A day before GM officially announced that the Astra production will be moved to Ellesmere Port, a move that is widely believed to seal the fate of Opel’s Bochum plant, we said that the decision won’t go down well in Germany, and that it will be very tough working with a doomed workforce. The workforce is already getting restive.

Opel’s works council chief Schäfer-Klug says he has evidence that the Ellesmere Port decision was bought with subsidies. According to EU law, subsidies are illegal, except under clearly defined circumstances. You may remember that it was the anti-subsidy rule that torpedoed GM’s plan back in 2009 to sell Opel jobs to the highest bidding country.

According to Automobilwoche [sub], members of the European Parliament already asked the European Commission to look into the matter, and that the Commission usually does not reject such a request.

UK business secretary Vince Cable denies that subsidies have been pledged. Opel also denies that subsidies were promised, but said that there are “a number of existing mechanisms in the UK for the support of the industry.”

One man’s subsidy is the other man’s support mechanism. We probably have not heard the last of this.

Opel chief Karl-Friedrich Stracke was asked to tell his workers unambiguously whether the Opel plant in Bochum will be closed or remain open. Today, Stracke met with workers in Bochum. He told them that no decision has been made – yet.

The meeting took place after state premier Hannelore Kraft had called on Stracke “to make a clear statement on his plans,” says Reuters. Pressured by Detroit to stem the bloodletting of Opel, and pressured by Northrhine-Westfalia’s highly popular premier, Stracke took the easy way out.

He said that he would stick to the contracts that forbid plant closures or firing through 2014. However, “in the long term, the company has to be put on a solid footing,” Die Welt paraphrased Stracke.

Ever since GM decided to move future Astra production the Ellesmere Port, the Bochum plant is said to be the first GM will close once it can. Maybe workers will receive an answer on June 28. This is when Stracke will present a business-plan to Opel’s supervisory board.

An obviously Axis-inspired driver was seen today in Kamakura, Japan, complete with aloha shirt and toy poodle. A British crime writer who stood next to me swore up and down  that this is the real thing and an original Messerschmitt Kabinenroller. What do you think?

I think this is too slick a fiberglass replica of the Messerschmitt. The real McMesserschmitt had three wheels instead of four, and the bodywork had some serious panel gaps.

The real Messerschmitt Kabinenroller had a 173 cm³ (10.5ci)  enginelet that propelled the Schmitt to an exhilarating 90 km/h  (55 mph). For a long time, it would have been just fine for the freeway.

The story that Messerschmitt had a surplus of  Me 109 fighter canopies that were recycled into the Kabinenroller is most likely apocryphal .

Allegedly, there is rampant overcapacity in Europe. Not so at BMW. “The BMW plants are busting at the seams,” writes Germany’s Handelsblatt. BMW is looking into building new factories abroad. Possible locations are Central Europe. Or rather Mexico, writes the paper.

BMW already has a factory in Hungary. Hungary and Slovakia are begging BMW to build plants there. Their chances diminish by the day.

The European market is contracting and is expected to contract even more. Already, bimmers built for Bavarians are shipped to the U.S. or China instead. Sometimes, diesel engines are swapped out to make room for gasoline power.

BMW has enough plants in China. Next week, BMW chief Norbert Reithofer will travel to the Middle Kingdom to open a second plant.

All of this improves the chances for a BMW plant in Mexico. Mexico has low wages, a low peso, and a strong supply base. Most of all, the country has agreements that allow more or less unencumbered exportation to South America, to Europe, and of course the U.S.

Of course, leaks to the media could also be a signal to Brazil. Says Reuters:

“BMW wants to build a plant in Brazil, but has threatened to pull the plug on this if new government policies there meant it could not profitably make cars.”

BMW has been negotiating for months with Brazil and is getting nowhere. The Brazilian government makes one new demand after the other, BMW executives say off the record. The Brazilians think they have all the cards after Brazil has thrown up a new wall of import restrictions. Imports need a license, needed imports often get entangled in red tape. In-country assembly needs a lot of imported parts, and it needs them on time.

