Cadillac ELR Sells Just 99 Units

> But the elegance and seamlessness of operation of the EREV architecture of the Volt is applied engineering on a higher plane, mechanically, electrically and in software, for a safe, mass-marketable automobile. I guess gas motors are passe, and electric motors are too easy, but cram the two together in the simplest way possible and it's frickin magic. These aren't bad cars, and the Volt's a decent value in electrics for people who need the generator, but the ELR is obviously overprice for the cost of two Volts. I also doubt anyone who calls these "most technically-advanced automobile on the planet" has ever sat in a Tesla, which actually feels like it's made by a tech company that happens to make cars.

"It is a car to make a point, for Cadillac, and hence it’ sales goals are low." What point is it making? That people who were thinking about a Cadillac might just as well buy the tech from Chevy and keep the remaining $40K?

@Phil 'Would it be possible to have a thread on the Volt or ELR informed by people who actually own or have otherwise driven them? The fiction bandied about regarding Voltec conveyances is often staggeringly distorted for, well, no discernible reason' Probably not possible here in the comments section. Nor would most people posting here understand how selling 2k units a year at $70k yields far more $$ than 6k units a year at $50k. Nice post...but the Prius guy will tell you how stupid you are...the guy who works at Enterprise will tell you that you are a moron...etc. Then, others will tell you how wildly successful the ELR would be at $50k without having a clue.

@sunridge place > Nor would most people posting here understand how selling 2k units a year at $70k yields far more $$ than 6k units a year at $50k. There are significant fixed costs to introducing any new model, even if it's an upscale rebadge. Consider learning how the arithmetic of that works when you're only selling a few.

@u mad scientist I work in tech and live in coastal California. I drove the original Tesla Roadster and have driven the big and middle-battery versions of the Model S. The Tesla has the veneer of advanced tech, but it's a relatively simple machine (good) burdened with impractically-limited range, at least for me. It's also not very luxurious for its price. The interior is only passably executed but it's OK. It's not hard to make an electric motor hitched to a big battery operationally seamless, as long as the battery has energy available. I am however glad the Tesla S exists and is helping to move the market forward. Phil

@Phil Ressler > The Tesla has the veneer of advanced tech The Tesla has mediocre tech by tech world standards but it might as well be magic in the auto industry. If electric cars are ever going to be economical & functional as a system they need to ditch large generators and use a charge/swap infrastructure. This means using tech to interface with "the grid" to make sure you don't run out of juice, etc. I really don't see anyone in the auto space (given how incompetent existing car computers have been) other than Tesla or a new upstart a la Google making this happen.

@u mad scientist So, is your point that they never should have made the ELR OR that they priced it wrong?

@sunridge place > So, is your point that they never should have made the ELR OR that they priced it wrong? They need to do the math in business planning to determine that X units need to be moved at Y price to be profitable (it's technically a curve you want to be on the right side of, but the specifics of the implementation generally preclude too much deviation from the given goal). I'm not privy to their plan, but if the volume is off by that much in the wrong direction it's probably safe to say their view of reality is so inaccurate it probably shouldn't have been approved.

@sunridge place Post 1: There are significant fixed costs to introducing any new model, even if it’s an upscale rebadge. Consider learning how the arithmetic of that works when you’re only selling a few. Post 2: I’m not privy to their plan You have no clue...you are just randomly posting on here...that was my point. You have no clue what the 'all in' cost of an ELR unit (over a few model years) is. Lets say its 50k per unit over a 3 year cycle. Ok... I price it high at $75k and expect to transact at $65k when its all done. I make $30 million moving 2k units a year. Under the same scenario, if I transact at $50k per unit and move 6k units a year I make nothing. My point was to: A. tell the poster that his thoughts on how great the Voltec system will not be accepted by typical posters here and they will tell him how stupid he is...that has already happened. B. People like you who have no clue will tell him how stupid this project is financially even though they admit that they are not 'privy to their plan' Thanks for proving my point.

@sunridge place > You have no clue…you are just randomly posting on here…that was my point. Your point is apparently that lack of access to their plans precludes any logical reasoning about its general success. This is so hilariously stupid it's not even worth mocking. > Lets say its 50k per unit over a 3 year cycle. I see you continue to fail at recognizing what fixed costs means. People who have no idea how the basic arithmetic works really shouldn't be telling others who do what can be done with math.

