The Northeast and California have supported higher taxes, which are assessed most heavily against the top earners, and most high earners live in those areas.

One would therefore expect that residents of those states would pay more taxes under those policies. They are only getting what they want…

No, December is the good old days.

We are looking at a trend that will last at least several years. There is nothing on the short term horizon that looks to change this; on the contrary.

No effective inflation-adjusted wage increases in three decades, no one able or willing to get credit for a too-expensive item, job losses everywhere you look, wage and benefit cuts everywhere, house equity loans kaput, a huge glut of latish model used cars, government and Fed in full panic mode, generating money and throwing it everywhere as fast as they can. OK, not everywhere; in fact, at only a very few select targets who also happen to be buds.

Raw material costs are falling. The dollar is rising. There is no justification for the prices of cars staying the same in an overall price deflation while inventory stacks up.

The longer manufacturers insist on wishing prices, and the longer that governments subsidize these prices, the longer until sales start to move again.

This will take years.

One year ago, who predicted what we are seeing today? No one quoted by the press, no one. Their creds are shot, they were way wrong. And a year from now will sales under 8 million they will be claiming the same crap: nobody could have seen this coming. When they, too, earn their livings from the auto industry: bought and paid for (or not), Jack.

No, it is a sign being removed from a dealership which gave up its franchise to focus on used cars and service.

Subaru stayed off my list because their sales were actually up last year. They have a well defined niche and seem to serve it well. Subarus also seem to be a target move-down vehicle for those coming off their monster truck hangovers.

I should have included Mazda though. A cool niche brand, but they haven’t exactly covered themselves in market glory in the good times. Just how many Japanese vehicle brands will a shrunken US market support?

Hey, factotum, what are the chances of CA seceding from the Union? You could save a bundle in federal taxes (no more corn ethanol!). Surely Schwarzenegger is better protection than the Department of Homeland Security!

The only caveat I would throw into the mix is how we measure “ownership”.

The US numbers count licensed vehicles. I’m sure with some creative datamining I could come up with some approximate number of cars that are unlicensed/unregistered.

Now I’m sure everyone here has registered and licensed all of their vehicles, but I’ve heard stories about car nuts who have dozens of cars. Most with open titles. Or have cars in the garaqe that are titled to them, but aren’t licensed. Some collectors, some just spare cars that nobody has needed to drive.

Just a thought.

Bluecon, the Feds have transferred about a trillion dollars out of the industrial Midwest, which has a net federal tax drain. Much of that money went to the South, that has a net federal tax gain. It’s the industrial Midwest, Pacific coast and Northeast that have been subsidizing the South, not vice versa.

“Car ownership is also high in wealthy countries with remote rural populations, such as Iceland and New Zealand. Surprisingly, America, home of the motor vehicle, has fewer cars per person than either Australia or Canada.”

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12714391&source=features_box_main

Even if we account for classics, antiques, rare cars, hunting jeeps, etc., we’ve still got enough vehicles to sit it out for a while.

GM can help by kicking out Pontiac and GMC, which I don’t think bring in the marginal profit over cost required to dress up these Chevys. Buick and Cadillac stay, because they do represent profit as well as future sales (medium term, not necessarily the long term).

You’re right, of course I have no power. I’ll just not give DC any of my money. If 10 million do the same we can start a revolution.

And then the Fed’s are subsidizing the North at the expense of the South.

As to how people are buying new cars and yet they are lasting longer, I’ve noticed over the last 8 years or so that you didn’t really see jalopy’s all that often. The cars with mismatched body parts, severe gashes, severe rust, disappeared from the road, thought they have made a comeback in the last 6 months. My guess is that the less prosperous benefited by the excess new car production by having better used wheels. The parking lot at my high school was full of beaters; not so much these days.

Too many factors against car purchases and it is not just credit availability. Face it, the car for many folks is merely a tool. The tool is becoming expensive and burdensome. Time lost sitting in traffic sucks. Alternatives to getting around are increasing. Car sharing services are taking off. Vehicles do last longer if properly cared for. A lot of folks are entering retirement with extra cars and not much of a cushion for retirement. Generation X lacks a financial safety net too and has had job insecurity and housing losses too. I’ve witnessed folks unloading extra vehicles this past year, start using the bus and ride bicycles to work. The market is and has changed.

The more I look at the numbers, the more it would appear as though 8MM for 2009 is highly optimistic.

All the academics and honest government insiders are saying that 2009 is going to be far worse that 2008. Facts on the ground continue to support that view.

These are not really complicated algorithms.

Look at the imaginary growth that was driven by the real estate bubble, the stock market bubble, the invisible growth of unregulated insurance (CDSs)to make it happen. Look at average income, average household debt. Number of foreclosed homes, number of people late on their HELOs, value of their 401k plans.

Add and subtract as you play. Stir in 10%+ official unemployment.(The real number is always the official number + about 4 points, but I digress.)

Bottom line, there’s always somebody who has to have a new car. But it’s going to be the people who have to have one.

10MM in 2009? Uhh, nope.

Uh, not going to happen if I can help it—this bailout is a one-time-deal. Make it work or reorganize because by ‘government help’ they mean ‘my tax dollars’ and I’m tapped out. I get taxed when I earn and taxed when I spend. As a small business owner, in California, I have to pay the Franchise Tax Board $800 every year for the privilege of doing business here even if I don’t make a profit that year. Nevada looks better every year (no corp tax, no personal income tax). But, I digress.

We’re in a recession. Of course there is going to be a contraction of industry, commerce, and services. The government cannot and should not prop up businesses when there is an oversupply simply to save jobs. I would approve of the govt using tax dollars to retrain displaced workers or temporarily employ them in a 21st century New Deal jobs corps. We need new bridges, roads, etc. and the people to operate and maintain the machines to do it. I’d rather my taxes go to create something useful, long-lasting and vital to our security and economy…

Agreed on that point, but I would still like to see the how the numbers work. Facts are tricky things in the hands of the media (and others.)