Hyundai may really, honestly launch its own luxury brand. In a way, at least, perhaps

For years, Hyundai has been going back and forth over on question: Luxury brand or not? Imitate Infiniti? Do it like Lexus? A la Acura? This conundrum produced millions of Google hits, but otherwise led to nothing. Hyundai may finally cave in and do it. Hyundai’s U.S. sales chief Dave Zuchowski told Automotive News [sub] that such a move could be in the offing. Why? Customers are well ahead of Hyundai and already created a new brand called “Genesis.”

Said Zuchowski:

“There’s a conversation going on within the company that says, ‘Does having the Hyundai badge on the premium vehicles sell more vehicles, or does it restrict us from selling more vehicles?’”

Depending on which way this discussion goes, Hyundai’s “H” badge would be replaced by a Genesis badge on rear-wheel-drive premium vehicles, including the Equus, Genesis sedan and Genesis Coupe. The cars would be branded as Genesis with an alphanumeric naming system.

Zuchowski told AN that many Genesis buyers already replace the Hyundai badge with a winged Genesis badge. It’s a dealer-installed option that costs extra.  For the frugal, rebadging how-tos have been on YouTube since 2009.  Remember: Tailgate version, not hood version!”

No decision has been made, says AN, and no timetable has been set. If a Genesis brand is born, the cars would be sold in Hyundai dealerships, not through a separate dealership network.

Sure, this is how it always starts …

Polk finally gives an answer to a question that had given mankind sleepless nights, for als long as since the invention of the wheel: Why do customers stay loyal to their car brand? Really: Why in God’s name? Truth be told, Polk only asked why owners of luxury vehicles return to their dealer to buy again. Instead of, say, emigrating to North Korea. Or joining the witness protection program. The study produced shocking revelations.

The majority of the respondents sticks with the brand because they like it. A whopping 44 percent said they buy again due to undying brand affinity.

Other criteria take a back seat, says the study.

Quality/reliability? A minor matter, cited only by 33 percent.

Driving performance? Not really important. Only 24 percent come back because the old car performed.

Price? Finance? Value? Who needs it?  Only 16 percent do.

Styling and design? As unimportant as money. Only 16 percent are swayed by beauty.

Apparently, this was a multiple choice study. Now before carmakers around the world punch the air and yell “I’ve said it all along! It’s the brand, stupid!” let’s investigate why people abandon their beloved brand when they abandon their beloved brand.

#1 reason: I got a better deal.

#2 reason: The other car looks better

#3 reason: I like the other brand better

#4 reason: Time for a change

#5 reason: Better performance, better design

Here is the final answer to the age-old question: Nothing matters as much as the brand, unless when something else matters. You want to write that down.

Tesla is one of the ten highest rated car brands in America, says the Consumer Reports 2012 Car-Brand Perception Survey. Is that a good thing? Marketers are troubled by this development. The trouble is not that a newcomer like Tesla is rated so highly.

Overall, the halos of the top brands are fading fast.

Toyota, Ford, Honda, and Chevrolet, perennial leaders in the survey, maintained their top positions but have seen the points gap decrease. Most of the top brands saw double-digit drops in their total scores. Which allows smaller companies to catch up.

At the turn of the millennium, people in highly developed countries started to tire of brands. Words like “brand blase”, “anti-brand” and “reverse snobism” made the rounds. It started with fashion, where the display of fancy labels became gauche, and low priced outlets like H&M or Uniqlo became cool. Cars were one of the last areas where brands made a difference. Now it seems to be their turn.

“Overall, the car-brand leaders do not stand out from the pack the way they did only a couple years ago,” says the study. Toyota continues to dominate overall in brand perception, although it slipped a 17 points, compared with last year’s survey results. Other top brands, Ford, Honda, and BMW, likewise dropped more than 20 points. Cadillac and Chevrolet saw only single-digit decreases.

America’s Top Car Brands 2012

America’s Worst Car Brands 2012

There was ample hand-wringing when Volvo announced the death of their iconic station wagon in North America. While enthusiasts mourned the death of a cult classic, Volvo also announced a plug-in hybrid version of their V60 wagon, powered by a diesel engine and a hybrid drivetrain. Naturally, this vehicle was not destined for sale in North America.

The non-available V60 plug-in constituted the ultimate slap in the face for the Volvo faithful. Here was the newest generation of Volvo wagon (as opposed to the warmed over XC70 offered recently) with an environmental bent and the Euro-cachet of a diesel engine – but where was it? As Jamie Kitman of Automobile magazine rightfully pointed out, their core buyer is “green” but refusing to import such a vehicle may not be “lunacy”, because the Swedes have something more suited for American tastes – the same hybrid goodness, packaged as a gasoline-powered crossover.

Rather than the V60 diesel-hybrid, North Americans are being treated to a plug-in hybrid based on the XC60. Set to be unveiled at the North American International Auto Show next week, the XC60 plug-in will use a 280 horsepower 4-cylinder gasoline engine and a 70 horsepower electric motor for a total output of 350 horsepower. The gasoline engine will drive the front wheels, while the electric motor will power the rear wheels. Volvo claims that the vehicle can be driven in electric mode for up to 35 miles and return up to 50 mpg. Stefan Jacoby, Volvo’s CEO, noted that the gasoline powered version will be an important car for China and Russia as well as the United States, as this likely has as much to do with the crossover body style as it does the gasoline engine.

On a personal note, my folks bought an XC60 T6 this summer, and I have spent ample time in it. While perpetually ignored in the marketplace, the XC60 is a car I’m fond of, with a powerful engine, a well-appointed cabin and good driving dynamics. At the time of purchase, I urged my parents to look at the XC70 T6, but it cost a few thousand dollars more and offered little appreciable difference to them. If a couple of upper-middle class car enthusiasts saw little value in opting for a wagon over a crossover, then what chance would a station wagon have with more conventional buyers, who are likely to be even more image-conscious and resistant to the idea of a wagon? On the other hand, my parents have a 5.4 mile commute through a downtown core to their office, and something like this would be right up their alley. Hopefully pricing won’t be so exorbitant that it cancels out any economic benefit for buying the XC60 plug-in.

