For Uber, Are On-Demand Flying Cars the Next Frontier?

Henry Leung
by Henry Leung

One of my favourite childhood cartoons was The Jetsons, an animated sitcom where technology had transformed the world into a futuristic utopia. The intro of every Jetsons episode features the family commuting in a flying car.

Last Thursday, Uber published a white paper promising flying cars in the next decade. After 60 years as a cartoon, are The Jetsons becoming a reality?

The Dream

The 98 page white paper, titled “Uber Elevate – Fast-Forwarding to a Future of On-Demand Urban Air Transportation,” can be summarized in one sentence: “A network of small, electric aircraft that take off and land vertically will enable rapid, reliable transportation between suburbs and cities and, ultimately, within cities.”

The promise is a great one: “Imagine traveling from San Francisco’s Marina to work in downtown San Jose—a drive that would normally occupy the better part of two hours—in only 15 minutes.”

Uber is speculating the timing is right for three main reasons.

First of all, current routes are underserved by existing infrastructure and the proposed Vertical Take Off and Landing (VTOL) aircraft would appeal greatly for those with longer distance commutes. Secondly, recent technological developments have allowed VTOL aircraft to be quieter, faster, and cheaper than traditional VTOL aircraft like helicopters. Finally, VTOL infrastructure development would be significantly cheaper than traditional ground-based infrastructure.

Sounds fantastic?

The Reality

The problem: much of the technology and regulations do not exist. To be fair to Uber, the longer part of the white paper discusses these “market barriers” to entry.

The technological barriers are considerable. The proposed vehicle of choice, a VTOL aircraft does not exist commercially. The most similar aircraft would be the military Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey, which is much larger and not powered by the desired quiet electric drivetrain.

The electric propulsion technology desired faces all the same challenges as the current generation of electric cars. While Tesla has promised its Gigafactory will reduce lithium-ion battery cost by more than 30 percent, there are also issues with battery capacity, charging speed and durability.

In one of my past jobs, I designed an airport traffic control tower for a small airport in Boise, Idaho. The amount of processes and regulations required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was astonishing. There was a tendency to defer to historical design standards, and not innovate with ground-breaking ideas. For this new transportation system to work, the FAA would need to certify the proposed new VTOL aircraft, a process that could take as long as 20 years. In addition, there would be new regulations required for air traffic control with the huge amount of new low-altitude, low-speed aircraft.

Uber admits its plan is ambitious and would need “all the key actors in the VTOL ecosystem — regulators, vehicle designers, communities, cities, and network operators — [to] collaborate effectively.”

For Uber Elevate, Uber isn’t physically investing into any of the technology or infrastructure, but instead will be a “facilitator” encouraging the technology and using it in the same way they are using existing car technology.

Still, I have my doubts about Uber’s commitment to the technology.

In September, Uber launched a fleet of its in-house developed self-driving cars in Pittsburgh. Uber spent a considerable amount of time and effort on these autonomous cars and will likely have them market ready 3 to 5 years earlier than its competitors.

For Uber Elevate, there isn’t a similar investment in the technology. Talk is cheap. Until Uber (or someone else) makes a sizeable investment, The Jetsons flying car will just stay an animated fantasy.

Henry Leung
Henry Leung

When he's not writing about cars, Henry is driving his GTI to construction sites and transporting his kids to preschool. Henry is a professional engineer, road biker, marathon runner, and lives in Vancouver, Canada.

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  • George B George B on Nov 02, 2016

    If only someone would invent a way for a road full of cars to pass over a perpendicular road full of cars so that none of the lanes of traffic needed to stop. Cars "flying" over other cars, but on pavement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stack_interchange

  • 415s30 415s30 on Nov 08, 2016

    I hate Uber and Lyft drivers in SF, the pricks stop anywhere and block traffic at busy times, total dicks who think they can do whatever they want. With all the construction and issues in SF right now we don't need them making it worse.

  • The Oracle Well, we’re 3-4 years in with the Telluride and right around the time the long term durability issues start to really take hold. This is sad.
  • CoastieLenn No idea why, but nothing about a 4Runner excites me post-2004. To me, they're peak "try-hard", even above the Wrangler and Gladiator.
  • AZFelix A well earned anniversary.Can they also attend to the Mach-E?
  • Jalop1991 The intermediate shaft and right front driveshaft may not be fully engaged due to suspected improper assembly by the supplier. Over time, partial engagement can cause damage to the intermediate shaft splines. Damaged shaft splines may result in unintended vehicle movement while in Park if the parking brake is not engagedGee, my Chrysler van automatically engages the parking brake when we put it in Park. Do you mean to tell me that the idjits at Kia, and the idjit buyers, couldn't figure out wanting this in THEIR MOST EXPENSIVE VEHICLE????
  • Dukeisduke I've been waiting to see if they were going to do something special for the 60th Anniversary. I was four years old when the Mustang was introduced. I can remember that one of our neighbors bought a '65 coupe (they were all titled as '65 models, even the '64-1/2 cars), and it's the first one I can remember seeing. In the '90s I knew an older gentleman that owned a '64-1/2 model coupe with the 260 V8.
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