The fortunes of small cars used to be tied to gas prices. Sales of compacts rose when gas prices shot up, when gas came down, big was beautiful again.  Sales of small cars are up strongly in America, but this time, it’s different, think two of the US motor industry’s most senior executives. They believe that the trend won’t reverse, and that sales of small cars will go further up.

“I think it’s going to be a permanent change,” Mary Barra, senior vice-president of automotive development for General Motors, told the Financial Times. “I think you’re going to see a shift that doesn’t bounce back.”

GM’s sales of mini, small and compact cars were up 97 percent in September, the only bright spot in an otherwise lackluster sales report.

Bob Shanks, CFO of Ford, expects “that small cars will become an increasingly large portion of the North American market, and in fact the global market.”

Ford recorded a 73 percent year-on-year increase in small car sales  in September, the best small car sales month in 10 years.

Sales of the subcompact Fiat 500, which Chrysler markets in the US, were up 51 per cent year-on-year.

Compact and subcompact cars accounted for only a combined 21.5 per cent of the US car market in August, against 24.6 per cent for sports utility vehicles.

Big iron is playing an important role for GM and Ford. If their executives think that small has a big future, drastic changes could be ahead.

A couple of months ago, Aaron Robinson of Car & Driver wrote an expansive article about Scion.

This quote pretty much summarized his view on the brand.

“I have no doubt that Scion will eventually go the way of Plymouth.”

I’m sure he wasn’t implying that cheap Scions will someday morph their way into becoming Toyota equivalents that offer fake wood trim exterior panels and trombone case red interiors. As a long-time automotive writer and columnist, he was simply reading the proverbial writing on Scion’s firewall that has been ever deeper ingrained into their product line.

“Mediocrity… is killing the brand.” This inscription ought to be welded onto every frumpish inner panel of Scion’s soon to be defunct models, the Scion xB and Scion xD. Underpowered compact cars that look like SUV’s in 2012 sell about as well as two-seater cars that look like frogs. Or bland plain-jane sport coupes that try capriciously to do battle with the market leaders.

Heck, I recently saw a perfectly fine 2010 Scion Xb with only 28k miles sell for $10,000 at a well attended dealer auction. A near forty percent drop off the original MSRP over just a two year period. In my profit driven world, where nearly every Toyota model represents stiff price premiums and high demand finance fodder, nobody wants to buy these things.

The reason for this market failure is obvious.

If a product is inherently bad or terminally neglected, no name brand will save it. It’s that simple. Every brand out there has market failures. In the case of Scion, they are going from a 2 for 3 boom on their debut generation (xB and tC good, xA not so much) to a 1 for 5 second run (FR-S may likely be the sole survivor.)

Scion is on the ropes if you look at their current model line-up. But the same could have been said for Hyundai back in 1999, Subaru back in 1994, or even the 1st generation Infiniti models back in 1992. All of these brands suffered mortal market wounds of the debilitating type.

But that did not mean the brands could not fill a gaping void in the marketplace. All of them succeeded because they found several niches that no other brand could fully satisfy.

Which brings us to the dire need of the present day.

Right now Toyota and Honda are facing a market exodus in one broad segment that is largely a reflection of their own long-term successes. Where do you go after you have already owned the reliable family car? Or the commuter scooter that has taken you everywhere and back with low ownership costs?

In the old world the move was pretty simple. The automotive world was upwardly mobile and that Toyota or Honda buyer could be just as content in a Lexus or Acura. Unfortunately, something terrible happened to both of these prestige brands between the Clinton era and the modern day.

They became boring, generic, and a bit old fogey in their market reach. These days a middle-aged person generally does not aspire to own a Lexus or an Acura. If they have put in their dues of driving the family car, they are looking for that thrill. As is the younger guy who is not quite ready to settle down, but is finally making the big bucks.

These folks, if they are willing to spend their money, often want the anti-Toyota. The anti-Honda. The car that is more involving to drive… but… with this desire also comes a concern.

These buyers also want a car that is reliable and doesn’t represent a potential black hole in their annual budget. Like everyone else, they want to have their cake and eat it too.

Two potential options are out there. The first is testing out a sporty prestige brand. An Audi. A BMW. A sports oriented car that is heavily marketed as a lease vehicle and can provide them with that extra thrill that they certainly won’t get with another Camry or Accord.

My brother Paul is the poster child for this. Two new Toyotas and one new Honda for the family over the last 15 years. The oldest child is about to go to college. The money is in the bank. The sacrifice of ‘fun driving’ for ‘family driving’ has already been made.

Did he want another Toyota or Honda? No, Paul and his wife wanted something different. Something that was not already driven by their senior citizen parents. They bought a 2012 Audi A6 and a CPO Audi A4.

The second option is to get the fun affordable car. Not too long ago fun usually meant two doors and a possible slight engine and suspension upgrade over the plain four door model. This is one of the main reasons why the Toyota Camry remained so dominant during the late 1990′s and early 2000′s. Fun and four doors were few and far between.

These days an affordable four door model can be just as sporty without the past sacrifice at the altar of practicality. A car with an Accent, a Soul, a good Fit, or a Focus, can be every bit as enjoyable to drive as a Veloster, a Forte, a Civic, or dare I say it… a Mustang.