Once upon a time, the Dodge brand was brimming with pride. In the mid-to-late 1990s, Dodge had it all: affordable compacts, big front-drive cruisers, the hottest trucks on the market, and of course, the Viper. And when the times were good, all of those part melded into one brash, exciting, quintessentially American brand. From Neons and Intrepids, from Rams to Vipers, Dodge could do it all, as long as “it all” included a healthy dash of in-your-face attitude. But over the years, as Dodge’s shining moment faded into memory, the brand has managed to become both less viscerally appealing and less well-rounded. And when Fiat’s leadership stripped Dodge of the Ram “brand,” shucked its designs of their truckish cues, and repositioned Dodge as a more “youthful” and “refined” sporting brand, it seemed as if Dodge as we knew it was dying. Since hearing of Fiat’s plans to bring Alfa stateside, and with Dodge appearing to have lost out in brand alignment product battles, we’ve been wondering for some time now if Dodge isn’t headed out to pasture. Now there’s even more evidence that Dodge is being hollowed out en route to replacement with Alfa, as Automotive News [sub] reports

Absent from the redesigned SRT Viper will be the name Dodge… Viper has been linked to Dodge since the Dodge Viper RT/10 concept debuted in 1989. The first Dodge Viper SRT-10 went on sale in 1992, and over the years 28,056 Vipers were produced, according to Chrysler.

Not any more. Essentially, SRT becomes a brand with its own vehicle, in this case the SRT Viper.

That’s right, Dodge won’t have a Viper or a Ram (or, more prosaically, an Avenger or Caravan). Some might argue that, absent these components, the Dodge name doesn’t mean much of anything anymore. Certainly it doesn’t seem that Dodge can have a particularly bright future without any links to its last moment of glory.

Chrysler Group insists that the branding shift has nothing, NOTHING, to do with any elimination of the Dodge brand. In the words of a Chrysler Group spokesman,

SRT is the high-performance end of the company. The whole brand philosophy and the branding separation between Dodge and SRT will evolve over time. This is kind of that first step establishing what SRT means to the company and what that car means to the brand.

The other side of the company’s argument: the Dodge brand has “baggage” in some global markets, and by branding it as an SRT, the Viper can have a unified global brand and be sold (theoretically) at Alfa and Maserati stores. On the downside, these kinds of sleight-of-brand moves don’t tend to fool anybody, and more to the point, how many consumers know anything about the SRT “brand”? But all that aside, the mere existence of an SRT brand seems to trade off directly with Dodge’s continued success. After all, without trucks or performance halos, what exactly is Dodge again? And with Dodge’s post-Fiat-takeover brand boss Ralph Gilles jumping from Dodge to SRT, it seems that the corporate winds are blowing the once-proud Dodge brand towards oblivion. Perhaps Alfa will ultimately prove to be the more compelling performance brand, but in the short term, Fiat-Chrysler seems to be trading in one potentially strong brand for two relative unknowns.

Lotus is one of those brands that every auto enthusiast loved to lionize, despite (or possibly because of) the fact that it hasn’t made a profit for its owner, Proton, in 15 years. But now things are changing. Lotus itself is in the midst of a makeover, seeking to transition from niche sports- and track-car company to a Ferrari and Porsche-rivaling aspirational brand. Meanwhile, back in Malaysia, its owner, Proton, is undergoing a few changes itself. Having been founded as a state-backed business, Proton may soon be privatized, reports Bloomberg. And as a result, Protons private investors could push for a quick divestment of the firm’s Lotus holdings. One such investor, Gan Eng Peng of HwangDBS Investment Management, tells Bloomberg

It will make sense for them to sell it. Proton and Lotus are not a good fit. They are in different market segments, both in terms of geography and product.

Chinese automaker SAIC and Genii Capital have been rumored as possible buyers, although Proton denies all rumors that Lotus is for sale. The problem is that Lotus won’t be worth much until 2014, the brand’s earliest projected break-even date. And even then, Bloomberg’s analysis shows that Lotus’s highest possible value then still wouldn’t be enough to return Proton to profitability, in light of increased competition in its home market of Malaysia. But in the meantime, Proton has no (useful) synergies with Lotus, and as the automaker emerges from the warm embrace of government ownership into the harsh light of the global market, it seems that selling off Lotus may be unavoidable.

Which leads to an interesting question: which automaker seems most likely to buy up Lotus? My money is on VW, who might buy the brand for no other reason than to kill off Alfa, after Fiat refused to sell. Of course, then it might create branding challenges with Porsche, but Alfa would have done so anyway. Another possible buyer: Toyota, which supplied Lotus with engines for years. In any case, we can probably count GM out of the picture, after their abortive relationship with the British brand.

To be clear, we aren’t talking about the next brand to linger on long past its kill-by date, pitting the brand loyalty of its fans against common sense for an agonizing eternity. No, now that Saab is dead and its warranty coverage has been suspended [per Automotive News [sub]], Saabophiles need an alternative. TTAC commenter Pig_Iron writes:

Now that SAAB is gone, who is the new SAAB? By that I mean, who makes the best winter handling front driver in coupe, sedan and wagon avail with man trans?

Your pal,

Pig_Iron

My answer: Buick’s Regal. It’s a rebadged Opel, available in several states of turbo tune, it’s got a distinctively European feel inside (firm seats, dark cockpit), and a fine-handling front-drive chassis. What more could you want from a Saab? On the other hand, what Saabista is going to buy from GM now that The General has cruelly slain mercifully euthanized their beloved brand [PDF on the definitive causes of death here]? So, if GM is out… possibly some kind of Volvo? An Audi? What say you, Best And Brightest?

Hyundai has a new and extremely successful spokesman. He is well-known, he can speak about cars with more authority than a football player. Best of all: He works pro bono. It is Volkswagen’s CEO Martin Winterkorn. With a low-cost video, Winterkorn catapulted Hyundai’s image to formerly unknown heights.

The German magazine Wirtschaftswoche reports that the image of Hyundai took a leap a few days after Martin Winterkorn walked over to the Hyundai stand at the Frankfurt motor show and praised the non-rattling steering column.The candid camera video went viral on Youtube. Says Wirtschaftswoche:

“In the days after the show, the image of Hyundai improved considerably. In the beginning of September, its brandindex score was at -25. A few days later, it climbed to -14, at least for a while. The brand still remains a bit weakly positioned, however, it is interesting that the brand score improved especially in the eyes of internet-savvy social media users.”

The measurements are by YouGov.com and refer to the German market only. We have not seen the study.  Still, Winterkorn’s handlers haven’t learned. You’d think they are watching his back for people with cameras. No, they don’t. At the Tokyo Motor Show, I (video wall, blue shirt next to potted plant, face covered by camera) sat right behind Winterkorn, with recording devices at the ready. I overheard nothing of interest .

