Regulators are hoping to offer additional incentives and credits to spur sales of the vehicles. Hydrogen re-fueling infrastructure will also be supported, though details of how this would be approached were scant. The new rules would also favor vehicles such as the Chevrolet Volt, as CARB feels that it is closer to an electric vehicle than a conventional plug-in hybrid. The Volt has been dubbed a ”transitional zero-emission vehicle”.

Organizations such as the California New Car Dealers Association say that demand for these types of vehicles has been overestimated, but CARB chair Mary Nichols told a conference call that car manufacturers were in favor of the new rulings. “Probably the most heartening aspect of this whole rulemaking was the level of cooperation that we received from the industry. Overall, the degree of support for the package was just extraordinary.”

The  car industry has high hopes for the young. Automakers have invested and are investing billions into hybrid and electric vehicle, so far with lackluster success. In the U.S., the take rate of hybrid cars is actually coming down from a 2.78 percent peaklet in 2009. The 0.14 percent market share of EVs is too small to move the plotter’s needle. To recoup the investment, new tech vehicles have to be sold in more meaningful numbers. It is the generation Y that is supposed to set the needle in motion. A study of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu promises that Generation Y will make a humongous difference.

Generation Y could be the “generation that leads us away from traditional gasoline-powered vehicles,” Craig Giffi, who is in charge of  Deloitte’s  annual survey of Gen Y auto consumers, told the L.A. Times. The paper summarizes:

“According to the Deloitte survey, 59% of Gen Y respondents said they preferred an “electrified vehicle” over any other type of car or truck. They generally defined “electrified” as a hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle. Just 2% said they wanted a pure battery electric vehicle, which reflects the very small number of such cars that people are purchasing.  Just 37% of the respondents preferred vehicles with the traditional gasoline-only powertrain.”

Giffi loves the Y generation, so much that he recklessly collides with TTAC’s jargon vigilantes: The enthusiasm for hybrid vehicles turns Gen Y consumers in the U.S. into “game changers,” Giffi said.  And he continued:

“At nearly 80 million strong, they are one of the biggest automobile buying market segments and the largest consumer segment since the baby boomers.“

Sure, once they have a job and make money.

Let’s hope Generation Y sticks more to its principles than previous generations. I have seen study after study where customers announced their environmentally responsible intentions, only to reneg on their promise once they were in the showroom.

At the Tokyo Motor Show, the announcement that Toyota and BMW are in cahoots over batteries, diesel engines and possibly more was the talk of the show. Back in Bavaria, BMW displays a promiscuous bent. BMW will cooperate with GM, yes GM, on fuel cells. This at least if the German magazine Wirtschaftswoche is correctly informed.

Sources told Wirtschaftswoche that a cooperation between BMW and GM is as good as done. A MOU will be signed with great fanfare at the Detroit motor show in January, says the magazine.

BMW has no comment, but confirms that there are negotiations with GM. BMW is not known for its fuel cell prowess. According to the information of Wirtschaftswoche, highly profitable BMW will share the cost of fuel cell development with GM, and will be supplied with hydrogen-powered fuel cells by GM.

The on-again, off-again hydrogen fuel cell is definitely on again.  In our interview a month ago, Toyota’s chief for new technologies, Satoshi Ogiso, confirmed that the technology is ready for prime time, the only remaining problem is cost. Toyota will launch a mass produced fuel cell car in 2015. Ogiso promised it will be affordable by 2020. GM is looking back at a long history of fuel cell development and will also sell a hydrogen-powered car by 2015. So will Hyundai. Nissan (cooperating with hydrogen-pioneer Daimler)  likewise signaled that it will not place a single bet on EVs, and that fuel cell cars are in the cards.  BMW once had planned to launch an ICE that runs on hydrogen (see above), but that idea, well, bombed.

Think hybrid and electric cars are expensive? Wait until automakers start selling hydrogen fuel cell cars. Toyota tells Automotive News [sub] that it’s targeting global sales of a “few thousand” fuel cell vehicles by 2015. But because the technology will be rolled out due to emissions standards rather than widespread market demand, expect the price for the hydrogen Toyotas to be breathtakingly high. Says Toyota Europe’s Vice President for Product Planning & Marketing Alain Uyttenhoven

We could expect a fuel cell vehicle to retail at about 100,000 euros in Europe.

Phew! All of a sudden those EVs aren’t looking so overpriced, are they? Which might be why Uyttenhoven adds

We see pure battery-powered vehicles to be just a solution for small trips in the city, while a plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid is the best solution both for weekday urban commuting and weekend trips. Our research shows that more than 80 percent of urban daily trips are less than the 20km.

