I just can’t envision the Ontario Provincial Police forcing open a CAW picket line so that a fleet of semi’s can come in and move out tooling and other equipment – and that’s after lawsuits and other legal actions which would be used to delay any attempt to unload the plant.

Remember, the objective is to make moving a plant so expensive that the cheaper thing to do is to just pay off the workers (again). Yes, eventually you reach a tipping point in which the long term cost so far exceeds the short term costs the company just pulls the plug (Hello Buffalo!).

Buzz is betting that we’re not at that point yet – I suspect that Buzz and I could not agree upon much more then the time of day and that Sleeman’s makes a fine beer – I got to admit: I think that he’s right on this one.

The CAW is both politically and media savvy. They know how to run a picket line and to appear to be ‘victims’ at a pay scale that is the envy of most Canadian workers.

Only so many straws you can put on the camel.

Mike: why is this so? Why can’t they pack up the tooling and make the vehicles in USA?

We will see additonal posturing in the coming months from both sides for a multitude of reasons. They will start negotiating, they will reach some sort of an impasse, who knows they might even call a mini strike and then settle.

The CAW has the value of the CDN dollar as strong headwind, if the Ontario economy deteriorates as forecasted it will be another headwind.

I guess what your saying is that the Canadian government would seize the private property of the automakers and not allow them to ship their tooling that they paid for down to the US? What a wonderful world.

The CAW knows that these companies are judged by their short term profits/losses. They are getting ready to roll the dice (again), betting that no Detroit manufacturer will want to take the hit of losing almost an entire years worth of production from a prolonged strike.

When I say a year, I think that I’m being conservative. There is no way the tooling is ever leaving Oakville, Oshawa, or Brampton, so the company will have to start completely from scratch. That takes time and Buzz & Co. understand better then anyone that the company(s) don’t want to take that hit – even if it is the smart move when viewed from a long term perspective.

Just Google “Caterpillar Case Study” to see a real world example.

Last but not least is the UAW. Would they really want to be enablers to the wholesale movement of entire factories just to save 10-15K jobs? Since production is all boxed up and moving to a new city what’s so great about Michigan – and not Mexico?

Bottom line: It is only when companies commit to long term cost reductions – even at the expense of short term profits/losses will the behavior of the labor unions change.

Think about what you are doing before you “step off”, buddy. OK?
You’re not the one who will see the pavement rushing up to meet you. Are you REALLY thinking about those you “serve”? Or is this ALL about your “legacy”? ‘Cuz you might not leave the “legacy” you think you will.

Economics, like physics, will not care about anyones reasons, theories or families. They don’t care if you think somebody is “holding out” on you. If you disobey them they WILL take you out. Nothing personal, just doing their job.

I suspect the CAW und UAW have been dissing Momma Econ’s laws for a long time, look out ‘cuz Momma’s gonna smack you hard.

Philosophically yours,

Bunter

Not to mention the value of the dollar.

It’s not what he thinks; it’s just that he’s 50 years too late in thinking it.

In Buzz’s defense, it’s hard to argue with success. Short sighted company managers – check, spineless jellyfish of a Liberal Party provincial government (talking to you Dalton)-check, and workers that would like a few weeks in the summer-check! Note: there is a reason that Canadian auto contracts expire in the summertime (and not January or February). This playbook has worked before……

Buzz, if you’re reading this (and I know that you are) keep fighting the power! In the meantime I’ll be dropping of copies of Thomas Friedman’s book “The World is Flat” over at the CAW 707 hall on the QEW (just across from the Ford Oakville plant).

Not to worry. They won’t get hired at all. Can you say made in China?

Here’s an idea:

Present it to the union membership, endorse whatever proposal (if it is warranted), and let them VOTE on it.

The current conditions dictate that they might, just MIGHT be willing to accept some sacrifices to be able to guarantee their own jobs, as well as the jobs of the future.

Currency issues have alrady taken away a large part of our cost advantages. Why give them another reason to abandon Canada?