There were no cars of the competition to talk about – it was at Volkswagen’s own show.

China might be going on a deadly brand binge as Bertel prognosticated. Here is a new brand that at least is worth a look: Qoros. It is a joint venture between Chery Automotive and Quantum LLC from Israel. The joint venture had been approved way back in 2007, but things slowed down soon after that – in 2008. Now they are back, with a very first concept car that looks – well, it looks like a cow.

Qoros wants to make high-quality cars to compete with the likes of Acura, Luxus, Infiniti, Volvo, and ultimately the German Three. Cars will be made for China and for export to Europe. No clear plans yet for export to the US or other markets.

The factory is based in the great city of Changshu in Jiangsu province. The R&D Center is in Shanghai, perhaps not a single well-paid designer would ever go to a place called Changshu. Quantum and Chery have to far invested 3.40 billion yuan, or 534 million US dollar. Engines will be newly designed by the Austrian company AVL and made in China by Chery.

An ambitious plan it is. But we like ambitious plans. Furthermore, Qoros managed to hire some hot shots.

1. as vice president: Volker Steinwascher, former Executive Vice President for Volkswagen North America (center on pic).

2. as chief designer: Gert Hildebrand, designer of the original new-Mini. Left.

3. as President and CEO: Guo Qian from Chery. You guessed it.

The cars: the weird looking cow car previews a compact sedan that has to hit the market in 2013. Next up is a compact hatchback, followed by an SUV, and followed again by some ‘EV products’. We will shall wait and see.

Dutchman Tycho de Feyter runs Carnewschina, a blog about cars in China, from Beijing, China. He also collects die-cast models of Chinese cars.

Tweet! Tweet! Tweet! If you have enough followers on Twitter and the like, Chevrolet might give you a free 2012 Sonic. Not for keeps. But for 3 days. It’s the new long-term tester of the 140 character age.

According to Automotive News [sub], General Motors has hired Klout, a company that ranks a person’s “social influence.” Well, social networking influence. In the past, people with high Klout scores received free review copies of software, deodorant, or coffee. Now, they get a car.

To be eligible, you need a “Klout score” of at least 35. It’s probably too late to prostitute yourself for followers, AN says the program already began in November and runs through Dec. 14. follows a collaboration earlier this year promoting the Volt, Chevy’s $40,000 plug-in hybrid.

139 (gee, why not 140???) drives will be offered in Chicago, New York, Atlanta, Dallas and San Francisco. All it costs GM is four or five Sonics on loan in each of the five cities.

The twitterati better be careful. A Federal Trade Commission guideline requires bloggers and social-media agents to disclose when writing about products they’ve gotten for free. It’s nice that the FTC has followed an example TTAC has set since day one.

Sometimes, there are perks in this business. Yesterday, I had the biggest perk so far: I saw a  $375,000 (base) supercar in the nude. And I could ask the man who built the LFA what he was thinking. He thinks the LFA could change Lexus as we know it.

Haruhiko Tanahashi is the Chief Engineer of the Lexus LFA, the storied supercar, population 500. A Chief Engineer at Toyota and hence at Lexus is much more than an engineer. He is the father of the car, he is responsible for the car from idea to realization and optimization.

A lot has already been written about the LFA. I wanted to know only one thing: Why?

Why build a car that is limited to 500 units, which are beyond the reach of a mere mortal? Will the LFA remain an exotic  island, or will its technology filter down into the whole Lexus line?

Yes it will, and it already does, says Tanahashi:

“Sure, there will be direct technology transfers to all Lexus lines. For instance  carbon, engine efficiency and more. But the most important cross pollination is not the car itself, it is the thought process behind the car. That thought process could change the philosophy of Lexus 180 degrees.”

Tanahashi gives just one example that is indicative of what may happen to the Lexus brand, should the ideas behind the LFA prove communicable:

“In the past, the engine sound has always been something we were trying to suppress. We were trying to remove all sounds from the car. I was told and I told my people: Sounds are bad, sounds are bad, sounds are bad. Especially the engine sound. We used to want that as quiet as possible.

What is different with the LFA is that you hear the music of the engine, and it has a beautiful sound. People want to hear that sound.

That is one example that you will be seeing – well, hearing – in other Lexus cars in the future.”

When Tanahashi and his team developed the LFA, they worked with Yamaha. Not only with Yamaha, the engine builders. They worked with the musical instrument builders at Yamaha. They turned the LFA into a musical instrument. Not a synthesizer that plays sampled engine sound. They turned the LFA into a veritable wind instrument.

Tanahashi’s Deputy Chief Engineer Chiharu Tamura demonstrates this for me on the most unusual LFA I had ever seen (not that I have seen many): A naked, disrobed LFA. They removed the outer skin of the car so that all that is inside can be seen and touched.

In the LFA, the air rushes into an opening on the engine side of the firewall. The air enters an echo chamber in the dash, and sound is emitted though small openings in the dashboard.

In addition, there is a membrane behind the engine computer that creates sound as the air rushes across the rear of the car.

Of course there was another question that needed to be asked, and that is the question of the Nürburgring Nordschleife lap time. Currently, the LFA lap time stands at 7 minutes, 14:64 seconds, which is “very fast” as Tanahashi states, and do I honestly want more?

Then the Chief Engineer kicks in, and Tanahashi feeds me the company line that nobody wants to set a record on the Nordschleife. Driving there is done solely in the name of science and testing, to optimize the ride, to make it handle well, and the 7 minutes, 14:64 seconds are simply a result of this test.

There must be a secret cue card which is used by all manufacturers, because they all say the same: “Record? Us? On the Nürburgring? What record?”

I roll my eyes so fast that I become dizzy.

Then slowly, a smile unfolds in Tanahashi’s face, he leans forward, lowers his voice, and says:

“My test driver Akira Iida says that from his point of view,  we can reach 7:12. He thinks it’s possible. Of course, that is strictly his own private opinion.”

Of course it is.

