Germany In March 2010: Down 26.6 Percent
Have you ever seen a junkie on withdrawal? Not a pretty sight. This is what the German car market looks like. Taken off Abwrackprämien-money, cold turkey has got Germany on the run. According to just released data of the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt, March 2010 new car registrations in Germany are 26.6 percent below March 2009.
Expect the bad news to get worse: February/March 2009 was when the German version of cash-for-clunkers kicked the market into speed-induced overdrive. Any comparisons with last year will look downright awful, well into the last months of the year.
One silver lining: March 2010 is 2.7 percent better than March 2008, and that was before carmageddon. If the market continues that way, it might get back to its old normal, and the pull-forward theorists will be proven wrong. I’ve said it before and I say it again: People who drive cars 9 years or older are not your typical new car buyer. They usually buy used. At least in Germany. Most of the 1.7 people who cashed-in on government money last year had never been in a new car showroom before, and will never be seen there again.
Last year’s winners are this year’s losers: Subcompacts lost 45.4 percent, compacts lost 41.8 percent.
Likewise, last year’s losers are this year’s winner: Premium cars, which were pretty much unsalable last year, are coming back.
If you want more: The ever so fastidious Kraftfahrtbundesamt offers the monthly report for download, the good, the bad, and the unbearably awful.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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