Whether prestigious or plain named, a slew of buyers want the option to buy a fun car that does not share the same emblem of the car that they have been driving ever since the kids were little. Or ever since they were struggling to get established.

It’s not because they are unhappy with that reliable car. Sometimes folks just want something that is ‘not’ what they have been driving. Even if it has been a good car.

I can see Scion becoming the fun side of Toyota. The sporty side of a company that can already register millions in annual sales by harvesting the fertile fields of those seeking the ‘family car’, the ‘retiree car’, the ‘keep my ownership costs low’ car.

Toyota is already losing that buyer who picks the Altima over the Camry. The Mazda 3 and Fiat 500, over a Matrix or a Corolla. The reality is that by attracting a more conservative and older audience, you sometimes have to make compromises in design and interior ergonomics that make a car less appealing to those seeking fun and sport. Or even just simply something different.

There is still a gaping void of ‘fun’ between $15,000 and $35,000 that Scion could define as their specific market. I have no doubt that a car with the Toyota halo of reliability, coupled with sharp looks and exceptional handling, could lead to a new era of success for Scion.

The question is whether Toyota will invest in a Scion worthy of that reputation. To me the FR-S is one of those models. Should there be others?

Video killed the radio star. And the Internet is about to kill the auto industry. Researchers at the University of Michigan noted a disturbing trend: More young adults would rather surf the web than cruise the highway.  In a new study, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the U-M Transportation Research Institute found that a higher proportion of Internet users is associated with fewer drivers licenses among young persons.

It is a worldwide trend. Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Norway and South Korea have seen similar declines over time.

About 94 percent of Americans in their 20s had a driver’s license in 1983. In 2008, that number had dropped to about 84 percent.

With a massively growing population, and no Chinese-style national one-child policy in place, sterilization campaigns in India’s provinces and municipalities are far from uncommon. But now, in the Rajasthani district of Jhunjhunu, officials in charge of sterilization campigns have found a new incentive to encourage Indians to undergo the procedure: the subcontinents growing obsession with automobiles. Britain’s The Independent was the first Western news outlet to report on the scheme, which offers those undergoing sterilization

a coupon for a forthcoming raffle, with prizes including a Tata Nano car, motorbikes and electric food blenders.

The prizes for the Jhunjhunu raffle were donated by a local university, and because compensation for sterilization is technically illegal in India, a Tata Motors spokesman tells the New York Times that

The Rajasthan initiative you are referring to — we are not sure whether it is a government or a private initiative – has got nothing to do with Tata Motors or its dealers. We have not been aware whether this is being shown as endorsed by the company.

Tata says it will “look into” the scheme, but with sales of “India’s Model T” flagging, even this questionable promotion might well be welcome. After all, many Rajasthanis seem to grasp the practical benefits of sterilization, but have a hard time finding the motivation to leave farms in order to receive the surgery. One woman, interviewed by The Independent, seemed to sum up the mood:

Ms Kumar explained how she had opted for the operation for purely practical reasons. But she admitted she was excited by the prospect of the raffle. She said: “If I am to win anything, I hope it is the car.”

In modern India, where booming sales of ultra-cheap cars conceal the reality that millions remain without mobility, it seems that the offer of even the cheapest car on the market is motivation enough to forgo having children.

One of the most challenging aspects of running a blog like TTAC is managing diversity. As a global site, TTAC and its readers are exposed to the full range of diverse global perspectives, but our largest market, the United States, is also home to incredibly divergent views and lifestyles. Much is made of our national polarization these days, and when the topic turns political, TTAC often finds itself on the front lines of America’s cultural and ideological battlefield. Luckily we’re all of us bound together by something that transcends much of what divides us: our shared fascination with cars gives us the opportunity to interact with and relate to people with whom we may have little else in common.

Take this photo: depending on your perspective, this scene, photographed near my home in Portland, OR, might be a symbol of the ultimate automotive aspiration or a dread vision of a dystopian anti-automotive future. But regardless of how the image relates to your personal views and circumstances, nobody can deny that the people who live in that house think very seriously about their automobiles. And even the most unabashed, gas-huffing EV skeptic has to respect that. Vive le difference!

As a product of the Golden State, there’s a lot that I appreciate about California: the weather, the immigrant diversity, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the fact that people drive fast just to name a few examples. But, having lived for years among fellow California refugees here in Oregon, there’s a lot of things I don’t look forward to when I find myself headed South, and chief among these is the traffic. But there’s traffic and then there’s traffic, and Southern California is currently gearing up for what promises to be the worst weekend of traffic in memory. A crucial portion LA’s infamous 405 freeway is shutting down for repairs on Friday and it will be closed all weekend. To someone who has never been to, or driven in Los Angeles, the reconstruction of a major intra-urban bridge and the addition of a new commuter lane in a single weekend might seem like impressively brisk work and cause for huzzahs. But in Los Angeles, where they don’t know Detroit claimed the tagline years ago, locals are hunkering down for “Carmageddon”… and their reactions form a fascinating comment on our national ambivalence towards driving.

If you don’t live in the LA area, this may be the first you’re hearing about this… but La-La land is transfixed. The LA Times gushes

In case you recently left a cult, returned from the moon or have just been blissfully ignoring Los Angeles news, consider the following a public service especially for you.  The southern half of the Mulholland Drive Bridge is about to be destroyed.