In an extended interview with Fareed Zakaria this weekend, GM CEO Dan Akerson repudiated a lot of GM’s previous optimism about hydrogen fuel cell cars, saying

We’re looking at hydrogen fuel cells, which have no carbon emissions, zero. They’re very expensive now, but we’ve, just in the last two years, reduced the price of that technology by $100,000. The car is still too expensive and probably won’t be practical until the 2020-plus period, I don’t know. And then there’s the issue of infrastructure

The DetN points out that GM had previously said that it would have anywhere from 1,000 to “hundreds of thousands” of fuel cell cars on the road by 2010, and most recently said (in 2009) that the technology would be “commercialized” by 2015 and “cost-competitive” by 2020. So, if hydrogen is moving to the back burner, what’s moving up? Akerson revealed that

soon we’ll be introducing “bi-fuel” engines which can burn both compressed natural gas and liquid gasoline.

We’ve seen GM take early steps towards bringing a natural gas-powered car to the road, but this is the first sign from a top executive that a dual-fuel car is a certainty in GM’s near future. By talking down hugely expensive hydrogen cars and talking up cheap natural gas powerplants, Akerson sends a strong message that GM’s green car efforts are moving in a more pragmatic direction. Hit the jump for part two of the interview, in which Akerson talks gas tax and green cars.

With Opel planning to pull itself into the black within the year, the brand’s thoughts are turning from survival to “luxuries” like a flagship model planned for around 20k units starting in the 2016-2017 timeframe. Codenamed “TOL” for “Top Of Line,” the sedan will be designed to highlight one of GM’s many alt-drivetrain technologies, but according to Automotive News [sub], nobody yet seems sure which. Opel labor rep and recent champion of the brand’s forthcoming products Klaus Franz explains:

Already with the our Ampera electric vehicle, we have shown what we are able to do and enjoy an advantage of two to three years compared to the competition

But with the TOL is planned for 2016, Opel may have to dig deep to jump out ahead of the market, which is why a fuel cell-powered electric drivetrain is being considered (also, after decades of FCV research, GM has to build a production model someday). And if the eventual product has a truly ahead-of-its-time drivetrain, and looks as good as last year’s Flextreme Concept (above), this flagship could be an exclamation point on Opel’s turnaround. Unfortunately, neither of these things are a given…

Let’s start with the looks: according to AN [sub]:

In May, Opel CEO Karl-Friedrich Stracke said the company was mulling a new flagship model that would improve the brand’s image. He told a Germany’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that the car would be a crossover between SUV and station wagon, with an attractive design, high functionality and premium features.

Which means the flagship could come out looking like the 2007 Flextreme concept instead of the low, sleek, coupe-ish looks of the 2010 Flextreme.  Don’t the Opel boys remember what happened to Renault when it tried to build flagships in the shape of vans and station wagons? The Avantime and Vel Satis were wild and funky looking cars, but even the French understand that the luxury market is wildly conservative.

And speaking of wildly conservative, Franz’s comment that the TOL’s drivetrain would be “years” ahead of the competition should probably be taken with a grain of salt, especially in light of another comment he made:

The workers representatives will support this project to the fullest. A flagship like this can only be built on the Epsilon 2 architecture with long wheelbase. We will do everything to build this car at our headquarters in Ruesselsheim, rather than Mexico or elsewhere

An alt-drivetrain “flagship” based on a stretched version of the Epsilon II platform? Where have I heard of that before? Oh right, Cadillac’s XTS “phantom flagship,” a stretched Epsi-II sedan with a plug-in hybrid V6 drivetrain (at least eventually). But the XTS is going to market next year as a 2013 model… and if the Opel were just a re-skin of the Cadillac, there would be no reason to wait until 2016. Not only would an XTS derivative not be “years ahead of the competition” if it launched in 2016, it would be three years behind Cadillac, which (like Chevy) GM is pushing in Europe.

So, will the TOL end up an XTS rebadge or will the three extra years go into developing a legitimately unique drivetrain, possibly a fuel-cell job? It’s too early to tell yet, but one thing is certain: either way, Opel’s stretched Epsilon-II “flagship” won’t come to the US as a Buick for fear of cannibalizing the XTS. Which will just go to show that the XTS should have been born a Buick in the first place.

The ominous Hydrogen Year 2015 is popping up again.  Last year, Byung Ki Ahn, general manager of Hyundai-Kia’s Fuel Cell Group said: “There are already agreements between car makers such as ourselves and legislators in Europe, North America and Japan to build up to the mass production of fuel cell cars by 2015.” Going  through the many files produced in Brussels, you find that in Europe “car manufacturers are getting ready for the commercial production of hydrogen vehicles by 2015.”

Now Daimler will begin series production of hydrogen fuel cell cars in 2014. This is what Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche told Das Autohaus. Together with Linde, a manufacturer of industry gases, Daimler wants to build a small network of hydrogen fuel stations. By 2014, the n umber of hydrogen stations in Germany will rise to 50. Germany alone would need around 1,000 hydrogen stations for a nationwide supply.  And then, motorists will complain that they won’t find any in Italy if they decide to drive to Italy.

