Other than their higher consumption of fuel, SUVs and Trucks have very high utility. The question is, whether the person commuting with it requires all that utility.

My neighbor has two vehicles, a BMW M6 coupe and a Chevy Tahoe. His car gets 13 mpg mixed driving on premium, while his Tahoe gets 15 mpg. The SUV hauls his family of 7, tows his trailer, and carries a lot of stuff. His sportscar gets worse mileage and has next to no family utility, but it’s his SUV that gets the scorn from this group.

I have a family of 7 myself (me, wife, 3 kids, and two grandparents). We have a Honda Accord Sedan and Ford Expedition. We cannot live our lives without the Expedition because no sedan I know of can carry 7 people, cargo, and a couple of dogs.

Not all people are single, living in the city, and can live their lives with a small compact car. I love my Honda Accord, but if we had to lose a car, it would be the one to go.

In spite of currently low usage, OPEC can stop the flow at will. Also, although I admire the Saudis (a little) for keeping the pipelines safe, it is still only a matter of time before the bad guys break through and do some serious damage to the oil infrastructure – somewhere.

There is a trade-off going on right now which might make buying monster vehicles attractive. The discounts on these idiocies are so great ($7,500-$10,000) that, in spite of high fuel consumption, one could justify their purchase.

However, as golden2husky said above, and to quote Santayana completely: “Those who cannot remember history are condemned to repeat it”.

Rick York

That said, I think this cycle of high prices was painful enough and long enough, and people understand that part of the cause of higher prices is increasing demand for oil, that people are less likely to go back to guzzlers, even if the price of gas stays low for a while. No doubt the economic crisis will encourage people to drive smaller, lighter vehicles.

A flexible tariff would be best to mitigate price swings. 50 cents/barrel for every $1 drop below $60.00. Import at $58, add $1 tax.

Throw the money raised into the highway trust fund to buy votes to gain political support.

I’d love for SUVs to recede from the roadscape for the simple reason I prefer to see ahead from a sporting car. But I don’t see it happening. In the ’70s, we had the van rage and just when the last of that blight were limping off our highways, the SUV surge hit to block my view. It will take years to clear these stilted boxes from our roads. I promise, we’ll see more tall cars and crossovers to succeed them. Add high-density window tinting and you still can’t see ahead.

What’s a gas guzzler anyway? And if the owner can afford the fuel, what’s your beef? And since every vehicle category is improving its fuel efficiency, even incremental gains render guzzler-class purchases an improvement over what came before. It’s past time to retire this automotive epithet. There’s no such thing as a gas guzzler in the mainstream market. I recently saw someone on the web describe the “fantastic” fuel efficiency of their small plane, pegged at 18mpg. No doubt that’s an improvement. But outside of a Lambo, a Veyron or a Ferrari, there are no gas guzzlers today — only vehicles with more and less fuel efficiency. “Guzzler” is a pejorative term that only demonizes and needlessly polarizes discussion about vehicle markets, public policy and personal choice. Every vehicle category is improving in fuel efficiency. The vehicle market is bifurcated, with the spreadsheet buyers baffling the emotionally-driven purchasers, and vice-versa. We need neither regulation nor propaganda to sort out our automotive market. Of course higher fuel consumption vehicles are going to increase in new car purchase incidence as gasoline price moderates. Of course, their incidence will decline during price shocks. The bottom line is that most people don’t like to “wear” their car, while some combination of enthusiasts and spreadsheet drivers do. When fuel prices force some percentage of the emotionally-driven market into a cost-pinching decision, any relief from the economics that coerced that choice will have that buyer springing back to their native preferences. You betcha: cheap gas — and gas still *is* cheap in America — will put more people into less miserly cars.

Phil

I imagine some people will change their buying habits, and get a deal on a big suv or truck with gas more affordable.

I am making more trips now with gas more affordable than it was a few months ago.

I bet all the people who purchased used Neon’s and Focus’s at inflated values due to the high gas prices, are kicking themselves now!

Large SUVs will not likely make a comeback anytime in the near future, and it has nothing to do with fuel prices. It’s about frugality coming back into vogue as the economy slows. A Lincoln Navigator will carry all the social status of a chocolate-brown ‘78 Chrysler Imperial. Chinese cars will become the new Hyundai, Hyundai will become the new Toyota, and Toyota will become the new GM. It’s already happening.

One thing is almost certain: At some point there will be a glut of Hybrids with dead battery packs hitting the used car market. By then gasoline will be selling at 5-year lows, and Al Gore will have retired a very wealthy man.

