The Truth About Cars » GM Death Watch

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 222: The Truth Will Out

Ken Elias — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 13:30:28 +0000

If you need proof that GM's management hasn’t changed, consider the fact that the company is preparing not one but two rescue plans for Congress, The automaker claims it needs both a public plan and a top secret "for their eyes only" brief because sharing “proprietary information” in a public forum could be "problematic." Total hogwash. There is only one reason GM won't let the public view detailed information about its future-- it doesn't have one. With or without a look at the fine print, the truth remains: GM’s restructuring plan as presented to Congress will never work.

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 221: Why GM Should Stop Worrying And Learn to Love C11

Richard N. Tilton — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 03:20:14 +0000

Speculation is rife that GM plans on shutting down or selling Saab, Pontiac and/or another brand as a prelude to a federal bailout. Common sense and recent history suggest that any such move will create a raft of breach of contract claims by jilted dealers and suppliers. As Oldsmobile's demise proves, there's only one possible resolution to the resulting feeding frenzy: cash termination payments. If, however, GM filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, these breach of contract claims would become nothing more than unsecured claims-- which are resolved within the debtor's C11 reorganization. The claimants would be legally barred from costly state court litigation. In a stroke, GM would be transformed. How great is that? But wait, there's more!

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 220: My Kingdom For Your Debt

Ken Elias — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 16:42:32 +0000

Rick Wagoner lost control of General Motors this week. Forget about his title; game over for the embattled former Duke basketball wannabe. There's a new sheriff at GM - and it's a bunch of Wall Street guys that few on Main Street can name. It's the hedge funds that have been acquiring GM's bonds. So here's how these guys will play The General to make a killing on the pending government bailout:

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 219: Rrrrrrescue Pack!

Richard N. Tilton — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 03:52:57 +0000

In recent congressional testimony, GM admitted that its experts are "exploring" Chapter 11 reorganization. At the same time, GM continues to argue that a bankruptcy filing is the nuclear option-- it would vaporize jobs and inflict cataclysmic damage on the overall U.S. economy. While acknowledging the danger, many argue that reorganization is both necessary and unavoidable. They suggest that GM's recreation should somehow take place outside of the time-tested legal process known as Chapter 11. Sentiment is growing that a taxpayer-finnaced “prepackaged” Chapter 11 is the best way to solve both GM's business and financial problems, and perhaps of other automakers. Maybe so. Let's have a look...

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 218: Disconnect and Die

Robert Farago — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 16:10:24 +0000

When I moved to the UK, I was shocked by the price of petrol. “Britain’s an oil PRODUCING nation,” I kvetched to my accountant. “How could the populace allow their government to tax their petrol to the point where it’s the most expensive gas in Europe?” “Do you have any idea how much income tax you’re paying?” my personal pencil pusher asked. “If I were you, I wouldn’t worry about it.” In the same sense, I wouldn’t worry about GM CEO Rick Wagoner’s Gulfstream. It’s as nothing compared to the amount of money he’s pissed away on, well, everything else. Of course, it’s not the money, it’s the principle.

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 217: Let The Run Begin

Ken Elias — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:47:58 +0000

A run on the bank. That’s what will happen as soon as Congress adjourns without a bailout plan for the Detroit 3. Hard-pressed suppliers and creditors will force GM to do what must be done: Chapter 11. I guarantee it. GM and Chrysler will sink into bankruptcy before they even think about the annual Holiday shutdown. A few Senators and hundreds of thousands of workers within America's automotive industry don’t want to see that sad day arrive. But arrive it will. And as the Capitol Hill hearings proved beyond a shadow of a doubt, Detroit needs a thorough cleansing.

General Motors Death Watch 215: Man Up!

Ken Elias — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:13:54 +0000

GM’s at the cliff’s edge looking deep into the chasm and sees…nothing. How pathetic. Here's a company with $150b in annual revenues and all they can say is “give us the money or else.” How lame is that? Frankly, it speaks to the complete lack of leadership and direction at this company. GM has not advanced one shred of evidence that it knows what to do if it goes onto the government welfare roles. In fact, all we’ve heard is “more of the same” restructuring and downsizing that’s been completely ineffective to date in stemming the tide. That dog just won’t hunt. But if GM’s Board of Directors and executive managers had a clue, this is what they would do heading into the showdown with Congress...

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 214: Whose Car Company is This Anyway?

Robert Farago — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:59:32 +0000

In the legend of Faust, the protagonist sells his soul to the Devil in exchange for knowledge and power. Needless to say, things end badly for one member of the transaction (hint: it’s not the guy with the horns on his head). A “Faustian bargain” has come to mean a deal where you surrender what’s truly important to achieve an ultimately worthless goal. Yes, I’m talking about GM. If the artist once known as the world’s largest automaker avoids Chapter 11 via a bailout deal with Washington (a.k.a. Mephistopheles), the contract will ensure its final, irretrievable doom.

Editorial: Bailout Watch, German Edition, Drei: Opel, Heim Ins Reich?