TTAC has long been bearish on the Scion brand, and in a lot of ways, Toyota’s global tri-branding strategy with its new “86″ sportscar (Toyota, Subaru and Scion versions are being sold) highlights how Toyota has lost its branding focus. On the other hand, the FR-S, Scion’s version of the 86, is by far the most compelling product that brand has offered… well, possibly ever (OK, since the Mk1 xB). If I were king of Toyota, I’d probably still kill off Scion and sell the 86 as a Celica in the US… after all, how much sense does it make to have two sporty coupes at Scion and none for the Toyota brand? But if Scion follows the FR-S up with a new truly compact pickup co-developed with Daihatsu, as has been rumored, I’d be willing to concede that Scion has a place in the market. After all, truly unique, funky vehicles justified Scion’s existence in the first place, before a watered-down second generation of products killed that positioning (and Scion’s sales). With the FR-S, Scion seems to be heading back towards focused and freaky niche confections… let’s hope it continues to return to those roots.

A TTAC tipster sent us a Teknikens Värld  interview with Saab’s long-suffering would-be rescuer, Victor Muller, in which the eternal Saabtimist seems ready to admit defeat. In essence, he admits that GM is unlikely to ever approve a plan involving Chinese firms, that the Chinese firms are throwing “money into a black hole” and that all the previous plans are off the table. Of course, Muller does seem to think that some kind of rescue may yet be possible, but he admits

If I doze off Saab would disappear in an instant

If Muller is losing faith, and doesn’t even have a hairbrained scenario to hype, it seems that the end may well be near. But then, the whole rescue of Saab is beginning to be eclipsed by questions about Muller’s erstwhile partner, Vladimir Antonov, who was recently bailed out of British jail, where he was being held on charges of embezzlement and document forgery. But first, to the Muller interview…

The following is an interview titled “Muller Does Not Believe In Th Chinese”:

Victor Muller doubts that GM will ever accept a Chinese Saab business. According to him, Youngman, Pang Da and Guy Lofalk sabotaged the whole business when they went from the original plan. It says Muller in an exclusive interview with the Teknikens Värld.

On the way home from Britain hits Teknikens Värld Erik Gustafsson, an unusually outspoken Victor Muller. The gate at Heathrow Airport, the plane to Stockholm, he says frank about Saab’s situation.

- This is how it goes when you put his partner in the back, says Muller continues:

- The deal was long time and the arrangement with a Chinese shareholding of 54 per cent was approved. Then began administrator Guy Lofalk run government affairs, to persuade the Chinese to a 100-percent ownership stake and GM slammed on the brakes.

Late yesterday evening, Swedish time, had GM in Detroit, a further meeting on Saab’s future, but Victor Muller strongly doubt one acceptance.

- I understand GM fully, it is clear that they do not want to jeopardize its market in China. But right now I understand the other side is not why the Chinese continue to pump money into the company. As the situation is, it just means to put money into a black hole, without getting anything back. The relationship with GM is so damaged that they (Youngman and Pang Da) can not even go back to the original plan.

While he acknowledges that the situation is tough, he means that there is a solution. He can not tell you how it looks, but he promises to fight till the end.

- If I doze off Saab would disappear in an instant

Muller may still be fighting for Saab’s future, but as prosecutors unwind the Vladimir Antonov situation, Muller could soon be forced out of the process. After all, Muller is said to have a personal debt to Antonov of upwards of €100m, and it seems highly likely that Antonov was using Muller to launder funds embezzled from his Baltic banks. Antonov ‘s sports business has been placed into bankruptcy, and he has stepped down as Chairman of the British soccer team Portsmouth, reports ESPN. And Latvian officials seem to be clear on the Saab connection as well, as the Moscow Times reports

Latvian officials on Wednesday said about 100 million lats ($200 million) was stripped out of Latvyas Kraybank to fund Antonov’s investment projects, including the ill-fated Saab bid.

And the investigation is ongoing, as BBC reports that

[Lithuanian prosecutors] said they were investigating everything that might have links to criminal offences.

They added they would be taking “all the necessary steps” to freeze assets belonging to Mr Antonov and Mr Baranauskas.

It seems inevitable that this investigation will eventually catch up to Muller, at which point he’ll have to plead ignorance of Antonov’s alleged crimes. And even if Muller does escape prosecution, his ability to organize a deal to save Saab will be fundamentally compromised by his association with Antonov. And as Muller himself says,

If I doze off Saab would disappear in an instant

The countdown continues…

Wintertime is coming, mama, the windows are filled with frost. So I went over to the nearby strip mall to get some thermal underwear. That doesn’t rhyme even half as well as Dylan’s most forced rhymes, but it’s really what happened. There’s a C.W. Price store in the mall. It used to be a location of the A.J. Wright chain that went under, and from the looks of things, all they needed to change were the signs. C.W. Price carries pretty much the same overstocked and distressed merchandise as A.J. Wright. Not quite as depressing as shopping at Big Lots but definitely not the Somerset Collection. While I was at the store of course I had to check out the cheap R/C cars that they had on sale for $6.99 and $7.99 with the other Christmas toys. At first glance they looked like Ferraris, Lamborghinis, Bugattis and Ford GTs. Actually, at second and third glance they still looked like those cars, scale models accurate down to the Veyron’s distinctive black hood, horseshoe Bugatti grille and exposed mid-mounted W16 engine.

Not-a-Bugatti

Nowhere, though, do the words “Ferrari”, “Lamborghini”, “Bugatti”, or “Ford” or those companies’ badging appear anywhere on the R/C cars or on the packaging. In some unintentional irony filtered through the joys of “Chinglish”, the Ford GT does have a decal at the top of the windshield that reads “FAMOUS CAR”.

Can I write anything funnier than reality?

Welcome to the wonderful of Chinese manufacturing where out the front door your vendor sells you your patented or licensed goods and out their back door they sell essentially the same products, only without branding, to dollar store distributors. It’s not a new story. Years ago Georgena Terry, founder of Terry Precision Bicycles for Women, found knock offs of her patented woman’s bike saddle on sale in the US that, based on the molding markings, had to have been made by her own supplier in China.

Legitimate Lamborghini? 

My guess is that something similar happened with these R/C cars. Xiangda Toys Factory, and Hunson Trading Co. are the brand names on the toys. What little that I could find out about the companies is that Xiangda makes R/C toys and the Hunson distributes R/C toys and other toys to dollar stores in North and South America. The Hunson labeled toys carry the XTR brand, which I’m guessing stands for Xiangda Toy Racing.

