Detroit took too long to improve. They’re not going to come roaring back. At best they’ll manage to be profitable at a much lower sales volume. Record profits? That wouldn’t be saying much, since it has been decades since these companies had a truly good profit as a percentage of sales. Record profits after adjusting for inflation? Now, that would be something, but highly unlikely to happen.

Yes. Ford and GM have both cut massive amounts of structural cost in the last 3 years, improved their products, brought their capacities in line, and restructured their UAW contracts to save a ton of money starting in 2010. That’s a massive turnaround. The problem is, they’re still in process, not done yet, and the UAW savings don’t take affect until 2010.

Perhaps we all missed the “fact” because it doesn’t exist. Plus having plan for a turnaround before you can present the “fact” would help.

Suffering from BDS: Bailout Derangement Syndrome.

I wish I had a calculator for every time I read about some slack jaw claiming “Detroit is on the verge of a turnaround” over the past 40 years……

GM does not have a chance…silly bailout or not…if they keep all of their brands. GM should go from the 4 dozen or so they have now, down to about 3-4…with Chevrolet and Cadillac being the ONLY ones that are 100% safe.

Well put. I clearly remember Chrysler, Dodge and Plymouth being a shell of their former selves in the immediate post bail out period.

* Chevrolet’s chassis on frame trucks needs to be made profitable at 40% of 2006 sales. Trust me, some Americans will still want a Tahoe.

* Chevrolet cars – make the G8, an Impala versus the fleet queen it is today and for God’s sake learn how to build a profitable, fuel efficient, small car to replace the Cobalt in North America. It better be one that will sell versus Toyota and not fall apart. A $40,000 Chevy Volt is not the answer.

* Say goodbye to Hummer, Pontiac and GMC.

* Buick can stay, if it is sold exclusively by Caddy dealers.

* Merge the retailing of Saturn and Saab here in the US so that it represents Euro-GM as a brand – if these brands need to stay. If not, poof!

Whether GM survives a bailout or Chapt 11 and a bailout will depend who takes the helm from Rick Wagoner, the next product line up, plus how the dealership count, VEBA and retiree benefits are settled.

Unlike GM and Chrysler, Ford actually has a whole lot of compelling product that starts rolling off the line next year. Granted, Ford’s survival depends on their success, but for the first time in a long time an American automaker is going to have a full line that is competitive with the imports. Its becoming more clear that Ford is going to be the last one standing in all of this.

I guess All market fluctuations have contrarians, paid for, political, or otherwise.

Too bad, C11 is so inevitable, as GM or F stock is basically an Option Contract at these levels.

OR………….

Make Chevrolet your blue collar brand, Pontiac your “sporty” brand, and Cadillac your luxury brand.

Actually…the only thing worth saving in Pontiac is the G8…so make that a Chevelle or Impala SS and shut the damn thing down. Make the Enclave and new Lacrosse a Cadillac, and say good bye to the rest.

There…I just saved GM.

Also, that’s exactly why there loan guarantees for banks have been established world wide, so that the banks can once again start to take some risks. Of course they won’t be as reckless as before the credit crunch, but that’s a good thing…look where that got us.

A 25% chance of success just won’t cut it anymore.

And keep in mind that the credit ratings of GM and Ford have been abysmal even before Fanny, Freddy and Lehman, in spite of new UAW contracts.

In short, if you can make a good business case, you’ll get the money from the banks. If they believe that giving GM loans would mean throwing good money after bad, then the taxpayer shouldn’t expect anything else.

Ummm, are you aware that there’s been a bit of a disruption in the credit markets? Right now the “free market” at least the part on Wall Street is worried about their own exposure to toxic debt.

Yep, nobody commenting at TTAC has hat… er, disdain for the folks in Detroit and Michigan. Nope, none at all.

The banks however don’t think so. And now even the insurers refuse to cover Ford and GM suppliers. They would never do that if GM had the numbers to back them up. But they don’t, so they’ll die.

They are, and have been capable of producing fine products all along, but instead they have honed utter mediocrity into what they consider to be high art. You reap what you sow and Detroit been sowing crap. They’ve been on notice for my entire lifetime that they could and should do better. Instead they’ve driven their customers away in droves. THEY HAVE FAILED.

Failure should not be rewarded with tax money. Socialism is a failed experiment. This isn’t the Soviet Union, or 1970s Britain. We don’t need American-Leyland.

The airline industry has survived 25 years of bad times. Nobody thought Pan-Am or TWA were “too big to fail.” Chapter 11 allows companies to restructure and reinvent themselves. If they are “on the verge” of some big turnaround, then by all means, DO IT YOUR FRIGGIN SELVES, but don’t ask me, or my kids for the capital to do it. We’re already saddled with paying for two wars, and (ironically) a big tax cut.. not to mention a host of other foolish things our government has blown money on.

Build something worth buying, or die. It seems Detroit has chosen the latter but can’t face reality. Neither can McElroy.

–chuck

GM stock has never been cheaper. If you really believe that, and believe that a buyout’s a done deal, buy!