Bertel Schmitt — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 09:48:24 +0000

Leave it to the B&B to really transcend the as-good-as-defeated General's Battle of the Deficit-Bulge, aimed right at the German taxpayer's money, a.k.a. Government loan guarantees for Opel. Tireguy typed: "The imminent bankruptcy of GM could endanger seriously Opel, although Opel is still profitable." Deutschland appears to agree. As we shall soon see, some may have a slightly less philanthropic angle. Let's get right to the point: Opel, Heim ins Reich, anyone? Indeed, some in Germany seem to be itching for a re-match of the Ardennenoffensive. Opel is GM's heavy artillery in the bastion Europe. Some 75 percent of GM's European business comes from Opel. If the not-so-secret plan survives, the offensive against General "Nuts" Wagoner will be fought partially in Brussels, coincidentally not far from Bastogne. The broken record called history repeats, again and again. Executive summary of the order of battle follows. Right this way, please!

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 213: Blueprint for a Taxpayer-Funded GM C11

Robert Farago — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:00:00 +0000

[Once again, our anonymous bankruptcy lawyer has put his skills to use on our behalf. His C11 plan's a bit technical, and it sounds crazy, but it just might work.] The process kicks off with a GM Chapter 11 filing. The U.S. Treasury then gives GM a secured debtor-in possession line of credit for $40b. The line of credit is secured by a first security interest on all GM assets, being junior only to the existing secured line of credit. The fed's $10b of the line of credit is used to support essential suppliers through loans and pre-payments, perhaps tracking the existing GM model for financing its suppliers.

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 212: An Open Letter to President-Elect Barack Obama

Ken Elias — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 17:11:23 +0000

Dear President-elect Obama, Upon taking office, you will immediately face some tough decisions about the future of the government’s role in "saving" Ford, GM and Chrysler. As you know, the Detroit-based automotive industry has already bent the ears of your political colleagues, particularly Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority leader Reid. These Democratic leaders in Congress seek membership approval to provide taxpayer dollars to prevent these automakers from impending collapse. While we respect the efforts of Congressional leadership, and we share their desire to enhance and protect America's industrial base and employment therein, we ask that you spare a moment to listen to the opinions of people who do not share their belief that massive federal funding will achieve these goals. First, our qualifications.

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 211: For Whom the Bell Tolls

Robert Farago — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 14:41:26 +0000

It’s the morning after the day of. The day General Motors admitted to the world that they don’t have enough cash to last until the end of the year. And for once, GM’s standard-issue PR ploy-- leave the bad news until Friday afternoon, reveal some corrective action (axing 7k jobs) and downplay its significance-- worked against the General's generals. GM’s impending bankruptcy was buried beneath and within President-elect Barack Obama’s first press conference. The story was denied bailout-fueling urgency. It’s the ultimate condemnation of GM CEO Rick Wagoner’s administration: they can’t even exploit their own incompetence for the company’s survival.

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 210: Abandon Ship

Robert Farago — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 18:21:47 +0000

With a bit of luck, I’ll finish this editorial before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tells America how Washington will save Detroit by spending your tax money on a domestic automobile industry beyond salvation. I doubt it. As we’ve previously reported, our duly elected representatives have already met with the titanic captains of Ford, GM, Chrysler and the U.A.W. in a closed-door session. I'm sure they got their ducks— and our bucks— in a row. Nancy will sing an ode to the working man and pen a paean to the importance of American heavy industry. Grim faces will then face a grim task: figuring out the fastest way to put Ford, GM and Chrysler on federally-funded life support.

Editorial: American Leyland: The GM - Chrysler Bailout That’s Guaranteed To Fail

Justin Berkowitz — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:34:49 +0000

After the initial media support for a potential GM-Chrysler hookup (e.g. Jalopnik.com's Ray Wert), the bandwagon began to roll like a snowball down the proverbial mixed metaphor hill, and everybody soured on the deal. We even charted how individual commentators changed their positions and eventually "threw Chrysler to the Wolves." In Monday's New York Times, Andrew Ross Sorkin said that GM CEO Rick Wagoner's continued employment is a "minor miracle." But the commentatorati are still behind the curve re: the government's rumored $10b "intervention" in the GM - Chrysler merger. In the main, they have't even acknowledged that the bailout is happening. That, and the critical fact that it's structurally designed to fail.

General Motors Death Watch 209: Reality is the New Perception

Robert Farago — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:49:32 +0000

The average American has no idea that GM is run by a bunch of nimrods. And even if they knew about the Machiavellian machinations behind the automakers’ recent struggle for survival-- including hiring a raft of ex-treasury officials to lobby their former employer for tens of billions of GM bailout bucks-- they wouldn’t care. That’s all Inside Baseball stuff. Joe the Public has enough on their proverbial plate just running the kids to school, keeping food on the table and putting a roof overhead. But when it comes to buying a new car, well, that’s a horsepower of a different color.

General Motors Death Watch 208: Autopilot

Ken Elias — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 12:53:43 +0000

Well, it’s official. The Wall Street Journal reports that GM pleaded its case to U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The General's looking for a mere $10b in “continuation” money to fund its Chrysler “absorption.” That’s a nice cover story for saying that GM cannot muster any other spin on “crying uncle.” Regardless of what Hank “the Hammer” Paulson answers, it's a safe bet that we’ll be seeing an epic amount of taxpayer money flow into the RenCen’s silos of despondency in the near future. Mark my words: at the end of this, we'll be saying that never have so many paid so much to so few for so little.

General Motors Death Watch 207: Saving General Motors

Ken Elias — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:57:27 +0000

General Motors will soon be a ward of the United States federal government. Make no mistake about it. Without some kind of massive financial injection-- not a mere few billion dollars but tens of billions-- there’s no real solution to the problems of GM’s legacy of epic, chronic mismanagement. We know that day of a government bailout will come-– and much sooner than even Wall Street wants to believe. In fact, it’s almost upon us.