Here’s what I think is going on. If Xiangda or Hunson want to reply, we’ll give them an opportunity to do so. I think that Xiangda is the manufacturer and the Hunson is the distributor of all of these, regardless of how the specific toys are branded. On the multitudinous Chinese goods trading sites, you can find Hunson offering toys branded with names like Lamborghini so it’s possible that one or both of the companies has a legitimate license to make scale models. The toys could be complete knock offs, but they appeared, as I said, to be fairly accurate in terms of body shape, so they just as likely could have been molded with tooling made to produce licensed goods. I’m guessing that someone thought that they could make a few extra yuan by diverting some goods to market without the additional cost of paying a royalty fee.

There appears to be little risk. After all, this is being done in plain sight. Since they don’t sell the cars branded with the real car company names, as long as those brand names never appear on shipping manifests or customs documents nobody will ever be the wiser. Bugatti, Ferrari and Lamborghini’s licensing agents and lawyers don’t typically shop in stores like C.W. Price. Ford’s lawyers might have driven by the Price store on Telegraph in Redford, on their way to the Glass House in Dearborn, but again, they’re not likely shopping for their kids’ toys at dollar stores and deep discounters. Though it’s likely to be under the radar of white shoe law firms and their clients, dollar stores and deep discounters are still big business. There are over 20,000 stores operated by the three largest dollar store chains. Licensing deals typically pay 7-12% of wholesale prices as royalties. That means that for every one of these R/C cars that are distributed, somewhere between 25 and 50 cents doesn’t get paid to a car company that is rightfully theirs. That may not sound like much but when you consider that these toys are shipped over by the container load the IP infringement from quasi knock offs like these must represent significant sums of unpaid royalties.

Scale model radio control Fauxrrari

Of course, these days cars’ shapes are protected under intellectual property laws just as surely as Ferrari’s prancing horse and Lamborghini’s pawing bull are protected trademarks. My day gig is custom machine embroidery and I’ve gotten cease and desist letters from car companies unhappy about my embroidery designs that portray their cars. They were overreaching but it seems to me that while artists and photographers might have some leeway and fair use rights to create original art depicting a protected car design, there’s no doubt that if a car’s shape is copyrighted, making and selling scale models of that car would be infringing on the car company’s intellectual property, with or without a logo decal.

It happens with race cars too. When A.J. Wright was still in business, during the holiday season they’d sell R/C Formula One cars that looked just like the Ferrari and McLaren F1 cars, down to the coloring of the sponsors’ decals. Only if you looked closely the sponsors’ names were close but actually fictional, and nowhere did it say the team names or F1. It reminded me of a store that would advertise selling “names like Hitachi and Sansui” and when you get there they are selling knock off brands named Hatichi and Sunsai.

This isn’t going to stop. As long as there’s a market for quasi knockoffs and as long as the Chinese government and Chinese industries benefit from those knock offs they will continue to be made. If General Motors couldn’t get Chery to stop making the QQ, a copy of a real car, Ford isn’t going to get Xiangda to stop making scale model Famous Cars.

In China, a “sub-brand” is a brand under a foreign-Chinese joint venture. Examples: Venucia under Dongfeng-Nissan, or Everus under Guangzhou-Honda. (Bertel insists that “sub-brand” is a misnomer, but TIC, This Is China, and he better get used to it.)

The Chinese central government ordered the joint ventures to start the sub-brands. “Order” is maybe too harsh a word, let’s call it strong recommendation. Resistance by the foreign partner is futile. If the foreign partner would ignore the wishes of the Chinese government, life would suddenly become very difficult. Applications for new factories, new cars, new permits, new visa for employees, etc etc, would suddenly be delayed or outright refused.

Why does the Chinese government want the sub-brands? Two words: intellectual property (IP). In a joint venture, the IP stays with the foreign partner. The Chinese partner sure can learn from the foreign partner’s knowledge, but cannot use the IP without permission from the foreign partner. If the Chinese partner wants to use platforms or engines for their own cars, like FAW for the Besturn B90 based on the Mazda 6, it has to pay the foreign partner.

This greatly annoys the central Chinese government who wants its mostly state-owned companies to have their own IP so they can make cars that can compete on the world market. The whole joint venture rules were created by the central Chinese government to do just that: learn from the foreigners >> built your own cars >> compete with the foreigners.

But, thanks to IP-regulations and the fact that Chinese state-owned companies have been terribly slow to learn anything, the scheme did not work out. The central Chinese government had to force things around and that is were the sub-brand come into play.

The sub-brand is legally considered to be 100% Chinese. That means all the IP that is pumped into the sub-brand is 100% Chinese as well.  It is now owned by the joint venture. Also, there are no more license fees for the brand and the model. The joint-venture plan was about learning and didn’t work, the sub-brand plan is basically a legalized way of taking – at least half.

The foreign makers however are not stupid. They don’t want to annoy the Chinese government, and they also don’t want to hand over their newest IP’s. But they don’t mind to hand over some old IP is that is good enough to make everybody happy.

It seems good enough, for now. Let’s have a look.  The Dongfeng-Nissan Venucia D60 is an old Nissan Tiida. Guangzhou-Honda Everus S1 is an old Honda City. The upcoming FAW-Volkswagen Kaili is based on the New Bora which is noting more than an ancient old Bora in new clothes. The upcoming Dongfeng-Honda Ciimo is based on the old Honda Civic. The yet nameless sub-brand from Chang’an-Mazda will use an old Mazda 3. The planned and yet nameless sub-brand from the Chang’an-Ford joint venture will use the old Ford Focus as its first car. The only exception might be Shouwang from Beijing-Hyundai which came up with a fancy concept car at the Guangzhou Auto Show. It is however very unlikely that their real car will be anything but an old Elantra.

So what do we have?

A bunch of old cars that have to be sold under brand-new brand-names. Who will buy? Nobody will, especially because the sub-brand cars are not exactly cheap. The only one on the market right now is the Everus S1. It costs 69.800 yuan, a new Fit costs only 91.300 yuan. It will be mostly the same story with the other sub-brands. Furthermore, Chinese car buyers don’t know the brands, there aren’t many dealers yet, people are unsure about service and in general unsure how long all those new brands will stay on the market. All taken together: hopeless.

The joint ventures will make no money with the sub-brands. Fortunately, their direct investments were not very high, basically not much more than designing a new logo, the cars and factories were already there. Still, the whole exercise takes a lot of time, resources and factory space that all could have been used to make new cars that do sell.

The Chinese government will only get some old IP out of it. Sure, better than nothing, but hardly good enough to ‘compete in the world market’. For now and the near future, the sub-brand scheme seems doomed;.

