I doubt it. What is different this time is the rising consumer economies inside China and India. India has about 1.1M people. China about 1.3M. The US, just over 0.3M. Between them a population about 8 times the size of the US’ is buying gasoline powered transportation, many for the first time. Those who can afford it are getting refrigeration and air conditioning. Presently those populations use less than 10% the energy per capita as the US does. All they have to do is to inch up from 10% to 20% to keep the world supply:demand equation out of balance. Prices don’t fall in a seller’s market.

Dogs start wearing hats, berets, and scarves while driving their loyal and loving owners wherever they like. All cars come with ‘I-Bark’ which allow cars to understand the dog’s commands. However most dogs can’t stand the little bone that’s used to direct all the 75,876,321 commands. The bone is replaced with a squishy toy.

All front and rear consoles are replaced with fire hydrants.

Clinton’s old cat Socks comes back from the dead. Socks overthrows the government and puts GWB and Dick Cheney back in power.

The United States invades Mars… and loses.

Tanks were produced in Chrysler facilities, and Cadillac facilities, as well.

The M5 Stuart tank used a modified version of Hydramatic, which was the most advanced transmission of its day. Two of the transmissions were mated to twin Cadillac V8 engines, which were some of the most rugged, reliable engines of that time.

A single predator drone flight now uses more bandwidth and computing power than the entire air campaign during desert Strom in 1991.

The idea of building thousands of tanks and launch them at another army of tanks crashed along with the Berlin wall.

Re: Tanks.

But seriously, American tanks in WW2 were raw shit in a tin box compared to German and Soviet tanks. Possibly because the design was limited to what could be produced in a Lincoln plant converted into a Sherman factory.

True. But German tanks were over-engineered, more costly to produce, more difficult to repair, and the Germans couldn’t make enough of them. For all it’s technical prowess, Germany was still carting a good bit of it’s war materiel around in horse drawn wagons.

peak oil is somewhat mitigated by US coal reserves, the real loser here is the environment.

much like any large debtor, the US is somewhat insulated by the sheer level of debt it owes. on the one hand, business as usual is over, but on the other, Asian nations in particular cannot trash the dollar to the extent it deserves. they would be damaging themselves structurally to do so.

it is unfortunate that the US military has to some degree shredded its conventional superiority, but by taking some lessons from the British Empire they can still salvage some control in the Middle East. Playing a cynical balance of power game, they can pretty much obtain whatever results they desire. Iran is a natural ally in the region if the ruling apparatus can be cut out in some way. Arab Gulf States seem reasonably disposed towards the US, and the others, less relevant in the long run can be punished or rewarded as necessary.

If I was an American, I would purchase some gold, the physical metal-not certificates, and put some money in the resource rich Toronto Stock Exchange–use a Canadian dollar account. This should hedge against inflation and any further declines in the USD. I suspect that plugging someone with a gun will still result in serious jail time for the foreseeable future, so shoot to maim, and keep those guns under lock and key, especially if there are little ones around.

I’m gonna go clean my 30.06 just in case…

It will be the 1980’s all over again.

I believe most of the Shermans were made by Chrysler, not FoMoCo or GM. While the Sherman was inferior to the Panther and Tiger tanks, in both quality of armor and size of the main gun, in a fascist system, the government tells corporations what to do. The Nazis assigned tank construction, in part, to heavy equipment mfgs who were used to building, for example, a half dozen large cranes a year. The US, on the other hand, let companies bid on work.

The Germans built about 25,000 main battle tanks during WWII. The US built about 75,000 Shermans.

The question of quantity vs quality in military hardware exists until today. Do you want to buy one very expensive F-22 or for the same money buy a few F-35s? Of course, the critical component is the pilot, who is expensive to train and hard to replace, which is what really crippled the Japanese after Midway, when they lost over 400 naval aviators.

I suspect as UAVs become more commonplace we may see more countries go with quantity over high performance.

US government develops protectionist policy of unknown effectiveness. It should increase the cost of imports by 10-30% initially, depending on the balance of trade and other factors–a case by case, nation by nation basis.

