The expensive toy market is in terrible shape. I can’t get anywhere near the price for my airplane that I would have a couple years ago, and planes over four years old have traditionally appreciated. (I say 2 years ago because threatened FAA fee changes along with fuel and income tax rule changes actually gave us a whack even before this downturn.)

I say we toy owners need a bailout from Washington. Hell, the light plane manufacturers have started layoffs already. This is about jobs! If recreational luxuries like collectible cars, nice boats, and light aircraft become worthless the owners won’t be buying anymore upgrades or trading up. There will be LOTS of closed businesses and thousands of lost jobs.

Ya, where da hell is OUR bail out!

\sarcasm

I’m not sure what a mint 1970 Plymouth Road Runner with the 440 Six-Pack was selling for during the peak, but I’m guessing it was more than $30K.

I think we will see some of the cars that were selling for $30K during the peak selling for $15K.

I would not be at all surprized to see prices on muscle cars falling on average 50% from their early 2000s peak.

Europe and Asia are having economic problems as severe, if not worse, than ours.

Plenty of foreigners are eager to snap up old American iron (which makes me chuckle at the posters here who look down upon 1950s and 1960s Detroit iron as crude and unsophisticated compared to those “superior” foreign cars – someone needs to tell this to the Europeans eagerly paying good money for old American cars).

Even if more Americans can’t afford these cars, or are forced to sell because of economic reverses, there is still a very big overseas market for these cars. So don’t think that you will be getting that mint 1970 Plymouth Road Runner with the 440 Six-Pack for about $15,000 any time soon…

Chuckgoolsbee: Don’t be such a snob by ridiculing people paying “Ferrari” money for GTO’s. A vehicle is worth what somebody is willing to pay for it, period. Is a baseball player worth a few million a year for a stupid game while a cancer research scientist gets paid under $100K? The sad answer is yes, because that is what society and the market has determined to be their relative worth. It is no different for cars, or anything else for that matter.

Highrpm: Musclecars, compared to other cars of that era, were not particularly unreliable. Some exhibited engine failure or drivetrain problems but that was more due to the extreme abuse they received than being poorly designed. For those who were weaned on cars of the 90’s and up, any car from the sixties is going to feel pretty damn crude – and that goes for the foreign ones, too.

Expect something like this with the muscle cars in a decade. They look nice enough, but really they aren’t that fast and they were never that reliable or durable. They were pretty much run-of-the-mill cheap cars with big engines, built with 60’s technology and manufacturing know-how.

1975, it was. I saw the Plymouth Superbird for sale. A real one. Sure, the original 440 engine had blown and was replaced with a 383 but all esle was origninal. $1,800. But, being in the Navy I had no place to park or store it wnd no relatives with a place where I could store it.

I KNEW it would go up in value but….

Across town was a primo look-like-new 1971 ‘Cuda red convertible. 440 and a 4-speed with mucho options.

Looked so fine!!!!!! Original. Clone stuff was rare back then. $2,600.

Sniff.

I wanted both. If only I had a kinfolk that had a farm with a barn or anything where I could have safely stored the critters as the years passed.

Sniff.

Agreed. My FIL (mid-60’s) has a couple of Model A’s he restored….the market is much softer than it was 25 years ago when he bought them. Little interest in that many Model A collectors have died off.

I love cars (especially the big, expressive coupes: Monte Carlo, Ford Elite) from the 70s. But if given a choice I’d buy a 2002ti, 912, or something funky like a Datsun 610.

There is a whole world of strong money out there, and when your economy comes out on top again (and of course it will) you will only be able to read about LS6 Chevelles and Shelby Mustangs in glossy magazines, ’cause you will have to travel to my side of the big pond to see one in real life.

Just you wait til some of the newly rich chineese get a cravin for some Hemi Muscle, then you will see fighting at your garage doors !!

When the market for stock goes down, usually a bit later old car prices go up. I have always thought people in some number have taken money out of the market to by tangibles. The total size of the car market is limited so even a few doing that send prices up. Then usually when things improve, car prices don’t go down usually, they just get stuck with fewer changing hands for awhile.

There will no doubt be a few ‘deals’ to be had when some guy needs cash in a hurry. But unless things get truly horrific, like Great Depression horrific, I expect cars to hold price till spring, and then go up some more. Till then, and maybe even then sales will be slow, but I think prices will go up, not down.