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 206: Antinomianism

Ken Elias — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 20:40:10 +0000

Ford CEO Alan Mulally goes to bed every night and prays that GM does a deal for Chrysler. In the morning, Big Al digests his corporate PR brief looking for missives from automotive and Wall Street scribes praising the combination of dumb and dumber. Every afternoon, he reviews Ford’s daily sales figures and wonders when the pain will stop. And soon, he’ll be rewarded with news he wants: his two Motown rivals will be bedding down together. “Thank you God, baby Jesus, and Fritz Henderson,” he’ll whisper to his wife. “Redemption is mine.”

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 205: The World According to TARP

Robert Farago — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 12:39:53 +0000

A Chrysler – GM merger is a mind-boggling prospect on many levels. But the over-arching question is simple enough. Why? Why in the world would General Motors want to combine with Chrysler? Given their respective balance sheets and future prospects, the analogies pretty much suggest themselves. My favorite: the Titanic rescuing the Lusitania. But if you want to understand the logic behind this merger deal, such as it is, we’ve got to explore a different metaphor: “changing horses mid-stream.”

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 204: GM Will “Absorb” Chrysler

Ken Elias — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 11:14:32 +0000

General Motors is on the brink of a financial disaster. It’s managed to keep out of the abyss through asset sales, hocking the company store, and yes, cost cutting. CEO Rick Wagoner’s “plan” might have worked had the economic winds blown more favorably. But they didn’t. The automaker is months away from a liquidity meltdown. Everyone who supplies GM knows it. The rating agencies know it. And yes, Rick Wagoner knows it. GM has to secure new funding or face a bankruptcy judge in Lower Manhattan. So now let’s talk about Chrysler…

Editorial: General Motors Death Watch 203: GMAC Headed for Bankruptcy

Ken Elias — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:26:58 +0000

GMAC will go bankrupt. The U.S lending giant is cut off from all lending sources. Smart depositors will flee its small bank (relative to GMAC itself). And its majority owner, Cerberus, won’t save it. It’s a pure liquidation play now-- with the bank going into FDIC receivership, maybe as soon as this Friday. Whether or not all Hell will break loose is an open question, with many answers...

General Motors Death Watch 202: Carmegeddon Pt. 2

Ken Elias — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 17:38:38 +0000

Consumers will not buy a new vehicle from a bankrupt carmaker. That’s the over-arching fear preventing GM from filing for a court-managed rescue: a total collapse of consumer confidence in the company’s products. History suggests that a GM C11 would indeed trigger carmegeddon. Ask an automotive historian to name an American automaker that filed for bankruptcy, survived, emerged and thrived and you get a doughnut-hole shaped answer. But I submit that GM will reorganize successfully. C11 will be a new beginning for GM, its suppliers, dealers, workers and, yes, customers-- not the end of everything. But let’s start from the corporate perspective…

General Motors Death Watch 201: Carmegeddon Pt. 1

Ken Elias — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 11:32:16 +0000

When a company doesn’t have enough money to pay creditors what they’re owed, it’s considered insolvent. By this definition, GM is insolvent. The American automaker’s working capital stands at negative $20b. Cash outflow for the half year through June 30 remains negative, at over seven billion dollars. And it’s getting worse, as cash calls arrive on a regular-- and irregular-- basis. There’s no more credit to tap, and GM has few assets of meaningful value left to sell. Oh yeah, GM’s gonna file for bankruptcy. Then what?

General Motors Death Watch 200: Granted

Andrew Dederer — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:45:36 +0000

During the Civil War, General George McClellan headed the largest army in the North. McClellan was an astounding capable soldier-- except for the part about fighting and winning a war. He was also insubordinate, rude and a potential political rival for President Lincoln. The president’s Cabinet recommended McClellan’s dismissal. “Who should replace him?” Lincoln asked. “Anybody!” they replied. “I can’t give the job to ‘anybody,’” Lincoln argued. “It will have to be a “somebody.” In the same sense, who can replace GM CEO Rick Wagoner?

General Motors Death Watch 199: Credit Where Credit’s Due

Robert Farago — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:56:04 +0000

As our airplane began its final approach into Atlanta’s Hartsfield airport, we flew over the muddy outlines of an enormous new housing development. Phase I was attached. There wasn’t a single construction worker, car or human to be seen. Later, driving through the city’s outskirts, we passed dozens of these brand new ghost ‘burbs. It looked as if someone had detonated a neutron bomb, or unleashed a killer virus. Of course, someone had. Easy credit. And anyone who thinks the new car market is headed for a recovery simply isn’t paying attention.

General Motors Death Watch 198: History is Bunk

Robert Farago — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 11:15:20 +0000

Today is General Motors’ one hundredth anniversary. Ironically, GM reached the century mark in the same year that it ended its reign as the world’s largest automaker. More importantly, the American automaker’s status as the world’s most profitable private enterprise has long been consigned to the scrapheap of history. The former economic powerhouse is now worth less than it owes, as it slouches towards bankruptcy. While The General’s camp followers may wish to set aide this day to bask in past glories, it’s the perfect time for the ailing American automaker to draw a line under the past and face the future.