A bevy of industry figures and politicos congregated yesterday in Torrance, CA, to celebrate the grand opening of a new gas station. But it wasn’t just any new gas station …

As a collaborative effort between Toyota, Air Products, Shell, South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) and the Department of Energy (DOE), the first hydrogen fueling station in the U.S. that is fed directly from an active industrial hydrogen pipeline was opened.

Don’t drive down yet to fill up your hydrogen car (which you are unlikely to have): The station will provide hydrogen for Toyota fuel cell hybrid demonstration program vehicles as well as other manufacturers’ fuel cell vehicle fleets in the Los Angeles area.

The word “hydrogen” triggers associations of “bomb” in some people. Toyota puts that to rest by placing the hydrogen gas station right next to their U.S. HQ in Torrance. Toyota leases the land “for a nominal fee” to Shell, which owns and operates the station. The gas is supplied by Air Products via a pipeline from its plants in Wilmington and Carson, CA. There is some tax payer’s money involved: “SCAQMD and DOE provided project funding assistance,” says Toyota’s press release.

At the inauguration of the gas station, Chris Hostetter, group vice president of product and strategic planning at Toyota U.S. said: “Toyota plans to bring a fuel cell vehicle to market in 2015, or sooner, and we will not be alone in the marketplace.” Let’s see …

Last year, we had picked up signs of a revival  of  the hydrogen fuel cell technology. There was a lot of renewed excitement in the industry about the technology, especially on the Asian and European side of the globe. Everybody seemed to be gearing up to make 2015 the year of hydrogen. Daimler sent a fleet of hydrogen-powered cars around the world.

They are still at it. Forgotten by the fickle media, the hydrogen-powered Benzes are making their long way back from China to Europe, live-blogged by an intrepid reporter of Auto, Motor und Sport who just posted issue #52. Judging from the comments, only a few bother to read.

A few months ago, the hydrogen euphoria seemed to suddenly run out of fuel – around the world. Even the Obama administration cut $70 million from hydrogen funding. That’s not what killed the mood, carmakers in Europe, Korea or Japan never harbored great hopes to get a lot out of U.S. coffers. From repeated talks with insiders at major automakers, I am given the impression that there is not big breakthrough with the hurdles that stand in the way of wholesale hydrogenification of the universe. As there are the problems of polar bear-friendly hydrogen production, efficient distribution and escape-proof storage, only to name a few.

A spokesman of a usually straightforward German automaker said: “If we have a breakthrough in any of these areas, we’ll call you.”  I’m not sitting by the phone.

At the same time, as hydrogen-disillusion sank in (for the umpteenth time), interest in EVs started to rise, even at the formerly most electricity-insulated companies.

The EPA’s National Clean Diesel Campaign and the Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Energy Program have both been defunded in President Obama’s proposed 2012 budget, as the White House focuses on the much-debated goal of putting one million electric cars on the road by 2015. Bloomberg reports The NCDC budget was cut from $80m in 2010 to zero, even though Obama only just reauthorized $100m per year of grants through the program ten days ago. According to Senator Tom Carper, one of the  sponsors of that re-authorization, the program

leverages federal dollars so efficiently that for every $1 invested, we get over $13 in health and economic benefits in return

Oh well. Meanwhile, fans of the oil-burners imported by the German brands can relax: the NCDC focused on improving diesel emissions from freight, ports and fleets rather than subsidizing Euro-phile sports sedans. Besides, diesel isn’t the only loser in the rush to push plug-in cars to market: hydrogen is also losing out.

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s hydrogen technology program is another loser in the proposed budget, losing some $70m in funding according to DOE’s budget briefing. It’s not clear yet what portions of that program will be affected, but it represents a huge shift away from the Bush-era proposal for over a billion dollars in hydrogen fuel cell research.

Needless to say, the pro-clean diesel and pro-hydrogen lobbies are livid over these cuts. The hydrogen crowd took the big-picture approach, arguing

Even the President acknowledged the need for a portfolio approach in his State of the Union address. Just as American leadership in microprocessor technology led to the greatest economic expansion in the U.S. since post-World War II, fuel cells and hydrogen technologies have the transformative power to drive similar economic growth in the Energy Age.

We look to Congress for leadership to ensure the position of fuel cells and hydrogen in America’s clean energy future

The diesel dudes, meanwhile, take a more common-sense approach, arguing

It’s great to invest in something that’s a moon shot, 15 or 20 years from now, but what are you going to do until then? Modest sums to help modernize and upgrade some of these older engines would be dollars well spent.

But the forces of diesel and hydrogen face an uphill battle, as the Obama budget does include $588m in EV funding, the main feature of which would make $7,500 plug-in car consumer tax credits available as a discount at the point of purchase. This proposal will be hugely popular with GM, Nissan and other firms that are ahead of the game on the plug-in front, and could well squelch any opposition from within the auto industry. But this is also merely the first step in the budget process… twists and turns could well lie ahead.