Right down to the choice of possible excuses for missing important LA news, the Times captures the spirit of the most fad-driven city in the world. As the LA Weekly puts it

Only in Los Angeles (hate that saying, but it’s true) would an empty freeway be considered a major sightseeing attraction. But on Day 4 of the countdown to Carmageddon, it’s just the kind of apocalyptic municipal madness we crave:

Madness you say? But what madness could the closure of 10 miles of freeway inspire in the level-headed citizens of Los Angeles? Where to start? 70 digital billboards are being turned over to warnings about the closure, the space donated by media giant Clear Channel. Not bizarre enough for you? How about the $400 helicopter tours (champagne included), or the $4 Jet Blue flights from Long Beach to Burbank (Saturday only)? Still too humdrum and everyday? How about the sinister threats of street action by the Midnight Ridazz bicycle club, which seems to want to “bomb” the 405 over the weekend? Metro officials are warning

… I recognize that there’s going to be a lot of interest in bicyclers and skateboarders … But … we are going to be working very closely with our friends at the California Highway Patrol … Keep ‘em well away unless your looking for a free ride home in the back of a police cruiser.

And public leaders seem to be getting in on the frenzy with as much gusto as the Ridazz:

“‘Carmageddon’ is not a phrase that I invented, but it’s certainly one I’ve exploited,” said County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky, whose district includes the closure area. The supervisor dedicated a page on his website to the closure, complete with a countdown ticker created by Metro.

And with the ball in their court, elected leaders are turning to the people Los Angeleans always turn to in times of trouble: Celebrities. With, it must be added, predictable results:

The LAPD contacted hundreds of celebrities, many who have already begun tweeting news of the closure to give their followers a “heads-up” on the upcoming traffic nightmare…

Access to 30 million followers with celebrity Twitter does have a downside, though. One of the Kardashians promptly complied with the LAPD’s request, but got the information wrong — twice.

Newly engaged sister Kim Kardashian jumped the gun, advising her 8 million followers of the wrong weekend. When notified of her mistake, she referred to the weekend before the planned closure, getting it wrong yet again. Kardashian proved the third time is indeed a charm, and her persistence in the getting the word out was appreciated by officials.

But what do the real Angelenos, the Joe Eightballs think of all the madness? Just another day, says writer/producer Rob Long in an LAT guest Op-Ed

Chaos on the 405 is anytime between 7 in the morning and 9 at night. Chaos on the 405 is weekday afternoons, summer evenings, rainy days and anytime a gallon of gas is slightly less than $4. Chaos on the 405 is a Type A guy in a BMW pounding furiously on his steering wheel as the traffic snakes slowly over the hill, a gigantic truck rumbling to his left and a Latino gardener in a rattling pickup truck on his right, with another guy in the back who stares at the raging BMW driver with expressionless eyes and an imperceptible smile.

Chaos, in other words, is situation normal for Los Angeles freeway traffic…

The freeways — all of them, not just the 405 — are a lie that we tell ourselves every day: Twenty minutes door to door; it’s just over the hill. Every day we approach the onramp with high expectations and hearts full of hope, and every day the 405 betrays us with unexplained delays and an unpredictable rush hour. Now, finally, we’ll know the truth: Freeways lie. Only surface streets tell the truth.

It may make a bigger impact on the one thing that unites all Angelenos than anything else in recent history, but at the end of the day “Carmageddon” is just another spectacle in a city that runs on spectacle. And, as usual, the sideshow helps cover up the painful truth: driving anywhere at almost any time in LA sucks. At least this way everyone can tell themselves it will all be better on Monday.

If there’s one potent symbol of the less-than-entirely-glamorous aspect of automobiles, it’s traffic. Our insistence on private transportation, though ultimately liberating, disconnects us from our fellow citizens, and pits us against each other as we madly pursue our individual lives. And once we’re in traffic, nothing, nothing can break us out of the every-man-for-himself dynamic that actually keeps traffic moving. Well, unless you happen to live in Israel.

Monday was the Israeli holiday of Yom Hashoah, a day of remembrance for those who died in the Holocaust, and to mark the occasion the entire nation halted its business at noon for a moment of reflection and prayer. At that moment, Israel roads ceased to be a battleground and became a place of community. The people who share each others traffic every day stopped everything and joined their fellow motorists in profound moment of unity. For such a relatively simple gesture, this video [via Hooniverse] proves that the sight of traffic coming to a halt creates an incredibly powerful message. Just try to watch without getting a few goosebumps.

Yes, and yes, says a study of the Resources for the Future (RFF) institute. The Washington think tank’s study examined “the unexplored link between the prevalence of overweight and obesity and vehicle demand” for bigger and more gas guzzling cars.

RFF brands itself as a “nonpartisan organization that conducts independent research.” Their study found “that the prevalence of overweight and obesity has a sizable effect on the fuel economy of new vehicles demanded. A 10 percentage point increase in the rate of overweight and obesity among the population reduces the average miles per gallon (MPG) of new vehicles demanded by 2.5 percent, an effect that requires a 30 cent increase in gasoline prices to counteract.” Basically what they are saying: Fat people choose fat cars. More fat people, more fat cars.