GM gets loan guarantees under new management. Offshoring is curtailed, incentives established for favoring domestic suppliers. Models and production are rationalized, Volt ends up being a badge engineered Prius with a lot of face saving window dressing. Union gets cut down to size–they will whine, but be secretly relieved.

Ford is punished for rationalizing its operations prior to the carmageddon, gets similar deal to GM, but benefits less, because it was healthier to begin with. Ford products are almost exclusively based on European and Japanese platforms.

Toyota becomes the undisputed market leader in the US. Its flex factories are capable of building a Yaris after a Tundra after a Camry after a Sienna, and profitability soars.

Honda sells one million Fits per year in gas, hybrid and diesel variations. Honda becomes an American based corporation.

Nissan succumbs to the resurgence of domestic style and quality. Dies or reinvents itself.

Mazda is strictly a Ford badged product. Subaru is strictly a Toyota model.

The Europeans smarten up or cease to exist in North America. Possibly BMW eclipses Mercedes entirely, Audi might replace VW entirely here. Without quality and reliability improvements, it’s game over for arrogant automakers.

The US goes through a protracted period of reinventing itself, after shedding counterproductive political and economic idologization. It’s eye of the needle time, but America dazzles when the chips are down.

At some point gas taxes will finally have to be increased to provide funds for road maintenance and discourage consumption of a finite resource: oil. When it happens another nail will have been pounded into the auto industry coffin. A few may survive who are ahead of the curve i.e. Toyota.

We are experiencing the most important change of the 21st century: Peak Oil and its implications. Cheap liquid fuel energy is a thing of the past.

The USA is poorly prepared. It will come as a shock to those who have been living in a business as usual fantasy land.

Ford will be the last man standing. 2010 will come, and the Taurus, Fusion, Flex, and Fiesta will bring it back to profitability. Alan Mulally will become this generation’s Lee Iacocca. Mercury will be dead, Volvo will be sold, and Lincoln will be on its way back up, while big Al has Ford running lean. In a nutshell, it will be happy days again in Dearborn.

GM will limp along for a little while longer, until it eventually runs out of money and goes the way of British Leyland. By that, I mean that the company will dissolve. Buick, Cadillac, and Chevrolet will survive as either independant companies or will be bought up by Chinese and Indian automakers, to be used as trademarks to sell their vehicles under in the US. Red Ink Rick and GM will go down in history as the poster child for corporate arrogance and mismanagement.

Before both of these events, Chrysler would have filed for chapter 11. After this happened, all that was left of their customers will run away in droves, and sales will tank. (Considering how Oldsmobile sales tanked after GM announced that they were discontinuing the brand. Anybody considering an Oldsmobile shopped elseware, despite the fact that there was still a large parent company to still provide parts and support long after Olds had gone), so, Chrysler sales will drop to less than 10,000 units a month. Cerberus would just throw its arms in the air and say “fuck it”, and will put Chrysler up for sale. And then, their fate will be exactly like that of RCA.

So you will get my point, here is a brief history of how the end came for RCA: They ran out of money, and in the late 80s, was bought by rival GE and broken up, the pieces sold to other electronics companies. French electronics maker Thonpson SA bought and to this day own the rights to the RCA name. Today, they sell their products here under the RCA brand name instead of their own due to the fact that it has a strong history and is well known in this country. So essentially, RCA still lives on after the original corporation has died, albeit as just a brand name for a foreign company. With that out of the way, here is what will happen to Chrysler:

Ford will buy Chrysler from Cerberus fir just pocket change, and will break it up, selling its pieces for a profit. Jeep will be spun off and will soldier on as an independent company. The Chrysler and Dodge brands will be completely scraped hollow, and sold to Chinese automakers as just empty brand names under which to sell their vehicles in the US. I will put my money on that Chery will by Dodge, and Geely will buy Chrysler. Then, Chery and Geely will completely eschew their brand names here, and will instead just sell their vehicles in the US as Dodges and Chryslers. So essentially, their fate will be exactly just like RCA: They will be bought by a much bigger and healthier rival, and broken up and sold to foreign companies. Dodge and Chrysler, just like RCA, will still live on, however just as a US brand name for Chinese made vehicles.