I think it’s absolutely naive and ignorant to assume people will change. My carbon credit says they’ll jump right back into the large SUVs (Stupid Utility Vehicles) the minutes they can.

That is, when/if they can get a 60/72 month loan on one.

DT

Every resource is finite. We don’t have an unlimited supply of Twinkies, either, but the lack of an unlimited supply doesn’t result in one having to pay $5,000 to get one.

The idea that finite = expensive is simply incorrect. The issue is one of whether supplies can keep apace with demand.

The reality is that oil demand growth rates are generally pretty low, in the range of 1-2% per year. Those growth rates are low enough that they are typically met by increasing reserves, which also grow over time as demand for oil prompts the oil companies to go find more of it.

With oil above $50-60/bbl, there has been plenty of motivation to go look for it. When oil was $15/bbl, not so much. Higher prices have prompted more exploration and reserve levels relative to demand remain consistent.

For the moment, we aren’t anywhere close to running out of oil. Perhaps one day we will be, but we aren’t now.

The end of the SUV for now. Only for now though. I think it’ll be back.

Basically people don’t drive their moms car.

Think the SUV will be back to the minivan or station wagon status status; profitable, decent seller, not something to form a foundation around.

Nov 18, an emergency meeting with OPEC has been set. Expect oil production cuts and higher prices. Most of the OPEC member want an $90 floor, and they will defend it. Saudi Arabia’s economy is $50bbl of oil. Same for Canadian Tar Sands, viability is $50 for existing projects, about $80 for new projects that are now on hold.

You shouldn’t expect to see much of a change in the short term. The fleet turnover takes years, and as many here have pointed out, it makes economic sense to keep your SUV if you already own it. Should gas stay expensive, they will leave the fleet sooner than they would normally – why dump 2k into transmission repairs if it is worth less than that – and the junkyards will be full of vehicles that look too good to be there.

If you expect the focus to stay on more efficient vehicles, the price of fuel will have to stay high. Some do buy efficient on environmental grounds, but that number of buyers is small and existed even when gas was cheap. While this will be an unpopular statement to make on this site, I feel that it is in the country’s best interest not to allow fuel to become too cheap. When the price drops too much, the first thing to go is economical cars. Also, the older American oil wells – which is basically most of them – are more costly to operate per barrel of oil, so the oil companies will shut them down and import more, cheaper oil. There goes domestic production. Even with the ability to drill more in our coastal waters, the production price will still be too high if the collapse of oil prices continue. Theoretically I would like to see a minimum floor on prices and the money collected be used specifically for energy related programs – alternatives, helping people improve the efficiency of their home, etc. In reality I worry that the funds collected would be diverted elsewhere. There would have to be a”lockbox” mechanism in place to prevent that.

Just look to the 80’s/90’s for the pattern of what we can expect, energy wise, if oil drops to $40/bbl. All the talk of “independence from imported oil” will again be just that, talk.

At any rate, the reason the price of oil is falling is depressing beyond belief. While some still thought that supply would outstrip demand, and thereby keep prices low, the fact that oil is finite and waning is providing a reality check.
Combine that with an economy in a tailspin…

Still we’ll only see a temporary situation where supply will match or even exceed demand – though as we move to alternative modes of propulsion, demand related to cars and trucks may fall, and thereby keep prices in check.

But as the awareness grows that the world is running out of easily accessible oil, you’ll find oil producing nations will be restricting production, as they wait for (and game) a rise in prices (again.)

The drop now is due to speculators having taken positions that are perilous with the economy flatlining, we’ll see the price start climbing up again soon.

Actually I shouldn’t say can no longer afford. They could never afford those. I should say they can no longer service the debt on one of those, nor are there any longer any lenders to help them do so.

It says something really big when the automakers are no longer willing to lease their own vehicles, because they know they will lose money because the resale of their own vehicles is in the gutter.

In other words, automakers are saying it is a bad business decision for us to get involved in hanging on to rapidly depreciating sinkholes.

Understandable, yet they still expect customers to be willing to do so.

1) I never saw ANY reduction of large vehicles on the road even when gas at the urban stations in chicago was $4.50′ish… Sales might have suffered but nobody around here really bothered changing vehicles. I do see more scotters & bicycles though, but no changes in car traffic.

2) Where is this “Sub $3″ gas? I have seen a SINGLE station in chicago less than $3.60 in recent memory (months..). Everything else is up to $4. I think the place closest to me JUST reduced their regular to $3.99 and premium to $4.19

3) Now that it still isn’t snowing, I continue to use my motorcycle. On my gas guzzler bike I have done 120 miles on the trip meter and haven’t hit 3.5 gallons of usage yet. Alot better than the car @ 16mpg city :)