Blame Brexit: The Volkswagen Golf Cabriolet Is Sunk, Likely Never to Rise Again

Timothy Cain
by Timothy Cain

If it’s not Obama’s fault, then it’s probably Brexit’s.

Volkswagen’s sixth-generation Golf is destined to mark the end of the Volkswagen Golf Cabriolet run. The Mk7 Golf didn’t spawn a droptop variant and the United Kingdom’s shrinking car market has reportedly caused Volkswagen to cease development of the eighth-generation Golf’s cabriolet.

Of course, Volkswagen hasn’t sold a topless Golf in the United States since the 2002 model year, when an Mk3 Golf essentially wore the Mk4 Golf’s face. That’s a 15-year gap for topdown Golf motoring, a timespan which saw Golf Cabriolets disappear in other markets, as well. But five years after launching the Volkswagen Eos — a Golf-related convertible with a power retractable hardtop — Volkswagen brought the Golf Cabriolet back from the grave for the Mk6 generation. There was even a GTI.

With the Eos’s death, it appeared likely that the Volkswagen Golf Cabriolet would be redeveloped yet again. But with a soft UK car market — a bizarrely convertible-hungry market, by the by — since Britons voted to sever ties with the European Union, Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess told Autocar, “We wanted to do a convertible now, but with the relatively weak UK market and the uncertainty about what will happen, we had to think against it.”

So, Beetle Convertible it is.

British auto sales have now declined in five consecutive months, according to the SMMT. Through the first two-thirds of 2017, UK volume is down 2 percent following record volume in 2016. But analysts don’t predict a particularly healthy UK market for the foreseeable future, as diesel-powered vehicles are suffering from rapidly shrinking demand and uncertainty surrounding Brexit is only growing. Suppliers are concerned. Automakers are troubled. Buyers don’t know what’s next.

For niche segment cas such as the potential Mk8 Golf Cabriolet, there are just too many unknowns to proceed with development. The United Kingdom is an inordinately large convertible market, lapping up more topless vehicles than all of Europe’s sunny climes. In Europe, only the significantly larger German market buys more convertibles than the UK, which, let’s face it, isn’t the first place that comes to mind when you say, “Fun in the sun.” Combined, Germany and the UK account for roughly three-quarters of Europe’s convertible volume.

According to IHS Automotive, global convertible volume peaked in 2004, but as the market for convertibles shrinks, it does so especially for volume brand convertibles. In 2004, more than half the convertibles sold around the world were sold by mass market brands. But by 2015, that figure fell to just a third.

“We expect to see the premium brands continue to grow within the convertible market,” IHS’s Tim Urquhart forecasted a couple of years ago, “while mass-market OEMs that were not as successful with convertibles in previous years instead concentrate their resources toward popular and, in some cases, more practical, SUVs and crossovers.”

Sound familiar? Volkswagen is pulling resources out of the shrinking convertible market on its quest to generating 40 percent of its volume with, that’s right, SUVs and crossovers. That means no Mk8 Golf Cabriolet, even if there is no Eos with which it must compete for showroom space, and a burgeoning utility vehicle lineup instead. Atlas, new Tiguan, America’s long-wheelbase Tiguan, the old Tiguan lingering as the Tiguan Limited, the T-Roc, something America can have instead of the T-Roc. And more.

To be fair, Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess wouldn’t outright confirm that the cancelled cabrio was the next-gen Golf’s droptop variant. But given Volkswagen’s unwillingness to forge ahead with the Golf Cabriolet in the past, it’s all but certain the company will avoid doing so in the future.

In the United States, Volkwagen of America has reported one sale of a discontinued Eos and a 29-percent year-over-year increase to 5,132 Beetle Convertible sales.

[Image: Volkswagen]

Timothy Cain is a contributing analyst at The Truth About Cars and Autofocus.ca and the founder and former editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. Follow on Twitter @timcaincars and Instagram.

Timothy Cain
Timothy Cain

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  • Slap Slap on Sep 12, 2017

    I'm amazed at the number of convertibles I see with the top up on beautiful days. Often I'm the only one with the top down.

  • TDIandThen.... TDIandThen.... on Sep 12, 2017

    GIATA doesn't really sound like it's always the answer, I have to agree. The only other VW convertible I've been remotely attracted to besides the 80s Golf Cabrio, is from the 1960s. Convertible = MX-5 to a whole generation of new car buyers now in their mid-30s anyway.

  • Lorenzo Heh. The major powers, military or economic, set up these regulators for the smaller countries - the big guys do what they want, and always have. Are the Chinese that unaware?
  • Lorenzo The original 4-Runner, by its very name, promised something different in the future. What happened?
  • Lorenzo At my age, excitement is dangerous. one thing to note: the older models being displayed are more stylish than their current versions, and the old Subaru Forester looks more utilitarian than the current version. I thought the annual model change was dead.
  • Lorenzo Well, it was never an off-roader, much less a military vehicle, so let the people with too much money play make believe.
  • EBFlex The best gift would have been a huge bonfire of all the fak mustangs in inventory and shutting down the factory that makes them.Heck, nobody would even have to risk life and limb starting the fire, just park em close together and wait for the super environmentally friendly EV fire to commence.
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