So, what really happened when two of the three hydrogen fuel-cell cars on Mercedes’s F-Cell World Tour ran out of fuel on an early leg? Previously we’d only heard the German perspective on events (not to mention Daimler’s non-telling of the story in the video above), but now TTAC Alum Jonny Lieberman has posted his extended take on the trip over at Motor Trend. Yes, you’ll have to give MT ten page-clicks to read the whole thing, but Lieberman goes into far more detail than any account of the mini PR fiasco yet published. Do give it a look.

Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (FCVs) are enjoying something of a comeback lately, as everyone from Hyundai and Honda to GM and Daimler are talking about forthcoming production versions of test-fleet FCVs. And with EVs poised to both dominate the short-term green-car game and inevitably disappoint consumers, it’s no surprise that the perennial “fuel of the future” is enjoying a fresh look from automakers. But if high cost and range anxiety are the flies in the EV ointment, the FCV-boosters are finding their hydrogen cars tend to suffer from the same problems. Daimler says

By 2015, we think a fuel cell car will not cost more than a four-cylinder diesel hybrid that meets the Euro 6 emissions standard.

but that by no means guarantees its Mercedes FCV will be truly “affordable” by any reasonable standard, as diesel-electrics are considered one of the most expensive applications of internal combustion power. And then there’s the whole range issue. Yes, FCVs refuel faster than EVs, but even the most ambitious of Hydrogen-boosters, Daimler, are only pushing vehicles with a 250-mile range. Which is why we puzzled a bit over The Globe And Mail‘s assesment that

Three Mercedes-Benz B-Class F-CELL models will make [a 125-day] global trek, which will seek to highlight the real-world benefits of fuel cells versus EVs – mainly their much further range

Flipping over to AutoMotorundSport, we find that the irony which completely escaped the G&M is threatening to overwhelm Daimler’s entire demonstration. And, as is only natural when things like this occur, there’s a bizarre TTAC connection…

So, I’m reading the AMundS write-up on the leg of the F-Cell world tour from Stuttgart to Reims, France, and both German writers start stuck in the F-Cell’s none-to-commodious back seat. Up front, two Americans seem to be trying to set a new speed record, as “Michael” of “Auto Blog” (presumabely Michael Harley of Autoblog) “stared, transfixed, at the speedo and passed the record numbers to his navigator, Jonny.” This “Jonny,” as it turns out, is none other than TTAC Alum and “Auto Trend” scribe Jonny Lieberman, who (literally) had a front-seat ticket for Daimler’s fuel-cell fiasco.

Apparently, even after reaching the F-Cell’s electronically-limited 178 KPH VMax, “The man from ‘Auto Blog’” did not want to give up “a single meter of “Unlimited German Autobahn” (NB: capitalization is a sign of German humor). According to the backseat Germans, the ride flew by thanks to both the velocity and the “extensive ravings” about previous trips to Germany with wives and Porsches.

The pace was only interrupted when a cell phone rang, and “Mission Control” asked the four journos to report when they’d consumed a quarter and half of their hydrogen tank. “Houston, we have a problem,” came the reply from inside the F-Cell, “our tank is already half-empty.”  The journalists are told not to exceed 100 KPH for the rest of the trip, and (counter-inuitively) “Michael” moved over to let least-likely hypermiler in recent memory, Mr Jonny Lieberman, behind the wheel.

The narrative continues:

The crossing of the Rhine has echoes of Apollo 13. “I have turned off all systems” says Mike… The pace now rests at 80 KPH. It doesn’t help. With almost 200 grams of hydrogen after 227 kilometers, the engine is turned off. “How much is that converted?” asks Mike. “Less than a Quarter-Pounder” reckons Jonny.

Inevitable reference here. Professional restraint here.

American stereotype-mongery aside, the real lesson here is that the first two F-Cell vehicles on the world tour didn’t even make it to the first refueling station, a temporary operation that was set up by the several internal-combustion-powered trucks that follow the world tour. Instead, both had to ride in the back of ICE-powered trucks to get to the fueling station, which itself was set up by trucks. Needless to say, part of Daimler’s goal with the Tour is to highlight the need for hydrogen refueling stations… but with enough infrastructure investment, EVs could do everything the F-Cell can. Absent a convincing advantage in range, the head-start in electrical infrastructure (as well as other efficiency considerations) seems to make EVs more practical as a wide-scale zero-emissions solution than FCVs… and the F-Cell World Tour doesn’t seem likely to change that perception. Especially if they keep letting lead-footed American writers do the driving.

Surf over to AMundS for more photos and German-language coverage of the F-Cell world tour

More little steps on the hydrogen fuel cell front, part of the walk-up to the big 2015 launch: Hyundai signed a memorandum of understanding with Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Iceland to supply hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles to public organizations in a pilot program, The Nikkei [sub] reports.