Things depend on the next step of the central Chinese government. Will they leave it here and give up? In that case, the sub-brands will die quickly. Or, will they give it another shot and force the foreign partners again, this time to inject newer IP in the sub-brands? In that case, it can get very messy because it seems sure the foreign partners think they have gone far enough already.

To be continued …

Dutchman Tycho de Feyter runs Carnewschina, a blog about cars in China, from Beijing, China. He also collects die-cast models of Chinese cars.

Chrysler’s latest “Imported From Detroit” ad, which seems to be trying to convince itself to “see it through,” continues the brand’s recent tradition of associating itself (perhaps a bit too closely) with the trials and tribulations of the city of Detroit. That approach, like the 300 itself, might play well in parts of the US market… but Chrysler needs its cars (and ads) to do more. Imagine how this ad might go over in Berlin or Milan, and you might catch a glimpse of Chrysler’s larger challenge: making its cars relevant globally as both Chryslers and Lancias.

Chrysler’s marketing honcho Olivier Francois may think that Chrysler and Lancia combine to create a “superbrand,” but of course it’s not that easy.

After all, what on earth says Lancia about the new barely-disguised “Thema”? It seems that Mr Olivier was filled with the “see it through” spirit when he claimed that the two brands were a perfect match: necessity, not compatibility made the marriage between Chrysler and Lancia. And considering they combined for less volume than Alfa in the European market through the first three quarters of this year, it’s pretty clear that this shotgun marriage isn’t going much of anywhere. And no wonder: in the words of Robert Verganti, a management professor at Milan Polytechnic [via Bloomberg]

It’s extremely difficult to succeed in a strategy of globalizing design. The risk is making international cars with no personality. When you buy a Lancia, you are looking for a piece of Italy, and when you choose a Chrysler, you are getting a slice of America.

Which is why Fiat’s former Ferrari, Maserati and Alfa designer, Lorenzo Ramaciotti, has taken the lead on the Chrysler-Lancia branded design portfolio. If anyone is going to find designs that simultaneously says “Chrysler” and “Lancia,” it’s the guy who designed the Quattroporte, GranTourismo, F430, and Alfa 4C Concept… right? Says Ramaciotti

We are trying to find an international language, which could have a place both here in Italy and in the U.S. If you put all the models into the showroom, they must fit together. It’s a delicate problem. We don’t want to do pure badge-engineering; it has never worked well in the long runWe should be global in sharing platforms and strategies without dulling the product line.”

Well, if nothing else, there’s the proof we finally need that the only people who think rebadging can work are marketers with nothing else in their bag of tricks. In all seriousness, the fact that Fiat-Chrysler has someone with that perspective leading global Chrysler/Lancia design can only be a good sign. After all, I may not be a big fan of Mr Ramaciotti’s Maserati Kubang SUV, but at least it doesn’t look like a rebadge. Although speaking of the Kubang, Bloomberg’s conversation with Ramaciotti does bring up one other point that the old designer might not be able to do anything about: the fact that Chrysler’s large cars and SUVs may not sell well as Lancias regardless of their designs.

“People are coming into the showroom to have a look,” said Roberto Ferrari, who owns a Lancia dealer outside Milan. “Reactions are good. The Thema is pretty, design is attractive for Italians, too, but no one is buying these kinds of cars now,” because the debt crisis calls for understatement.

Lancia’s real problem is that 90% of its sales come from the next country in the Euro sovereign debt crisis line of fire. In that environment, any Lancia is going to face sales challenges, let alone a large, Chrysler-derived Lancia. With Europe reaping the whirlwind economically, perhaps now is the time for Fiat-Chrysler to bite the bullet, drop its weakest brand, and let Mr Ramaciotti get to work designing, passionate, lust-worthy Chryslers. Better to concentrate on creating Chryslers that are appealing the world over than to fret over how to Americanize European cars for Chrysler and Europeanize American cars for Lancia.

With today’s official confirmation that Fiat’s US market brand boss, Laura Soave, has been replaced by Timothy Kuniskis, there’s more than a little attention being paid to the Fiat 500′s stateside sales and marketing. Which is something of a curious state of affairs; after all, when the 500 was introduced to Europe, it was quite well-received by the press and public. In hopes of tracking down some kind of explanation for this discrepancy, I hit Youtube looking for ads introducing the Fiat 500 to European markets. The first spot I found can be seen above, and it encapsulates how I feel the 500 probably should have been introduced to the US: with one simple, smart, timeless ad. Instead we got a flurry of disjointed, uncoordinated efforts, with Jennifer Lopez eventually dominating the Cinquecento‘s image almost by default. Could this explain why the 500′s US sales have disappointed?

If so, it’s not entirely clear that Ms Soave is to blame for the debacle. Here, she talks up precisely the values encapsulated in the immensely successful UK ad, and shows off some print ads that seem to deliver similarly timeless messages. But remind me again, who reads print ads? As for the entire “drive-in” concept, I’d hazard that idea had its genesis with Impatto, the since-dumped, event-focused marketing firm that helped lead the 500 launch. Clearly it was not the memorable TV ad that the 500 needed, and clearly Soave should have thought twice about an event-focused launch, especially one centered on such a spurious “urban fad.” But the “drive-in” ads were merely weak; what has dominated perceptions of the 500 in the US is Jennifer Lopez.

And, as we’ve mentioned before, the celeb-happy, J.Lo-synonimizing aspect of the campaign apparently came from Chrysler’s marketing honcho Olivier Francois, not Soave. Back in September, when Fiat was dumping Impatto, AdAge reported

“I respect what she [Ms. Soave] did so far. I may have my opinions about the brand, and they are well known so I’m not going to get into anything here,” said Mr. Francois. “But when you are working with limited resources, you have to invent some out-of-the-box stuff which I am trying to do.”

One out-of-the-box play was working with Ms. Lopez on what former auto-marketing exec Peter DeLorenzo called “quite possibly the worst automotive spot of the last decade, hands down.” Mr. Francois defended the push and said it was not a commercial at all but rather a “trailer” for Ms. Lopez’s new video for the single “Papi.” Mr. Francois said it came about after a discussion he and his friend Ms. Lopez had with her manager Benny Medina, in which they talked about having the Fiat 500 used as the car featured in the chase sequence of the video. Afterward, Mr. Francois said he asked Mr. Medina for the footage and said Fiat would put together a 30-second trailer for the video

Francois is already well-known for his commitment to unabashedly over-the-top marketing, including the Eminem “Imported From Detroit” ads, which do seem to have been more effective than the J.Lo experiment. At the time he defended early negative reaction to the initial Lopez shot by calling it a “trailer.” Of course, the reaction hasn’t improved with the full ads, and negativity hit a breaking point last night, in the wake of Lopez’s 500-themed AMA performance. Clearly Francois’ gamble on Lopez’s starpower has fallen flat, and it would be shocking to see any further collaboration between the two…. and yet Soave, who apparently has had nothing to do with the Lopez decision, is the one being replaced. Why? Well, Francois is close to the big boss, Sergio Marchionne, and worked with him well before the Chrysler takeover. Don’t believe the J.Lo ads had Francois’s French fingers all over them? Check out this Lancia spot he approved a few years back:

In fact, using celebrities on the cheap is something of a well-worn tactic for Francois. AdAge explains

Mr. Francois coyly said he does not like to use “spokespeople.” But his two ever-present BlackBerrys run deep with celebrities who have appeared in his ads: Carla Bruni Sarkozy, Richard Gere and even the Dalai Llama. Of those, only Mr. Gere took a fee, and it was for his charity. Even Eminem sold Chrysler rights to his song for 20% of what he could have gotten just to be part of the ad. Oscar-winning actor Adrien Brody directed a Chrysler ad late last year, his commercial directing debut, and voiced the ad as well.

That might work passably when your job is to cheaply up the image of staid, older brands like Chrysler or Lancia. When it comes to launching a unique, fashion-forward car like the 500, you have to let the car speak for itself. As Soave herself put it, “the car is always the hero.” Too bad she failed to explain that to her bosses.

After an early downturn in sales, it appeared that Fiat might be distancing its 500 from the Jennifer Lopez-dominated image that hasn’t been panning out so well. With the debut of the 500 Abarth at the LA Auto Show, the ad shown above kept the sex-factor high, but focused far more on the male market. Perhaps sensing a shift in direction, Bloomberg asked Fiat/Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne last week if the brand’s boss Laura Soave would be keeping her job despite the weak sales. Still undecided, Marchionne replied in the affirmative

For the time being.

That was last Wednesday. Over the weekend, something seems to have changed…

Last night, Ms Lopez beat back the perception that Fiat was trying to move on with its marketing, by featuring a Cinquecento Cabrio in her American Music Awards performance. We’ll let the performance speak for itself, but suffice it to say that Ms Lopez broke new ground in the commercialization of the AMAs, garnering considerable attention for both herself and Fiat… and it wasn’t all positive either. Criticism began when several music stars took to Twitter to call the product placement “shameless” among other things. Questlove of The Roots provided what may have been the most widespread reaction, tweeting

Yo. I know I didn’t just see that dumb Fiat. I KNOW I didn’t just see that friggin’ Fiat.

And of course the media piled on, saying the performance “destroyed whatever credibility she had left,” a “scene [that] could have been taken from the Detroit auto show,” “the most cringe-inducing, embarrassing performance of the night,” a “miscalculation,” and “a car ad crossed with a striptease.” Considering that Lopez’s 500 ads have already been fairly widely ridiculed, it’s safe to say that this was almost certainly the culmination of the Fiat/JLo collaboration.

And even if JLo isn’t booted from the Fiat 500 marketing effort, there will be changes. Bloomberg reports that

Chrysler Group LLC’s head of the Fiat brand in North America, Laura Soave, is leaving the company and being replaced by Tim Kuniskis, a marketing executive, a person familiar with the situation said.

Jalopnik reckons the firing has something to do with

unsubstantiated rumors for a couple months now from sources knowledgeable of internal Chrysler politics that she was being investigated for a possible improper relationship with Michael D’Antonio, the CEO of former Fiat ad agency Impatto Custom Marketing.

More likely: Fiat is abandoning the disastrous JLo-theme marketing, and initiating a clean reboot of Fiat’s entire ad and brand strategies. In any case, it’s certainly tough to argue that Soave has had any real success thus far. Now the question is: can Fiat take another shot at the market? Will the market give it another shot? Or will the 500 be forever associated with JLo and this abortive relaunch marketing effort?

We have been following this phenomenon for a while. Joint ventures in China create faux Chinese brands. Because? Because it’s the right thing to do, at least as far as the Chinese government is concerned. Officially, the reason for those fake Chinese brands is to make cars more affordable. Off the record, automakers roll their (slanted and round) eyes at this reasoning. A new brand doesn’t miraculously make a car more affordable. In the contrary. To establish a brand costs money. To establish dealer networks costs money. To build new cars costs money, even if they are on passé platforms. But you’ve got to do what China’s bureaucrats think you’ve got to do. Possibly, all these joint venture brands, from GM’s BaoJun on out, will end up in nice statistics that prove that homegrown Chinese brands are selling, and that exports are up.

Why the rant? Nissan and Dongfeng show the first production model of the faux Chinese Venucia brand at the Guangzhou auto show. It is a mid-class sedan, allegedly engineered at Dongfeng Nissan Technical Center,” it is called  D50 and will be introduced to the market in the first half of 2012.

Chinacartimes agrees with Carnewschina and most of China’s plentiful auto press that the car is a repackaged Nissan Tiida (a.k.a. Versa), down to the old 1.6 liter Tiida engine.

When the D50 launches in 2012, the plan is to have 100 exclusive Venucia dealers across China. Died-in-the-wool subscribers to Japanese production methods will shudder at the muda (waste, uselessness) of this operation: 100 new dealers, with only one car to sell. At least, “Venucia dealers plan to share parts of service operations with certified Nissan dealers.”

By 2015, the dealers will have more to do and sell, because “five new models will be launched under the Venucia brand by 2015.” By that time, Venucias will be sold through 250 dealers nationwide. Dongfeng Nissan is targeting annual sales of 300,000 units with these five models.

Back in Chengdu, Pangda’s Chairman Pang Qinghua also thought that these new Chinese brands are “muda,” or whatever the Chinese word for it may be. “Chinese customers expect to pay 20 percent less for Chinese brands. For foreign brands, they often pay above list just to get them early.”

Carnewschina  has pictures of the car taken at the show. Ours is from Nissan.

It’s no secret that Ferrari has been wrestling with the inevitable conflict between its bellowing V12s and European emission regulations, but that’s not the only challenge facing the Prancing Horse’s powertrain division. Sure, there’s the increasingly-tenuous link  between the Scuderia’s Formula One technology and its road cars [sub], but in the short term that actually helps the emissions issue by creating a pretext for bringing KERS to the road (where it otherwise has little role). In fact, the real issue for Ferrari’s powertrain team is not even a “Ferrari issue” at all, but a Maserati issue.

One of the keys to Maserati’s success as a brand, is the fact that its engines are supplied by Ferrari, a “secret” kept by precisely nobody and referenced in every Maserati review ever written. And considering that Ferrari has to limit its production to 7,000 units in order to maintain exclusivity, it’s not a bad way to build scale on such limited-production engines. The problem is this: with Ferrari unable to grow its volume (instead, focusing purely on profits), Maserati has to. Thus, the new plan to build 40,000 new Maseratis per year by 2014, up from 5,700 cars sold in 2010. About 20k units of that volume are expected to be Kubang SUVs, and the rest will come from two sedans that straddle the current Quattroporte. The Kubang will come with Maser’s 4.7 liter V8, and the two sedans will use direct-injected V6 twin-turbo or V8 engines, also developed and built by Ferrari. Maserati CEO Harald Wester tells evo Magazine (print edition)

Paolo Martinelli [Maserati's powertrain boss and a previous engine chief for the Ferrari F1 team] is developing these new engines right now in Maranello, and Ferrari will be producing them exclusively for Maserati.

And, admits Wester that will present some serious challenges, as Maserati is talking about a seven-fold increase in engine demand.

If we need 30,000 Ferrari engines, the project is different. The set-up is perfect in terms of quality, but Ferrari will have to do something significant to be able to supply us with the engines we will require in the future.

But how does Ferrari ramp up to make seven times as many engines without losing any quality or exclusivity? Here’s where the story gets strange, as evo reports

Ferrari is already investigating working double shifts in its engine plant as a way to increase production

…and that’s it. Now, I don’t know enough about Ferrari’s powertrain plant to know whether it’s possible to get seven times the volume by switching to a double shift, but it sure sounds like a challenge. And if nothing else, it certainly takes a little of the exclusivity out of the Ferrari brand. But then, a slightly-less exclusive Ferrari is probably more than worth it when you multiply Maserati’s profits margins by 40,000. In any case, we’ll be curious to see how Ferrari manages this situation going forward.

Refinements Signal Direction for Brand Today, Tomorrow.

Note to Lincoln: the future is not in refinements. If this brand is going to survive, it needs a clean sheet of paper.

Hyundai has been doing a lot of things right lately, but one thing they can’t do is keep a secret. TTAC showed you this car, known as the Grandeur in Korea, a year ago, warning “Buick beware.” Now that it’s arrived stateside, the threat is real and Azera is no longer the red-headed stepchild of the Hyundai family. Hyundai says the new Azera’s design was pursued following the same “fluidic sculpture” theme as Elantra and Sonata, rather than aping the Genesis and Equus’s more formal design language… although to our eyes it almost splits the difference between the two looks. Meanwhile, its 3.3 liter, 293 HP V6 separates it from its V6-free Sonata cousin, while still providing what Hyundai claims is “class leading” efficiency.

Hyundai Motor America CEO John Krafcik says they are transitioning Hyundai from a “Value brand” to a “Valuable brand” (yes, really), and this Azera is intended to help challenge cars like the Acura TL and Lexus ES as well as the Taurus and Avalon. And with no plans for new US production capacity, despite razor-thin inventories, moving the brand upmarket makes sense for Hyundai. And replacing the old dullard of an Azera was a crucial step in that direction.

Say what you want about Saab fans, the guys have some dedication. At a time when most have finally accepted the fact that Saab is at the end of the line, Saab’s hard-core “dead-enders” are taking up their social media arms to rescue their beloved brand. After all they have a perfect opportunity: after months of wading through a quagmire, uncertain whether to support Victor Muller, Vladimir Antonov, or one of Saab’s Chinese suitors, all Saab fans can now rally against their old enemy, GM. Long blamed for Saab’s decline despite the fact that the brand’s peak sales came under its ownership, GM has long been the bête noire for Saabistas. And with GM now taking the wheel of Saab’s fate, Saab’s rabid fans have taken over GM’s Facebook wall, posting images of their favorite Saabs and demanding The General “let Saab go.” Will it be enough to convince GM to go against its carefully-crafted Chinese relationships and interests by giving Saab carte blanche to ship its technology wherever its new Chinese masters want? Don’t count on it. But for the moment GM has to sit through the online equivalent of an “Occupy” protest.

I was not the only person to predict that the Fit 500 would enjoy strong initial sales and then flop as the novelty wore off… and I was half right! Sales climbed early, peaking at around 3k units per month this summer before dropping precipitously in September and October. In August were still wondering if the 500 could become a classic, but as of November 1, Fiat 500 inventory stood at a staggering 184 days. Now, Automotive News [sub] quotes UAW officials as saying that

Chrysler Group has suspended production this month of the 1.4-liter FIRE engine that powers the Fiat 500 in North America because of slow U.S. sales of the subcompact

One in four workers at the Dundee plant where that engine is made has been laid off according to the report, which is a pity considering Fiat got five percent of Chrysler in return for those US jobs. And keep in mind, this is happening at a time when anecdotal reports of Fiat 500s in rental fleets are beginning to become more common… the 500′s retail sales number is likely quite a bit lower than the gross volume numbers cited here. Nor do we know what kind of incentives are being used to push the 500 out the door. But despite all this, and the fact that the 500 will not sell the hoped-for 50,000 units in North America, Chrysler is keeping a brave (or is that delusional?) face on the situation, telling AN that it is

very pleased with the progress we are making with the North American launch of the Fiat brand.

Really? Really? Wait, hold up a moment, I predicted that too! Way back in November of 2009, I wrote

Fiat wants to use the 500 to consolidate its strong presence in Latin America, where small, 100 hp vehicles are more accepted. The majority of 500 production at Toluca, Mexico will go to Brazil and other Latin American countries, as a halo for the Fiat brand’s success there.

Meanwhile, in the US market, the 500 will be little more than an overpriced fashion accessory… Nobody, from Sergio Marchionne on down, cares if this car succeeds in the US except for the fashionista fanatics who will pay nearly any price for one.

It just turns out that there are fewer of those people left than anyone thought…