@sunridge place Perhaps, I should have written 50k per unit at 2000 units over 3 years transacting at $65k? Even though I thought that was obvious. Is that good enough? Please, tell us all how car companies build cars that sell in low volumes at high prices and still make money. We're dying to know. Are low volume high priced cars doomed!?!?!?

@u mad scientist I mostly agree with you. But we're not there yet and won't be for quite awhile. The EREV is a bridge, and an advanced engineering project for this time when we need one. It hasn't been widely embraced yet but it's a campaign, not a weekend event to get people to understand EREVs. Tesla can bring the simplified big-battery electric car with battery swaps and superchargers but the infrastructure for widespread adoption in a continental country is going to take more time and money than Tesla has patience or reserves for. Phil

@KixStart A Volt + $40K doesn't give you the ELR experience. Two Volts won't give you the ELR experience. The point Cadillac is making is that luxury cars can be both reasonably green and exceptionally involving, along with luxurious. And that the changing face of luxury isn't lashed to sheer power, accelerative sensation nor top speed. It's a direction we're headed whether we like it or not. Phil

@sunridge place Yeah; no doubt. -Phil

@sunridge place > Please, tell us all how car companies build cars that sell in low volumes at high prices and still make money. The asymptotic nature of a (constant/units) function as it approach zero implies a low volume car underselling its already low target by order of magnitude things will be in a world of hurt.

@sunridge place 'low volume car underselling its already low target' Wow! You know Cadillac's financial targets for the ELR based on how they priced it and what they expected to sell?!?!?!? Please share those...that was my original point. You don't and you said as much earlier.

@u mad scientist > The EREV is a bridge, and an advanced engineering project for this time when we need one. Except in an electric car with an add-on that turns gas into electricity, the interesting part is the electric car. > but the infrastructure for widespread adoption in a continental country is going to take more time and money than Tesla has patience or reserves for. We can always hope some other more forward looking country can take a shot at bootstrapping the infrastructure. Tesla's best shot at "success" is probably through acquisition a la tech biz.

@sunridge place > Wow! You know Cadillac’s financial targets for the ELR based on how they priced it and what they expected to sell?!?!?!? Yes, because crazy biz plans are even less likely to be signed off than stupid ones.

@sunridge place thanks for proving my original point agenthex dude....people will attack the poster for liking the Voltec system (having never experienced it) and people will attack the financial part (without having a clue)

@sunridge place > thanks for proving my original point agenthex dude sunridge place reasoning: these guys are obviously too incompetent to set a biz plan target anywhere near reality, therefore we can't know anything about how it's turning out.

@sunridge place ' these guys are obviously too incompetent to set a biz plan target anywhere near reality, therefore we can’t know anything about how it’s turning out.' Who are 'these guys' and what was their 'biz plan' target? Tell us please....we want to know?!?!?!?

@sunridge place This may be one of those few instances when the old GM approach of making up losses with more volume can kinda-sorta make sense. First begin with the assumption that the ELR doesn't actually have to make money in order to justify its existence. It's a low-volume exercise that is intended to test the waters for luxury hybrids, not a full blown commitment that will sink the company if it doesn't fly off of the shelves. Now note that it's being built in an existing facility with excess capacity. Building more of these things helps to make the Volt more profitable (or less of a loss generator) because the production costs of each unit decline as more units are built. Presumably, the R&D costs aren't so high, since the platform and drivetrain are borrowed. All told, the car may prove to be a breakeven exercise. I don't know how many years that they plan on keeping this around, but if it cost a few hundred million to develop and they can sell 10-15k of them, then it may help to monetize the costs of the existing platform just enough to support a business case.

@sunridge place > Who are 'these guys' and what was their 'biz plan' target? Now I'm curious if your problem is basic reading comprehension or multiplication: "With just 99 units sold (in 2 months), the Cadillac ELR is going to have a tough time hitting its 3000 unit target for 2014."