Restricting imports is a knee-jerk reaction than can easily be sold to a gullible population with rising unemployment. All too often, the policy has the opposite effect. New plants and jobs are created in countries with more lenient policies. In the meantime, the employed and unemployed back home pay for the policy in higher prices, and eventually, through the meanest taxation there is: Inflation.

Golf GTI Cabriolet. After its world premiere at the Geneva Motor Show, GTI enthusiasts can ogle the topless Golf from up close. The 2.0 liter engine makes 210 hp, nearly double the 110 hp of the first GTI. The hot hatch is sits on American shoes. 17-inch alloys of type ‘Denver’ are standard, 18-inch wheels of type ‘Detroit’ are optionally available.

Polo WRC Street:  At Wörthersee, Volkswagen will be presenting for the first time a preview of an extremely sporty small series, which is due to be launched in late 2013. Comes with a  220 hp 2.0 liter TSI.

Polo R-WRC: A road-going prototype for the FIA World Rally Championship. The “hottest Polo ever” as Volkswagen R&D chief Ulrich Hackenberg called it, sports a 1.6 liter TSI engine with approximately 300 hp. Jeez.

GTI Black Dynamic: Built by Volkswagen apprentices who like disco. Features a 1,800 Watt sound system with nine loudspeakers, which take up the entire trunk.

Golf GTI ‘White Concept’: According to the press release, “the attractive design study Golf GTI ‘White Concept’ is characterized by its remarkable ‘Oryx White matt’ paintwork.”  Then, they forgot to send pictures in white and sent Scirocco R ConceptBlue pictures instead. Color me confused.

To put you in the mood, here is a video clip from last year. If you hurry, you can still get the tail end of the GTI Meet. It lasts through Saturday the 19^th. Go to Munich, head south, follow the crowd.

Workers agreed to a four-year deal that freezes wages for two years, and that allows only moderate rises of around 3 percent for the following two years, Reuters heard from a source. The source also said:

“It’s almost certain that one of GM’s German plants will now be closed, probably the plant in Bochum.”

Currently, some Astra production is at Opel’s Rüsselsheim plant in Germany. Beginning in 2015, this will shift to Ellesmere Port. The Polish plant in Gliwice most likely will continue Astra production. It is expected that production of other cars will be shifted from Bochum to Rüsselsheim, with Bochum to be shuttered.

According to a GM statement, the Ellesmere Port plant will run three-shifts at full capacity. GM committed to a minimum of 160,000 vehicles to be produced each year. The company will invest £125 million into the facility and expects to create circa 700 new direct jobs. The agreement comes into force in 2013 and runs through the life of the next-generation Astra, into the early 2020s. Production of the new Astra will begin in 2015. This is also when the current contracts with European unions run out. Until then, all plants must stay open, and all workers must remain working.

Ellesmere Port had been on GM’s target list, but survived again. This also means a continuation revival of the British car industry, this time with a British brand on German cars. Lately, the island has been a preferred location for production by Asian manufacturers, such as Nissan, Toyota, and Tata. Britain now exports more cars than it imports for the first time since 1976.

According to a report in the London Telegraph, workers at the Vauxhall plant voted on Wednesday on concessions. The results of the ballot are not announced yet, but British media treats it as a done deal.

 Reuters says that Opel presented a catalogue of demands “including wage cuts, more temporary workers and outsourcing.”

The Daily Mail already seems to know that “Ellesmere Port and Gliwice in Poland will now become the only two manufacturing centres of the next generation Vauxhall Astra which hits showrooms from 2015.” The paper also is certain that “Opel’s Bochum plant in Germany, which builds the Zafira, is set for closure.”

A Daily Mail source opined that “The German unions will go bonkers.”

The source is probably right. The German Metal Worker union demands pay hikes from all automakers. There already were widespread warning strikes at Audi, BMW, Daimler and parts suppliers. GM and Opel are contractually precluded from closing any Opel plants in Europe through 2014. Jobs are likewise secure. Once plant closures are announced, it will be very tough working with the doomed workforce.

