Car Execs Predict: 41m Cars Per Year In China 2015
Whenever yours truly sings the long-term praise of the booming Chinese auto market, it elicits loud protests: “Can’t be! Bubble market! The environment! (Our gasoline.)”
The people who make and sell cars for a living have a different opinion. The AlixPartners consultancy asked 50 senior executives from both foreign and domestic players in China’s automobile industry how much they think the Chinese car market will grow between now and 2015. Guess what their answer is?
The 50 executives expect “steady growth of the Chinese auto market in the future, with a projected average sales growth of 20 percent per annum between now and 2015”, said John Hoffecker, managing director of AlixPartners.
20 percent ain’t much? Don’t forget the magic of compound interest.
If the 50 guys are right on, it will be 16m cars this year, 24m cars in 2012, 41m cars in 2015.
Can’t be! Communist propaganda! Lies! Bubble market! The environment! Our gasoline! Let them ride bicycles!
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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When I read the Onion piece linked below, I immediately thought of Bertel, lol: http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-china-to-overtake-us-as-worlds-biggest-assh,17277/
If it could be easily escrowed, I would gladly wager $10,000 USD that China will not, in fact, buy 41M cars in 2015. Bertel sounds like exactly like every dot com dolt did in 1999. The world just dont change that fast. Hell, I would further wager that 50% of the execs in the study even considered that 20% a year for 5 years means 41M cars. They just threw out a number.
Sounds to me like some analyst drew a line on a graph over the past 5 years of car sales in China and just extrapolated it into the next 5 years. I see no problem with that... How are these 41,000,000 cars per year meant to be powered? Is China planning to liquify its coal or import millions of barrels per day like the USA does?
Folks, some of you might exercise a little caution on the keyboard. Learn how to read. Or at least don't post when inebriated. 1.) I reported the results of a study. The study is not my prediction. 2.) I will never wager that China will buy 41m cars by 2015. But if someone wants to bet against my prediction that China will have some 700 million cars in 20 years, I'm game. 3.) Careful with the name calling. If someone calls a TTAC author a dolt or similar again, then that person will receive an invitation to Beijing for a little re-education. Or, a disinvitation from TTAC. Please refer to http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/faqs/#commentpolicy once in a while. It's an interesting read.