66 Months Of FCA's Restated, Corrected Sales Figures: Some Much Higher Now Than Before

Timothy Cain
by Timothy Cain

As recently as March 1, 2016 — on behalf of February 2016’s sales results — Fiat Chrysler US LLC touted a 71-month streak of year-over-year U.S. new vehicle sales improvements. Although FCA US stopped communicating the length of that streak by the beginning of the second-quarter, the company’s sales reports suggested that the streak through the end of June 2016 measured 75 months.

Figures released by FCA yesterday reveal that the streak of year-over-year improvements actually ended at 40 months in September 2013, when an originally reported 1-percent increase, it turns out, was actually a 3-percent decrease. On two other occasions during this 75-month span, FCA claimed sales had improved, year-over-year. August 2015’s 2-percent increase was actually a 1-percent decrease. Then, only two months ago, while FCA originally claimed a 1-percent increase, sales actually fell 7 percent.

The abbreviated streak, however, is only one side of the equation. (And it increasingly appears to be the least of FCA’s worries, as a grand jury has now been empaneled.) FCA’s sales reporting methods, highly questionable on both the retail and fleet side, frequently resulted in significant overstatements and, FCA claims, understatements, as well.

As a result, despite overstating sales by 8,991 units in 2012, by 731 units in 2013, and by 7,450 units in the first-half of this year, FCA says its restated, corrected sales figures released yesterday (displayed below) show that the automaker under-reported by 18,996 sales over the last 66 months.

The most significant overstatement? FCA originally reported 213,187 new vehicle sales in March 2016 but now claims only 199,764, a 13,423-unit difference.

On the other hand, only two months prior in January 2016, FCA’s original report of 155,037 new vehicle sales was apparently understated by 16,254 vehicles. FCA now reports 171,291 new vehicle sales in January 2016.

How did this happen, and what’s being done to fix it? When it comes to the former, this is being “looked into,” FCA said in a press release yesterday.

Jalopnik’s David Tracy: “But retail sales do affect Fiat Chrysler’s monthly sales reports, and what’s throwing them off is a process called “unwinding.” That’s what happens when a dealer sells a car, and then—because the customer backed out, or for another reason—puts the car back in its “unsold” inventory. Fiat Chrysler then gets its incentive back, and the warranty period is canceled until someone else buys the car. The problem is that Fiat Chrysler says it doesn’t consider these “unwindings” in its sales figures, because the company has assumed “that most unwinds are recorded shortly following the time the initial sale is registered in the NVDR system.” Typically, these factors resulted in FCA overstating sales.

As for the months of understated sales — the majority of the last 66 reports were, in fact, understated FCA claims — fleet reporting seems to be the issue.

“The other issue with Fiat Chrysler’s sales reporting process,” writes Tracy, “is their method of maintaining a “reserve” of fleet and “other retail sales.” This “reserve” means cars have been shipped, but not yet reported as “sold” in the monthly sales report. The company seems genuinely baffled by this process, saying keeping cars on “reserve” is “a matter of historical practice (going back many years before 2009 bankruptcy),” but that “the origin of this practice is unclear and is being looked into.” Fiat Chrysler goes on, saying the “not-in-use reserve” ranges in size each month, and results from a “subjective assessment at the month-end.”

The end result of FCA’s efforts to revise their tabulations do not lend great confidence to the proceedings. In FCA’s own words: “The objective of this new methodology is to provide in FCA US’s judgment the best available estimate of the number of FCA US vehicles sold to end users through the end of a particular month applying a consistent and transparent methodology.”

A European-style registration reporting system appears untenable given different practices across 50 states. FCA also seems to recognize that there are some in the automotive press, including yours truly, who require sales data “to opine about the state of the industry.” FCA understands, “that our decision to suspend monthly reporting would impact those constituencies and possibly may impair their perception, and in turn the public perception, of FCA US.” Indeed.

Impossible to judge amidst this new system are many of the sub-claims FCA made over the course of the last number of years, including a bevy of declarations based on the last six months alone which we explored last week. These new figures don’t break down FCA figures by brand or model. Thus, for example, we cannot conclude whether Jeep truly has set sales records in every month dating back to November 2013, or whether May truly was the highest-volume month in the history of Jeep, or whether February was the Ram brand’s best February since 2002.

Here’s hoping we can trust the figures FCA delivers in the future.