@sunridge place > but if it cost a few hundred million to develop and they can sell 10-15k of them, then it may help to monetize the costs of the existing platform just enough to support a business case. That's assuming they can hit the plan targets (the low volume forces the high price). I thought the premise of the article is they can't.

Phil's comment is why I think the ELR commercial with Neal McDonough is spot on for their target market. It doesn't matter if people who can't afford an ELR don't like the ad.

@sunridge place The 3,000 units is a guess based upon an article in Automotive News. IHS forecast 2014 sales of 2,200 units, and a GM spokesman said that the company's forecast was something above that.

@u mad scientist One of the benefits about the Voltec platform that people tend to miss is that there is nothing about it that mandates a gasoline generator range extender. The main battery is, essentially, in the spine and pelvis of the car. The range extender occupying space under the hood could be more battery, a propane engine, a fuel cell, whatever. In many ways it is a conceptual way station toward the skateboard-like monochassis EV platform concept GM showed in the early 2000s. It's a relatively easy platform to incrementally advance, on the twin rails of improving battery chemistry and alternate-fuel range extension, especially as battery energy storage density improves, allowing the range extension to be less robust than it is in the Voltec cars. Phil

@Ronnie Schreiber This is exactly what I was thinking after reading his post.

@Ronnie Schreiber > Phil’s comment is why I think the ELR commercial with Neal McDonough is spot on for their target market. It doesn’t matter if people who can’t afford an ELR don’t like the ad. Hopefully they didn't run the ad just for the ELR given how well it'll sell. It's more likely the ELR is intended as a tech halo for the brand image not unlike eg i8/918, done on the cheap w/ the volt as base. It appeals to jingoism which is more opiate for the masses than the person depicted in the commercial who should be smart enough to see through it.

@u mad scientist "Voltec" is a Prius with a much bigger battery, fewer seats than people expect, a much less sophisticated engine, a questionable reliability track record and a price tag that causes people to gasp.

@sunridge place At the moment, it's selling 600 units/year. Could that double? Even so, how many will they sell before Volt 2 comes out, which won't help sell the old tech ELR? I'm thinking 3-5K is about all they can expect to sell under almost any scenario

@u mad scientist “Voltec” is a Prius with a much bigger battery, fewer seats than people expect, a much less sophisticated engine, a questionable reliability track record and a price tag that causes people to gasp. Wow, that is just about the most ignorant way I've ever heard it described. For someone who claims to be a master at reading scientific articles et al... you sure don't have a clue about Voltec.

@sunridge place Sales could easily double that; remember it is new and the past couple months have hardly been "lets go shopping for an electric coupe" (or coupe in general) weather but I think anything more than ~1500-2000 is getting optimistic.

@agenthex- You don't personally know anyone with money, do you?

@u mad scientist If only kixstart wasn't essentially correct about the basics, poncho. The Volt is less practical, less roomy, fitted with an incredibly heavy, low tech iron block "range extender," and is much more expensive than a Prius. (kixstart does appear to be wrong about reliability, though - the Volt seems to enjoy relatively high quality scores, especially for a GM product. Hard to tell how much of that info is truly accurate, though, versus confirmation bias on the part of Volt owners.) Yes, Voltec operates differently than the Prius hybrid system, true. For some, the GM product has the potential to be much more efficient than the 'Yota within a very small range circle, and that's enough. Most Americans drive longer distances, though - and the longer the distance between power plugs, the less efficient the Volt gets. The tradeoff works for some, but for most people the Prius offers more real-world benefits. Then again, minivans make more sense for most CUV-driving soccer moms, too. Like them, Volt owners don't drive cars; they drive an image that is only tangentially associated with reality.

@u mad scientist fitted with an incredibly heavy iron-block -They would have saved 18 pounds by going with an aluminum block. The iron block isn't incredibly heavy. Volt owners don’t drive cars; they drive a cause and an image. -In reality any hybrid driver is driving a cause and image. A Prius makes no sense when a Corolla would actually be cheaper to own and run since you'll never get the price difference back in gas mileage. The Volt is less practical, less roomy -Lets be honest, practical and roomy is very subjective when it comes to one's needs.