Shame on you if your belly keeps you from reading the numbers on the bathroom scale, you are driving up the cost of our gas, fatso. If you would eat less, we would pay less. If the study is correct.

The study is a bit dated (August 2009), and with names such as Shanjun Li, Yanyan Liu, and Junjie Zhang, the authors of the study may be a bit biased. Alternating between China and Japan, most foreigners (myself included) appear fat to me, or debu-debu as they say in Japan. I stumbled across this study because of the serendipity of two stories that appeared this weekend.

The top story of Automotive News [sub] is “Ford leads the way as automakers embrace weight-loss.” In their cars, not amongst their customers.  “Weight is absolutely critical,” said Ford CEO Alan Mulally for saving gas and in order to reach CAFE rules that require a fleet average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. There already is talk about a 62-mpg target for 2025. Ford’s diet regimen clashes with another trend.

Over at AOL Autos, there is an article titled “Super Size Me? How About My Car?” It muses about the buying habits of the Generation XXL: “Extra-large Americans get up and go to work like anyone else and they need vehicles to get them there and back. Is the auto industry paying attention?” In that story, interviewed carmakers deny that they target obese people per se. Instead, they indeed pay attention to what the customer wants. “We’re finding that people say, ‘We want more space,’” said Sage Marie, Manager of Honda Product Planning.

If people want bigger cars, they get bigger cars. AOL Autos complains that there are “few reliable statistics on which cars are most accommodating for larger people.” As we soon shall see, they did not look hard enough. All AOL found was a list compiled last year by Consumer Reports that recommends “several good cars that are best for larger drivers,” as CR said.

Oddly enough, the cars all hail from the lands of lithe, from Japan and Korea:

This is a list of cars CR thinks hefty people should buy. It’s not a list of what they buy. That led to the study mentioned above. The authors claim that they have irrefutable proof that people who can’t stop eating choose cars with a serious drinking disorder.

The greater the share of fat people, the greater the share of gas guzzling light trucks. Shazamm!

What’s more, RFF tells us (using EPA data) that the fuel economy of all new vehicles (green line) peaked in 1987. It was all downhill from there until a slight pick-up in 2005. It must have been all those non-HWP people buying big rigs.

The study reminds us that “medical cost of overweight and obesity accounted for 9.1 percent of total U.S. medical expenditures in 1998 and reached $78.5 billion, half of which were through financially-distressed Medicare and Medicaid systems.” While people increased in heft, there emerged “a seemingly unrelated but equally significant trend: The dramatic increase in the number of large passenger vehicles on American roads.” Which of course make us dependent on oil from “politically unstable” countries, fill the air with pollution, and give us skin cancer through the ozone hole.

Says the study: “Our simulation results show that had the prevalence of overweight and obesity stayed at the level in 1981 (about 20 percentage points lower than that in 2005), the average MPG of new vehicles demanded in 2005 would have been about 4.6 percent higher, everything else being equal. The improved fuel efficiency implies total gasoline savings of about 138 million barrels and reduction in CO2 emissions of 58 million tons over the lifetime of these vehicles.”

The theory is being put in question by a commentator in a discussion forum. When someone recommended a Ford F-150 or Chevy Silverado as the perfect ride for the circumferentially challenged, the reply was:

“Gotta climb UP into those… “

Purveyors of high gloss paint sealants (and high margin up-sells for car dealers) read with horror the story in today’s Wall Street Journal that matte finish is the “new black” for cars. If this trend catches on – and the WSJ says it does – then the sparkling profits will be a goner.

The WSJ is increasingly seeing “production cars from Audi, Aston Martin, Mercedes-Benz and others with matte paint that harks back to the 1949 Mercuries and ‘32 Ford highboy roadsters that personify the 1950s and 1960s when young hot-rodders on tight budgets often saved the paint for last. Concentrating on making cars fast before making them good-looking, they drove their ‘rods on the street and the dragstrip covered in primer, which at least kept their bodies from rusting.”

But not to worry, our vibrant aftermarket industry is on the ball. 3M has joined other companies in the matte market and offers VentureShield Paint Protection Matte Finish Film 7710. Marketed as a “sensible alternative to bug shields or vehicle bras,” the product offers ”basic performance and durability at an economical price.”

3M will most likely raise the price and change the advertising copy after reading the WSJ. The Journal suggests “it’s a translucent stick-on film that protects the underlying paint and imparts a matte finish.” Better already, but could use a little added, well, sparkle.

What the government giveth, the government taketh away: After the Japanese government discontinued subsidies for “fuel-efficient cars” (well, just about anything that was street legal, including a handful of American gas-guzzlers that received preferential treatment) Japan’s domestic auto sales are forecasted to drop 9.9 percent in 2011 from this year, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association JAMA tells The Nikkei [sub] today. All in all, no big drama.

JAMA thinks that the 9.9 percent drop will follow a 7.5 percent rise this year.

Let’s look at the hard numbers: 4.6 million in 2009, 4.95 million in 2010, 4.46 million in 2011. We call that fashionably flat. Like Europe, Japan will have survived carmageddon with just minor scratches, thanks to some fiscal engineering that was longer lived than the U.S. cash for clunkers chimera.