I hope my post has provided an interesting look at how the big three will be in a couple years from now.

War-wise, next big war with industrial opponent will be like the WW3 that never happened, we will fight with what we bring on day one, no serious replacements that are not alreacy in supply pipeline.

Don’t bother laying down keels on day 2 of a hot war with China.

I would like GM ford and Chrysler to live, but only Ford makes a vehicle I would even consider.

As for cars, by 2020 Mazda will rule the world :-)

Anyone who knows any history…

Yeah, but that’s the problem, who does? Even if they know the history, can they apply the wisdom that should have been gleaned? Certainly nobody on high at GM, and certainly not many in DC from what I can see.

Before the transplants arrived, the Big 3 succeeded by taking turns failing. Durant ran GM into the wall a couple of times, then Old Henry ran Ford into the wall, etc. while the others did the same and died off. But they haven’t been able to compete with Toyota here, and for all of Wagoner’s chest thumping about GM’s success abroad, let’s wait until Toyota and Honda ramp up production and iron out early issues before judging the ultimate outcome. While the European offerings of Ford and GM seem to compare favorably with their US crops, will they stack up well against the Civic, Fit and diesel and hybrid variations? I have doubts.

It’s amazing to think about the huge assets GM has sold off over the past decade plus under Wagoner et al. Without this cushion the company would have been long gone.

They will be the first to sell large volumes of hybrid vehicles, electric cars and robotic cars that drive themselves.
Toyota also establishes a large 2nd business with the production of cellulosic biofuel.

Honda is Toyota’s fiercest competitor and will be the runner up in US market share.

Chery and Tata will grow strongly as the world’s budget brands.

The Detroit 3 continue on the same path of endless restructuring and market share slide, until maybe they are able to reinvent themselves. Or maybe not.

(this is a prediction for 2015-2020)

Ford survives as the only remaining domestic auto maker.

Chrysler’s business is revitalized by an infusion of cash from the Chinese and the successful development and introduction of the solar powered bicycle.

GM is bailed out by the government and converted into the largest U.S. defense contractor. This arrangement allows it to flourish while still rewarding the levels of greed and incompetence that the country expects from the General.

GM’s big breakthrough comes from the creation of a revolutionary new weapon of mass destruction that was commissioned to keep the Russians, Chinese and Iranians in line. This system equips GM’s massive former dealer inventory stockpile of GM Silverado pick-ups and Tahoe SUVs with aftermarket solid- fuel rocket boosters and computer guidance systems designed to launch them on an unsuspecting populace.

Toyota’s quality and reputation have crested. It is heading for No. 2. Slow and steady Honda will supplant it as No. 1. Innovative, feisty Nissan will be No. 3.

If GM & Ford go under, who’s gonna make tanks?

I guess General Dynamics, same way that they do today? :-)
GM and Ford aren’t that involved in the ground systems that the military uses.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ground/index.html

What next?

Let’s hope management is thrown out over at GM, because they couldn’t have done a worse job if they had been sent there by a competitor.
Which means that people who have been chafing at the bit may get a chance — and then let’s hope they realize that the future is energy lean, and that they have to rethink the transportation equation completely.
They can still leapfrog a generation, and really provide tomorrow’s solutions, but they’re starting to lag because of their insanely delusional ways.

Most of my comments hold for GM, Ford is better off, because they did get rid of old management.

P.S Eggsalad, if war machines must be made by a domestic company, why do the US military do business with BAE systems (British company) and EADS (European company)?

That’s an excellent question, and there are no good answers.

In many ways, our politicians in Washington are no smarter than GM management.

The guys who currently make tanks perhaps.

But seriously, American tanks in WW2 were raw shit in a tin box compared to German and Soviet tanks. Possibly because the design was limited to what could be produced in a Lincoln plant converted into a Sherman factory.