Phil, thank you so very much for your insight and for sharing your thoughts and feelings about the Volt and the ELR. your comments are well written and display a knowledge of the product that one would be hard pressed to find elsewhere. your points are well made and my opinion of these two cars has dramatically improved as a result of your taking the time to detail so many characteristics of these automobiles. input like this makes TTAC what it is, a great source of information to both experts and novices. I appreciate the effort you took to tell us your viewpoints. thanks again sir. jd

The Volt-is-just-like-Prius-but-not-as-good fiction surfaces again, courtesy of Kixstart. The Prius and similar now-conventional parallel hybrids are internal combustion drivetrains, with full mechanical coupling between the engine and the wheels. Electric drive is an assist most of the time, and primary drive only a small percentage of rolling time. Even the plug-in Prius only modestly changes this ratio. In other words, in Prius, the ICE drive is essential; the electric drive is opportunistic. The Volt is an electric car. Nearly all the time under all conditions, the drive wheels are powered by an electric motor, whether the current is supplied solely by battery-stored utility electricity, or by the gasoline-fueled generator that is supplying to the battery enough energy to power the car and keep the battery buffer at its prescribed charge. The conditions under which the planetary gear mechanically couples the ICE generator to the drive wheels are so seldom encountered that such coupling occurs in a frequency ranging from infinitesimal to merely incidental. In other words, in Voltec, the electric drive is essential; the planetary coupling of the ICE to the drive wheels is opportunistic. This makes the two platforms vastly different to drive. The Volt's handling, ride quality and overall impression of quality are simply in a different, better league, than Prius. The serenity of electric drive, even when the gasoline generator is running, is smoother, with creamier delivery of torque in most driving conditions. And the entire structure along with the motion dynamics feel stronger and more stable in Volt. The Volt costs more than the Prius, and it feels like it should. I don't see any practical difference in the utility of the two cars. Both are hatchbacks. The Volt's rear seats are more comfortable than the bench in the Prius. Obviously, Volt owners don't need nor care about the lack of a 5th seating position. The fit, finish and overall quality of execution of the Volt is higher than in the Prius, and that's as it should be. I don't know where the allegation of questionable reliability for the Volt comes from. I see no evidence to support that. And in my case, I experienced infant failure of one internal component 48 hours after taking delivery. That was fixed and almost 15 months later not a single issue has arisen since. Rip the electric assist out of the Prius and you have a gas-driven econobox without off-the-line shove. Disable the planetary gear's coupling of the ICE to the drive wheels in the Volt and you have an EV that performs the same under nearly all circumstances. Most drivers would never miss it. The strength, rigidity and low center of gravity of the Volt, along with the unique power delivery of electric drive, transform the driving experience relative to the prosaic humdrum of a similar-size Prius. That alone makes it worth paying more for. Most people haven't bothered to experience this. When they do, Volt becomes vastly more comprehensible. Phil

@Buickman Happy to contribute, JD. I'm glad I could help. Phil

@Phil Ressler The differences between the Prius and the Volt are: - The relative sizes of the batteries. - The relative strengths of the various motors. - The bias towards electric operation programmed into the Volt. - The Volt has an extra clutch and rearranges the drive unit components. - The Volt sells poorly with a $7500 tax credit while the Prius PHV sells poorly with a $2500 tax credit. - The strength of the Volt Fan Club that thinks the Volt is radically different when, in fact, it's a parallel PHEV with less utility, a very high price tag and bad long-range fuel economy. "Rip the electric assist out of the Prius and you have a gas-driven econobox without off-the-line shove. Disable the planetary gear’s coupling of the ICE to the drive wheels in the Volt and you have an EV that performs the same under nearly all circumstances. Most drivers would never miss it." Until they hit the 38 mile limit. Disable the ICE in the Prius and you have a low power, short range version of the Volt. I've driven a Volt. I seemed nice. $40K of nice? No. $35K of nice? probably not. $27.5K of nice? Mmmmmaybe... but I'd already bought a Prius by then and the way I use my car, a Volt's mediocre CS mode fuel economy would cause me to use more gas (and premium gas at that). Fully warmed, conditioned and parked indoors the Volt ICE lit off as soon as it hit the 25F outside air. I've driven further on electricity in my basic 2012 Prius any number of times. As to the reliability, TrueDelta shows the 2011 Volt was quite good and later years are not nearly as good. The forums on GM-Volt dot com often include posts from people describing Volt problems, with subsequent commenters often accusing them of lying.