Emboldened by the successes of Zipcar and other short term rental or car sharing ventures, Daimler is test marketing its Car2go service Austin, TX, and Ulm, Germany. Soon to follow: Hamburg, Germany, in early in 2011, and dozens more cities in Europe and North America. Car2go rents Smart cars by the minute. Other carmakers, such as BMW and PSA want to develop similar services.

What makes Car2go different is that you can pick up the car and leave it anywhere within the city’s operating area. GPS tells the central computer where it is. Car2go members pay a one-time registration fee for an access card to rent a car located wherever the last customer parked.

A Frost & Sullivan study sees a shift in people in their 20s and 30s, who see car ownership as a financial drag with little status upside. Car sharing is attractive to younger drivers who grew up with monthly cell-phone bills and other pay-as-you-go services.  Add to that the lack and cost of parking in crowded city centers, and you’ve got yourself a nice business. Or a huge problem.

If that concept ever goes mainstream, then carmakers are in big trouble. A car-sharing fleet of 150,000 to 200,000 cars could eventually replace about 1 million consumer-owned vehicles, the Frost & Sullivan study figures. Carmakers face the choice of either catching that trend early or getting gobbled up by it if they snooze.

In the beginning of the new millennium, U.S. new auto sales topped 17 million a few times as Americans used the assumed equity in their houses to stuff their three car garages with more cars than there were driver’s licenses in the nation.  In 2000, a total of 17,349,700 new cars changed hands. A year later, 17,121,900 units.  It deteriorated from there. In 2007, 16,089,300 cars were sold.  And we know what happened thereafter.

If we buy and sell 11.5 million new cars this year, it will be called a recovery.  For 2011, J.D.Power sees maybe 12.8 million, if it all works out. They had seen a bit more before, but grew cautious lately.  Now, a prophet appeared that predicts the miracle everybody prays for, a return to former (albeit fleeting) glory:

Michael Robinet, director of global production forecasts for IHS Automotive, said that U.S. new car sales could top 17 million by 2015. “That would be a huge reversal from the historically low sales levels that brought the industry to its knees during the recent recession,” even Detroit’s hometown paper, the Freep, has to concede.

At a presentation made in front of the rapt audience of the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, Robinet counted down the usual number of reasons: Pent-up demand, a growing U.S. population and aging baby boomers with discretionary income.

Robinet agrees with J.D Power and expects sales of 12.8 million or more next year. Then his charts jump to 16 million in 2013 before reaching 17 million in 2015. Of course, he keeps a little hedge. High gas prices over an extended period of time could suppress vehicle sales, Robinet revealed. Who would have thought.

There is just one fly in the ointment. Prophecies by IHS don’t have a stellar track record. Remember a year ago, when a respected research company had announced in November 2009 that Volkswagen had overtaken Toyota in worldwide sales and would end 2009 as the world’s largest automaker? The announcement had emanated from IHS. It made headlines the world over. It was total bunk.

Toyota ended that year as #1, GM was #2, and Volkswagen #3. IHS had made a total mess of the numbers, had forgotten to count Daihatsu, Hino, Audi and sundry others, prematurely put Porsche into VW’s 2009 numbers, and overlooked one simple fact. According to their (wrong) calculations, Volkswagen had sold more than 4.4 million cars by November 2009, “beating Toyota by more than 400,000 vehicles.” It didn’t dawn on them that you can’t possibly be the world’s largest if you had only sold 4.4 million by November. Toyota sold 7.2 million that year, GM 6.5 million, and Volkswagen 6 million.

As much as we wish the glory days to return: Beware of false prophets.

America’s Baby Boom generation turns 65 next year, which means it’s only a matter of time before America’s roads are clogged with self-satisfied drivers in total denial about their rapidly deteriorating vision, reaction time and decision making abilities (Gosh, is there anything as satisfying as generational bashing?).  Everyone knows that old drivers are bad drivers, but they’re also more likely to be injured due to their physical frailty. Drivers over 70 are three times as likely as those aged 35-54 to sustain a fatal injury in a crash, and the National Transportation Safety Board is worried enough about the prospect of an aging demographic bulge to hold a conference on the topic in DC. According to the DetN, conversation there centers on a number of potential measures for curbing the impacts of aging drivers, including “Michigan lefts,” which move left-hand turns out of major intersections, traffic circles, and improved safety equipment like inflatable seatbelts. But the real elephant in the room is restrictions on licensing, including mandatory eye testing, restrictions on license renewal by mail, shorter renewal periods, and even additional testing for drivers over a certain age.

Needless to say, Americans tend to think of driving as a right rather than a privilege, but if states restrict license rights for new drivers, there’s no question that senior drivers should face some kind of oversight. Especially in the context of tragedies like the Santa Monica Farmers Market incident. But how much? And what kind? And at what age?

Via Hemmings News comes this delightful find from Chevymall.com: an officially licensed poster comparing women to cupholders. So, did Susan Docherty sign off on that when she was GM’s marketing boss, or is this just more evidence that GM really is a “testosterone saturated, white, American male culture”? Either way, it cements the impression that Chevrolet’s values and image stopped making progress around the same time its market share did… which, incidentally, was about the same time the poodle skirt went out of fashion.

It’s just too bad that, between the ’59 Impala, the poodle skirt, GM’s US market dominance and casual sexism, only the casual sexism seems to have survived.

