I agree with your trend prognostication. I think that many people have decided they can’t or don’t want to compete in the car fashion contest anymore. It’s out of hand.

Impressive cars now cost sooo much money. And who will be impressed with a 911 or M5 anymore (besides the driver)? My wife and I play the 100k car game all the time. We rarely go a day without seeing a car that sells new for over 100k.

The image one is projecting with a 50 to 100k car is likely one of financial foolishness instead of wealth. Better off driving a more value driven vehicle and renting the ferrari for one weekend a year.

There are many Suburbans and Expeditions on the roads in wealthy areas of Mexico, but seeing a BMW 3-series is fairly rare.

I’ve been to both rich and poor rural areas of Mexico and the roads are generally very good.

I was especially impressed by the toll freeways that are perfectly pristine and smooth, brand new condition with wide lanes and big red-brick shoulders, but which cost $40-$50 US in tolls for a 4 hour trip.

Very good engineering to. The MaxiTunel through the mountains north of Acapulco is 3km long, clean and well lit, and you can go through at nearly full highway speed.

Maybe, just Maybe, this will inspire/require luxury manufacturers to realize that SOME of us will PAY for a small luxury car… we don’t all feel that Luxury = big biG BIG. Looking at Toyota’s Yaris topped-out in Japan makes me a bit jealous.. such a Nice interior on such a Small car…get that? Nice + Small.

But, it’s hard to fully blame the manufacturers. We do run off of Supply & Demand, and if people refuse to understand that a small car can still whipe your rump just as well as a large car (while getting 30MPG in city), why would the manufacturers waste money on production?

Sigh..

I suspect that the entire luxury market might be about to take a tumble.

14
City 16 Hwy
Combined 20

13
City 14 hwy
Combined 16

Compare to Official EPA Window Sticker MPG

2002 Tahoe 4×4
Regular Gasoline
13
City 14
Combined 16
Hwy

2002 Trailblazer 4×4
14
City 16
Combined 20
Hwy

Compare to Official EPA Window Sticker MPG Compare to Official EPA Window

Any place with poor roads is going to be a good candidate for a traditional truck based body on frame SUV. They are much more tolerant of crappy roads.

Our “jeep trails” are highways in some parts of the world. Mexico, Venezuela, etc all come to mind.

A lot of used semi tractors are being scooped up for overseas use.

Gasoline is dirt cheap in Venezuela. The dictatorship there both produces and subsidizes it. Ditto for KSA. So citizens there might be able to afford to drive one, and can afford one.

Think about it – right now (and for at least the next 2-3 years), these “sheep” who own SUVs to be cool – trust me, in TX, it’s probably about as bad as it gets – are trying to get rid and sell these things. Dealers are extremely low-balling because they can or flat-out saying “no.” These same SUVs are selling private party for insanely low prices, and will continue to drop. What does this mean?

This means that all of the other “sheep” who couldn’t afford a used Tahoe 2 years ago now can. The same thing happens for 10-year-old luxury cars; resale is low, so us poor people can finally afford them.

Even with gas prices at extremely high prices, the cost of a new midsize sedan vs. a used Tank is going to be as bad as what it is now, just the other way around. Why pay 22K for a Sedan when you can get a Tahoe for 15K? The gas mileage won’t matter when the car payments are that much lower.

On top of the used SUVs going up for sale, the midsize and small SUV prices are going to drop as well, further encouraging people to buy them.

I’m seeing it all over the place in my home town.. dealers stuffed with trucks and SUVs, selling for insane prices, and lower-income families grabbing on. “Ghetto” downtown is now stuffed to the brim with Tahoes and F-150s that are only 3-4 years old.. Hell, why buy a car when you can stick 30″ rims on a truck without mods? :: eye roll ::

It will get worse before it gets better; I think the only thing that will sign off the deathwish for the SUV will be insurance premiums – the fools that will soon be driving them will wreck them more than they wreck their current beaters, insurance goes up up up, nobody can afford to fix them, they go to the junkyard..

On a lighter note, maybe this will cause the junkyard owners to clean out their current stocks at insanely low prices so those of us with classics can buy a few parts cars for 50 bucks instead of $100 per part

When the rest of the world needs a pickup truck – it looks like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daihatsu_Hijet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isuzu_Elf

If you really needed a truck – this is what you’d be driving…

I am sitting in the office right now and can see the Flying J sign from my auto parts supplier Quality desk. The price is $1.23/ litre. A lot of people here are driving a long way to get to work, because due to the numerous plant closings in Southwewstern Ontario a lot of people are going where ever they have to get a job. We have lines down due to the AA strike and reducing orders. The talk is about sharing rides, Smart Cars, Prius and moving closer to work. Sure no one here talking about a new pickup or SUV. Driving by the GM dealer last night I noticed the line up across the front of the dealership was all P/Up’s and SUV’s. I don’t think here they could even give away as many as they had.

The note lot dealer down at the 33 intersection now has a lot of SUVs. Many of them will go back to Mexico with their purchasers as ICE cracks down and construction jobs disappear.

The other ray of sunshine in this storm is that scrap metal prices are very high.

There will be a flood of these things coming off lease over the next couple of years. It will be ugly for the banks and finance companies.

I don’t think justification is required. Diesel trucks and the handful of diesel SUV’s on the American market are ideally suited for towing and folks who tow like this performance. That’s all of the justification I see is necessary.

Well folks that refuse to learn from the past, are bound to make the same mistakes, aren’t they?

It’s not like it was “hidden history” about the 1973, 1979 and 1990 fuel crises. It’s not like peak oil hasn’t been in the news quite a lot.

But a lot of folks are like sheep. Their neighbors and friends and colleagues buy Stupendously Unsuitable Vehicles, and so they seem to think they have to follow the crowd. It’s part of the silliness of being human. Also, deep down, it is also insecurity (the desire for safety despite making life less safe for others on the road), therefore also selfishness and gluttony (which is not just about food).

So, now the flip side of all of this slaps them on the wallet big-time. I kind of can’t feel very sorry for folks having to run their credit cards twice ($50 limit per swipe) to fill their vehicles for less than a weeks driving.

BTW gas just jumped and I mean jumped to $3.75 here in northwestern Michigan. $4 a gallon is only a jump or two away. Then $5. Then God only knows.

My guess would be to nations where SUV’s are economical.

Or nations that don’t have roads.

What’s not allowed as a Diesel?

Another question: have you towed enough to justify the thousands you paid over a gasoline Ford/GM/Dodge SUV?

Forget about the extra cost when new, the higher fuel prices and upkeep (water seperators, etc) I’ve answered the rest of your questions on my blog posting.