Hyundai will supply the cars gratis. “The initial agreement will help Hyundai Motor Group to take the lead in the hydrogen fuel cell car market in Europe,” says a slightly optimistic statement. Be it as it may, there is definitely something afoot with Hydrogen in Europe, Korea and Japan.

Yesterday, I changed my base of operations to Tokyo for a month to escape the Chinese New Year festivities (i.e. one month of WW III worthy fireworks, combined with closed shops and restaurants.) If I would have stuck it out a few days longer, I could have enjoyed a ride in a fuel cell vehicle.

Starting on January 29, Toyota Motor will provide “TOYOTA FCHV-adv” (as in “fuel cell hybrid vehicle-advanced”) vehicles to a new car service from Tokyo’s Narita Airport. Toyota is acting upon a request from the Research Association of Hydrogen Supply/Utilization Technology (HySUT), a participant in the Hydrogen Highway Project run by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).

Toyota has already provided a hydrogen-powered bus for use on a commercial route between central Tokyo and Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The idea is to gather data for the big hydrogen roll-out in 2015.

Detailed data of the still experimental FCHV-adv can be found in the Toyota press release. The car uses the same core hybrid synergy drive as the Toyota Prius, except that the power is delivered by a hydrogen-fed fuel cell. What is most impressive: Despite the definite SUV-like characteristics of the vehicle (the FCHV-adv is based on a Toyota Highlander), there will be not even the slightest pang of range anxiety in this car. With a full high-pressure tank of hydrogen, it can go for 830km (515 miles) before it needs a fill-up.

No, there is no on-board toilet.

EVs are the darling of the media. In Europe, the Leaf is the COTY. In the U.S. and Canada, the range extended Volt is the COTY. Then why are most big European manufacturers (except Renault) and most Japanese manufacturers (except Nissan) dragging their heels when it comes to wholesale electrification of their fleets? Maybe because they are working on wholesale adoption of hydrogen. As previously reported, there are agreements between automakers and governments in Europe, North America, Korea and Japan to prepare for the mass introduction of fuel cell cars by 2015. Japan is ahead of the game.

Thirteen Japanese companies (no bad omen in Asia, nine would be bad, four would be really bad) got together to move ahead with hydrogen: Toyota, ,Nissan, Honda on the manufacturer side teamed up with supplier-side companies JX Nippon Oil & Energy, Idemitsu Kosan, Iwatani, Osaka Gas, Cosmo Oil, Saibu Gas, Showa Shell, Taiyo Nippon Sanso, Tokyo Gas, and Toho Gas. Note the presence of gas and gasoline companies. Note the presence of Nissan.

Today, these 13 companies jointly announced:

1. As development of fuel-cell systems progresses, Japanese automakers are continuing to drastically reduce the cost of manufacturing such systems and are aiming to launch FCVs in the Japanese market—mainly in the country’s four major metropolitan areas—in 2015. The automobile industry hopes to popularize the use of FCVs after their initial introduction as a way of tackling energy and environmental issues.
2. Hydrogen fuel suppliers are aiming to construct approximately 100 hydrogen fueling stations by 2015, based on the number of FCVs expected to initially enter the market, to ensure a smooth launch and to create initial market.
3. With an aim to significantly reduce the amount of CO2 emitted by the transportation sector, automakers and hydrogen fuel suppliers will work together to expand the introduction of FCVs and develop the hydrogen supply network throughout Japan. The two groups are looking to the government to join them in forming various strategies to support their joint efforts and to gain greater consumer acceptance.

Nevertheless, most automakers think that research and investment in this category is important, almost 90 percent are planning to invest in hybrid systems, battery electric power or hydrogen fuel-cell technologies over the next five years.

These are, in a nutshell, the sobering results of the KPMG 2011 Global Automotive Executive Survey, which asked over 200 global automakers, suppliers and dealers where they think their business will be going over the coming five to 10 years.

Here are the main insights:

• Fuel-efficiency remains the biggest consideration when purchasing a car.
• The growth (but not the volume) will be in hybrid and electric vehicles over the next five years.
• A two-tier global market evolves: Mature countries struggle to cope with changing mobility behavior. Up-and-coming regions push to deliver a variety of cars to populations eager for greater mobility.
• Population growth and urbanization is driving a significant change across the entire automotive landscape.
• While the world waits for affordable electric vehicles, ‘mobility service solutions’ (short-term rental of a car, or various modes of transport) are what some respondents believe may be game-changing. Only nine percent of respondents believe that mobility solutions will represent a significant part of their strategy. However, some automakers like Daimler, Peugeot, BMW and others are already investing in this area. Says KPMG: “Those who own the mobility grid could well be the same as those who own the market.”
• Development of alternative fuels and powertrain technologies is risky and costly. 68 percent of major players are opting to enter into strategic alliances or joint ventures with suppliers rather than seek capital and go it alone.
• Overcapacity continues to be a chief concern in both mature and emerging markets. Almost two-thirds of respondents believe the US is the most overbuilt, with Japan and Germany following. China and India are expected to reach overcapacity within five years.

