight month that Japanese car sales have been increasing. Hold on, there is more … (Read More…)
So used has the MSM become to China’s red hot car growth, that Reuters headlines the October sales report “Chinese car sales dip in October, but still robust.” China’s passenger vehicle sales clocked-in a year-on-year growth of 79.6 percent in October. In September, the growth was 83.62 percent, which serves as the reason for Reuter’s slight concern. (Read More…)
China will lead the U.S. as the world’s biggest auto market for a “long time,” (if not forever.) This assessment doesn’t come from the Chinese propaganda machine. Nick Reilly, GM’s head of international operations, thinks China is too far ahead of the U.S. and demand will grow next year, Bloomberg reports.
Reilly sees vehicle demand in China increase to more than 13 million units next year from about 12.5 million in 2009. “I don’t see the U.S. being anywhere near that,” Reilly said.