China is currently in a state of confusion about August sales numbers: More than 50 percent up? Or less than 20 percent? It will take a week or so to sort that out. But one thing is clear: The big winners in China are German purveyors of luxobarges, says Reuters.

• Audi’s sales jumped by two-thirds to 22,350 units, bringing the total for the past eight months to nearly 152,800, a year-to-date gain of 63 percent. China is now officially Audi’s largest market. In Germany, Audi sold 144,365 units through August. And that was a performance much better than most of the other brands.
• Daimler’s sales in China more than doubled in August to 13,400. Year-to-date, they sold 88,500, up 129 percent.

BMW numbers are not out yet, but they should be similarly nice. German car exports continue to rise, buoyed by the soft Euro. German automakers exported 252,200 cars last month, a 12 percent increase compared with August 2009, reports AP. Germans bought 235,640 cars at home in August. More than half of Germany’s auto production is being shipped abroad. An ever increasing number goes to China. Not the cheap ones. They produce those at home.

The de-Ramification of the Dodge brand took another important step today, as Dodge previewed its new Ram-free logo. Similarly, the new 2011 Durango (on which the updated logo appears) has also had the Ram taken out of its Rama-lama-dingdong… er, technical underpinnings. Once a big BOF bruiser, the Durango has had a unibody makeover along the lines of Ford’s Explorer, making 2010 the year of the Cross-retro-ver. But will the old SUV brands remain relevant after becoming poster boys for automotive and cultural excess back when gas prices spiked? More importantly, does anyone actually like the new Dodge badge?

Some car manufacturers have quietly equipped cars with RFID chips. I’m not at liberty to disclose their identity, but I can tell you that they know your name as you pull up in front of the dealership’s shop. Car keys with RFID are also becoming en vogue. That’s how the keyless system can open the car for you as you walk up to it. Now, Ford Europe officially embeds RFID chips in their cars.

2000 RFID-equipped Fiesta and Fusion cars leave Ford Cologne per day. The data are used for a benign purpose: To optimize the delivery process. According to Automobilwoche [sub], RFID-equipped cars are delivered 15 percent faster. Erroneous shipments have been practically eliminated. Ford will introduce this system in all of its European plants, and therefore in all of its European cars. “Other uses” of the chip are being researched. With an RFID chip in every car, complicated cameras will no longer be needed. Your number will show up using an inconspicuous reader.

When I was a young and budding Creative Director on the Volkswagen account (some time in the wild 70s,) I was told that there is only space for 10 automakers on this planet. In 2008, Marchinonne said there is room for 6. Now, the odds are there is Lebensraum for 3 to 5 automakers, depending on who you ask.

The prophets don’t seem to look around when they say that. The annual OICA list of the world’s largest automakers has 50 positions. In China alone are anywhere between 60 and 120 automakers, nobody seems to have a definitive number. Since I was a young and budding Creative Director on Volkswagen 30 years ago, the number of carmarkers worldwide has risen dramatically. It looks like the minute a country turns from a “developing country” into an “emerging country” (whatever that may be,) they want at least one of their own automakers. Even Iran has a couple of sizable automakers, they aren’t on the OICA list, and it’s not for a lack of units made.

If it would be true that one needs annual output in excess of 5m cars to survive, then our choices would be limited to Toyota, GM, and Volkswagen. Reality looks different.

The motorized mass mortality doesn’t seem to happen, and it won’t happen anytime soon.

If there was a global event that could have triggered mass extinction of the dinosaurs, then it was the carmageddon of 2008. Without government intervention, it would have broken the neck of several automakers. Curiously, it wasn’t the necks the prophets had in mind. It was the biggest ones that nearly died, would they not have been rescued by the generous donations of people like you and me.

Sometimes, it’s good to take a long-term look. Over the weekend, I lined up the OICA production numbers from 2003 to 2009, and plotted them over time. For the top ten only, all fifty would have been too confusing. I took strictly the official OICA numbers. If you have issues with them (and there is reason in several cases,) the issues must be taken up with OICA. They are production numbers only, the metric the industry goes by. If  some want worldwide transaction price rankings: I don’t have them.

What does the big picture tell us?

Toyota and GM, the two giants, suffered similarly, and a lot. GM started hemorrhaging a bit earlier and fell a bit deeper, but overall, GM fared not much differently than Toyota. If GM would have been better managed and would have built reserves instead of living from paycheck to paycheck, they could be in the same situation as Toyota, without any government help.

Ford was mauled badly. It is amazing that they survived without a bankruptcy and a GM-sized bailout.

Volkswagen, through sheer luck, was in the right place (China) at the right time, and was a nobody in the wrong place (U.S.A.) at the wrong time. Hence, Volkswagen survived carmageddon relatively unscathed. If they wouldn’t have been sidetracked by their own in-house version of the carpocalypse, the Porsche-Piech-Wiedeking-coup-and-counter-coup, they probably would look even better today.

The big winner is Hyundai. While nobody was watching and everybody was self-absorbed, dark horse Hyundai came from behind and showed that even if the sky is falling, there is room to rise.

The others are biding their time. No major battle damage (except for Honda.) They are all pretty much treading water.