While GM is withdrawing from Facebook advertising, over in Europe, Opel does the opposite:  Opel spent untold budget amounts to hire Orlando Higginbottom, better known as Totally Enormous Extinct Dinosaurs. The hot UK producer, remixer and DJ was hired to flog … clicks to Facebook.

Opel’s new small car, either named after Opel’s founding father Adam Opel, or the man who followed the dictum that an apple a day keeps the snake away, is marketed heavily via Facebook.  Adam’s name was slow-revealed on Youtube and Facebook. Adam has its own Facebook page.  Now,  Opel  signed Higginbottom to drive traffic from here to Adam.

The Higginbottom video is gutsy and tragic at the same time.

It’s gutsy, because choosing  “Totally Enormous Extinct Dinosaurs” as the spokesman for a car that harkens back to a man that would be 175 years old if he still would be alive, or that reminds us of more biblical ages, shows dry wit and self-effacing humility, usually in short supply at GM.

It’s tragic, because the video will create few clicks. At 0:29, you are asked to “Find out more at Adam & You.”  How? You have one second to find the non-existent URL, then, it’s fade to black. If you want to find out more, you need to peruse Google, and you most likely will land on the latest hits of  Totally Enormous Extinct Dinosaurs. Out of compassion for the tragicomedy, we run the ad at no charge. Here, one more time.

Reuters checked with ad-tracking firm Kantar Media. Kantar says that GM spent $1.1 billion on U.S. ads last year. It spent about $271 million on online display and search ads excluding Facebook. Facebook received $10 million. The creation of content and the advertising and media agencies involved in the Facebook project costs $30 million, the Wall Street Journal said. A bit lopsided.

In the grand scheme of things, pulling ads from Facebook barely moves the needle. However, I see Opel to salute obediently, and to pull its Facebook support once Adam has been born.

You would have to travel far to shoot (bad boy as you are) a Bali tiger. Germany’s Auto, Motor und Sport Magazin did not have to travel further than the Golfanlage Schloss Nippenburg to shoot themselves a Macan. Macan is Indonesian for tiger, better known as the name for Porsche’s upcoming SUVlet.

What AMS found here, only superficially camouflaged, will be available in 2013. The Porsche Macan, built in Leipzig, will use the platform of the Audi Q5/Q4. To keep price and exhilaration down, Porsche will use Audi mills in the Macan. To provide some rationale for the higher price, the Macan motors are said to be beefier than those of its Audi alter ego.

Starting price of the Macan in Germany is expected to be around €40,000 ($51,0000). According to AMS, the Macan „looks like a baby-Cayenne.“

In case you have surplus cash sitting around, doing absolutely nothing, hang on to it until the end of 2013. This is when Porsche finally wants to crank up production of its Über-Porsche, the 918 Spyder. Porsche has finished the initial prototypes, which are cleverly camouflaged: If you see something whizzing by, and you think to yourself: “This looked just like a Porsche 917 race car,” then you actually saw a 918 in drag.

If you haven’t heard already, the 918 is is designed as a plug-in hybrid vehicle combining a high-performance combustion engine with electric motors. The car is built as full carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) monocoque with unit carrier, has fully adaptive aerodynamics, adaptive rear-axle steering and the upward-venting “top pipes” exhaust system.

What Stracke presented today did not impress. Stracke said that production of the volume model Astra, currently made in three locations, will be concentrated on two plants – which, remains open.

The PSA alliance will not bring immediate results, the reports say. The first car with a common architecture is expected not earlier then 2016.

Opel is already thinking of more alliances. “Opel is open to beneficial partnerships, like the recent one with PSA Peugeot Citroen,” the company said in a statement.

Criticized that Opel had been kept out of new growth markets, Stracke states that Opel wants to open new markets in Australia, North Africa, South America and the Middle East. “We already started successfully in Israel and we will intensify our engagement in China, Russia and Turkey,” Stracke said while stressing that exports into other markets than Europe are not the do-all and end-all.

