While BMW USA Sales Fade, the Most and Least BMW-like Models Are Bright Spots

Forget last year’s record sales achievements in BMW USA’s showrooms. Through the first six months of 2016, sales at the BMW Group’s BMW brand are down 9 percent in the United States, a first-half pace which suggests BMW sales will fall to a three-year low even as the overall new vehicle market continues to grow.

Not only is BMW’s car division off last year’s pace by more than 20,000 sales, or 18 percent, the brand’s three most costly utility vehicles — X4, X5, X6 — are down 22 percent. Yes, the overall car market is fading, but BMW’s 22-percent car decline is far worse than the U.S. auto industry’s 8-percent drop in car sales. And the 24-percent decrease in, for instance, sales of the BMW X5 stands in stark contrast to the 8-percent increase in the overall SUV/crossover market.

There are nevertheless bright lights in the BMW lineup.

Among passenger cars, the one car that most clearly exemplifies BMW’s old Ultimate Driving Machine credo, the 2 Series, is the BMW car that’s growing fastest. By far.

Among crossovers, the BMW which most flies in the face of everything the BMW cognoscenti value about BMW, the X1, is the BMW SAV division’s fastest-growing vehicle. By far.

ENTRY-LEVEL JOBS

The 2 Series’ success comes as the majority of BMW’s vast car lineup fades. Aside from the newly launched sixth-generation 7 Series (up 7 percent to 5,605 units year-to-date), the 2 Series is the exception to the declining car rule in BMW’s showrooms. 3, 4, 5, 6, i3, i8, and Z4 volume is collectively down 24 percent, a significant loss worth 24,163 sales.

The 2 Series, however, is on pace for 22,000 sales in 2016 thanks to a 70-percent year-over-year increase through six months. The 2 Series and its 1 Series predecessor averaged 10,000 sales between 2008 and 2015 and peaked just north of 13,000 sales in 2010.

These aren’t inconsequential numbers. The 2 Series is now outselling the Scion FR-S, Subaru BRZ, and Nissan 370Z combined; outsold the Volkswagen Golf GTI and Golf R combined in June; and easily outperformed the combined best efforts of the Alfa Romeo 4C, Audi TT, BMW Z4, Mercedes-Benz SLK, and Porsche Boxster/Cayman in the first-half of 2016.

Is the 2 Series the new 3 Series? Not quite. Though total 3 Series/4 Series volume is down 23 percent this year, the 2 Series’ bigger brethren are still outselling the 2 Series by nearly six-to-one. But the 2 Series is the rightful successor to the 3 Series of the ’80s and ’90s. While demand for more costly BMW cars fade, demand for this most BMW-esque of current BMWs is at an all-time high.

MARKS THE SPOT

A front-wheel-drive BMW isn’t half as heretical to the typical X1 consumer as it is to the BMW aficionado who memorized the gear ratios of the E30 318i. Remember the story in 2010 that said the overwhelming majority of 1 Series owners didn’t know their car was driven from the rear? It seems highly unlikely that those buyers will care about the origins of their vehicle’s architecture, particularly when the overwhelming majority of X1 buyers opt for four driven wheels.

Compared with the first-half of 2015, X1 sales in 2016 have more than doubled to 12,139 units. Although the X4, X5, and X6 are all failing to match last year’s volume, the X1 isn’t alone in its BMW SAV gains. The BMW X3 has produce a substantial 49-percent gain and is likely to end the year with its highest-ever U.S. sales output.

DIFFERENT STROKES

Outside of these two models, BMW USA lost 25,000 sales in the first-half of 2016.

The 2 Series and X1, the most BMW-like and least BMW-like models in the BMW brand’s lineup and the two BMWs with the lowest base prices, added 10,000 sales.

[Images: BMW USA]

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.