Two hundred automotive executives participated in the survey. Over half were business unit heads or higher.

We are picking up more and more signs of an impending revival  of  assumed dead fuel cell technology.

Here is another one:  The Nikkei [sub] says that the Japanese government is supporting an initiative to draw a hydrogen from a surprising source: Oil refining. And they need to be ready by 2015.

One of the many uses of hydrogen is in oil refining. In this case, to remove sulfur from oil. The hydrogen used in this process doesn’t have to be high quality, 90 percent pure suffices.

Fuel cells expect 99.9 percent pure hydrogen. The sponsored project aims to produce high purity hydrogen, based on the “industrial” hydrogen technology, “with an eye toward creating a new source of income,” as The Nikkei says.

The Japanese government will bear half the cots of a cheap project. It is estimated to cost 500 million yen ($ 6.15 million) over a three-year period.  It wants to be ready in time before 2015. Why 2015?

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects a “wide adoption of fuel cell vehicles by fiscal 2015” and “seeks to secure a steady supply of high-purity hydrogen.” Again: Why 2015?

It just so happens that Toyota is dead set on selling its first mass produced fuel cell car by 2015. In Korea, Byung Ki Ahn, general manager of Hyundai-Kia’s Fuel Cell Group, said recently: “There are already agreements between car makers such as ourselves and legislators in Europe, North America and Japan to build up to the mass production of fuel cell cars by 2015.” Indeed, if you go through the many files produced in Brussels, you find that also in Europe “car manufacturers are getting ready for the commercial production of hydrogen vehicles by 2015.” In those many files was the EU master plan, as shown above.

What is this, a hydrogen conspiracy?

Major players in the industry think that EVs are a stopgap measure at best. Volkswagen declared that nobody wants EVs, except governments. In Japan, Toyota and Honda are talking louder and louder about hydrogen. There must be something better than plugins: A revolutionary technology that powers the car from a renewable energy source in an environmentally responsible fashion.

BMW just found what the world needs.

BMW’s CEO Norbert Reithofer said today that automakers, especially German automakers, need to look beyond electricity as the only renewable energy source. He thinks it’s foolish to focus on a single technology, reports Associated Press via Canada’s CTV.

Ok, ok, what is it? You’ve heard it here first:

Reithofer said Germany’s leading automakers “have to come up with something new.”

No kidding, really? You bet. Reithofer predicted that future cars will be based on “a new concept, new construction.”

It’s that simple. German ingenuity at its best.

If you want to offer hybrid cars, but don’t have the money / time / run rate / wherewithal to do it yourself, who’re gonna call? Toyota. But who would have imagined that haughty Daimler picked up the phone, dialed 0081, and said: “Let’s talk?” Daimler considers joining the growing list of automakers that source their hybrid systems from Toyota City.  Toyota is in talks to provide technology and core components for hybrid vehicles to Daimler, after having been approached by the Germans, says The Nikkei [sub].

Toyota might sell Daimler motors and batteries, “in addition to technology.” The Nikkei further heard that “the automakers will also consider forming a broad alliance that would also cover cars powered by fuel cells.”

That’s probably a feel-good move to make Daimler engineers think they can bring parts to the party as well. And wasn’t Daimler in bed with China’s BYD for EV breeding purposes? Something that bugged Daimler’ Chinese joint venture partner BAIC? Or maybe the falling fortunes of BYD have prompted Daimler to look for a more dependable partner to electrify their cars?

YNN reports that the Rochester, NY airport was closed for 50 minutes yesterday, when a hydrogen refueling station run by GM supplier Praxair was rocked by two giant explosions. Details of the explosion are still extremely sketchy, with YNN explaining only that

Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks said it occurred during a tank exchange operation. Brooks said a driver from Praxair was doing the exchange when it appears that some type of arch occurred.

It’s not yet clear if GM’s Sequel hydrogen test fleet had been using the fueling station, but this is the most recent occurrence of the kind of disaster that has helped prevent the development of a large-scale hydrogen infrastructure. Two people were reportedly injured in the blast, but one can only imagine the result of such an explosion in a more urban environment, or in close proximity to a gasoline pumping station. The long awaited hydrogen future may have just slipped a little further out of reach…

With Honda and Toyota suddenly taking hydrogen fuel cells seriously, Hyundai-Kia is jumping on the bandwagon. Byung Ki Ahn, general manager of Hyundai-Kia’s Fuel Cell Group tells Autocar

There are already agreements between car makers such as ourselves and legislators in Europe, North America and Japan to build up to the mass production of fuel cell cars by 2015. Hydrogen production capacity and refuelling infrastructure will be improved. Pilot-scale production of 1000 fuel cell cars a year will begin for us in two years. Our first cars won’t be fully commercialised [they will probably be leased , not bought outright] but they will allow us to make the final stages of development progress before we begin commercial production of around 10,000 hydrogen cars a year in 2015

And it should come as no surprise that Hyundai is targeting a lower price point than its Japanese competition:

Our fuel cell stack can run at ambient atmospheric pressure, so we don’t need an air compressor and it contains less platinum, making it cheaper. Since 2004 we’ve eliminated 90 per cent of its typical material cost. Toyota has a target to produce 50,000 fuel cell cars a year and expects to be able to price them at $50,000 [£35,000]. We’re confident we can beat it.