General Motors Death Watch 196: Fact Vs. Fiction

Frank Williams — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:47:38 +0000

Discovery Channel’s “Mythbusters” takes on urban myths that have been circulating through the culture. The show's producers go to great extremes to prove or disprove the stories, and establish a coherent, no-nonsense scientific basis for their conclusions. Although copyright prevents them from using the term, GM has decided to play Mythbusters. Their new “GM Facts and Fiction” website claims its rectifying analysts and commentators (including this site) who have been trash talking The General and its wonderful products. Unfortunately, their “busting” consists of a lot of hyperbole. Their responses are short on facts, and constantly cherry-pick the stats they deploy in their defense. Let’s take a closer look, to separate fact from fiction.

General Motors Death Watch 195: The Oncoming Train

Robert Farago — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 02:01:32 +0000

Ten weeks before the Tet Offensive fatally undermined American support for the Vietnam War, General William Westmoreland embarked on a publicity tour to “sell” the ongoing military campaign. In a televised news conference, Westmoreland famously declared that he could see "the light at the end of the tunnel.” In the same sense, GM’s executives continue to express their faith in the automaker’s “turnaround.” This much is to be expected-- especially when The General is lobbying for tens of billions of dollars in public funds. But the mainstream automotive media’s complicity is unconscionable.

General Motors Death Watch 194: Good Money After Bad

Robert Farago — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 20:37:10 +0000

Of all the failures that have led GM to the brink of bankruptcy, the automaker's failure of imagination is the most profound. Never mind the plug-in electric - gas hybrid Chevy Volt. How about conjuring a vision of a company with two or three tightly-focused brands that each produce a handful of distinctive, class-leading and profitable vehicles, that markets them with relentless focus, and stands behind them with a national network of honest, efficient and courteous salesmen and mechanics? Whatever else Car Czar Bob Lutz can say about GM's product strategy, that ain't it. Which begs the question: what does The General want to do with U.S. taxpayer’s money?

General Motors Death Watch 193: Rough Seas

Ken Elias — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:31:16 +0000

GM’s North American Operations will go bankrupt. This statement will not come as a “revelation” to many TTAC readers. Of course, there are still some who will continue to claim that this website is “crying wolf” regarding The General's descent into ignominy. But to challenge any outcome other than a Chapter 11 filing borders on lunacy. As its centennial mark approaches, the vertex of the perfect storm now engulfs The General. Like it or not, believe it nor not, it's a tempest that will engulf the ship and send it to a rocky bottom.

General Motors Death Watch 192: Only The Good Die Young

Robert Farago — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 22:56:54 +0000

Earlier today, GM’s purchasing chief warned his light truck parts suppliers that he’s looking to halve their number. No surprise there. GM’s SUV and pickup truck sales (and margins) have fallen like a stone thrown in a deep, dark well. But here’s the strange thing: Bo Anderson wants credit for his forward thinking. “The effort is proactive," he told the Traverse City management seminar. "To be sure that we get the best suppliers." Bo’s boast is based on GM’s faith that it will persevere through the current unpleasantness because yes, Virginia, you CAN cut your way to prosperity. Only no, Bo, you can’t. But hey, it’s something to do.

General Motors Death Watch 191: On the Fritz

Robert Farago — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 15:54:49 +0000

Journalism professors counsel aspiring scribes to avoid deploying numbers in the first paragraph. It’s a sensible prohibition. Although statistics (a.k.a. facts) give journos the imprimatur of authority, nothing’s more narcoleptic than naked numerology. Which is just as well. My math skills are only slightly better than my ability to pilot a Gulfstream IV. But I know a man who regularly rides in the back of one of these airborne ego-carriers, and he’s an accountant. And the CEO of GM. For the weekend, anyway. The question is, who’s next?

General Motors Death Watch 190: Kill Everything but Chevrolet and Cadillac

Ken Elias — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:24:35 +0000

BMW doesn’t need to advertise their “ultimate driving machines.” After decades building and selling vehicles offering sporting luxury, BMW has trained its customers to intuitively understand their products' appeal. Brands take years if not decades to develop, millions to billions of dollars to engender, and require careful stewardship to sustain. Contrary to much of this website’s commentary, GM’s management is not stupid. They know that Buick, GMC, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn are “damaged brands” in North America. But unless General Motors’ execs follow Bimmer's lead, and soon, the company will fail.

General Motors Death Watch 189: Name and Form

Paul Niedermeyer — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:01:37 +0000

In the ancient Buddhist text Visuddhi-Magga, "name" and "form" are described as powerless in their respective isolation. But when they propitiously combine and mutually support one another, they attain power and "spring up and go forth." GM's announcement that the 2010 Chevy Cruze would [eventually] replace the Cobalt marks a dubious milestone in its continuing struggle to establish a lasting presence in the all-important compact car market. The Cruze will be the recipient of the eightieth name that GM has used on one of its mid-sized or smaller sedans since 1968.

General Motors Death Watch 188: The Bottom Line

Justin Berkowitz — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:53:29 +0000

If there's one thing Wall Street’s wizards are taking away from Rick Wagoner's morning press conference, it's that money's too tight to mention. Meanwhile product is, was and always will be the real meat of the matter. On this score, Wagoner doesn't. "Eighteen of the next 19 products will be cars or crossovers." Sounds good-- provided you don't ask "what are they?" The answer to that question flags the fact that General Motors still doesn't realize that they're in a business of building cars and convincing people to exchange their money for those cars.