No kidding: Israel is a 240,000 unit per year market, or about as important on a global scale as the Czech Republic. Opel’s engagement in China so far has led to nothing, seen any Opels in GM’s China statistics? And why does GM have to look for new alliance partners while it sits on the world’s largest (and most mis-managed) scale effect?

Let’s face it: There is no quick fix in sight.

Opel’s and GM’s hands are tied through 2014 by contracts with the unions, the losses will continue.

Closing one plants in 2015 will cost some $2 billion, creating a huge loss after years of hefty losses.

It typically takes a few years until a painful restructuring will show its effects.  This costs time and money, and Opel has neither.

The surprising malaise is elsewhere, further east, much further east.

In China, Porsche sold a mere 0.9 percent more than in April last year. In Europe, bankers and brokers turned their dwindling bonus payments into 13.1 percent more Porsches. In Germany, Porsche sales climbed a baffling 21.5 percent.

January through April, Chinese sales are still up 26.7 percent, but Porsche is quickly losing its Middle Kingdom moxie. Last month in China, Porsches seem to have gone out of style. Porsche had a huge recall of Cayennes in March, delayed reaction perhaps?

However, Porsche receives huge kudos for delivering its numbers in a spin-free, easy to read table, an example all automakers should follow. Any temporary weaknesses in China are quickly forgiven by this reporter as long as the numbers are delivered in an easy to use manner.

If GM’s Opel would have a jobs bank, its accounts would be bulging. Opel has far too much capacity for far too little sales.  The situation at Opel “is more dramatic than thought,” writes Germany’s Focus Magazin. The magazine got is hands on confidential production plan (most likely leaked by interested parties,) and the numbers are horrific.

Capacity ultilization at Opel (Focus Magazine)

Only 65 percent of the capacity in Rüsselsheim is utilized, the plan says. In some Opel factories there is even less work.

Opel wants to build one million cars in 2012, but has capacities for 1.6 million. This is a capacity utilization of 63 percent. If Opel sales continue on their downward trajectory, capacity utilization of 50 percent could become reality. In the business, capacity utilization below 80 percent is a sign for losing money.

Opel will have to close at least one plant in Europe, possibly two if the scale effect of the alliance with PSA are supposed to be realized.  Through 2014, plant closures and firings are impossible, due to a contract with the unions. After 2014, plant closures and firings will cost a lot of money.  The unions already threaten to withdraw their restructuring contribution of $340 million per year. “We won’t pay for our own funeral,” Opel’ s works council chief Rainer Einenkel to Focus. Careful, Walter: The restructuring contribution appears to be part of the contract that forbids plant closures …

“The brand is the main reason to buy a Porsche. That’s why we need to see to it that the brand remains what it is, a desirable premium. If we would offer a car positioned below the Boxster, we would be talking to a completely new target group. If that would lose us the current Porsche customers, then we wouldn’t do our brand a big favor.”

Müller thinks a car positioned between the 911 and the 918 is worth considering, but it is currently not in his plans. Neither is a small Panamera.

Come to think of it, Müller had said something like that many months ago. Apparently, it is worth repeating.

April was a mixed month for Volkswagen, and the bad most likely will get worse. The times of double-digit growth rates seem to be over for a while. Volkswagen sales in Europe appear to be down by 2.7 percent in April, with Western Europe (ex Germany) down nearly 10 percent. South America also took a 9.3 percent hit. The negative numbers are offset by strong deliveries in China, up 16.8 percent and the U.S., up 27.4 percent in April. With nearly half of VW’s sales in Europe, it takes a lot of pumping in other markets to keep the ship from taking on water. Even if Volkswagen goes into minus territory, it will be far from sinking.  Any hopes of becoming the number one automaker or even remaining in the number 2 position are quickly fading.
Now imagine how other European makers will perform that don’t have the global cushion Volkswagen has. Bad news for Opel, PSA, Fiat and Renault.

