Depends on how you define maturity. Let’s see if China really ever gets to the same levels of cars/people ratio as the G7, etc. I predict not.

But you reiterated my point about consolidation; now that is inevitable.

The Chinese have (depending on how you look at it and interpret the notoriously unreliable Chinese numbers) between 20 and 40 million cars. It has a population of officially 1.3 billion people, inofficially it is 1.5 billion. Statistically, China hasn’t even begun to motorize (the traffic in Beijing says otherwise.) To saturate this market, it takes 750 million cars. China currentlly cranks out 10 million cars a year, at that rate: 75 years until saturation. The world cranks out around 60 million cars a year. If the whole world would produce for China only (and it won’t) it would still take more than 10 years.

If you want to see mature markets, look at the USA, Europe, and Japan. In my book, Europe and Japan are in more serious danger, because they are lacking the young people. The US is in slightly better shape. Thank the sexually active Hispanics for that.

As for the number of Chinese car makers, nobody has it. Some say 60, some say 120. My friends at Gasgoo say 40. Profits: They work at very slim profits. How can you make 30% profit if you sell a QQ for less than $4K? China will see a big consolidation in the next two years, the small will go away or get gobbled up, the big 10 will get bigger.

The past 10-15 years in China were comparable to the early years in the US, 1900-1929, when there were dozens of manufacturers, and GM wouldn’t sell a car unless it had a 30% profit margin. That all changed, didn’t it. It will in China, too. And a lot quicker than it happened here.

@John Horner: Politically difficult? Getting the blueprints for the Airbus production might be more sensitive than getting the plans for a GMC Yukon. They got the Airbus blueprints. Bill Clinton himself was connected with the Chinese getting missile guidance secrets as far back as the late 90’s.The only strategic value of a Chevy Cobalt is in the name. Why would China owning a failed GM be more politically difficult than China financing a good chunk of the American debt? China is a peaceful country. They were the ones who’ve been invaded again and again. When was the last time China started a war? Why is China politically more difficult than Japan or Germany? Get over it. It’s 2008.

Holden would be an easy grab for a Chinese company. Plenty of know how, and the Australians are already bending over backwards to sell China everything and anything. Neither the US government nor Australia’s are likely to object.

When the front door is heavily defended, come in through a side door.

Weird, eh?

He threatened Nixon (when Nixon was VP) with the Soviet Union “outmanufacturing” the US — didn’t happen.

The Chinese just made it irresistible for greedy Western business leaders to move their manufacturing to China. Krushchev must be kicking himself, wherever he is – not only was it easy to do, but it could have made the Soviet Union rich in the process, while weakening the economies of his antagonists. Instead of breaking the Soviet Union with the expense of keeping up with NATO, Krushchev and subsequent Soviet leaders could have earned money and developed their national industries like the Chinese.

Someone is laughing. The Chinese are quite adept at long term planning, and love using the opponent’s strength against the opponent.
Quite ingenious of the Chinese to circumvent the “not to be traded abroad” agreement with their partner foreign manufacturers by buying them up – with their own money.

If the Japanese can establish themselves firmly in Western markets, you bet the Chinese can do it just the same.

Interesting. Not a shot fired.

1) GM doesn’t get a bailout and dies before New Year’s Eve. In this case, Dongfeng and SAIC both can pick up all the “assets” they want without any UAW baggage.

2) GM gets the money but will fail anyway. The outcome would be the same, only later. And the Chinese have time.

3) GM gets the bailout and actually turns the company around. Unlikely but not completely impossible. This would mean, that they will have gotten rid of all the “follow-up expenditures”. At the same time, the stock price will probably still not go through the roof immediately, which would turn GM into a nice meal for either Dongfeng or SAIC.

The vultures are circling…