Toyota definitely keeps us on our toes. Last week, the tete-a-tete between Toyota and Tesla had the world speculating about an electric push by the world’s largest auto maker. That was last week. This week, it’s hydrogen.

Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) has it that Daimler and Toyota are planning a “far ranging cooperation with fuel cell vehicles.” The paper cites no sources, but says that “a joint venture is conceivable.” Today, The Nikkei [sub] has the same story, based on a report on the Kyodo wire, which cites the FTD. Who’s saying that only blogs crib from each other?

To counter the last accusation, we picked up the phone and called Toyota HQ in Tokyo. We had better luck than the FTD which had said that “neither Toyota nor Daimler had any comments.”

Toyota spokesperson Paul Nolasco said to TTAC that “Toyota has regular exchanges with Daimler and other companies about this technology.” As far as the rumored joint venture goes, “nothing has been decided.” In any case, it’s old news. “We had already talked before,” Nolasco said in a reference to a joint declaration of GM, Toyota, Honda, and Daimler of last September. The companies jointly said that “durability improvements and cost reductions may enable them to sell the zero-emission vehicles by 2015,” Bloomberg had reported, noting that “their plans clash with the U.S. government’s infrastructure priorities.” Which are in favor of electrification.

Development of hydrogen powered vehicles literally has been going on for ages. For more than 200 years, to be exact. An engine, running on an explosive mix of hydrogen and oxygen, was developed in 1806 by a Swiss inventor, and a car powered by said power train was rolling a year later, in 1807. It predated the gasoline engine by more than 60 years. In the 1990s, research into fuel cells intensified, and there is a long list of mostly experimental fuel cell vehicles by most larger car makers.

Hydrogen is not without problems. During its production, fossil fuels are often used, and CO2 is created. Then, there is the nastiness of a hydrogen infrastructure. California already has some 20 hydrogen filling stations for a few hundred experimental hydrogen cars – but if you venture away from Los Angeles, where most stations are clustered, you literally run out of gas.

As far as the plans for alternative energy vehicles go: Relax. Just like any other large auto maker, Toyota and Daimler are keeping their options open. A little research here and there doesn’t hurt. If there is green cred to be harvested along the way, even better. But don’t bet on the imminent death of the ICE.

Lithium-ion batteries aren’t the only automotive cleantech that appears to be getting cheaper. Toyota’s head of advanced autos, Yoshihiko Masuda, tells Bloomberg that the Japanese automaker has cut the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) by 90 percent in the last five years or so. Mid-decade, Toyota’s per-car estimates for FCVs ran near a million dollars per car. With costs now closer to the $100k mark, Toyota says it plans to cut that number in half by 2015. If they can make that happen, Masuda says, a $50k hydrogen FCV will be on like Donkey Kong.

Of course, there’s a tiny question left unanswered even by Toyota’s impressive cost-cutting: will people actually spend $50k on what will likely be a relatively compact green halo vehicle (albeit one with an ICE-equivalent range)? Of course, by 2015, the Volt will have helped answer that question, but it will also be providing competition. And even Masuda doesn’t seem to think that a $50k FCV will exactly set the world on fire. He describes the potential market for such a vehicle as

small, but with some support

And before we scoff too hard at this damning with faint praise, let’s consider that the same could probably have been said of Toyota’s Mk.1 Prius prior to launch… and look how that turned out. Other signs that Toyota is trying to pull off another iteration of the Prius phenomenon lies in the fact that, like the Prius, Toyota doesn’t expect to make any money on the vehicle initially. According to Masuda,

Our target is, we don’t lose money with introduction of the vehicle. Production cost should be covered within the price of the vehicle.

So, no profit, but no big subsidies either… too bad Toyota won’t talk volume targets. And though range will be equivalent to a gas-powered car, the lack of hydrogen refueling stations isn’t promising. On the other hand, a retail-available FCV might be a good step towards improving demand for hydrogen fueling infrastructure. Still, GM has said that it wouldn’t consider marketing a retail FCV until there are at least 40 fueling stations in Southern California, or about four times the current number.