It’s expecially in the ‘clone’ world that I think you’ll see these guys who’ve spent $10,000 on a Chevelle 300 to make it a ‘SS396′ take a huge hit.

In the very long run, consider this: ‘

The US has always ‘grandfathered’ old cars. You got a 1911 Ford? Hey, just make sure it’s in good working order and has license plates.

Similarly, you’ll very likely be able to run your LS-6 Chevelle untill you’re too old to see because the Feds will continue with their grandfather policy for emissions and safety.

If we really are heading into a period of electric cars, it’s quite possible that the vast nostalgia market – where you can theoretically buy every part for a ‘57 Chevy – will continue on in good stead forever.

Rock n’ Roll ( and the drive in car culture of Americana) really WILL never die.

I don’t buy the argument that these vehicles are investments. They are, at best, speculative.

Investments should be in something which actually generates a return. You invest, for example, in a rental property, a factory, a new design for something, a storefront or some other activity or property which has the possibility of generating future cash flow through ongoing activities. Any other kind of “investment” isn’t an investment at all, it is speculation. Spending money to open or expand a gold mine is investing. Buying existing gold to sit on in the hopes that the price will go up is speculation/gambling.

People seem to have completely forgotten the distinction between investing and gambling.

Pricing on collectibles is set by the relative balance between supply and demand. You don’t need to loose all of the buyers for demand to go down, just some of them. If cash strapped owners increase the number of vehicles on the market by 10% and the reluctance of some wannabe buyers reduces the demand by 10% then you will see a big reduction in prices. A lot of the collectors already have garages and warehouses full of cars and can quite happily sit on their hands for a year or more. Finally, the demographic of the muscle car buyers is pretty much getting a year older with every passing year. More and more are going to die, move to a nursing home or just ramp down their hobby activities as the days go on. Today’s 30 year olds are buy and large not itching for the chance to someday own an original ‘Cuda.

…I wonder if I can track it down…

I was never interested in the muscle cars and didn’t really understand the absurdity of the market in recent years.

I’m a ’50s man, myself. I (Heart) my 1958 Plymouth Belvedere!

I see where you are coming from, but nothing short of an epidemic or a economic meltdown that causes a run on our banking system will keep car guys from buying what they like.

The inability to get cash out of their homes and the penalties that come with cashing out 401K/IRAs will stop car guys from buying what they like. Demand is the desire to possess something, combined with the ability to purchase it.

I see where you are coming from, but nothing short of an epidemic or a economic meltdown that causes a run on our banking system will keep car guys from buying what they like.

A 69 Chevelle SS 396 or how about 69 Swinger 340?Maybee a Roadrunner 426 Hemi.
Nah, your generation will never get it.I mean really you guys figure a Fart can on a Civic is something special.

Gold is very unique in its negative correlation to the economy. When the economy is doing well gold prices go down, while the prices of other tangible assets go up.

The demand for collector cars, especially those under $100K, was fueled by HELOCs and cash out refinances.

Now that nobody can get cash out of their house and a lot of people are desperate for cash there is going to be a lot of supply and not much demand.

If there was really a flight to tangible assets going on, as some people erroneously claim, then the housing market would be booming – land is the most tangible asset of all – and they are not making any more of it. I case any one has noticed, the real estate market is not booming. All other commodities, except for gold, are also sharply down in price.

Even Ferraris and other rare classics are not recession proof. I remember seeing charts in Car and Driver where rare Ferrari’s values plummeted during the early ‘90s recession.

We’re in for a very long buyers market – horrible news for people that bought what they could not afford, annoying-but-not-devastating news for those who bought what they could afford, and great news for those who have not bought yet and can manage to keep their jobs.

Around that same time, one guy in Florida bought a ‘94 Supra with around 50,000 miles on it for $24,000. Kept it a while, modified it until it made twice the stock horsepower, returned it to stock, sold it for exactly what he got it for with 110,000 miles on the clock.

Not only that, but the people who actually want those old cars are starting to die off
rpn
Not really, actually many people who are into these cars are just now retiring, if they did alright, and like cars they are now looking to buy, either to rebuild themselves or buy finished to go to shows and enjoy the hobby. That’s what it is for most people, a hobby. Recently was at a major show for 64 and older cars, over 11,000 cars showed up. I think the hobby(and its fans) are a long way from dead. there were a lot of 30 and 40 somethings there as well.