General Motors Death Watch 187: Feel the Burn

Robert Farago — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:44:11 +0000

Earlier this morning, GM CEO Rick Wagoner announced a cost-cutting package designed to "better align the business to the current market condition." He's cutting bonuses, pushing salarymen out the door, disappearing the dividend, postponing the union's health care payment, putting truck development on ice, yada yada yada. While the media focuses on the scope and scale of Rick's "right-sizing," the money shot arrives in the last six words of the official press release. Apparently, GM has "an ever stronger and competitive product line-up." Nonsense. And until that's true, GM's doomed. Which means GM's doomed.

General Motors Deathwatch 186 - The Return of the Cannibals

Justin Berkowitz — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:13:42 +0000

The Wall Street Journal put itself in the headlines this week. The august paper reported that General Motors may be considering (i.e. thinking about thinking about) shedding brands. While some of us have been saying-- for years-- that GM should refine, resell and/or retire it's octo-branded U.S. portfolio, this is the first time the mainstream media covered the issue since Oldsmobile was bricked-over in 2002. Not surprisingly, GM issued a flat-out denial, followed by a little deal hand-holding. Apparently, The General won’t shutter brands, only “reduce overlapping models.” Yes, it's the same old song, with a different Beat since you've been gone.

General Motors Death Watch 185: Plan 9 From Outer Space

Robert Farago — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:32:19 +0000

Now that GM's staring down the barrel of bankruptcy, the artist formerly known as the world’s largest automaker has launched a fresh offensive. Not a product offensive, of course. That would have required forward planning. We’re talking about a PR offensive. Hope for the hopeless. Alternatively, weasel words for the unwary. Here’s the headline, courtesy of unnamed sources, via the Wall Street Journal: a return to profitability by 2010. And here’s the kicker: the target date is “unofficial.” Does it get any more fantastic than that? Yes, it does.

General Motors Death Watch 184: Resignation

Robert Farago — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:36:03 +0000

Rick Wagoner is a lame duck. No matter how you look at it, it's clear that the failing, flailing CEO must go. Next week, The General's Board of Bystanders will meet to "discuss" the crisis. GM's dividend will disappear, triggering fresh anxiety (and some atta boys) from the financial markets and the media. The Bystanders should push Rick out of the RenCen penthouse, to glide to Aruba on his golden parachute. But they won't. They can't. Wagoner walking would be the final straw: an admission that GM's forked. And before he goes, Wagoner's got one more job to do...

General Motors Death Watch 183: Credit Where Credit’s Due. Or Not.

Robert Farago — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:21:49 +0000

Earlier today, GM CEO Rick Wagoner told the world that the automaker has “adequate liquidity” until the end of the year. So I guess no one believed him the first time. Ipso facto. Wagoner’s reassurance came on the same day GM’s stock price sank to a forty-year low. The same day Goldman Sachs recommended that investors run for the hills. No surprise, then, that Wagoner felt compelled to go beyond his previous “we’re good” guarantee. "We have a lot of options to fund beyond that," Wagoner soothed. Unless they don’t. In which case, it’s fork sticking time.

General Motors Death Watch 182: He Who Owns the Gold

Robert Farago — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 02:23:35 +0000

Earlier today, General Motors announced a "temporary" return to zero percent financing. It’s a clear, unavoidable sign that the automaker’s June sales slump is, as predicted, cataclysmic. Staring down the black hole begun on Black Tuesday, GM had to do something, anything to move the metal. And yet, at the same time, GM also revealed it’s raising its prices by 3.5 percent across the board. This second piece of news is equal parts bizarre and revealing. In essence, in the final hand of the poker game for its existence, GM has just doubled down. And now it’s Toyota’s bet. Here’s the thinking…

General Motors Death Watch 181: Bankruptcy

Robert Farago — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 21:34:51 +0000

TTAC’s Deep Throat and I have been talking about GM’s decline and fall for well over two years. My man’s mantra: “follow the cash burn.” And so we have, through foreign misadventures, asset fire sales, union payoffs, supplier bailouts and more. We’ve watched GM CEO Rick Wagoner mortgage the American automaker’s future to conflate the company’s bottom line— to little avail. Throughout this firestorm, we’ve wondered how the automotive and financial press could miss the simple fact that GM’s been taking in less than it spends for a long, long time. And now, suddenly, they’ve noticed. And now the end is near. Here’s how DT sees it going down…

GM Death Watch 180: Bail!

Robert Farago — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 20:31:20 +0000

Detroit's not flying the white flag just yet, but you can hear the unmistakable sounds of unfurling. Post Black Tuesday, GM CEO Rick Wagoner set about painting General Motors as a victim of unforeseeable circumstances; the switch from truck to car sales was faster than "anyone" could imagine. Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli simply said everything's fine-- a sure sign that nothing is. And earlier today, Ford President Mark Fields pleaded for government intervention to protect/create a domestic electric vehicle battery industry. Clearly, finally, The Big 2.8 are thinking ahead. To government bailouts.

General Motors Death Watch 179: Black Tuesday

Robert Farago — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:58:04 +0000

In July's Car and Driver, Csabe Csere takes the Secretary of Transportation to task for her ignorance about auto industry lead times. How can Mary E. Peters' department mandate a big increase in fuel economy standards for 2011 when Detroit’s already signed off on those products? Despite the obvious irony-- the buff book’s hobbled by their two-month lead time-- Csere makes a good point. The corollary: unless GM planned to switch from gas-guzzling light trucks to fuel-efficient cars in 2003, they’re insert F-bomb here. As May’s sales numbers indicate, indeed they are.