@KixStart You own a Prius. Now everything you say makes more sense.

@KixStart >when, in fact, it’s a parallel PHEV with less utility, a very high price tag and bad long-range fuel economy.>bias towards electric operation programmed into the Volt>Until they hit the 38 mile limit. Disable the ICE in the Prius and you have a low power, short range version of the Volt.>Fully warmed, conditioned and parked indoors the Volt ICE lit off as soon as it hit the 25F outside air. I’ve driven further on electricity in my basic 2012 Prius any number of times.>The forums on GM-Volt dot com often include posts from people describing Volt problems, with subsequent commenters often accusing them of lying.>$40K of nice? No. $35K of nice? probably not. $27.5K of nice? Mmmmmaybe…

@doctor olds > @agenthex- You don’t personally know anyone with money, do you? There are generally two kinds of people with money: those who recognize the fluke of their success, and those with the just world mindset. Warren Buffet for example despite a posterchild for capitalism is the former, all those you imply to know are probably the latter. Those I know with money are quite aware it's was a combination of natural born smarts but mostly lucking into the right company at the right time; had they ironically been more capable and gone on to do the actual hard work in their field the chance wouldn't have come to hit the lottery jackpot.

@KixStart Phil Ressler is a fanboi and Kixstart is being a total ass here. > The Volt is an electric car. Nearly all the time under all conditions, the drive wheels are powered by an electric motor > Until they hit the 38 mile limit. Disable the ICE in the Prius and you have a low power, short range version of the Volt. The Prius and Volt are actually closer in mechanics than can be inferred from their parallel/series marketing dichotomy: http://www.motortrend.com/features/editorial/1010_unbolting_the_chevy_volt_to_see_how_it_ticks OTOH the marginal benefits of a longer electric range shouldn't be understated. It naturally costs more as an electric car with backup gen but is functionally a step closer to the "real thing".

@u mad scientist your points would have more cred if you hadn't included the first statement. both contributors you single out are entitled to their respective opinions without personal ridicule. plus it's kinda tacky dude.

@doctor olds "There are generally two kinds of people with money" My experience tells me that there are all kinds of people at every socioeconomic level. If I can make a generalization about the wealthy people that I do know and have known, it's that they give away huge amounts of money and much of their time to charitable causes.

@u mad scientist > your points would have more cred if you hadn’t included the first statement. both contributors you single out are entitled to their respective opinions Perhaps, but I am also entitled to an opinion of what's going on. Incidentally that one statement explains the conversation better than any other.

@doctor olds > My experience tells me that there are all kinds of people at every socioeconomic level. Sure, the general nature of luck ensures some arbitrary mixing, but that doesn't preclude pointed distinctions within any group. In any case, even assuming arbitrary background, those smart enough to avoid squandering their fortune should be aware that they live above the little people these msgs cater to. > If I can make a generalization about the wealthy people that I do know and have known, it’s that they give away huge amounts of money and much of their time to charitable causes. Ponder a bit what a just world mentality implies on this matter.

@u mad scientist "Kixstart is being a total ass here." Total? I'd probably agree to "somewhat of an ass" but I don't think I've yet achieved "total ass."

@u mad scientist > Total? I’d probably agree to “somewhat of an ass” but I don’t think I’ve yet achieved “total ass.” You totally do if your thesaurus goes to 11 like mine.

@u mad scientist SayMyName, TrueDelta does have Volt stats. This link should show a Prius/Volt comparison: http://www.truedelta.com/Chevrolet-Volt/reliability-1048/vs-Prius-272 I *thought* that the 2011 Volt was represented there and I had thought it had a repair frequency similar to the same-year Prius but I'm not seeing it now... perhaps I misremember (or the respondent count was too low to show stats if you're not logged in). In any event, if you look you will see the 2012 Volt has a markedly higher repair frequency than the Prius and the 2013 Volt has a much higher repair frequency than the 2012 Volt.

@u mad scientist FWIW, I guess we're all half-ass anyway. carry on gentlemen... :)

@u mad scientist I just appreciate the Voltec for what it is and the driving experience distinctive of it. I don't know what a "fanboi" is if you think this makes me one. I've actually owned more Fords in my car buying life, so none of this is reflexive of brand attachment to Chevrolet. The Motor Trend dissection supports my point about how distinctly different Volt and Prius are from each other. The existence of a planetary gear may be a point of design intersection, but the roles of the ICE , motor and the battery are much different in Volt. It's not a dial of mere EV to ICE "bias." You cannot drive the Volt on piston power through the planetary gear alone. At no point does the car configure itself to do so. As you pointed out yourself, it is electric drive practically all the time. Phil

@u mad scientist "TrueDelta does have Volt stats. This link should show a Prius/Volt comparison" Yes. Click through to the nature of repairs and the first thing you see is this: Don't infer 2013 Chevrolet Volt problem frequency from what you see on this page. Many lucky owners have had no repairs, and their cars are not shown. In other words, it's not an incidence report. I think I even see my Dec 2012 report in there for infant failure of the transmission control solenoid. My Volt has been trouble-free since that 2nd day of ownership repair. An employee on my staff bought one on my recommendation. Not long after, he was nailed in an offset frontal collision. The EMTs: "This car probably saved your life." It's back on duty now. The Volt has a very strong passenger cell and crumple zones that work. Another 25 year old who bought after experience with my car developed a problem with the defroster and let that ride for several months because it wasn't annoying enough to bother. I haven't seen anything particularly inconvenient, disabling or frequent otherwise, among the several Volt owners I know. I like TrueDelta and participate, but Michael's statistical representation is still formative. The more important thing is that I have yet to meet a Volt owner who isn't intent on buying another EREV when they replace their car. Phil

@u mad scientist > The existence of a planetary gear may be a point of design intersection, but the roles of the ICE , motor and the battery are much different in Volt. It's not a dial of mere EV to ICE "bias." This is more a design choice than fundamental limitation. They put much more electric than gas in the Volt, so might as well use how that works best.

@Phil Ressler "Yes. Click through to the nature of repairs and the first thing you see is this: Don’t infer 2013 Chevrolet Volt problem frequency from what you see on this page." Right. You get the *frequency* of repair information from the previous page, where the complete group of owners has been considered. "My Volt has been trouble-free since that 2nd day of ownership repair." My Prius has been trouble-free since the first time I pushed the start button.

@Kenmore Kill American Exceptionalism? Wouldn't that be good for America? America might be able to move forward, when it realises there are dozens of countries that are not much different. American Exceptionalism worked when America was exceptional, this is no longer the case. It's no different to the French arrogance that some allude too or British 'exceptionalism' when Britannia rules the waves. Attaining the 'American' dream is easier in five nations other than the US now. In Australia they call it the 'Australian Dream', a quarter acre block with a house garage and white picket fence in the suburbs. Not much different to America, neither is NZ or Canada or the UK, even France. America is the greatest nation, but not necessarily the best. There is a difference. I think the dream is to leave our kids something better than we had. The US along with many other countries have lost this.

@Big Al from Oz It's called American exceptionalism because the dream is to do more than survive day to day, but rather enjoy life. Your description of the Australian dream sounds like the exact opposite of what Americans seek to assertain. How about 40 acres at $7,500 per, that's a much more reasonable amount. By your Australian dream, I can tell American exceptionalism is just as true today as ever.

@Hummer > It's called American exceptionalism because the dream is to do more than survive day to day, but rather enjoy life. It's called American exceptionalism because "exception" sounds better than a "culture" which everyone else also has. The very basis of the name is insular and ignorant and proud of it, ie better not on account of any merit but simply via faith in some ideal. Since it's not connected to skill which is hard to acquire, it can be populist despite the implied exclusivity. In short, if you can't make something of yourself, at least you're still American. That's what the ad sells: as long as you believe, you *are* that guy, not because you worked to achieve equivalent competence but because you're both American.

@Big Al from Oz Blather about "American Exceptionalism" is exceptionally funny in a thread about a car that only exists because the Feds stepped in and bailed GM out.