After a Hot Start, Minivans Tanked in 2016

Timothy Cain
by Timothy Cain

There’s good news. And there’s bad news.

U.S. sales of minivans in 2016 rose 6 percent, year-over-year, to nearly 554,000 units.

Yet after shooting out of the blocks with a 23 percent increase through the first seven months of the year — partly a response to a slow start one year earlier — minivan sales tanked in the final five months of 2016.

Year-over-year, sales decreased in July, August, September, October, and December, plunging 14 percent over the five-month span. After claiming 3.5 percent of all new vehicle sales in the first seven months of 2016, minivan market share plunged to just 2.7 percent over the course of the last five months — a sudden and severe slowdown highlighted by December results in which every minivan nameplate reported declining sales.

A clear understanding of 2016’s early minivan success only comes about after a look back at 2015. A sharp downturn in total volume in the early part of 2015 was caused by a shutdown at Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ Windsor, Ontario assembly plant, as retooling for the Chrysler Town & Country’s Pacifica replacement was put into place. Through the first two-thirds of 2015, minivan sales had decreased 14 percent thanks to declines in seven of 2015’s first eight months.

Against that backdrop of disappointing results, the early figures in 2016 gave the impression of vibrant health, as minivan volume improved on a year-over-year basis in each of the first seven months. Minivans were on pace for well in excess of 600,000 sales, which would turn 2016 into the best year for minivan sales since before the recession.

In the end, however, minivan sales in 2016 were more numerous than in 2015 but marginally below the total achieved in 2014, and in 2012 for that matter, when minivans owned nearly 4 percent of the overall market. But why did 2016 go downhill?

The best-selling individual minivan nameplate in America, the aging Toyota Sienna, struggled all year to match the success of 2015, when Sienna sales had reached an eight-year high. In nine of the final ten months of 2016, Sienna sales declined (compared on year-over-year terms). Though refreshed for 2017 with an updated engine and a new transmission, the third-generation Sienna is entering its seventh model year.

Meanwhile, 2016 was the final full year for the fourth-generation Odyssey that Honda calls the best-selling retail minivan in America. Odyssey sales, not unexpectedly, fell to a five-year low in 2016, just prior to January’s Detroit debut of the 2018 Odyssey, with monthly volume declining in each of the last six months.

But it’s in Fiat Chrysler showrooms, where Chrysler and Dodge controlled 45 percent of 2016’s U.S. minivan market, where the decline was most keenly felt. Total FCA minivan volume plunged by more than 17,000 units in the final five months of 2016.

The transition from Town & Country (deeply discounted and fleet-oriented at the end of its tenure) to Pacifica (a far superior but more costly van) wasn’t likely to result in impressive sales numbers, at least not at first. But added to the difficulties of that transition was a Grand Caravan nosedive in the final third of the year. Grand Caravan volume had been pulled forward into the first two-thirds of 2016, as sales jumped 66 percent through August.

It remains possible that the latter portion of 2016, having put a real damper on the hot results from earlier in the year, do not accurately portray what’s to come in 2017. There’s an all-new Odyssey approaching, an updated Sienna fully on stream, a Kia Sedona that continues to build momentum, and a Chrysler transition period that’s been put to bed. The Town & Country is out. The Pacifica, including the Pacifica Plug-In Hybrid, is in.

True, FCA still has no idea what to do with the Dodge Grand Caravan. The Nissan Quest still won’t be a major draw. And the Mazda 5 has ended the chances of North American mini-MPV success.

But the minivan isn’t dead, even if 2016 wasn’t nearly as good to the people carrier category as we thought it’d be.

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.

Timothy Cain
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  • Koreancowboy Koreancowboy on Jan 27, 2017

    As a minivan enthusiast (vanthusiast?), I'm looking forward to the day where we get another minivan in our fleet. I still long for my dearly departed 1996 Ford Aerostar XLT that I had for all of May, and the first part of June last year. As mentioned before, my wife is one of those that can't possibly be seen in a minivan, as she would rather have a SUV/CUV. Fortunately, she's not wanting a motorhome-sized SUV like a Suburban LOL

  • APaGttH APaGttH on Jan 27, 2017

    ... The Town & Country is out. The Pacifica, including the Pacifica Plug-In Hybrid, is in... I think it is worth noting that at the dying days of Bertel as EIC, the prediction of utter failure of the updated GM truck architecture was made because of a flooding of the market of GMT900 vehicles at the end, and low initial uptake of the 9XX architecture. About 12 or 18 months later the "plan" revealed that it worked. There might be a lesson learned here for FCA as the T&C becomes the Pacifica. GMT900 had much lower prices compared to 9XX, one of the big things that was questioned. Yes, I get it, big money on the hood of the 9XX vehicles, all fullsize trucks play the big money on the hood game (and package deals, and owner loyalty programs, and regional discounts, and...) so MSRP on fullsizers is kind of BS anyway. It isn't a 1:1 to comparison exactly. One other point to make, it is damn hard to get people into a showroom in the first place when all you have to offer is left over failed midsizers, a very nice but outdated RWD near luxury (yes optional AWD) fullsizer, which people really aren't interested in buying in the first place, and a new minivan. Chrysler has bigger institutional and product mix issues that is probably hurting interest and floor traffic.

  • TCowner We've had a 64.5 Mustang in the family for the past 40 years. It is all original, Rangoon Red coupe with 289 (one of the first instead of the 260), Rally Pac, 4-speed, factory air, every option. Always gets smiles and thumbs ups.
  • ToolGuy This might be a good option for my spouse when it becomes available -- thought about reserving one but the $500 deposit is a little too serious. Oh sorry, that was the Volvo EX30, not the Mustang. Is Volvo part of Ford? Is the Mustang an EV? I'm so confused.
  • Mikey My late wife loved Mustangs ..We alway rented one while travelling . GM blood vetoed me purchasing one . 3 years after retirement bought an 08 rag top, followed by a 15 EB Hard top, In 18 i bought a low low mileage 05 GT rag with a stick.. The car had not been properly stored. That led to rodent issues !! Electrical nightmare. Lots of bucks !! The stick wasn't kind to my aging knees.. The 05 went to a long term dedicated Mustang guy. He loves it .. Today my garage tenant is a sweet 19 Camaro RS rag 6yl Auto. I just might take it out of hibernation this weekend. The Mustang will always hold a place in my heart.. Kudos to Ford for keeping it alive . I refuse to refer to the fake one by that storied name .
  • Ajla On the Mach-E, I still don't like it but my understanding is that it helps allow Ford to continue offering a V8 in the Mustang and F-150. Considering Dodge and Ram jumped off a cliff into 6-cylinder land there's probably some credibility to that story.
  • Ajla If I was Ford I would just troll Stellantis at all times.
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