Month/YearRetail TotalFleet TotalNew TotalYOY % ChangePrevious TotalVolume DifferenceJanuary 201153,00618,66671,67225%70,1181,554February 201163,94728,95192,89810%95,102-2,204March 201179,58951,124130,71341%121,7308,983April 201176,68436,786113,47019%117,225-3,755May 201179,18834,012113,2008%115,363-2,163June 201184,26930,920115,18925%120,394-5,205July 201193,45224,476117,92826%112,0265,902August 201189,82638,098127,92428%130,119-2,195September 201190,52035,168125,68826%127,334-1,646October 201184,43131,344115,77528%114,5121,263November 201184,65133,338117,98959%107,17210,817December 2011110,07024,066134,13633%138,019-3,8832011 Calendar Year989,633386,9491,376,58227%1,369,1147,468January 201271,75332,900104,65346%101,1493,504February 201289,55847,053136,61147%133,5213,090March 2012114,34551,100165,44527%163,3812,064April 201298,06337,910135,97320%141,165-5,192May 2012110,39947,258157,65739%150,0417,616June 2012108,54034,823143,36324%144,811-1,448July 2012103,55315,829119,3821%126,089-6,707August 2012109,23134,056143,28712%148,472-5,185September 2012104,76832,905137,67310%142,041-4,368October 201295,49233,341128,83311%126,1852,648November 201298,98327,521126,5047%122,5653,939December 2012116,41327,002143,4157%152,367-8,9522012 Calendar Year1,221,098421,6981,642,79619%1,651,787-8,991January 201388,33729,823118,16013%117,731429February 201395,05447,209142,2634%139,0153,248March 2013126,42849,226175,6546%171,6064,048April 2013118,56040,010158,57017%156,6981,872May 2013131,79839,155170,9538%166,5964,357June 2013124,64128,486153,1277%156,686-3,559July 2013126,46110,108136,56914%140,102-3,533August 2013136,21130,393166,60416%165,5521,052September 2013101,66932,071133,740-3%143,017-9,277October 2013107,31533,713141,0289%140,083945November 2013114,54533,109147,65417%142,2755,379December 2013125,94129,374155,3158%161,007-5,6922013 Calendar Year1,396,960402,6771,799,63710%1,800,368-731January 2014100,94835,175136,12315%127,1838,940February 2014117,37144,234161,60514%154,8666,739March 2014150,70642,570193,27610%193,915-639April 2014135,84334,481170,3247%178,652-8,328May 2014158,37845,674204,05219%194,4219,631June 2014137,89036,082173,97214%171,0862,886July 2014149,98326,998176,98130%167,6679,314August 2014167,02425,204192,22815%198,379-6,151September 2014124,73641,486166,22224%169,890-3,668October 2014129,49141,017170,50821%170,48028November 2014133,85236,653170,50515%170,839-334December 2014142,90846,901189,80922%193,261-3,4522014 Calendar Year1,649,130456,4752,105,60517%2,090,63914,966January 2015111,72234,426146,1487%145,0071,141February 2015122,54643,972166,5183%163,5862,932March 2015151,09045,639196,7292%197,261-532April 2015147,26136,560183,8218%189,027-5,206May 2015165,25942,244207,5032%202,2275,276June 2015144,22844,206188,4348%185,0353,399July 2015159,80320,321180,1242%178,0272,097August 2015163,20927,678190,887-1%201,672-10,785September 2015146,62048,484195,10417%193,0192,085October 2015144,51554,870199,38517%195,5453,840November 2015129,48456,424185,9089%175,9749,934December 2015158,96358,117217,08014%217,527-4472015 Calendar Year1,744,700512,9412,257,6417%2,243,90713,734January 2016109,36461,927171,29117%155,03716,254February 2016126,70558,302185,00711%182,8792,128March 2016148,00851,756199,7642%213,187-13,423April 2016150,22041,339191,5594%199,631-8,072May 2016150,82442,295193,119-7%204,452-11,333June 2016147,03657,033204,0698%197,0736,996June 2016 YTD832,157312,6521,144,8095%1,152,259-7,450Total7,833,6782,493,39210,327,0709% *10,308,07418,996

Data source: FCA


* assumes correct figures between January 2005 and June 2010


[Image: FCA]

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.

Timothy Cain
Timothy Cain

More by Timothy Cain

Comments
Join the conversation
4 of 21 comments
  • Redapple Redapple on Jul 28, 2016

    Thank goodness ( BTSR Hellcat ban) It might have been funny the first 10-20 times. After 50, times it's childish and annoying to most adults.

    • Wolfinator Wolfinator on Jul 28, 2016

      Yeah, but now half of the threads are people talking about BTSR talking about Hellcats. Not much of an improvement. Actually a downgrade, because I had trained my brain to just scroll past BTSR.

  • El scotto El scotto on Jul 28, 2016

    In the name the name of all that is holy, how soon until we get he Alfa Giulia? Some Fiat Stradas or Toros for the cheap guys too. Other than that, let the Japanese, Koreans, and Ford fight it out for small cars

  • B-BodyBuick84 Mitsubishi Pajero Sport of course, a 7 seater, 2.4 turbo-diesel I4 BOF SUV with Super-Select 4WD, centre and rear locking diffs standard of course.
  • Corey Lewis Think how dated this 80s design was by 1995!
  • Tassos Jong-iL Communist America Rises!
  • Merc190 A CB7 Accord with the 5 cylinder
  • MRF 95 T-Bird Daihatsu Copen- A fun Kei sized roadster. Equipped with a 660cc three, a five speed manual and a retractable roof it’s all you need. Subaru Levorg wagon-because not everyone needs a lifted Outback.
Next