Looking ahead, the decisive battle for world domination in terms of sheer production numbers is fought in China. It’s the world’s largest auto market and growing like gangbusters. By the end of the year, the Chinese will most likely have bought more than 16m cars, compared to projected sales “in the low 11m” in the U.S.A. GM is strong in China. Toyota is weak in China. Vokswagen is strong in China. Ford is weak in China.

Assuming continuous moral and political support at the home front, provided by GM’s main shareholders, GM will most likely re-take the #1 position in global output this year. The mid-term trend points strongly in that direction. However, this will be a hollow victory. Most of the volume in China comes from cheap little delivery vans built by a company called Wuling, a joint venture in which GM has only a 38 percent share. GM gave up the majority of their joint venture with SAIC for the express purpose that SAIC can reflect the whole profit on their books. How this will play out financially remains to be seen.

The big winners in China and elsewhere will be Volkswagen and Hyundai. Re-check the mid-term trend for details. Both Volkswagen and Hyundai are well positioned in China. Volkswagen much more so than Hyundai. Volkswagen profits immensely from a low Euro, and from increased exports. Ford is not a serious player in China. Therefore, I see Hyundai overtake Ford worldwide by year-end. The appreciating value of the Japanese Yen will cause Toyota additional pain when the books are closed. The low Euro and the teetering European market will hurt Ford. Ford has big exposure in Europe.

By the end of the year, the production ranking will most likely be #1 GM, #2 Toyota, #3 Volkswagen, #4 Hyundai, #5 Ford. In terms of profits, it most likely will be a tight race between Toyota and Volkswagen.

PS: Speaking of China, I will be touring the most scenic sites of China (factories in godforsaken places) all of this week with some hardy European customers. You will see very little of yours truly. Don’t worry (or don’t get your hopes up), BS shall return.

Japan’s Internal Affairs Ministry has bad news for Japan’s automakers: Japanese citizens are dumping their cars and take the train. Domestic car ownership has declined for the first time since 1964, with declines particularly pronounced in big cities, report The Nikkei [sub]: “Less-status-conscious city residents are abandoning cars for public transit.”

The ministry surveys the number of cars owned per household every five years. The latest study counted 1,414 cars per 1,000 households, declining 2.2 percent from the previous 2004 poll. This marked the first fall since 1964, when the first study was conducted.

2.2 percent less is not mass abandonment. But it’s a turn. The Nikkei has a darker view: “The latest trend bodes ill for the domestic auto market and hints at a shifting sociocultural landscape, where once-common practices, such as buying a larger vehicle after starting a family or upgrading to a higher-end model after a job promotion, are no longer considered important.”

Here are the more interesting numbers: Car ownership tumbled 6.4 percent among the under-30 population and slid 6.6 percent among individuals in their 40s. Younger generations nervous about their economic futures are shying away from auto purchases, while the middle-aged are parting with their vehicles amid a deteriorating income environment.

And they are indeed switching the cars for the train: The drop in vehicles owned per household was the sharpest in Kanagawa Prefecture at 7.7 percent, followed by Chiba Prefecture’s 7.5 percent, Saitama Prefecture’s 7.2 percent and then Tokyo’s 6.9 percent. These prefectures are all part of the greater Tokyo area, bedroom cities connected by a vast and efficient public transportation system with the city core. Tokyo has one of the, if not the, most comprehensive subway systems in the world. You don’t need a car there. Most of the times, it’s a burden.  We have an apartment in Tokyo, no car. My wife owns a building lot. She makes a lot of money by renting it out as parking space.

For the few times you want a car, ther are alternatives. Domestic car-sharing sites more than doubled from a year earlier to 861 locations. Membership surged 150 percent.

Carmakers are getting desperate to attract the few young buyers that some are even holding events at elementary schools in Tokyo to drum up interest in cars among blase children. Toyota sends mechanics to schools to explain and show how cars work.

Car & Driver’s endearingly awkward Editor-in-Chief Eddie Alterman took to the interwebs today, with a “viral-style” video imploring enthusiasts to “save the manuals.” And though Alterman can’t help but sell the faux-sincerity, the message is brain-hurtingly mangled by his attempt to be the Old Spice Guy of the car world.

Yes, manual transmissions are a dying breed, and yes, they’re fun and prevent distracted driving, but how in the bang box is buying an old BMW the solution? Wouldn’t buying a brand-new car with a manual transmission be the best way to voice your opinion to the product planners? The problem is that Alterman isn’t as interested in saving the manual as he is in saving his magazine… and it should come as no surprise to find out that three tools of Alterman’s Manual Front include commenting at C&D, emailing C&D, and “liking” C&D’s Save The Manuals Facebook page. Oh yeah, and writing your congressional representative (“Will it make a difference? Uh, maybe?”).

Last but (hopefully) not least, Alterman suggests teaching someone to drive a manual transmission. One might have hoped that this, and not funneling traffic to the C&D website, would have been the focus of Alterman’s mock-crusade. Instead, the slow-motion tragedy of manual transmission disappearance is being quasi-ironically exploited to boost readership at a flagging buff book, further marginalizing the manual into its enthusiast ghetto.

Meanwhile, there’s an another, equally tongue-in-cheek way to do this: seriously proposing legislation that makes manual transmissions mandatory for all new cars sold in the United States… under the rubric of safety, of course. After all, politics isn’t about asking people nicely to save junkyard clunkers and “like” you on Facebook, it’s about forcing the other guy to argue against something undeniably good… like safety. Do you like what distracted driving does, Senator? Are you in favor of unintended acceleration? Do you now, or have you ever owned an automatic transmission-equipped vehicle?