General Motors Death Watch 178: Failure is Possible

Robert Farago — Wed, 28 May 2008 19:20:24 +0000

“Rich people don’t care [about high gas prices].” Bob Lutz’ statement-- made during the launch of GM’s new SUV’s in August 2005-- encapsulates the automaker’s history of arrogance, ignorance and self-delusion. Then again, what else could GM’s Car Czar have said? Whether or not GM should have seen the gas crunch coming, the die was cast. Now, as gas prices crest $4 a gallon, as Delphi and GMAC teeter on the abyss, as GM’s stock price hits a historic low, GM’s slide into Chapter 11 is beginning to assume the mantle of inevitability. And why not? There is no Plan B.

General Motors Death Watch 177: The World is Not Enough

Paul Niedermeyer — Thu, 15 May 2008 11:53:56 +0000

According to perceived wisdom, GM's overseas ops will keep the corporate mothership afloat. Some 64 percent of first quarter sales came from outside our borders, as well as ALL of GM’s profits. The General claims that foreign markets will account for 75 percent of its profit by decade’s end. So why not just shut down the NA operations and firewall the rest as “Global Motors?” A closer look at GM’s three international units tells the tale.

General Motors Death Watch 176: Oh they built the ship Titanic…

Robert Farago — Thu, 08 May 2008 18:02:00 +0000

Once upon a time, the myth of Icarus personified the warning that pride goeth before a fall (literally). These days, the RMS Titanic’s death by iceberg-- on its maiden voyage no less-- illustrates the dangers of hubris. That’s because the public considers the concept of an unsinkable ship patently ridiculous. In fact, the Titanic should have been unsinkable (save tsunami, torpedo or ballistic attack). The reasons the ocean liner eventually slipped into the depths have much to tell us about the ship’s corporate equivalent, General Motors.

General Motors Death Watch 175: Phone Calls From the Dead

Robert Farago — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 16:16:50 +0000

Dean Radin believes some people are psychic. No surprise there; investigating psychic phenomena is what Radin does for a living. And yet, when author Mary Roach asked the electrical engineer if there's a middle ground between believing that the dead contact the living through electromechanical devices and viewing the whole thing a hoax, Radin said "The middle ground between genuinely true and outright faking is unconscious delusion." Welcome to GM's world.

General Motors Death Watch 174: Gravity Sucks

William C Montgomery — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 18:21:41 +0000

As a child I loved to play on swings. Leaning back and kicking my legs forward, I could propel myself into momentary weightlessness. Of course, every good swing ended with an acrobatic dismount. At the point of greatest forward momentum, I would let go of the chains and launch myself off the seat. For a brief moment I would be flying. Like an astronaut on NASA’s vomit comet, I would arc across the back yard. The sensation was thrilling. But I wasn’t a bird. Gravity’s hand never failed to pull me back to earth. And so it is with General Motors.

General Motors Death Watch 173: Eight into Four Does Not Go

Robert Farago — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 20:32:24 +0000

GM is re-organizing its corporate structure. It’s putting its eight brands into four divisions under four car czarettes, in a three-three-one-one configuration. For those of you who can’t guess which GM brand will go with which (as there’s no neat, logical way to make these groupings), it’s Cadillac, Hummer and Saab; Buick, Pontiac and GMC; and Saturn and Chevy on their lonesome. “We are further streamlining the organization,” GM’s President of North America announced. “To reduce complexity, align resources to improve the consumer experience and improve bottom line business results." It’s a deeply misguided maneuver.

GM Death Watch 172: Buick’s Enclave

Adrian Imonti — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 11:17:10 +0000

In 280 BC, King Pyrrhus took on the might of the Roman Army-- and won. In one of history’s most insightful strategic assessments, the King surveyed the corpse-littered battlefield and concluded, “one more such victory shall undo us.” Since then, the term “Pyrrhic victory” describes a conflict in which a force expends so much energy winning a battle that it loses the war. It’s a lesson General Motors seems determined not to learn. The latest chapter in this continuing saga of self-delusion: the Buick Enclave. The Enclave is a false promise that illuminates GM’s strategic poverty, and its resulting weakness.

GM Death Watch 171: Focus!

Robert Farago — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:39:15 +0000

Last Thursday, GM asked the California Air Resources Board (CARB) for "extra credit." Despite the fact that Chevy's gas-electric plug-in hybrid isn't in production, the General's generals wanted the rules modified so the Volt could more fully satisfy the Golden State's Zero Emissions Vehicle requirements. Done. And then, today, GM announced it will build 1000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for the same purpose. Only it wants someone else (i.e. taxpayers) to fund 40 hydrogen refueling stations. Once again, GM's reveals its core weakness: ADD.

General Motors Death Watch 170: Executive Outlook Express

Robert Farago — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 12:55:09 +0000

General Motors is about to report a massive sales decline for the month of March. GM’s management will acknowledge the loss, blame it on the general downturn in the U.S. new car market, point to a few successful models and move on. Later, the American automaker will report it’s burned over a billion dollars in the last financial quarter. GM’s management will blame the market downturn (again) and the strike at American Axle. The top brass will admit that GM’s turnaround is… delayed. But at no point will they accept responsibility for their plight. Well, why would they?