In the first four months of the year, Audi’s global deliveries rose 11.7 percent to 471,300 units. Audi sold 1.3 million autos in 2011. It had targeted 2015 as the year to sell more than 1.5 million. (“1.5 in 15” – get it?)

“The way things look at the moment, we may be able to reach this target earlier,” Stadler told his shareholders today, while Reuters was talking notes.

With double-digit growth in China and America, 1.5 in 15 would sound downright timid, nein?

The contract manufacturer Magna Steyr will assemble “a future luxury entry level compact vehicle” for Nissan’s premium brand Infiniti. This according to a joint statement issued by both companies. Production of the mystery vehicle will start in 2014.

The agreement is still in the MOU phase and not binding. However, it “follows an engineering assignment which Magna Steyr is already intensively working on.” Apparently, Infiniti is happy with Magna’s work so far.

According to Infiniti Chief Andy Palmer, the “new vehicle represents a significant opportunity for the Infiniti brand to reach new consumers and grow in key markets such as Western Europe.” Which gives another hint.

Infiniti luxury entry level compact vehicle aimed at Western European market. What could it be?

People at Nissan are not talking, pointing to the fact that companies are still finalizing the details for the manufacturing and supply agreements.

Magna has been supplying parts and components to Nissan, for instance  the soft tops for the Nissan Murano or the Infiniti G37 convertible. Magna has been doing a lot of contract work for Daimler, and Daimler has an alliance with Renault/Nissan.

My feeling is that the mystery car will be the production version of Infiniti’s Etherea Concept, shown first at the Geneva Motor Show in 2011. At the time, it was rumored that a production Etherea would share into the Mercedes A-Class platform – and that the car would be built by Magna Steyr.

Today, Opel revealed the real name of its Junior. Via Facebook. Everybody, say Hallo to Adam. Give that boy an apple!

After a lot of talk, GM is beginning to create facts at Opel: The production of Opel’s volume model, the Astra, will be moved from Rüsselsheim to Opel/Vauxhall sites in Ellesmere Port and Gliwice, Poland. This according to reports in Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, which receives usually reliable information from Opel’s unions.

The union informants of the FAZ say that the decision will be announced in a few weeks. Their information is from Steve Girsky. Girsky heads Opel’s Supervisory Board where the unions have half of the seats.\

With more than 300,000 units made per year, the Astra is (next to the Corsa) Opel’s most important model. A decision to move its production elsewhere is devastating, a union member told the Frankfurt paper. “It is as if the Volkswagen Golf would no longer be built in Wolfsburg,” the informant said. One third of Rüsselsheim’s production capacity is currently used to make the Astra, says the FAZ

The move is planned for 2015, when the new generation of the Astra will be launched. In the same year, the agreement expires that until then prohibits firings or plant closures.

An Opel spokesman had no comment and referred to ongoing discussions. According to Der Spiegel, Opel CEO Stracke implicitly confirmed the story by praising Rüsselsheim’s importance for the production of the Opel Insignia.

Vis-a-vis the Wall Street Journal, GM later confirmed that it presented the strategy for the upcoming compact-car generation to its labor unions. Stracke said in a statement:

“After finalizing an information and consultation process with European labor representatives the company will decide at which plants the next Astra generation will be produced from 2015 on.”

Hat tip to the mountain man.

Germany’s Handelsblatt has it on good, albeit anonymous authority that Volkswagen wants to round out its SUV portfolio with models based on the Polo and the even smaller Up! Officially, Volkswagen neither denies nor confirms the rumor. Says a Volkswagen spokesperson:

 “We are looking at everything. SUVs are very interesting. Our modular concept allows more derivatives. No decision has been made yet.“

The paper expects the entry-level SUV to cost “significantly less than €20,000.”

BMW turns more and more into the world’s purveyor of engines. If recent talks are successful, BMW motors could power Hyundai cars. This according to a report in Germany’s industry publication Automobil Produktion.

The magazine reports that Chung Eui-Sun, Vice-Chairman of Hyundai Motor Company and only son of und Hyundai CEO Chung Mong-Koo, has been in Munich to start the talks.

