problem solved

Note that if the elderly are in fact more likely, as a group, to get into crashes, this does not mean that all old people are bad drivers, and become dangerous at the same rate. It is likely just be a question of weeding out a few drivers whose skills have declined while leaving the rest alone. Periodic sight, hearing and road skills tests (for all drivers, or all drivers above a certain age) would be a way to approach this problem. For pilots, even private pilots flying small planes, the FAA requires rather frequent medical exams in order to remain current, which are fairly strict. And while there has long been an age cap on airline pilot licensing, the safety justification that is usually proffered is largely regarded as a pretext, and it is understood that the real reason for the rule is to muster pilots out of the workforce at a predictable rate so that new pilots can find jobs (and to make sure that wage rates don’t go too high with too much seniority).

To return to the original question, I think that the following statistics could help sort out the real story behind elderly driver fatality rates:

1. Accidents per year per elderly driver, compared to drivers on average.
2. Accidents per 100,000 miles driven per elderly driver, compared to drivers on average.
3. Injuries and fatalities for passengers of elderly drivers, broken down by the age of the passenger.
4. Injuries and fatalities for those in cars involved in a crash with a car driven by an elderly driver.

If elderly drivers tend to retain their skills but die more frequently because they are frail, then 1 and 2 should show no difference between elderly drivers and drivers at large. If elderly drivers lose some skill, but compensate for it by driving less, then 1 should show no difference while 2 should show a difference, but in such a case we should conclude the people are reasonable and, on their own, countering increased accident risk with increased precautions over time. Item 3 should reveal whether the accidents that elderly people get into are, in fact, unusually dangerous ones, or whether they are average or even less violent then normal (the increase in fatality thus due to frailty), and item 4 should inform our discussion regarding whether elderly drivers tend to pose a serious risk to others.

I also think it would be good for society to figure out ways to make it easier for elderly drivers to keep driving. For example, perhaps when competence declines to a level where someone needs to drive more slowly than most people on the road, they could have a conspicuous “O” plate on the back of their car, so that other drivers wouild give them some slack.

The driving issue–combined with the difficulty of getting around most places in the US on public transit–is the one thing that makes me think a self-driving car might be a good thing. And I hate the idea of self-driving cars.

People living in retirement homes in FL are most likely far different in many ways than those of us living in the Sierra and XC skiing the winter and mountain biking in the summer, at 70 plus. With a BMI of 25 or less.

Sweeping generalizations and stereotyping are really annoying.

After spending time in Florida and Arizona and sharing the road with many elderly drivers, all I can say is look out! Just like Seinfeld said, the old drivers keep getting smaller while their cars keep getting bigger. But bless their hearts, I guess we’ll all be that way someday.