And there’s another problem. Though Toyota has brought down costs thanks to reduced platinum content and cheaper production of fuel cell films, there’s still a real question of what you can expect for your $50k. As in, how long can you expect your $50k FCV to last? According to Masuda:

Our target is at least 100,000 miles, 10 years

That’s not a lot of driving for 50 large. And without proven sources of low-carbon hydrogen in many markets, the environmental benefits aren’t likely to be much of an improvement over, say, the Prius. On the other hand, without gambles like these, we wouldn’t have a Prius for comparison. So is Toyota ahead of the curve the way it was with the Prius, or is the hybrid leader losing the plot? As a longtime EV skeptic, Toyota probably likes its chances… but it probably knows this won’t be easy either.

Which drive train will own the future? ICE, hydrogen, hybrid? BMW bets it will be all of the above. Autocar reports that BMW has mated a regular ICE with a fuel cell, electricity-storing supercapacitors and an electrically driven rear-axle. The reasoning behind this new type of hybrid is that BMW’s engineers believe that this power train will make the cars capable of switching to an emissions free propulsion system and switch back to ICE when needed. Now I know what you’re thinking at this point. “Cammy, aside from being the worst new writer of the year, why would anyone want to buy a car like this?” Well, the answer lies in Europe.

As Europe looks to meeting the Kyoto Protocol and clean up air quality in cities, many cities are already banning stinkers from city centers. Not only that, soon cities will make it costly to drive and park a regular car, while non-polluting ones drive free or get a discount. A car which can switch to an emission free propulsion system suddenly starts to make sense, as this powertrain could get around these bans. Once back on the Autobahn …

The BMW power train is capable of being stuffed inside a FWD series 1 hatchback and the Mini Clubman. The project hasn’t been greenlit by BMW bosses as while this is good in theory, in reality, there are still problems. One of which is, who will pay to create a hydrogen filling infrastructure in these cities? Yep, it’s not easy being green.

It’s been said many a time that the problem with hydrogen as an energy storage system for cars is that it is always the future and never the present of transportation. Indeed, hydrogen has nearly fallen of the alt-fuel radar in recent years, as present-techs like hybrid and even electric drive have matured. But the dream is not dead. The great hydrogen hope now lives with General Motors, in the form of a new, lighter-weight fuel cell which GM says will be production-ready by 2015.  The new cell is 225 lbs lighter and uses one-third less platinum than the systems being tested in GM’s 30-month “Project Driveway” Equinox fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs). That leaves more platinum for trimming Escalades, and has GM thinking that real-life series production of FCVs could be possible. GM’s Charles Freese tells Automotive News [sub]:

Our learning from Project Driveway has been tremendous. The 30 months we committed to the demonstration are winding down. But we will keep upgrades of these vehicles running and will continue learning from them while we focus efforts on the production-intent program for 2015. We will continue to use the Project Driveway fleet strategically to advance fuel cell technology, hydrogen infrastructure and GM’s vehicle electrification goals

some of the 119 fuel cell electric vehicles in Project Driveway will receive hardware and software upgrades and will become part of a technology demonstration program with the U.S. Department of Energy. Others will be driven by businesses and a few will be used to continue showing that, with proper fueling infrastructure, hydrogen fuel cells are a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles

GM doesn’t specify the origins of this latest generation of hydrogen fuel cell, but it’s likely the product of Germany-based GM program which is currently testing the HydroGen4, a Pontiac Torrent-based testbed for GM’s latest fuel-cell technology. An Auto Motor und Sport test of the HydroGen4 showed that between 150 and 200 miles of range can be expected, with a 0-60 time of about ten seconds and a top speed of 100 MPH. The system stores hydrogen at 700 BAR, and also uses a NiMh battery to store energy from a regenerative braking system. Refueling could take as little 3 minutes at a fixed station, but it took a good 15 minutes for AM und S using a mobile fuel tanker provided by GM.

At €500k to €1m per unit, the cost-per-performance is still wildly undercompetitive with battery EVs. Though GM is touting a reduction in platinum content, the catalyst was the major weak point in the system when AM und S tested the HdroGen4 just over a year ago. At the time, GM’s Larry Burns noted that

Although the HydroGen4 uses the fourth generation of fuel cell, it will still need about three more development cycles before it’s truly production-ready. Hydrogen fuel cells will only be a true alternative in the 2016-2018 timeframe.

So, what’s changed that makes GM so optimistic about hydrogen? There’ are no details yet on the technical front, but Europe’s dirty electricity-generating mix (which limits EVs C02 benefits) is creating government incentives to develop fuel-cell alternatives there. The Clean Energy Program already has Toyota hyping hydrogen, so it’s likely that GM wants in on that government-funded action. Meanwhile the biggest concern with FCVs is refueling. According to GM’s calculations, it would cost $11.7b to create an effective hydrogen refueling network in the USA. If GM expects our government to fund that project, it will probably be waiting quite a while for that amount to shake free from DC’s overburdened budgets.