Something Fishy With The Miraculous August Numbers In China

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

GM, Toyota, and Ford reported subdued August sales numbers for China today. This rains on the parade of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center. It said yesterday that August sales in China rose 55.7 percent. Did we say “don’t take it as gospel?”

  • General Motors Co. said its sales in the country rose 19 percent in August from a year earlier to 181,625 vehicles. During the first eight months of this year, GM sold 1.57 million vehicles in China,.
  • Toyota and its Chinese joint ventures sold 77,200 vehicles in China last month, up 16 percent from a year earlier. Toyota’s overall sales in the January-August period rose 22 percent to 503,800 vehicles.
  • August sales by Ford and its joint ventures in China totaled 44,047 vehicles, up 24 percent. They sold 368,103 vehicles during the year’s first eight months, up 42 percent.

The Wall Street Journal notes that “it wasn’t immediately clear why the average growth figure from CATARC was so much higher than those of the three big foreign companies. Officials at CATARC couldn’t be reached for comment.”

According to our patent-pending TTAC China sales forecast model, the GM number points to a sales increase of below 20 percent. Car dealers in Beijing, contacted by TTAC, didn’t report having been mobbed by customers. Actually, August is a slow month in China.

Something is fishy with the CATARC numbers, and it wouldn’t be the first time. They usually grab the headlines first by being out with a number more than a week before the official CAAM numbers are released. The CATARC number is generally unreliable. Wait and see. August 2009 was an extremely strong month with nearly 100 percent growth. Any growth on top of that is a miracle. 56 percent growth looks like a Chinese chimera. Ever since the CATARC numbers had been published, the month starts with a week of confusion. Very un-Chinese.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Jordan Tenenbaum Jordan Tenenbaum on Sep 03, 2010

    Thanks for the Ampelmännchen!

  • I_godzuki I_godzuki on Sep 06, 2010

    Last month's number was close enough to be explained by statistical error or even because CATARC claims to measure retail sales rather than wholesale deliveries. This month, though, is just plain weird.

  • Dave Holzman A design award for the Prius?!!! Yes, the Prius is a great looking car, but the visibility is terrible from what I've read, notably Consumer Reports. Bad visibility is a dangerous, and very annoying design flaw.
  • Wjtinfwb I've owned multiple Mustang's, none perfect, all an absolute riot. My '85 GT with a big Holley 4 barrel and factory tube header manifolds was a screaming deal in its day and loved to rev. I replaced it with an '88 5.0 Convertible and added a Supercharger. Speed for days, handling... present. Brakes, ummm. But I couldn't kill it and it embarrassed a lot of much more expensive machinery. A '13 Boss 302 in Gotta Have It Green was a subtle as a sledgehammer, open up the exhaust cut outs and every day was Days of Thunder. I miss them all. They've gotten too expensive and too plush, I think, wish they'd go back to a LX version, ditch all the digital crap, cloth interior and just the Handling package as an add on. Keep it under 40k and give todays kids an alternative to a Civic or WRX.
  • Jpolicke In a communist dictatorship, there isn't much export activity that the government isn't aware of. That being the case, if the PRC wanted to, they could cut the flow of fentanyl down to a trickle. Since that isn't happening, I therefore assume Xi Jinping doesn't want it cut. China needs to feel the consequences for knowingly poisoning other countries' citizens.
  • El scotto Oh, ye nattering nabobs of negativism! Think of countries like restaurants. Our neighbors to the north and south are almost as good and the service is fantastic. They're awfully close to being as good as the US. Oh the Europeans are interesting and quaint but you really only go there a few times a year. Gents, the US is simply the hottest restaurant in town. Have to stand in line to get in? Of course. Can you hand out bribes to get in quicker? Of course. Suppliers and employees? Only the best on a constant basis.Did I mention there is a dress code? We strictly enforce it. Don't like it? Suck it.
  • 1995 SC At least you can still get one. There isn't much for Ford folks to be happy about nowadays, but the existence of the Mustang and the fact that the lessons from back in the 90s when Ford tried to kill it and replace it with the then flavor of the day seem to have been learned (the only lessons they seem to remember) are a win not only for Ford folks but for car people in general. One day my Super Coupe will pop its headgaskets (I know it will...I read it on the Internet). I hope I will still be physically up to dropping the supercharged Terminator Cobra motor into it. in all seriousness, The Mustang is a.win for car guys.
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