General Motors Death Watch 169: Those Who Do Not Learn From History Try to Rewrite It

Paul Niedermeyer — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 11:45:55 +0000

“Not making a car like the Prius was a mistake.” In recent days, GM’s Car Czar has amped-up his pro-hybrid rhetoric, including this mea culpa. Clearly, Vice Chair Bob Lutz’s enthusiasm for gas - electric products has undergone a volte face, inspired by his fatalistic conclusion that only alt power can satisfy federal regulators’ mandates for increased fuel efficiency. But in his newfound zeal, Maximum Bob is rewriting history. In the interests of truth, let’s set the record straight.

General Motors Death Watch 168: Straight from the Horse’s Mouth

Robert Farago — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 13:28:59 +0000

Yesterday, Justin and I caught wind of GM Car Czar Bob Lutz' private pow-wow with bloggers attending the New York Auto Show on GM's dime. Christopher Barger, GM's Director of Global Communications Technology, barred our way. "It's invitation only," Barger announced. "Thirty-five is the limit." I asked Barger if he was TTAC-aware. "Sure, you guys hate us." So I waited in the hallway and collared Maximum Bob. I introduced myself and asked permission to attend. "Do we know these people?" Lutz asked. "Do we like them?" "It's up to you," a stunned Barger replied. We were in.

General Motors Death Watch 167: The Not So Gr8 Pontiac G8

Robert Farago — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 15:45:02 +0000

Media-wise, the new Pontiac G8 is a hit. Obviously. The Aussie four door conforms to the pistonhead paradigm: a powerful, rear-wheel-drive sports sedan. According to the jobbing journos flown to a first-class California hotel to test the new machine on local roads, the G8 GT isn't aesthetically offensive, goes like stink and handles well. While hooning hacks are celebrating the return of the [imported] American muscle car, they seem to have forgotten the fact that the muscle car is dead. As is Pontiac. And, by extension, GM.

General Motors Death Watch 166: The Unaccountable Accountant

Robert Farago — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 11:46:32 +0000

In 1968, a book called The Peter Principle argued that large organizations promote employees past their proven abilities, until they reach their natural “level of incompetence.” As a remedy, Dr. Laurence J. Peter suggested a rigid corporate caste system. For example, a talented accountant could rise within his field to become the company’s The Chief Financial Officer (CFO). And that’s it. Promoting the successful beancounter to the head of the company risks evoking The Peter Principle, and threatens disaster. Or, in the case, of GM, creates it.

General Motors Death Watch 2752: The Story So Far

Paul Niedermeyer — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 15:01:56 +0000

In the comments section below the most recent General Motors Death Watch, natredde asserted that the series' longevity argues against its existence. “Calling it a Death Watch after having the time to write 165 articles is silly... Somehow I think being on GM Death Watch 2752 wouldn’t necessarily add a lot of legitimacy.” As a student of GM history, I’ve been keeping my own private GM Death Watch for decades. It was suspended (at number 2751) when I discovered and joined TTAC. But the challenge of adding legitimacy to number 2752 was simply too great to resist.

General Motors Death Watch 165: The VEBA Fiasco

Robert Farago — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 17:39:30 +0000

As GM's fortunes head for their inevitable denouement, it's time to pause and reflect on the deal that revolutionized the American automaker's labor relations. I speak here of the multi-billion dollar bribe paid to the United Auto Workers (UAW) to cut their sky-high wages and benefits down to size. In exchange for a new Voluntary Employees Beneficiary Association (VEBA) health care trust, the union accepted a two-tier wage system. At a stroke, Motown became competitive with the transplants, while the UAW protected its members' health care benefits for all time. In theory.

General Motors Death Watch 164: Two-Mode Hybrid RIP?

Edward Niedermeyer — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 11:57:03 +0000

In the world of hybrid-drive technology, far-sighted development can pay huge dividends. Just ask Toyota, whose sales of Hybrid Synergy Drive-powered vehicles passed the global million-unit mark last year. While Nissan is licensing Toyota's Synergy Drive for its Altima Hybrid, GM has passed on proven success in its pursuit of two-mode hybrid technology with BMW, Mercedes and Chrysler at their joint Hybrid Development Center in Troy, Michigan. Smooth move or just another example of GM throwing good money after bad? Yup, you guessed it.

GM Death Watch 163: What doth it profit a man?

Robert Farago — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 11:52:59 +0000

"Managing expectations." It's a term near and dear to the hearts of the people who pull our politicians' strings. Increasingly, it's the rhetorical weapon of choice for executives seeking to maintain their grip on America's large corporations. While there's nothing wrong with casting your company's efforts in a positive light, the danger is both simple and lethal. When a company's culture becomes based on hype, it loses its ability to react to reality-- both good and bad. It becomes lost in the fog of war. One such company is GM.

General Motors Death Watch 162: Cannibals

Andrew Dederer — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 11:55:06 +0000

Back in the eighties, a GM executive congratulated a colleague who worked for the Cadillac brand. “Well done for reaching 300k sales.” The Caddy man was having none of it. “We didn’t sell three hundred thousand Cadillacs; we sold three hundred thousand Buicks.” The remark was prescient in two ways. First, it acknowledged Cadillac’s ruinous move “down market.” Second, more importantly, it reflected the fact that Caddy’s success was Buick’s failure. GM was already descending from a well-ordered familial hierarchy into the madness and chaos of cannibalism.

General Motors Death Watch 161: The Emperor’s New Clothes

Robert Farago — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 16:05:57 +0000

In the old fairy story, con men convince a naked sovereign that he’s wearing fine clothes. Applying that cautionary tale to General Motors is not as straightforward as it seems. Is GM CEO Rick Wagoner aware that the enormous automaker is tumbling towards bankruptcy? Or is he living in a dream world, demanding that his "kingdom" admire his invisible finery? Whether Wagoner’s deluded or deluding, his ”GM Statement on Turnaround Plan” indicates that GM is still buck naked.

General Motors Death Watch 160: Promises Promises / Volt Birth Watch 24: Fly Me to the Moon

Frank Williams — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 14:56:19 +0000

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy made a pronouncement that made a lot of people think he'd lost his mind: "We choose to go to the moon in this decade." According to GM's Vice Chairman of Global Product Development, Chevrolet's gas-electric plug-in electric hybrid is GM's moon shot. Wired magazine recently sat down with Bob Lutz and asked the Car Czar what would happen if the Volt doesn't succeed. "What if Kennedy hadn't pulled off the moon shot?" Bob wondered aloud. "If it doesn't work, it's not fatal. But if it does work, it will be sensational and it will have the same sort of symbolism." The U.S. put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, as promised. What are the chances the Volt will appear in a Chevy showroom by 2010?

General Motors Death Watch 159: What’s GMNext? Panic!

Robert Farago — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 16:23:05 +0000

Contrary to popular belief, panic is a logical reaction to an external threat. When a cornered animal’s fight or flight responses are unavailable or exhausted, acting erratically is its only hope. GM has been showing signs of panic for some time: on-again off-again product plans, vainglorious boasts, mistimed marketing, ill-advised divestiture and more. Recent events indicate that the domestic automaker’s aberrant behavior is escalating; leading, I’m afraid, to extinction. But let’s start with the meta-weirdness and work our way back to specific inexplicability.

General Motors Death Watch 158: Of Mice and Men

Robert Farago — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 14:53:13 +0000

“It would have helped to have a little bit of sunshine.” What a strange statement. Not “General Motors is prepared to weather the economic downturn ahead.” More like “Darn it! Just when we got our new picnic blanket spread out, it’s started to rain!” But then GM CEO Rick Wagoner is a GM lifer, a Harvard-trained beancounter, a man whose self-effacement hides a genuine lack of leadership. “We look forward to the sunny days,” Wagoner continues. “But realistically we can’t plan on it for next year.” So what IS GM’s plan?

General Motors Death Watch 157: The Fog of War

Robert Farago — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 21:42:04 +0000

Last November, all GM’s eight U.S. brands lost ground. As the automaker’s pretty much shot its vehicular wad, the falling stats have convinced many industry observers that GM’s turnaround is back in turnaround. Of course, there isn’t a turnaround to turnaround. Not now, and not in the last forty years. Since the sixties, GM’s market share has been on a downwards trajectory. In 1962, The General owned over 52 percent of the U.S. new car market. Today, The Big 2.8 combined can’t muster a simple majority. There’s a reason for that.

General Motors Death Watch 156: Struth!

Justin Berkowitz — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:04:45 +0000

This is my first General Motors pre-obituary. I’ve never penned one because I never liked having to face the reality that GM's killing itself one bone-headed decision at a time. But in carmaking as in any type of proto-warfare, turning a blind eye to stupid mistakes doesn’t make things any better. In the past few weeks, GM has made three product announcements that are so head-shakingly absurd they’ve earned themselves the starring role in a GM Deathwatch. Strike one…

General Motors Death Watch 151: Maximum Bob’s Keepin’ It Real

Robert Farago — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 15:44:34 +0000

Bob Lutz is a gift. The Car Czar’s uncanny ability to spout uninformed, arrogant nonsense makes analyzing GM’s corporate confusion a slam dunk. Unfortunately, the mainstream automotive press prefers to proffer a protest-free platform for Maximum Bob’s maximum BS. So be it. We can still read between the lines. In this case, Automotive News [AN] blesses us with a bit of Maximum Bob raw. It’s deeply worrying stuff.

GM Death Watch 150: My Kingdom for a Malibu

Robert Farago — Mon, 12 Nov 2007 12:21:17 +0000

GM touts their new Chevrolet Malibu as "The car you can't ignore." I've driven the new ‘Bu. It's a handsome, well-built, thoroughly competent machine. As good as it is, Chevrolet's mid-size sedan will only remain psychologically inescapable as long as GM sustains the car's $150m ad campaign. To suggest otherwise ignores the quality and strength of the ‘Bu's competition. It's yet another example of GM's mindless arrogance. In fact, Chevy's first hit in years is already in deep trouble, as I discovered down at the dealership.

General Motors Death Watch 149: Contractual Obligations

Robert Farago — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 08:44:31 +0000

After perusing the United Auto Workers’ (UAW) contract with GM, I reckon both sides got a good deal. The UAW secured job guarantees: assurances that GM won’t off-shore new and existing products for the North American market. For its part, The General gets to off-load the lion’s share of its fixed costs AND a chance to lower the pay scale for a third of its hourly workforce. If the contract is ratified, the UAW protects its existing members’ livelihoods and GM becomes a lower-cost producer. No question: it’s a new lease on life.