BMW needs to put its engines into more than its own 1.7 million cars which BMW sold in 2011. The development of a new engine family costs between one and two billion Euro ($1.3 to 2.6 billion.) The 5.7 million units sold by Hyundai/Kia could deliver the desired scale effects.

BMW has engine alliances with PSA and Toyota. A cooperation with GM could be in the works. With so many partners, there also are ten times as many toes to step on. Both BMW and Hyundai officially deny any talks.

“Further co-operation partners are currently not foreseen,” BMW CEO Norbert Reithofer told Reuters.  A Hyundai spokesman called speculations about meetings between senior company officials ” groundless.” Nevertheless, a source inside of BMW confirmed to Reuters that there are talks “in the early stages.”

Says just-auto:

“In the R18, a V6 diesel engine sends drive to the rear wheels, while for the front axle, the energy is electrically recuperated and fed into a flywheel. This can then be returned to the front wheels during acceleration. Of interest here is that Audi has chosen this technology over batteries. Why? According to Wolfgang Ullrich who heads up Audi’s Motorsport division, even the most advanced cells would have been too heavy.”

Ullrich says that this it not just tinkering with race toys:

“I can safely state that the things we’re testing with flywheel energy storage are of interest to our production colleagues too. The combination of different systems is an aspect that will have to be considered in various applications in the future.”

As you can see in the graph above, German car sales in 2012 (green) pretty much retrace sales in 2011 (red) with a slight upward bias.

“Except for Ford (-5.3 percent) and Opel (- 9.1 percent), all German brands registered growth compared to the same period in the prior year,” says the Kraftfahrtbundesamt that tallies these numbers based on registrations by end users. This is bad news especially for Opel. In the first four months of the year, its sales are 9.2 percent behind the results in the same period in 2011. EU results are likely to be worse. For the January-April period, Ford only lags 2.3 percent behind the previous year period. (Also, the federal agency officially classifies Ford and Opel as “German” brands, which should settle an old argument at TTAC, at least officially.)

Fuel is so expensive in Germany that recent rises keep buyers unimpressed. MPVs (+13.1 percent) and SUVs (+13.6 percent) outsold the market, so did subcompacts (+32.2 percent).

Full data (in German) available here.

While other car companies are perfecting the art of the slow on-line strip-tease of their car pictures, over in Germany, GM’s Opel does a slow reveal of a name.

Opel asks everybody to “get ready for May 8th, when we will announce the true name of our latest model.” Of course, the disrobing of the name has its own Facebook page. Observers think the soon-to-be-named car is the Opel Junior, Opel’s answer to  BMW’s Mini, or Fiat’s 500. Two problems:

• Since when is Junior allowed into a strip club?
• May 8th is remembered in Germany for when they lost the war.

When Piech took over as CEO of Volkswagen in 1992, he was known for his sharp tongue. He also had a reputation as a master swordsman. He mass-produced children. As a student, he maximized output of a short-lived marriage with Corina – the marriage produced 5 children. He then had an affair with the wife of his cousin Gerd Porsche. Although not married, they produced two children. There were two more children, “from another connection.”

1982, Piech is R&D chief at Audi, and someone needs to watch the now 9 children. The Porsche/Piech couple puts an ad in the paper. The 25 year old Ursula Plasser is hired as a nanny. Two years later, Ursula Plasser is Ursula Piech.

Ferdinand and Ursula enlarged the fleet of Piech children by another three for a total of 12. There are rumors that there might be more, also fuelled by Piech’s flippant remarks. Asked how many children he has, he once answered: “About twelve. You never can tell for sure.”

By some accounts, Ursula is 19 years younger than Ferdinand, by others 20. You never can tell for sure. Engineer Piech prepares her as the successor model of the Piech dynasty. Two years ago, the potent patriarch transferred his shares to two trusts. When he dies, Ursula and the children will be the beneficiaries, with Ursula at the helm and now on board at Volkswagen.