The problem is that, like most MT enthusiasts, our motivation to save the manuals is ultimately about fun. Unfortunately, times have changed, and far more people now seem to associate cars with commuter tedium than fun. Meanwhile, transmission and drivetrain technology are making manuals less and less necessary (witness the fact that most automatics get better mileage and/or acceleration than their manual counterparts). You think Ferrari is about to break down and re-embrace the manny-tranny just because Alterman makes puppy dog eyes in the direction of Maranello?

It’s a sad truth that people who drive for fun, buff books like C&D, and manual transmissions are all becoming increasingly marginal phenomena in the iPhone era. Of the three, I’ll miss stick shifts the most.

Drivers tooling around East College Avenue that runs past the Penn State campus showed symptoms of distracted driving after an encounter with an electronic road sign. It flashed the common “Stay Safe PA,” followed by a highly uncommon “Check for Smegma.”

To those not in the know, Centre Daily provided the needed trivia:“Smegma is a term for genital secretions.”

Cory Miller, executive director of the University Area Joint Authority was quick to explain that smegma “also has a meaning for highway conditions, when it first starts raining, there is that oil sheen on the surface of the road. That is a term used.”

Nevertheless, on being notified of the ambiguous warning, UAJA was trying all day to have the sign changed, but were frustrated in their efforts.

“We’re not able to get to the sign,” said University spokeswoman Marla Fanin at 5pm. The sign was enclosed on a construction site, behind a chain link fence.

Despite a sunny and precipitation-free day, drivers were all day warned of slick road conditions.

Local law enforcement could get involved if it is determined that the matter smells of foul play.

A lot has changed since 1978… and not all of it for the better. One undeniable trend: young folks just aren’t that into the cars anymore. Automotive News [sub] takes on this, the greatest challenge facing automotive marketers in a lengthy piece that asks

Is digital revolution driving decline in U.S. car culture?

The implicit answer: yes. As a member of the generation that will doubtless be blamed for the decline of the auto industry for decades to come, I think the root causes of Millennial carlessness are a bit more complicated than mere progress in digital technology. And though the causes may be complex, the reality couldn’t be more clear. Want to know how this dynamic plays out? Take a look at Japan. If the car industry doesn’t find a way to re-associate its products with more positive connotations than debt, traffic, commuting and pollution, it’s going to face an increasingly tough slog as the Millennial generation comes into its own.

At this risk of stating the supremely obvious, we’re not enjoying a lighter-than-usual workload today in order to remember cars. The sacrifices of America’s warriors are the reason for remembrance today, as we reflect on the wrenching experiences that allow our flawed-but-wonderful experiment in democracy and capitalism to persist. But memory is a funny thing. Once you start looking back at through the jumbled scrapbook of past experience, unexpected artifacts come looming out of the fog.

My earliest memories of America at war, during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, remain strong: the yellow ribbons sprouting up like weeds, the menacing strangeness of terms like “Scud Missile,” the wail of Israeli air raid sirens broadcast into my family’s bastion of suburban privilege. Still a young child at the time, these memories mark a growing awareness of the world around me, and yet the memories that feature most prominently in my mind from that period are the comfortingly familiar ones. The smell of pine trees baking in the hot sun at summer camp. The taste of blackberries. The creak of swing axles, and the bucolic brumm of a straight six as the old yellow Ford pickup made its sedate progress towards the dump. Straddling the Hurst shifter and leaning into the curves, goading Dad to make the poor thing backfire while my sister and I screamed in delight.

To this day, nothing in this world reminds me of that or any other period of my life the way sitting in “Old Yellow” does, inhaling the smells of gas and manure, and absorbing every squeak and grumble. It’s a rolling memory machine, a warp-speed express to a world where war was a foreign presence, an atavism of history intruding on our perfect future. Somewhere in everyone’s past there’s a time and place that we can remember only in innocence. If we’re truly lucky, there’s still a vehicle that can take us there. What’s yours?

With a total production of 2,576,628 passenger cars in 2009, Brazil took the #5 rank, leaving the US (which produced 2,249,061) in the #6 slot. America’s weak number can be blamed on the crisis, its dependence on truck and SUV sales, and the fact that a lot of the “American” cars are made in Mexico or Canada. Most of all, the crummy showing can be blamed on the fact that these are production statistics. A country that imports a lot looks bad on that list. Countries like Japan, Germany, or South Korea, which had an anemic home market, but export a lot, look better on the list than back home. Trucks, SUVs and minivans count in most countries as “commercial” vehicles. The U.S.A. had to invent the “light vehicle” category to avoid looking like a third world country.

According to Anfavea (the Brazilian car makers association) this production number, though record, is just the beginning. Brazil already is the world’s 4^th largest consumer of cars. There are a lot of people in Brazil without cars. There is a lot of room to grow.

Some numbers for your perusing pleasure. (All as per OICA – International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers – they can be sorted by clicking the column header.)

Total production of passenger cars in 2009

Total production of “commercial” vehicles in 2009:

Combined production number of motor vehicles in 2009: